Draft Tiers 2017

[Tr1boy]

People everywhere are sleeping on Markannen.  7 ft, 3 point shooting efficiency monster whos only weakness is strength, which is totally fixable.  Yes, he gets pushed around by the biggest centers, but he gets put on guards as a result and can totally hold his own there.

I like Markkanen quite a bit but he's not a top 5 pick in this draft.  He's not the next Porzingis.  He's average athletically.  He's quite fundamentally sound overall.  His shooting is excellent.  His rebounding and passing are solid but not exceptional.  His strength is a weakness.  He's not a shot blocker or rim protector.  He is not slow but he is not quick.  He had some difficulty with lateral quickness defending Miles Bridges drives.  He's not going to step out and defend the perimeter like Noel can.  If the Nets pick somehow falls out of the top 5 or so, I'd be quite happy if Ainge takes Markkanen and lets Olynyk walk.

Like another KO.

[tazzmaniac]

People everywhere are sleeping on Markannen.  7 ft, 3 point shooting efficiency monster whos only weakness is strength, which is totally fixable.  Yes, he gets pushed around by the biggest centers, but he gets put on guards as a result and can totally hold his own there.

I like Markkanen quite a bit but he's not a top 5 pick in this draft.  He's not the next Porzingis.  He's average athletically.  He's quite fundamentally sound overall.  His shooting is excellent.  His rebounding and passing are solid but not exceptional.  His strength is a weakness.  He's not a shot blocker or rim protector.  He is not slow but he is not quick.  He had some difficulty with lateral quickness defending Miles Bridges drives.  He's not going to step out and defend the perimeter like Noel can.  If the Nets pick somehow falls out of the top 5 or so, I'd be quite happy if Ainge takes Markkanen and lets Olynyk walk.

Like another KO.

A rich man's KO.  He's only 19 and at least as good as a 2 or 3 year older KO was.  He's also pretty consistent from game to game.  He plays more like an upperclassman not a freshman.   

[tazzmaniac]

Here's a good podcast with Derek Bodner and Rich Hofmann discussing most of the top prospects.  They're Philly focused but give a good assessment of the prospects strengths and weaknesses.  They're quite high on Fultz and said with some hesitancy that they'd rather get the #1 pick to take Fultz than get two of the other top prospects.   

The discussion of the prospects start with Fultz at 10:30.   
https://soundcloud.com/sixers-beat/86-nba-draft-deep-dive 

[JAuch12]

I'm an AZ fan who lives in Tucson so I've watched a lot of Markannen and have seen him up close a handful of times.  He is extremely skilled, great shooter (especially for a 7 footer), moves well, and actually has a lot more strength already than people seem to think.  The thing with him that I'm waiting to see is that alpha dog killer killer instinct.  It's not like a Jeff Green thing where he's not engaged or Interested...it's just that he doesn't act like he's the best player on the floor which he is.  It's like he  lets the game come to him to a fault, and he still averages 16 and 8.  I keep waiting for him to flip the switch.  If he does, I do think he's a top 5 pick.

[greece66]

@DefenseWinsChamps that makes sense lol

@saltlover you are right that most euro-prospects are irrelevant for our Brooklyn pick. My interest has more to do with me living in Europe than anything the C's might do next draft. My fave young Greek player (Dimitrios Moraitis) might not even declare for the 2017 draft.

And TP for the Giannis comment ofc.

PS I just saw the last comment about that. Adetokunbo is perfectly correct and closer to how his name is actually pronounced. This is the Nigerian spelling of his name and iirc this how he first appeared in articles about the draft. Antetokounmpo is the official  Romanization of the Greek spelling of his name (ie his name as it appears in the passport). For those interested in details, u becomes ou, d becomes nt and b becomes mp.

TP for the pronunciation guide.  And as for my interest in Doncic, have you followed him at all?  I'm very impressed with his Euroleague performance despite being only 17.

Doncic is really good, he has a very nice shot. To show some numbers, he has shot 18/43 3s  and 28/31 FTs in the Euroleague this season. And although he has a very good shot, he often gets in the paint to score: he is not particularly fast, but he is tall and also has a nice fake to use against taller opponent.

He is not afraid of getting into physical plays, for instance I've seen him going after offensive rebounds against much bigger players. He is tall for his position (2m 1cm) and strong for his age, both of which help him deal with more experienced opponents.


He started playing for Real at 16 years and 2 months; moreover, although he does not start, he often gets 20+mins in Euroleague games this season. For comparison, Mario Hezonja did not see similar mins in Barcelona until the 2014-15 season, when he was 19-20 yo. On top of my head, I cannot think of a player with a similarly impressive early start at one of Europe's best clubs. (By this I mean Real, Barca, CSKA, Maccabi, Oly and Panathinaikos which have shared among them most Euroleague final-4 appearances and championships the last twenty years.)

Although Madrid is predominantly a football city, Doncic is alreadya local celebrity: the fans an the media love him and the club has invested in his development. You can see that he plays with a lot of confidence. I am really interested to see how he will do under the extra pressure of the playoffs and hopefully the Final-4 in Istanbul to get a fuller picture.

All in all, there is a lot to be excited about.

[KG Living Legend]

Let's break down the 2017 draft and give your opinion on which prospects fall into which tier.

 Last year there was only 1 tier one player Ben Simmons, and one tier two player Brandon Ingram.

 This year promises to be much better. So who you got. I'm just going to do three tiers.

 Super Stud's

 Markelle Fultz.

  Not convinced he's a real winner or team guy yet. He's unquestionably the most talented player in the draft.

 Lonzo Ball

 my favorite player in the draft. A winner, a team first player, unlimited range. Jason Kidd with more Athleticism.

 Harry Giles.

 His status as a tier one player totally depends on his evaluation by doctors and how he finishes the season. 10 pts and 12 boards in 17 minutes in his first start was a great sign.

 Tier #2

 Dennis Smith JR.

 He's a Steven Francis clone. Unreal athlete at 6'1". Doesn't play defense IMO.

 Josh Jackson

 one of the most NBA ready prospects. Has it all tools wise. Height, length, athletism, defense, playmaking. Heck of a player. Great compliment player, but probably not a star.

 Jason Taytum

  Go to scorer potential. Deadly from 16 ft and in. Silky smooth lacks three point range right now.

 Tier #3

 Malik Monk

 Jr Smith with even more potential. Lights out shooter. 40" vertical. Super short wingspan, and he's an undersized two. Big concerns.

 Jonathan Isaac.

 Has as much or more upside than anyone in the draft. Can do it all at 6'10" however I'm just not a believer in the kid. Boom or Bust.

 De'Aaron Fox A blur of a point guard. Fastest player in the draft. Unreal speed and quickness.

 That's all folks. Who you got and where.

KG LL, are you basing your rankings on actually watching these guys playing, or mostly just reading scouting reports from Draftexpress?  Because I find the latter can be somewhat misleading, especially this early in the year.  Too early to put guys in tiers, unless you have scouted all their games on TV, and even then still premature.

 Footney. I'm a big believer in watching these kids play before I make any serious judgments.

 I've seen all the kids play that I commented on. It's not fair to the other prospects I haven't seen play, but hey life isn't fair.

[CelticsJG]

Lonzo Ball not that good. He is okay. Beige Rondo .

[KG Living Legend]

Lonzo Ball not that good. He is okay. Beige Rondo .

 Beige Rondo? What the hell does that mean?

 He actually is the anti Rondo. You know why. He doesn't hold onto the ball at all. He advances the ball as soon as he sees an opening.

 The kid is a treat to watch.

[RockinRyA]

Let's break down the 2017 draft and give your opinion on which prospects fall into which tier.

 Last year there was only 1 tier one player Ben Simmons, and one tier two player Brandon Ingram.

 This year promises to be much better. So who you got. I'm just going to do three tiers.

 Super Stud's

 Markelle Fultz.

  Not convinced he's a real winner or team guy yet. He's unquestionably the most talented player in the draft.

 Lonzo Ball

 my favorite player in the draft. A winner, a team first player, unlimited range. Jason Kidd with more Athleticism.

 Harry Giles.

 His status as a tier one player totally depends on his evaluation by doctors and how he finishes the season. 10 pts and 12 boards in 17 minutes in his first start was a great sign.

 Tier #2

 Dennis Smith JR.

 He's a Steven Francis clone. Unreal athlete at 6'1". Doesn't play defense IMO.

 Josh Jackson

 one of the most NBA ready prospects. Has it all tools wise. Height, length, athletism, defense, playmaking. Heck of a player. Great compliment player, but probably not a star.

 Jason Taytum

  Go to scorer potential. Deadly from 16 ft and in. Silky smooth lacks three point range right now.

 Tier #3

 Malik Monk

 Jr Smith with even more potential. Lights out shooter. 40" vertical. Super short wingspan, and he's an undersized two. Big concerns.

 Jonathan Isaac.

 Has as much or more upside than anyone in the draft. Can do it all at 6'10" however I'm just not a believer in the kid. Boom or Bust.

 De'Aaron Fox A blur of a point guard. Fastest player in the draft. Unreal speed and quickness.

 That's all folks. Who you got and where.

The tiers really are a bunch of nonsense, especially when they are done by Ford. While anyone could tell you that players like Lebron and Anthony Davis would be top level prospects. The difference between the tier 3 and tier 4 just haven't born out over time. Basically Ford has a bunch of people talking about something that an 8 year old could do as effectively.

Let me give an example of his tiers from 2014
Here is his tier 2
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh

Here is his tier 4 (note not tier 3, tier 4!)
Tyler Ennis

Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
Elfrid Payton
Adreian Payne
Kristaps Porzingis
James Young

On the whole the Tier 4 is probably better than the tier 2. That should never ever happen if these had any value. Of this list the only guy people may be real excited about from tier 2 is Randle. The best player is porzingis, the next best player is probably Lavine. Hood and Payton are both starters and really showing promising development. Heck even on the same team Hood is crushing Exum. Young and Payne are obviously terrible, but so is Vonleh. It really is just a load of nonsense.

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's a load of nonsense.  Firstly, you need to acknowledge that the "tiers" did I relatively good job of ordering how the draft would guy.  Tier 2 consists of players taken 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, and 12th.  Tier 4 had its highest draftee at 10, and most were after 15.  He says this is essentially done by a polling of NBA scouts, and you can see their consensus did a good job of predicting who would get drafted earlier.

You call Porzingis the best, and he was.  But remember, he chose to remove himself from this draft.  Scouts saw him as a mid-to-late first.  If they'd seen him as the top 5 pick he proved himself to be, he'd have come out in 2014 instead of 2015.

Scouts are human.  The tiers try to help create a scouting consensus.  They sometimes misjudge what a player will be, but they are a solid representation of how NBA talent evaluators view a specific player.  More often than not, these guys are right, but not always.  And the further down the draft you go, the more likely they are to make mistakes.

But the tiers, at least Ford's, are about projecting a guys future in the NBA. If they were actually effective they should have been able to tell Porzingas had NBA All-Star potential whether he was 18 or 19 at the time. It is not like we are talking about him when he was 12 years old. If you are saying that you want to project when guys will go drafted, I have no problem with draft projections. However the idea that Ford or anyone else can really distinguish before the draft who will turn into a starter and who will turn into an average bench player (I have already acknowledged that both he and an 8 year old could predict Lebron James would be a star without the tiers) just hasn't been supported in reality.

If you want to title it draft projections I have no problem with it. Just pointing out that Ford's tiers have consistently not been supported by he still churns them out every year and people accept them as gospel.

First of all its dumb to think that they could project how a player will do accurately. They have to factor in a lot of things, including current production and skills. In 2014 Porzingis was a very raw prospect that showed some skills. He was still a huge risk thats why he was in that tier. There were a lot of questions around him despite his intriguing skillset and body. Dont you think him answering some of those questions with another year worth of data didnt change the projection?

2nd, take out Porzingis (who withdrew) and Id still take tier 2 over tier 4 in a heartbeat.

[greece66]

@KGLL Porzingis had good reasons to withdraw from that draft

iirc he was diagnosed with anaemia, and it was only after he received treatment that his stamina and strength improved. Given what we knew back then, ppl were not unjustified to be hesitant about Porzingis as an NBA prospect.

[BlackCeltic]

Fultz or Jackson would both be nice dynamic SGs for us. Im happy with either of those 2. We are all set at PG and Giles is too risky.