Author Topic: Draft Tiers 2017  (Read 10729 times)

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Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #15 on: January 06, 2017, 12:49:07 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Let's break down the 2017 draft and give your opinion on which prospects fall into which tier.

 Last year there was only 1 tier one player Ben Simmons, and one tier two player Brandon Ingram.

 This year promises to be much better. So who you got. I'm just going to do three tiers.

 Super Stud's

 Markelle Fultz.

  Not convinced he's a real winner or team guy yet. He's unquestionably the most talented player in the draft.

 Lonzo Ball

 my favorite player in the draft. A winner, a team first player, unlimited range. Jason Kidd with more Athleticism.

 Harry Giles.

 His status as a tier one player totally depends on his evaluation by doctors and how he finishes the season. 10 pts and 12 boards in 17 minutes in his first start was a great sign.

 Tier #2

 Dennis Smith JR.

 He's a Steven Francis clone. Unreal athlete at 6'1". Doesn't play defense IMO.

 Josh Jackson

 one of the most NBA ready prospects. Has it all tools wise. Height, length, athletism, defense, playmaking. Heck of a player. Great compliment player, but probably not a star.

 Jason Taytum

  Go to scorer potential. Deadly from 16 ft and in. Silky smooth lacks three point range right now.

 Tier #3

 Malik Monk

 Jr Smith with even more potential. Lights out shooter. 40" vertical. Super short wingspan, and he's an undersized two. Big concerns.

 Jonathan Isaac.

 Has as much or more upside than anyone in the draft. Can do it all at 6'10" however I'm just not a believer in the kid. Boom or Bust.

 De'Aaron Fox A blur of a point guard. Fastest player in the draft. Unreal speed and quickness.

 That's all folks. Who you got and where.

Jayson Tatum  ;)

I agree with your assessment

Giles is in tier 1 though with an asterisk

Tier 4

Frank ntikilina
Og anunoby
Miles bridges
Markkanen
Cam Oliver
Grayson Allen

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #16 on: January 06, 2017, 01:14:05 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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My Tiers

1. Fultz

2. Jackson: If he starts shooting better I could see him challenging Fultz
3. Tatum: Reminds me of Paul Pierce, a technician on offense
4. Ball: Worry about his shot creation, but his basketball IQ and shooting will make him a winning player.
5. Monk: Lightning in a bottle. He's going to be an elite scorer in the league imo, but will he be able to contribute in any other facet?

6. Smith Jr.
7. Giles
8. Isaac
9. Anunoby

10. Fox
11. Ntilikina
12. Bridges
13. Markkanen



 TP Evan for actually following orders. You are probably right about Fultz being the only guy in tier 1.

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #17 on: January 06, 2017, 01:16:02 PM »

Offline footey

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Concentrating too much on college ball...are ther any good international prospects out there that we might miss on like Gianniis or Kristap.

Ntilikina is a guard version of Giannis. But he is a better shooter and has a higher IQ than Giannis at the same age.

I think he is a better prospect than Exum was a few years ago.

Which (sadly) is not saying much, given how Exum has turned out so far, although in fairness it is still too early to say given his injuries.

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #18 on: January 06, 2017, 01:18:18 PM »

Offline footey

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Let's break down the 2017 draft and give your opinion on which prospects fall into which tier.

 Last year there was only 1 tier one player Ben Simmons, and one tier two player Brandon Ingram.

 This year promises to be much better. So who you got. I'm just going to do three tiers.

 Super Stud's

 Markelle Fultz.

  Not convinced he's a real winner or team guy yet. He's unquestionably the most talented player in the draft.

 Lonzo Ball

 my favorite player in the draft. A winner, a team first player, unlimited range. Jason Kidd with more Athleticism.

 Harry Giles.

 His status as a tier one player totally depends on his evaluation by doctors and how he finishes the season. 10 pts and 12 boards in 17 minutes in his first start was a great sign.

 Tier #2

 Dennis Smith JR.

 He's a Steven Francis clone. Unreal athlete at 6'1". Doesn't play defense IMO.

 Josh Jackson

 one of the most NBA ready prospects. Has it all tools wise. Height, length, athletism, defense, playmaking. Heck of a player. Great compliment player, but probably not a star.

 Jason Taytum

  Go to scorer potential. Deadly from 16 ft and in. Silky smooth lacks three point range right now.

 Tier #3

 Malik Monk

 Jr Smith with even more potential. Lights out shooter. 40" vertical. Super short wingspan, and he's an undersized two. Big concerns.

 Jonathan Isaac.

 Has as much or more upside than anyone in the draft. Can do it all at 6'10" however I'm just not a believer in the kid. Boom or Bust.

 De'Aaron Fox A blur of a point guard. Fastest player in the draft. Unreal speed and quickness.

 That's all folks. Who you got and where.

KG LL, are you basing your rankings on actually watching these guys playing, or mostly just reading scouting reports from Draftexpress?  Because I find the latter can be somewhat misleading, especially this early in the year.  Too early to put guys in tiers, unless you have scouted all their games on TV, and even then still premature.

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #19 on: January 06, 2017, 01:20:04 PM »

Offline oldtype

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Based off absolutely no expert knowledge, I'd be happy with any of Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Taytum, or Giles.  (That last one only if he looks healthy, of course.)


Great words from a great man

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #20 on: January 06, 2017, 01:29:37 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Let's break down the 2017 draft and give your opinion on which prospects fall into which tier.

 Last year there was only 1 tier one player Ben Simmons, and one tier two player Brandon Ingram.

 This year promises to be much better. So who you got. I'm just going to do three tiers.

 Super Stud's

 Markelle Fultz.

  Not convinced he's a real winner or team guy yet. He's unquestionably the most talented player in the draft.

 Lonzo Ball

 my favorite player in the draft. A winner, a team first player, unlimited range. Jason Kidd with more Athleticism.

 Harry Giles.

 His status as a tier one player totally depends on his evaluation by doctors and how he finishes the season. 10 pts and 12 boards in 17 minutes in his first start was a great sign.

 Tier #2

 Dennis Smith JR.

 He's a Steven Francis clone. Unreal athlete at 6'1". Doesn't play defense IMO.

 Josh Jackson

 one of the most NBA ready prospects. Has it all tools wise. Height, length, athletism, defense, playmaking. Heck of a player. Great compliment player, but probably not a star.

 Jason Taytum

  Go to scorer potential. Deadly from 16 ft and in. Silky smooth lacks three point range right now.

 Tier #3

 Malik Monk

 Jr Smith with even more potential. Lights out shooter. 40" vertical. Super short wingspan, and he's an undersized two. Big concerns.

 Jonathan Isaac.

 Has as much or more upside than anyone in the draft. Can do it all at 6'10" however I'm just not a believer in the kid. Boom or Bust.

 De'Aaron Fox A blur of a point guard. Fastest player in the draft. Unreal speed and quickness.

 That's all folks. Who you got and where.

The tiers really are a bunch of nonsense, especially when they are done by Ford. While anyone could tell you that players like Lebron and Anthony Davis would be top level prospects. The difference between the tier 3 and tier 4 just haven't born out over time. Basically Ford has a bunch of people talking about something that an 8 year old could do as effectively.

Let me give an example of his tiers from 2014
Here is his tier 2
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh


Here is his tier 4 (note not tier 3, tier 4!)
Tyler Ennis

Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
Elfrid Payton
Adreian Payne
Kristaps Porzingis
James Young


On the whole the Tier 4 is probably better than the tier 2. That should never ever happen if these had any value. Of this list the only guy people may be real excited about from tier 2 is Randle. The best player is porzingis, the next best player is probably Lavine. Hood and Payton are both starters and really showing promising development. Heck even on the same team Hood is crushing Exum. Young and Payne are obviously terrible, but so is Vonleh. It really is just a load of nonsense. 
« Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 01:37:58 PM by celticsclay »

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #21 on: January 06, 2017, 01:38:30 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I always like to break prospects in an intersection of two aspects: risk and reward. Reward in my thinking is worth 9 points for the superstar prospects, 1 point for role play prospects. I determine how much points to assign based on my assessment of their feel for their NBA position and athleticism. Feel gets a total of 3 and athleticism gets a total of 3, and then they get is multiplied together. For example, a prospect with elite athleticism, but a poor feel for the game will only get 3 (1 times 3), but a prospect with good athleticism and good feel for the game would get a 4 (2 times 2).

For each big risk involved in a player (serious injuries, attitude problems, debilitating weaknesses, inexperience or lack of play at elite level, lack of average production), the point total is lowered 2. For each small risk involved (weakness, playing for a losing team, lack of elite production, physique etc.), I remove 1.

1. Fultz 8 - Elite potential (3x3), some questions around his drive take 1 off (although I don't think you have to take that off for him, I will for the sake of argument)
2. Ntilikina 6 - Elite potential (3x3), but skinny and inexperience take 3 off
3. Smith Jr. 5 - Great potential (3x2), but inconsistent shooting takes one off
4. Isaac 4 - Great potential (3x2) to be a star forward in the modern NBA, but skinniness and lack of production takes 2 off
5. Ball 4 - Great potential (2X3), but skinny and questionable shooting form take 2 off
6. Fox 4 - Great potential (3x2), but shooting is awful and takes 2 off
7. Bridges 3 - Great potential (3x2), but position in the NBA, inexperience, and shooting take 3 off
8. Giles 3 - Great potential (3x2), but injuries take 2 off and inexperience takes 1 off
9. Tatum 3 - Good potential (2x2), but shooting takes 1 off
10. Jackson 3 - Good potential (2x2), but shooting is questionable and takes 1 off

I know there will be disagreements about how I view players, but this method helps me to categorize players. I think it is helpful to think through what players would be the top players if every single one reached their potential. Then, from there, evaluate how significant their weaknesses are.

In other words, my tiers are

1. Fultz

2. Ntilikina

3. Smith

4. Isaac, Ball, Fox

5. Bridges, Giles, Tatum, Jackson

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #22 on: January 06, 2017, 01:42:14 PM »

Offline Chris22

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No more point guards.
I want someone at least 6'7".

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #23 on: January 06, 2017, 02:03:20 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Let's break down the 2017 draft and give your opinion on which prospects fall into which tier.

 Last year there was only 1 tier one player Ben Simmons, and one tier two player Brandon Ingram.

 This year promises to be much better. So who you got. I'm just going to do three tiers.

 Super Stud's

 Markelle Fultz.

  Not convinced he's a real winner or team guy yet. He's unquestionably the most talented player in the draft.

 Lonzo Ball

 my favorite player in the draft. A winner, a team first player, unlimited range. Jason Kidd with more Athleticism.

 Harry Giles.

 His status as a tier one player totally depends on his evaluation by doctors and how he finishes the season. 10 pts and 12 boards in 17 minutes in his first start was a great sign.

 Tier #2

 Dennis Smith JR.

 He's a Steven Francis clone. Unreal athlete at 6'1". Doesn't play defense IMO.

 Josh Jackson

 one of the most NBA ready prospects. Has it all tools wise. Height, length, athletism, defense, playmaking. Heck of a player. Great compliment player, but probably not a star.

 Jason Taytum

  Go to scorer potential. Deadly from 16 ft and in. Silky smooth lacks three point range right now.

 Tier #3

 Malik Monk

 Jr Smith with even more potential. Lights out shooter. 40" vertical. Super short wingspan, and he's an undersized two. Big concerns.

 Jonathan Isaac.

 Has as much or more upside than anyone in the draft. Can do it all at 6'10" however I'm just not a believer in the kid. Boom or Bust.

 De'Aaron Fox A blur of a point guard. Fastest player in the draft. Unreal speed and quickness.

 That's all folks. Who you got and where.

The tiers really are a bunch of nonsense, especially when they are done by Ford. While anyone could tell you that players like Lebron and Anthony Davis would be top level prospects. The difference between the tier 3 and tier 4 just haven't born out over time. Basically Ford has a bunch of people talking about something that an 8 year old could do as effectively.

Let me give an example of his tiers from 2014
Here is his tier 2
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh


Here is his tier 4 (note not tier 3, tier 4!)
Tyler Ennis

Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
Elfrid Payton
Adreian Payne
Kristaps Porzingis
James Young


On the whole the Tier 4 is probably better than the tier 2. That should never ever happen if these had any value. Of this list the only guy people may be real excited about from tier 2 is Randle. The best player is porzingis, the next best player is probably Lavine. Hood and Payton are both starters and really showing promising development. Heck even on the same team Hood is crushing Exum. Young and Payne are obviously terrible, but so is Vonleh. It really is just a load of nonsense.

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's a load of nonsense.  Firstly, you need to acknowledge that the "tiers" did I relatively good job of ordering how the draft would guy.  Tier 2 consists of players taken 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, and 12th.  Tier 4 had its highest draftee at 10, and most were after 15.  He says this is essentially done by a polling of NBA scouts, and you can see their consensus did a good job of predicting who would get drafted earlier.

You call Porzingis the best, and he was.  But remember, he chose to remove himself from this draft.  Scouts saw him as a mid-to-late first.  If they'd seen him as the top 5 pick he proved himself to be, he'd have come out in 2014 instead of 2015.

Scouts are human.  The tiers try to help create a scouting consensus.  They sometimes misjudge what a player will be, but they are a solid representation of how NBA talent evaluators view a specific player.  More often than not, these guys are right, but not always.  And the further down the draft you go, the more likely they are to make mistakes.

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #24 on: January 06, 2017, 02:14:49 PM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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Tier 1:
1.) Fultz- I see everything that the pundits see in the kid. He has a lightning quick first step, incredible size for his position (second only to ball, but with a great wingspan), amazing pull up game (best I have seen since Kyrie coming out), and can make crazy finishes around the basket that no one should be making at that level. On top of all that, every few games he will have an uber athletic dunk in traffic or a chase down block. Oh and the fact that he has gifted vision. Comp- An interesting mix of Harden/Russell/Kyrie, but mostly Harden.

2.) Giles- IF he stays healthy (and that's a big IF,) then he is definitely in the convo for the first overall pick. He has great size and athleticism, and a huge motor for rebounds. His athleticism reminds me a bit of Noel, but he is a very good rebounder, and flashed an outside shot in HS. He also flashed a handle, but as he is basically just starting he hasn't flashed that yet. Comp- Webber without the passing.

Tier 2:

1.) Tatum- I have mildly soured on him, but I still expect him to be a good pro. He has all the makings of a go to iso scorer, and he has elite level size for his position. Good handle, good mid range game, quick release, and is a midrange deadeye. Kills the boards, should be able to play the 3 or 4. Comp- A weird mix between Pierce and Jabari Parker.

2.) Jackson - Kid has got game, and has blossomed into a wonderful passer for his position. He has very good size, and has crazy hops. Something about him doesn't seem very strong to me. I am probably just nit picking, but he seems more vertical than explosive. Needs to really work on his shot, and his defense is kind of like browns (one minute you are like OMG hall of fame caliber defensive play, and the next its like "shaking my head.") Comp- Kawhi without the defense or 3pt shooting, but a good passer

3.) Ball- This is the one people on here will kill me for. I just don't see the Kidd comparison, except for the inability to be a dominant scorer aspect. Most of Ball's highlights are in the transition, or an utterly absurd contested 26 footer that he shoots from the hip. Granted he is gifted at passing the ball in a fast break, but you can't sustain that as your offense at the next level. Also his FT% is kind of awful for a guard, let alone one who in a half court set can basically only shoot 3s. I worry about his 3pt shot transferring because of that FT%. Comp- Very poor mans Kidd.

4.) Monk- Kid can flat out light it up. If he was 2 inches taller or didn't have t rex arms, he would be in tier 1 for me. Outside of Fultz, this kid is the best scorer in the draft right now. If he can kind of transition into a combo guard instead of a 2 (might be able to, they rarely use him as such due to Fox) he might be very successful in the league. Comp- Jamal Crawford in terms of offense.

Tier 3:

1.) Frank Ntilikina - Kid is very athletic, good defender, great size, and has big hands. Also looks to become a very deliberate, talented passer. Comp- Something between a Rondo and a Conley at Franks prime.

2.)Dennis Smith- He is crazy explosive and has a good handle. Literally doesn't care about playing defense, is actually kind of small (when you factor in his wingspan), and he has been rather disappointing shooting the ball from what I have seen. Comp- Poor mans Bledsoe

3.) Fox- I will put him here. I actually haven't spent much time admiring the kid. I hear that he seems to be a very good pure point. Very useful, yet I know how to admit my short comings.

4.) Isaac - Kid is enormous for a 3. Rail thin, but has a very good handle for his size. He also has been doing well shooting the ball. Tons of upside and risk here, but some team will jump. I view him as a similar level prospect to Ingram.

5.) Lauri M. - Looks to have a fairly advanced offensive game for his size. Is a very good shooter, and is another one of these Bigs who looks like he could play the 3 on offense, and the 5 on defense in the modern NBA. Needs to add a lot of weight. Comp- dragan Bender in a physical sense, but the exact opposite stengths coming in. Namely, skilled offensively, needs weight and defensive work.

6.) Bam Bam - Love his energy, hustle and athleticism. Great size and frame. Should be a 9-11 rb/g player, and seems to love dunking and blocking shots. If he can continue to flash a mid range open shot, he could be very good.


« Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 02:22:38 PM by A Future of Stevens »
#JKJB

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #25 on: January 06, 2017, 02:31:55 PM »

Offline greece66

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Concentrating too much on college ball...are ther any good international prospects out there that we might miss on like Gianniis or Kristap.

Ntilikina is a guard version of Giannis.But he is a better shooter and has a higher IQ than Giannis at the same age.

I think he is a better prospect than Exum was a few years ago.

I like Ntilikina, but this comparison does not work.

I think you underestimate how good Giannis´s passing and decision making were early in his career.

I´m also not sure what you mean by >guard version of Giannis.

Giannis played PG already in Filathlitikos.

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #26 on: January 06, 2017, 02:39:31 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Let's break down the 2017 draft and give your opinion on which prospects fall into which tier.

 Last year there was only 1 tier one player Ben Simmons, and one tier two player Brandon Ingram.

 This year promises to be much better. So who you got. I'm just going to do three tiers.

 Super Stud's

 Markelle Fultz.

  Not convinced he's a real winner or team guy yet. He's unquestionably the most talented player in the draft.

 Lonzo Ball

 my favorite player in the draft. A winner, a team first player, unlimited range. Jason Kidd with more Athleticism.

 Harry Giles.

 His status as a tier one player totally depends on his evaluation by doctors and how he finishes the season. 10 pts and 12 boards in 17 minutes in his first start was a great sign.

 Tier #2

 Dennis Smith JR.

 He's a Steven Francis clone. Unreal athlete at 6'1". Doesn't play defense IMO.

 Josh Jackson

 one of the most NBA ready prospects. Has it all tools wise. Height, length, athletism, defense, playmaking. Heck of a player. Great compliment player, but probably not a star.

 Jason Taytum

  Go to scorer potential. Deadly from 16 ft and in. Silky smooth lacks three point range right now.

 Tier #3

 Malik Monk

 Jr Smith with even more potential. Lights out shooter. 40" vertical. Super short wingspan, and he's an undersized two. Big concerns.

 Jonathan Isaac.

 Has as much or more upside than anyone in the draft. Can do it all at 6'10" however I'm just not a believer in the kid. Boom or Bust.

 De'Aaron Fox A blur of a point guard. Fastest player in the draft. Unreal speed and quickness.

 That's all folks. Who you got and where.

The tiers really are a bunch of nonsense, especially when they are done by Ford. While anyone could tell you that players like Lebron and Anthony Davis would be top level prospects. The difference between the tier 3 and tier 4 just haven't born out over time. Basically Ford has a bunch of people talking about something that an 8 year old could do as effectively.

Let me give an example of his tiers from 2014
Here is his tier 2
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh


Here is his tier 4 (note not tier 3, tier 4!)
Tyler Ennis

Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
Elfrid Payton
Adreian Payne
Kristaps Porzingis
James Young


On the whole the Tier 4 is probably better than the tier 2. That should never ever happen if these had any value. Of this list the only guy people may be real excited about from tier 2 is Randle. The best player is porzingis, the next best player is probably Lavine. Hood and Payton are both starters and really showing promising development. Heck even on the same team Hood is crushing Exum. Young and Payne are obviously terrible, but so is Vonleh. It really is just a load of nonsense.

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's a load of nonsense.  Firstly, you need to acknowledge that the "tiers" did I relatively good job of ordering how the draft would guy.  Tier 2 consists of players taken 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, and 12th.  Tier 4 had its highest draftee at 10, and most were after 15.  He says this is essentially done by a polling of NBA scouts, and you can see their consensus did a good job of predicting who would get drafted earlier.

You call Porzingis the best, and he was.  But remember, he chose to remove himself from this draft.  Scouts saw him as a mid-to-late first.  If they'd seen him as the top 5 pick he proved himself to be, he'd have come out in 2014 instead of 2015.

Scouts are human.  The tiers try to help create a scouting consensus.  They sometimes misjudge what a player will be, but they are a solid representation of how NBA talent evaluators view a specific player.  More often than not, these guys are right, but not always.  And the further down the draft you go, the more likely they are to make mistakes.

But the tiers, at least Ford's, are about projecting a guys future in the NBA. If they were actually effective they should have been able to tell Porzingas had NBA All-Star potential whether he was 18 or 19 at the time. It is not like we are talking about him when he was 12 years old. If you are saying that you want to project when guys will go drafted, I have no problem with draft projections. However the idea that Ford or anyone else can really distinguish before the draft who will turn into a starter and who will turn into an average bench player (I have already acknowledged that both he and an 8 year old could predict Lebron James would be a star without the tiers) just hasn't been supported in reality.

If you want to title it draft projections I have no problem with it. Just pointing out that Ford's tiers have consistently not been supported by he still churns them out every year and people accept them as gospel.

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #27 on: January 06, 2017, 02:42:18 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Concentrating too much on college ball...are ther any good international prospects out there that we might miss on like Gianniis or Kristap.

Ntilikina is a guard version of Giannis.But he is a better shooter and has a higher IQ than Giannis at the same age.

I think he is a better prospect than Exum was a few years ago.

I like Ntilikina, but this comparison does not work.

I think you underestimate how good Giannis´s passing and decision making were early in his career.

I´m also not sure what you mean by >guard version of Giannis.

Giannis played PG already in Filathlitikos.

I mean his body mainly. He takes long strides like Giannis and is learning to use his length well. Ntilikina's passing has really developed over the last 6 months. It's looking impressive.

I use comps mainly in athleticism (body type, movement, etc.) and game feel.

I don't love comps, but they can be useful.

What is your comp for him?

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #28 on: January 06, 2017, 02:48:52 PM »

Offline footey

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I don't recall guys posting threads that we had to take Giannis in 2013, before that draft. Would love for someone to post proof of that. There are a lot of bitter fans but unless you have proof that you were advocating taking him before that draft I am not sympathetic.

Call me ignorant, but I never heard of the guy until a year later.

Re: Draft Tiers 2017
« Reply #29 on: January 06, 2017, 03:01:42 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Let's break down the 2017 draft and give your opinion on which prospects fall into which tier.

 Last year there was only 1 tier one player Ben Simmons, and one tier two player Brandon Ingram.

 This year promises to be much better. So who you got. I'm just going to do three tiers.

 Super Stud's

 Markelle Fultz.

  Not convinced he's a real winner or team guy yet. He's unquestionably the most talented player in the draft.

 Lonzo Ball

 my favorite player in the draft. A winner, a team first player, unlimited range. Jason Kidd with more Athleticism.

 Harry Giles.

 His status as a tier one player totally depends on his evaluation by doctors and how he finishes the season. 10 pts and 12 boards in 17 minutes in his first start was a great sign.

 Tier #2

 Dennis Smith JR.

 He's a Steven Francis clone. Unreal athlete at 6'1". Doesn't play defense IMO.

 Josh Jackson

 one of the most NBA ready prospects. Has it all tools wise. Height, length, athletism, defense, playmaking. Heck of a player. Great compliment player, but probably not a star.

 Jason Taytum

  Go to scorer potential. Deadly from 16 ft and in. Silky smooth lacks three point range right now.

 Tier #3

 Malik Monk

 Jr Smith with even more potential. Lights out shooter. 40" vertical. Super short wingspan, and he's an undersized two. Big concerns.

 Jonathan Isaac.

 Has as much or more upside than anyone in the draft. Can do it all at 6'10" however I'm just not a believer in the kid. Boom or Bust.

 De'Aaron Fox A blur of a point guard. Fastest player in the draft. Unreal speed and quickness.

 That's all folks. Who you got and where.

The tiers really are a bunch of nonsense, especially when they are done by Ford. While anyone could tell you that players like Lebron and Anthony Davis would be top level prospects. The difference between the tier 3 and tier 4 just haven't born out over time. Basically Ford has a bunch of people talking about something that an 8 year old could do as effectively.

Let me give an example of his tiers from 2014
Here is his tier 2
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh


Here is his tier 4 (note not tier 3, tier 4!)
Tyler Ennis

Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
Elfrid Payton
Adreian Payne
Kristaps Porzingis
James Young


On the whole the Tier 4 is probably better than the tier 2. That should never ever happen if these had any value. Of this list the only guy people may be real excited about from tier 2 is Randle. The best player is porzingis, the next best player is probably Lavine. Hood and Payton are both starters and really showing promising development. Heck even on the same team Hood is crushing Exum. Young and Payne are obviously terrible, but so is Vonleh. It really is just a load of nonsense.

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's a load of nonsense.  Firstly, you need to acknowledge that the "tiers" did I relatively good job of ordering how the draft would guy.  Tier 2 consists of players taken 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, and 12th.  Tier 4 had its highest draftee at 10, and most were after 15.  He says this is essentially done by a polling of NBA scouts, and you can see their consensus did a good job of predicting who would get drafted earlier.

You call Porzingis the best, and he was.  But remember, he chose to remove himself from this draft.  Scouts saw him as a mid-to-late first.  If they'd seen him as the top 5 pick he proved himself to be, he'd have come out in 2014 instead of 2015.

Scouts are human.  The tiers try to help create a scouting consensus.  They sometimes misjudge what a player will be, but they are a solid representation of how NBA talent evaluators view a specific player.  More often than not, these guys are right, but not always.  And the further down the draft you go, the more likely they are to make mistakes.

But the tiers, at least Ford's, are about projecting a guys future in the NBA. If they were actually effective they should have been able to tell Porzingas had NBA All-Star potential whether he was 18 or 19 at the time. It is not like we are talking about him when he was 12 years old. If you are saying that you want to project when guys will go drafted, I have no problem with draft projections. However the idea that Ford or anyone else can really distinguish before the draft who will turn into a starter and who will turn into an average bench player (I have already acknowledged that both he and an 8 year old could predict Lebron James would be a star without the tiers) just hasn't been supported in reality.

If you want to title it draft projections I have no problem with it. Just pointing out that Ford's tiers have consistently not been supported by he still churns them out every year and people accept them as gospel.

Firstly, I'm not trying to defend Ford all that much.  But supposedly his "tiers" are polls of 10-12 scouts, and he tallies up the votes and places guys in the tier in which he received the most votes.  In that it is more of a consensus opinion of scouting professionals than a single person, I feel it properly is given a decent amount of credence as draft commentary.  Now he could be a fraudster and not speaking to anyone, but I'm going to take it at face value that he's just compiling the opinions of a group of scouts like he says he is.

And as for the "draft projection" aspect -- its the same thing.  If you think NBA teams evaluate guys, grade one as a future starter, another as a non-starter but rotation player, and choose the second, I don't know what to tell you.  The NBA draft is clearly an imperfect exercise, but the guys who become stars tend to go before the guys who become average starters, who tend to go before the rotation players, who tend to go before the deep bench guys, who tend to go before the ones who never make it.  There are notable misses in both directions, but it's not completely random.  And if you're asking NBA evaluators to create an ordered list of the draft prospects, and then a list of how the draft goes, they're probably going to hand you one list.