Draft Tiers 2017

[KG Living Legend]

 Let's break down the 2017 draft and give your opinion on which prospects fall into which tier.

 Last year there was only 1 tier one player Ben Simmons, and one tier two player Brandon Ingram.

 This year promises to be much better. So who you got. I'm just going to do three tiers.

 Super Stud's

 Markelle Fultz.

  Not convinced he's a real winner or team guy yet. He's unquestionably the most talented player in the draft.

 Lonzo Ball

 my favorite player in the draft. A winner, a team first player, unlimited range. Jason Kidd with more Athleticism.

 Harry Giles.

 His status as a tier one player totally depends on his evaluation by doctors and how he finishes the season. 10 pts and 12 boards in 17 minutes in his first start was a great sign.

 Tier #2

 Dennis Smith JR.

 He's a Steven Francis clone. Unreal athlete at 6'1". Doesn't play defense IMO.

 Josh Jackson

 one of the most NBA ready prospects. Has it all tools wise. Height, length, athletism, defense, playmaking. Heck of a player. Great compliment player, but probably not a star.

 Jason Taytum

  Go to scorer potential. Deadly from 16 ft and in. Silky smooth lacks three point range right now.

 Tier #3

 Malik Monk

 Jr Smith with even more potential. Lights out shooter. 40" vertical. Super short wingspan, and he's an undersized two. Big concerns.

 Jonathan Isaac.

 Has as much or more upside than anyone in the draft. Can do it all at 6'10" however I'm just not a believer in the kid. Boom or Bust.

 De'Aaron Fox A blur of a point guard. Fastest player in the draft. Unreal speed and quickness.

 That's all folks. Who you got and where.

[Androslav]

Early to say cause we dont know where we will land.
Lets say it is a top 5 pick. Market says that forwards and guards are currently at the premium.
DAs draft record says guards 1st, forwards 2nd.
With that said, Fultz then Fox, would make TR expendable  and it could help us in the future when we have to resign 3 guards.
Then it is Tatum and Jackson. Both look like future starters at the forward positions.

[Royrebirth]

KG you have been posting so much about Ball as the next Jason Kidd. While he may get there one day, I don't think he's close to being slated as the top tier prospect you make him out to be.

First, let's address some of his glaring weaknesses

1) Struggles against elite competition
- averaging 14 PPG / 4.5 rebounds / 6.5 assists / 4 turnovers against ranked teams this season
-- not bad numbers, but not numbers that indicate ability to elevate much play
- had 6 turnovers and 7 assists against UK, a team with NBA-level guards
-- indicative of how he might fare in a longer, much much aggressive league

2) Struggles with personal shot-creation
- if he's not shooting 3's, he can't create much offense for himself
-- okay handles, but average first step and first limits his ability to penetrate effectively
- shoots 3 FTs a game, averaging only 65% from the stripe
-- FT shooting is analytically a better gauge of shot-making ability on the next level
- shoots way too early in the shot clock and takes several ill-advised shots from much further than needed
- mechanics are not fundamentally sound
-- he's averaging 41% right now from 3, but how sustainable is that with a hitched shot like his?

Yeah, he's playing well and helping a historically good team become competitive again. But I think while his contributions are great, it's hard to overlook his flaws in considering his draft stock and potential. He's a great kid with swagger, highlight-like passing ability, and a great tendency to make his team better. They're doing great, but I also argue his team wasn't that bad to start with in the first place.

While his stats are comparable to Jason Kidd's, I don't think the trajectory to becoming a hall of fame is the norm, rather the exception. I'd put him solidly in tier 2 or even 3, despite the hype.

[TheSundanceKid]

I haven't paid any attention to college ball yet this year but I do know one thing. In the last few weeks there have been a lot of "x player is available" rumours that have come out. A lot of fringe playoff teams are testing the waters on whether their franchise players can gather a 2017 lotto pick. That is good news to me, it speaks for the excitement of this draft calss

[A Future of Stevens]

KG you have been posting so much about Ball as the next Jason Kidd. While he may get there one day, I don't think he's close to being slated as the top tier prospect you make him out to be.

First, let's address some of his glaring weaknesses

1) Struggles against elite competition
- averaging 14 PPG / 4.5 rebounds / 6.5 assists / 4 turnovers against ranked teams this season
-- not bad numbers, but not numbers that indicate ability to elevate much play
- had 6 turnovers and 7 assists against UK, a team with NBA-level guards
-- indicative of how he might fare in a longer, much much aggressive league

2) Struggles with personal shot-creation
- if he's not shooting 3's, he can't create much offense for himself
-- okay handles, but average first step and first limits his ability to penetrate effectively
- shoots 3 FTs a game, averaging only 65% from the stripe
-- FT shooting is analytically a better gauge of shot-making ability on the next level
- shoots way too early in the shot clock and takes several ill-advised shots from much further than needed
- mechanics are not fundamentally sound
-- he's averaging 41% right now from 3, but how sustainable is that with a hitched shot like his?

Yeah, he's playing well and helping a historically good team become competitive again. But I think while his contributions are great, it's hard to overlook his flaws in considering his draft stock and potential. He's a great kid with swagger, highlight-like passing ability, and a great tendency to make his team better. They're doing great, but I also argue his team wasn't that bad to start with in the first place.

While his stats are comparable to Jason Kidd's, I don't think the trajectory to becoming a hall of fame is the norm, rather the exception. I'd put him solidly in tier 2 or even 3, despite the hype.

TP to you buddy for showing all of the reasons why Ball makes me nervous. If we get a guard in this draft, it better be one who can get his own shot. And right now, ball cant do that unless it is a contested 26 footer that he shoots from the waist.

[clevelandceltic]

Yes but there are many things that he does well. I really do hope that he separates himself from every PG except Fultz so that it provides greater value for the pick. I personally am not interested in Ball.

KG you have been posting so much about Ball as the next Jason Kidd. While he may get there one day, I don't think he's close to being slated as the top tier prospect you make him out to be.

First, let's address some of his glaring weaknesses

1) Struggles against elite competition
- averaging 14 PPG / 4.5 rebounds / 6.5 assists / 4 turnovers against ranked teams this season
-- not bad numbers, but not numbers that indicate ability to elevate much play
- had 6 turnovers and 7 assists against UK, a team with NBA-level guards
-- indicative of how he might fare in a longer, much much aggressive league

2) Struggles with personal shot-creation
- if he's not shooting 3's, he can't create much offense for himself
-- okay handles, but average first step and first limits his ability to penetrate effectively
- shoots 3 FTs a game, averaging only 65% from the stripe
-- FT shooting is analytically a better gauge of shot-making ability on the next level
- shoots way too early in the shot clock and takes several ill-advised shots from much further than needed
- mechanics are not fundamentally sound
-- he's averaging 41% right now from 3, but how sustainable is that with a hitched shot like his?

Yeah, he's playing well and helping a historically good team become competitive again. But I think while his contributions are great, it's hard to overlook his flaws in considering his draft stock and potential. He's a great kid with swagger, highlight-like passing ability, and a great tendency to make his team better. They're doing great, but I also argue his team wasn't that bad to start with in the first place.

While his stats are comparable to Jason Kidd's, I don't think the trajectory to becoming a hall of fame is the norm, rather the exception. I'd put him solidly in tier 2 or even 3, despite the hype.

TP to you buddy for showing all of the reasons why Ball makes me nervous. If we get a guard in this draft, it better be one who can get his own shot. And right now, ball cant do that unless it is a contested 26 footer that he shoots from the waist.

[moiso]

KG you have been posting so much about Ball as the next Jason Kidd. While he may get there one day, I don't think he's close to being slated as the top tier prospect you make him out to be.

First, let's address some of his glaring weaknesses

1) Struggles against elite competition
- averaging 14 PPG / 4.5 rebounds / 6.5 assists / 4 turnovers against ranked teams this season
-- not bad numbers, but not numbers that indicate ability to elevate much play
- had 6 turnovers and 7 assists against UK, a team with NBA-level guards
-- indicative of how he might fare in a longer, much much aggressive league

2) Struggles with personal shot-creation
- if he's not shooting 3's, he can't create much offense for himself
-- okay handles, but average first step and first limits his ability to penetrate effectively
- shoots 3 FTs a game, averaging only 65% from the stripe
-- FT shooting is analytically a better gauge of shot-making ability on the next level
- shoots way too early in the shot clock and takes several ill-advised shots from much further than needed
- mechanics are not fundamentally sound
-- he's averaging 41% right now from 3, but how sustainable is that with a hitched shot like his?

Yeah, he's playing well and helping a historically good team become competitive again. But I think while his contributions are great, it's hard to overlook his flaws in considering his draft stock and potential. He's a great kid with swagger, highlight-like passing ability, and a great tendency to make his team better. They're doing great, but I also argue his team wasn't that bad to start with in the first place.

While his stats are comparable to Jason Kidd's, I don't think the trajectory to becoming a hall of fame is the norm, rather the exception. I'd put him solidly in tier 2 or even 3, despite the hype.

TP to you buddy for showing all of the reasons why Ball makes me nervous. If we get a guard in this draft, it better be one who can get his own shot. And right now, ball cant do that unless it is a contested 26 footer that he shoots from the waist.

He shoots from the hip.

[Chris22]

Put me down for Josh Jackson.

[KG Living Legend]

KG you have been posting so much about Ball as the next Jason Kidd. While he may get there one day, I don't think he's close to being slated as the top tier prospect you make him out to be.

First, let's address some of his glaring weaknesses

1) Struggles against elite competition
- averaging 14 PPG / 4.5 rebounds / 6.5 assists / 4 turnovers against ranked teams this season
-- not bad numbers, but not numbers that indicate ability to elevate much play
- had 6 turnovers and 7 assists against UK, a team with NBA-level guards
-- indicative of how he might fare in a longer, much much aggressive league

2) Struggles with personal shot-creation
- if he's not shooting 3's, he can't create much offense for himself
-- okay handles, but average first step and first limits his ability to penetrate effectively
- shoots 3 FTs a game, averaging only 65% from the stripe
-- FT shooting is analytically a better gauge of shot-making ability on the next level
- shoots way too early in the shot clock and takes several ill-advised shots from much further than needed
- mechanics are not fundamentally sound
-- he's averaging 41% right now from 3, but how sustainable is that with a hitched shot like his?

Yeah, he's playing well and helping a historically good team become competitive again. But I think while his contributions are great, it's hard to overlook his flaws in considering his draft stock and potential. He's a great kid with swagger, highlight-like passing ability, and a great tendency to make his team better. They're doing great, but I also argue his team wasn't that bad to start with in the first place.

While his stats are comparable to Jason Kidd's, I don't think the trajectory to becoming a hall of fame is the norm, rather the exception. I'd put him solidly in tier 2 or even 3, despite the hype.

 The Kids a winner. He's my favorite player. He shoots 65% from 2 point range.

 If you watched his last game he put up solid but not staggering numbers. However, number don't tell the whole story. He completely controlled the game.

 Not many players in the world have the eye discipline that Ball does.


 While I don't agree with this guy that Ball is an off the charts athlete. He is very explosive. Certainly a better athlete than Kidd Ever was. Kidd did have the edge in quickness though.

 https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=Do9Zh845xJs

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I always like to break prospects in an intersection of two aspects: risk and reward. Reward in my thinking is worth 9 points for the superstar prospects, 1 point for role play prospects. I determine how much points to assign based on my assessment of their feel for their NBA position and athleticism. Feel gets a total of 3 and athleticism gets a total of 3, and then they get is multiplied together. For example, a prospect with elite athleticism, but a poor feel for the game will only get 3 (1 times 3), but a prospect with good athleticism and good feel for the game would get a 4 (2 times 2).

For each big risk involved in a player (serious injuries, attitude problems, debilitating weaknesses, inexperience or lack of play at elite level, lack of average production), the point total is lowered 2. For each small risk involved (weakness, playing for a losing team, lack of elite production, physique etc.), I remove 1.

1. Fultz 8 - Elite potential (3x3), some questions around his drive take 1 off (although I don't think you have to take that off for him, I will for the sake of argument)
2. Ntilikina 6 - Elite potential (3x3), but skinny and inexperience take 3 off
3. Smith Jr. 5 - Great potential (3x2), but inconsistent shooting takes one off
4. Isaac 4 - Great potential (3x2) to be a star forward in the modern NBA, but skinniness and lack of production takes 2 off
5. Ball 4 - Great potential (2X3), but skinny and questionable shooting form take 2 off
6. Fox 4 - Great potential (3x2), but shooting is poor and takes 2 off
7. Bridges 3 - Great potential (3x2), but position in the NBA, inexperience, and shooting take 3 off
8. Giles 3 - Great potential (3x2), but injuries take 2 off and inexperience takes 1 off
9. Tatum 3 - Good potential (2x2), but shooting takes 1 off
10. Jackson 3 - Good potential (2x2), but shooting is questionable and takes 1 off

I know there will be disagreements about how I view players, but this method helps me to categorize players. I think it is helpful to think through what players would be the top players if every single one reached their potential. Then, from there, evaluate how significant their weaknesses are.

[Evantime34]

My Tiers

1. Fultz

2. Jackson: If he starts shooting better I could see him challenging Fultz
3. Tatum: Reminds me of Paul Pierce, a technician on offense
4. Ball: Worry about his shot creation, but his basketball IQ and shooting will make him a winning player.
5. Monk: Lightning in a bottle. He's going to be an elite scorer in the league imo, but will he be able to contribute in any other facet?

6. Smith Jr.
7. Giles
8. Isaac
9. Anunoby

10. Fox
11. Ntilikina
12. Bridges
13. Markkanen

[bopna]

Concentrating too much on college ball...are ther any good international prospects out there that we might miss on like Gianniis or Kristap.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Concentrating too much on college ball...are ther any good international prospects out there that we might miss on like Gianniis or Kristap.

Ntilikina is a guard version of Giannis. But he is a better shooter and has a higher IQ than Giannis at the same age.

I think he is a better prospect than Exum was a few years ago.

[tankcity!]

Concentrating too much on college ball...are ther any good international prospects out there that we might miss on like Gianniis or Kristap.

Ntilikina is a guard version of Giannis. But he is a better shooter and has a higher IQ than Giannis at the same age.

I think he is a better prospect than Exum was a few years ago.

That's not saying much at this point. Still too early to tell because of injuries etc., but he looks like a bust.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Concentrating too much on college ball...are ther any good international prospects out there that we might miss on like Gianniis or Kristap.

Ntilikina is a guard version of Giannis. But he is a better shooter and has a higher IQ than Giannis at the same age.

I think he is a better prospect than Exum was a few years ago.

That's not saying much at this point. Still too early to tell because of injuries etc., but he looks like a bust.

I meant that he is a better prospect than Exum was as a prospect before the draft. But we are agreed that he hasn't panned out yet.