The Smart Thing Is To Just Keep The 2017 Nets Pick (No Trades)

[colincb]

FWIW, Steve Kyler who runs Basketball Insider and tweets a storm:

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA 4h4 hours ago: Organization not going to be that patient. They want to win now.

Addi Eggerts @AEggerts
@sross1961 @stevekylerNBA Celtics should keep the picks. Get either Fultz, Smith or Ball this year and could get Ayton 2018.

I've never felt Steve Kyler had a very good feel for either a) the Celtics or b) the quality of college players.

I'd be surprised if Danny keeps both picks myself.

[saltlover]

FWIW, Steve Kyler who runs Basketball Insider and tweets a storm:

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA 4h4 hours ago: Organization not going to be that patient. They want to win now.

Addi Eggerts @AEggerts
@sross1961 @stevekylerNBA Celtics should keep the picks. Get either Fultz, Smith or Ball this year and could get Ayton 2018.

I've never felt Steve Kyler had a very good feel for either a) the Celtics or b) the quality of college players.

I'd be surprised if Danny keeps both picks myself.

I wouldn't.  There are only a handful of players worth trading either of those picks for, and the vast majority will never be remotely available for trade.  I think his preference will be to trade a pick, because of the player he wants in return, but I am just not convinced that opportunity will arise.

[clevelandceltic]

For me Fultz is the number one pick and Tatum is two.

Fultz seems like a mixture of John Wall and Chris Paul but I always like to see how players run and he just floats, his ceiling seems to be the highest but Tatum seems to have the lowest floor of all the top tier players, he is very good rebounder and has Paul Pierce like traits to his game.

https://youtu.be/1mgr48gvtSc - Markelle Fultz (Washington) vs Oregon State // 1.7.17 // 20 Pts, 5 Ast

https://youtu.be/u7uGvXd3f00 - Jayson Tatum (Duke) vs Boston College // 1/7/17 // 22 Pts, 6 Reb

The only problem is we really need neither, if anything I'd much rather covert the 18 Brooklyn pick as there is some very good big men in that class.

Why doyou think we would need neither? Our frontcourt has a very hard time scoring. Tatum could be an excellent add.

[clevelandceltic]

CAn someone please explain why they like the 18 pick so much other than the idea that it could be a high pick?

[Boris Badenov]

CAn someone please explain why they like the 18 pick so much other than the idea that it could be a high pick?

I think you just answered your own question.

[footey]

Does anyone think there was a promise to Hortford that more was going to happen?

Whether that was to sign Durant or cash in some of our picks.

Obviously Durant effort, but beyond that what could they promise?

[footey]

It's worth pointing out that even a top 3 pick in a better-than-average draft is no guarantee.

Here's a recent list of draftees who were on par with the top 3-5 guys this year, or better, in terms of hype. I think this is a conservative list, in that we are still in the honeymoon phase with the 2017 class...a few of those guys will probably decline over the course of the year, as their games are scrutinized more closely.

KAT
Okafor
Russell
Wiggins
Parker
Embiid
A. Davis
Irving
Wall
Griffin
Rose
Beasley
Oden
Durant
Bogut
Marvin Williams
Deron Williams
CP3

I guess the question is, would you give up a random shot at one of these guys for Cousins?

By my reckoning there are three guys better than Cousins: CP3, Durant, and Davis.

A few guys are about equal: Rose, Wall, Irving, KAT. (For Rose, I'm talking about his pre-injury career as well as what happened since).

For all the excitement, the jury is still out on Embiid.

And the rest are either a little less valuable or a LOT less valuable. A Beasley-type outcome or an Oden-type outcome is a real possibility, you can't ignore it.

Either way, I think you have no higher than a 50/50 shot at matching or beating the Cousins outcome. And I think this probably overstates the odds, because there's no guarantee that someone like Josh Jackson will end up as a "tier 1" prospect. (Remember, Ingram was a "tier 1" who was downgraded by the end of the year).

Now, the thing is, the guys who do beat Cousins may be significantly more valuable, because of the importance of superstars. But it's worth noting that those guys have a total of zero rings between them.

Obviously you trade the pick if you can get a superstar like Cousins or Butler or George.

I, and most others on this thread, just dont see that happening.

Cousins yes. Butler or George? Top 5 protected with 2018 spillover.

[colincb]

FWIW, Steve Kyler who runs Basketball Insider and tweets a storm:

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA 4h4 hours ago: Organization not going to be that patient. They want to win now.

Addi Eggerts @AEggerts
@sross1961 @stevekylerNBA Celtics should keep the picks. Get either Fultz, Smith or Ball this year and could get Ayton 2018.

I've never felt Steve Kyler had a very good feel for either a) the Celtics or b) the quality of college players.

I'd be surprised if Danny keeps both picks myself.

I wouldn't.  There are only a handful of players worth trading either of those picks for, and the vast majority will never be remotely available for trade.  I think his preference will be to trade a pick, because of the player he wants in return, but I am just not convinced that opportunity will arise.

Depends on what Danny thinks about how close the team is to contending. LBJ’s 32 and I don’t see any clear cut successor. IMO the Cs are close enough to reasonably overpay for a guy like Butler if Danny can let himself lose a battle to win a war. OTOH, if they keep both BKN picks, the Cs are taking a longer view. In terms of contending, I don’t care who they draft, it will take the best part of their rookie contracts before they make a significant contribution to forging a contender unless they’re “transcendent” as Danny defines the term.

[OldSchoolDude]

CAn someone please explain why they like the 18 pick so much other than the idea that it could be a high pick?

There are a lot of really good looking big men in the 2018 draft.  These are the two players I would want the most.

DeAndre Ayton

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/deandre-ayton

Mohamed Bamba

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/mohamed-bamba


Also there are some talented wing players as well.  So if you like Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum this year and we draft Fultz or Ball instead, we could get a stud wing player in 2018.

Michael Porter

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/michael-porter

Kevin Knox

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/kevin-knox


An interesting note is the 2018 draft is not a guard draft it is a really deep big man draft with Nick Richards a 6’11 U Kentucky commit currently projected at  #23.
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/nick-richards

There really are a bunch of 6’10 – 7’ kids with skills in the 2018 draft. 

One dark horse PG/SG to keep an eye on is Luka Doncic
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/luka-doncic

He is currently playing serious minutes on Real Madrid’s A team and he hasn’t turned 18 yet!  He turns 18 in February.

The nbadraft.net highlights aren’t from Real Madrid’s A team, but these are:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sPxV4YGNa0
Luka Doncic Highlights vs Oklahoma City Thunder 3rd October 2016 NBA Global Games

This shows that he can hang with NBA talent at only 17 years old.  He even played some good defense on Westbrook forcing him into a missed jump shot. 

Here are some of his games playing against Euro league talent:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOvXrBV6T-M
Luka Doncic Highlights vs Zalgiris Kaunas 8th December 2016 Euroleague Clutch!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOzoHyCt_i0
Luka Doncic Highlights vs Anadolu Efes Istanbul 29th December 2016 Euroleagu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bq6EtO8wkaU&t=5s
Luka Doncic Highlights vs Baskonia 3rd January 2017 ACB

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHQWmsNcYAM
Luka Doncic Highlights vs CSKA Moscow 6th January 2017 Euroleague

[Ogaju]

to those who believe Danny's moves going forward depend on 'promises' that may have been made to Horford, I have this to say.

Horford indeed was a win now move, and the gamble seemed to be a bait for KD. The thinking seemed to be if you bring in Horford Durant would follow. That gamble failed. The question then becomes having lost one move do you change course or continue to double down on the lost move in order to redeem your position. I say 'doubling down' is a pretty risky move. Don't do it Danny. Take the long term approach. In the meantime you can thrill the fans with entertaining basketball that the present crew provides. If Horford is unhappy, you can ship him out for a younger prospect.

Win now at the expense of the future is too risky with Sixers building a juggernaut in Philly.

[Ilikesports17]

to those who believe Danny's moves going forward depend on 'promises' that may have been made to Horford, I have this to say.

Horford indeed was a win now move, and the gamble seemed to be a bait for KD. The thinking seemed to be if you bring in Horford Durant would follow. That gamble failed. The question then becomes having lost one move do you change course or continue to double down on the lost move in order to redeem your position. I say 'doubling down' is a pretty risky move. Don't do it Danny. Take the long term approach. In the meantime you can thrill the fans with entertaining basketball that the present crew provides. If Horford is unhappy, you can ship him out for a younger prospect.

Win now at the expense of the future is too risky with Sixers building a juggernaut in Philly.

to say the gamble failed seems a bit harsh.

I think even if you had a guarantee that KD goes elsewhere they would have still signed Horford.

Agree on all the rest. If anyone gambled on Horford bringing KD, it was Big Al. Danny has no responsibility to sell off future assets to appease Horford.

[mctyson]

3. The Pacers are on a 5 game winning streak, and the Bulls are winning as well. This probably makes the chances of PG13 or Butler getting traded go from 1% to 0.00001%. Honestly those are the other "marginally realistic" players I could have seen the C's be willing to deal the 2017 Nets Pick for to acquire (though I still don't think Butler is worth it but that's the price). The Price for any of PG13/Cousins/Butler will also cost you multiple other future picks, possibly two of Bradley/Crowder/Smart, in addition to the 2017 Nets Pick. Does that really improve this team long term if you give up that much in the first place?

What do you guys think?

No, it does not improve the team.  My point all along has been to stand pat, especially given that the BK pick might be #1.

[mctyson]

I'm coming around to the notion of making that pick untouchable.

My only hesistation is if bad teams hang around Brooklyn, come March and April, those teams will be shutting it down while Brooklyn will still be playing at 100% because they have no incentive to lose games. Granted, they aren't capable of many wins and could move Lopez, but you never know.

I think they are making a major mistake by not moving him.  He can get them a 1st round pick (if Korver is worth a late 1st, Brook Lopez is worth a lottery pick).

[mctyson]

FWIW, Steve Kyler who runs Basketball Insider and tweets a storm:

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA 4h4 hours ago: Organization not going to be that patient. They want to win now.

Addi Eggerts @AEggerts
@sross1961 @stevekylerNBA Celtics should keep the picks. Get either Fultz, Smith or Ball this year and could get Ayton 2018.

I've never felt Steve Kyler had a very good feel for either a) the Celtics or b) the quality of college players.

I'd be surprised if Danny keeps both picks myself.

I would not.  Just go back to draft night this years.  Everyone was saying that the Celtics pick was a lock to be traded.  Nothing happened, and Danny came out and laughed at some of the rumors.

They have a process for this stuff, and it is not influenced at all by the fans or the media who clamor for a star.  Danny is sitting on possibly the most valuable trade chip in the entire NBA.  Draft picks have more value than they ever had because of the cap increase.  I would say there is a 30% one pick gets traded. 

[moiso]

Does anyone think there was a promise to Hortford that more was going to happen?

Whether that was to sign Durant or cash in some of our picks.

He came here to try to win a title, so I don't know about a promise per se, but I'd imagine he wasn't sold on Markelle Fultz and DeAndre Ayton.

Every free agent doesn't sign with a team because they expect to win a championship.  The Celtics are young and on the upswing.  And I'm sure he knew they would attempt to sign Durant.  But he didn't sign here, and we don't owe Horford anything for that.  He's on a fun team in a great city and is being paid very well.   If Ainge can acquire someone to move the needle to championship contender he will do it.  Otherwise I hope he keeps the draft picks.  It's a fun team to watch and I don't see the rush to try to to add someone who isn't going to make us legit contenders.  I suppose it depends on how infatuated Ainge is with some of the prospects in the next two drafts.