Myth about Smart's ending of shot clock shooting

[celticsclay]

What is the love? People just don't want to see him written off for the season 12 games in.

[jpotter33]

I really don't understand all the "love" Marcus Smart is getting around here. Really don't. Besides his bad shooting habbits which is below league's average, can someone please name some other bball skill that he's average or bad at on the court? I have never watched him play. Thank you.   

I'm hoping this is sarcasm (genuinely difficult to tell online), because this bold part says it all right here.

[jpotter33]

Chris Forsberg seems to agree with the majority of posters on this subject.

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4724506/marcus-smart-prioritizes-winning-over-all-else?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

If you're looking for a highlight that helps sum up the priorities of Boston Celtics point guard Marcus Smart, just watch the Brooklyn Nets' final offensive possession of the first quarter on Wednesday night. After Brooklyn's Yogi Ferrell missed a pull-up jumper, Smart hauled in the rebound, quickly wheeled and launched a prayer the length of the court.

The heave -- which landed in a fan's lap in the first row of seats on the baseline -- wasn't officially scored a shot because Smart released the ball after the buzzer. But in a league where players go out of their way to protect their field goal percentage, Smart is the rare breed who prioritizes all things winning over his statistics.

Smart, who is badgered by casual observers for his shooting struggles, had another poor shooting performance Wednesday, making just 2-of-10 shots during Boston's 111-92 triumph at the Barclays Center. But Smart still managed to influence the game, particularly when the Celtics started to separate in the third quarter with an entrancing display of defense and playmaking.

Smart, 22, finished with 4 points, 8 assists, 8 rebounds, and 2 steals. He was plus-13 on a night when most of Boston's bench players worked to stay in positive numbers. For the season, Smart is averaging 9.9 points per game while shooting 35.9 percent from the floor. But his defensive talents and intangibles are a big reason why the Celtics won all three games on their recent road trip and have won six of their past eight overall.

There may very well come a time when the Celtics need Smart to step up and be a more consistent shooter and scorer. But what the stats suggest so far this season is that the Celtics are actually far more effective when Smart struggles to score and instead finds other ways to influence the game. Just look at his splits during Boston's wins and losses:

Smart Has Proved Key For Celtics
Marcus Smart's production in wins versus losses this season:
CATEGORY   WINS   LOSSES
Points   6.7   14.4
Rebounds   5.9   3.2
Assists   5.3   1.8
FG Pct.   27.3   45.2
3-point Pct.   18.2   44.8
Minutes   32.7   30.8
Plus/Minus   +70   -58
Maybe not surprisingly, Boston's defensive rating plummets to 91.3 points per 100 possessions when Smart is on the floor during wins this season. That's a number that's nearly five points lower than the league-leading 96.2 defensive rating owned by the Atlanta Hawks this year.

Smart's impact Wednesday was on full display late in the first quarter. The Nets' Joe Harris up-faked with a transition 3-point attempt, and Smart raced out to contest. When Harris tried to instead swing the ball to the corner, Smart leaped and batted down the pass like a defensive lineman. Smart then collected the ball, spun and had the presence of mind to feed a streaking Isaiah Thomas for a layup.

A short time later, pinned in the corner with Harris defending, Smart delivered a vicious spin move that allowed him to race into the paint, where he gave a little no-look handoff to a cutting Avery Bradley for a floater in the lane.

Late in the third quarter, as the Celtics started to pull away, Smart raced into three Nets players in transition near the free throw line, went behind his back with his dribble to protect the ball, then delivered another no-look feed to a racing Tyler Zeller for a layup.

Defensively, Smart was the usual antagonizer (just ask Trevor Booker, who found himself in a little barking match with Smart in the second half). Even when Smart got beat, he found a way to recover. Like when Harris went backdoor on a baseline cut in the third quarter and should have had an easy layup. Instead, Smart scrambled to not only block the shot but grabbed the rebound and got fouled by Harris while falling out of bounds.

Celtics coach Brad Stevens often notes how Smart simply makes winning plays. The Celtics might not have started this three-game road trip on the right foot if Smart didn't make the key hustle play before Al Horford's winner in Detroit. Teammates credited Smart for his vocal contributions before the Celtics rallied from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter in Minnesota on Monday.

After Wednesday's win in Brooklyn, Smart expressed satisfaction that the Celtics are slowly becoming the defensive-minded team that most expected at the start of the season. Boston was impossibly bad at the start of the year while navigating injuries, including the ankle injury that sidelined Smart for the start of the regular season. But over the past eight games, Boston's defensive rating is a league-best 95.7, a full point better than the nearest team in that same span.

Casual observers might never quite understand Smart, the No. 6 pick in the 2014 draft. Someone at your Thanksgiving dinner will grumble about his shooting if Smart's name is invoked. But Smart's impact goes well beyond his shooting percentage, and the Celtics' record might look a whole lot worse if not for his contributions.

[ThePaintedArea]

I will point out Smart is a great role player, probably like the 10th best player in his draft class.

Kindly name the 9 guys ahead of him? I also really hope one of those names isn't Aaron Gordon.

I don't care much about rating NBA players on a one-dimensional scale; better/worse just has a limited value when you're talking about a team game with a wide and diverse range of skillsets and ways that players contribute. 

But having said that, 2014 produced a very nice crop of pro ball players:

Andrew Wiggins
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Marcus Smart
Julius Randle
Elfrid Payton
Doug McDermott
Dario Saric
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
James Young
Rodney Hood
Clint Capela
Kyle Anderson
K.J. McDaniels
Joe Harris
Nikola Jokic
Jordan Clarkson;

For the record I think that Aaron Gordon is developing very nicely.

Several of those guys had early-career injuries that delayed their progress:  Jabari Parker,
Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, and Julius Randle; and Dario Saric has only just begun his rookie year.

I'm not too interested in the question of whether nine of those guys are "better" than Smart.  This is not fantasy basketball, after all.

[LarBrd33]

What is the love? People just don't want to see him written off for the season 12 games in.

Marcus came into the league with expectations of him being NBA-ready, eventually leading an offense, and having all-star potential.  He was a quality role player from day 1.   He made positive contributions despite his exceptionally weak offense.

Second year, he was still a quality role player who made positive contributions despite his exceptionally weak offense.

So far in year 3, he is still a quality role player who makes positive contributions despite his exceptionally weak offense.

Articles were written about his intangibles and impact as a rookie.  I remember listening to podcasts his rookie season with guys like Zach Lowe and Bill Simmons commenting on Smart's impact outside the stat columns.  Nothing has changed.   Whether you're looking at this statastical impact... which has been basically the same throughout his entire career:

Code: [Select]

                                                     
Season     FG%  3P%  2P%  FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PTS
2014-15   .367 .335 .410 .646 4.4 4.1 2.0 0.4 1.8 10.4
2015-16   .348 .253 .427 .777 5.5 4.0 2.0 0.4 1.7 12.1
2016-17   .359 .306 .409 .471 5.4 4.3 1.6 0.6 2.2 11.2
Career    .357 .297 .419 .706 5.0 4.1 1.9 0.4 1.8 11.2

... or if you're using the eye test... he's the same player.  Minimal improvement.

We're still only 140 games into his NBA career though.  Despite the fact we've seen no real improvement, there's still time for him to make an actual third-year leap.  I'm not going to get worried until after the all-star break.   When you change your shooting form it can take time until you start to see positive results.  Hopefully we see some uptick in his efficiency as the season progresses.   I haven't personally given up on Smart's all-star potential, but we need to start seeing some signs of that.  Simply making heady plays isn't going to outweigh his dreadful shooting enough to earn him an all-star appearance.

[ThePaintedArea]

kelly ,jerebko who SEEM to play hot potato when clock or defense is tight

There's always a trade-off between being assertive and playing the team game.  Maybe we'd like to know if there are more shot-clock violations with them on the floor, and especially with both of them on the floor.  Whatever the answer to that is, it's at least clear that both those guys make good decisions and don't take big risks - given their roles, that's probably exactly what you want.  I think Kelly is a seventh or eighth man, and Jonas is a tenth man on a contender.

[ThePaintedArea]

Last night, I think they flashed his statline as 4-8-8-2. Not flashy, but extremely impressive to me.

Good point - and not included there is: 1 turnover. 

I hear people carelessly equate "offense" with shooting, or even with FG%.  There's more to it than that! Even inside of the conversation about Marcus' shooting, the fact that he got to the line at a rapid clip last year, and shot a solid B-plus % in FT's, goes unremarked.  Nor does the fact that he took good care of the ball, even as they ran a lot of offense through him.

We could talk about plenty that's not in the boxscore when it comes to Brother Smart, but there's plenty that's IN the box with him that isn't being properly weighed.

[ThePaintedArea]

I haven't personally given up on Smart's all-star potential

I can't tell why anyone would have expected it, much less why anyone would hold out hope for it at this point.  It's not going to happen.  Marcus Smart can use the All-Star break every year to get some well-deserved rest and rehab.

... but we need to start seeing some signs of that.

This is even more astonishing.  Why?  Boston does not need him to do that.

Simply making heady plays isn't going to outweigh his dreadful shooting enough to earn him an all-star appearance.

I agree, as far as it goes.

[LarBrd33]

I haven't personally given up on Smart's all-star potential

I can't tell why anyone would have expected it, much less why anyone would hold out hope for it at this point.  It's not going to happen.  Marcus Smart can use the All-Star break every year to get some well-deserved rest and rehab.

... but we need to start seeing some signs of that.

This is even more astonishing.  Why?  Boston does not need him to do that.

Simply making heady plays isn't going to outweigh his dreadful shooting enough to earn him an all-star appearance.

I agree, as far as it goes.

I don't share your pessimism about Smart.   He does a lot of great things on the court.  The only thing missing has and continues to be his dreadful offensive ability.  That comes down to his inability to shoot.  His shooting percentages are worse than they were his rookie season.  He's shown no progress.  And he could very well end up like a Ricky Rubio or Rajon Rondo in that he never develops a quality shot.  Without Rondo and Rubio's elite passing ability, Smart might be destined to be nothing more than a niche role player best suited for a career off the bench.   

But I have not given up hope.  And the main reason I haven't given up hope is because Year 3 is typically a year where prospects make a leap into the player they will be long term.  There are many examples of players who suddenly found their grove during their 3rd season.  It's when a lot of players went from intriguing prospect to legitimate star.  There's always going to be aberrations and outliers... guys that make a leap later than expected... but Year 3 is that money year where guys figure it out.  Rookie season they are flying by the seat of their pants.  Year 2, they have a chance to calm down and learn from their mistakes.  Year 3, they have been through this rodeo twice already and now they are ready to make a statement.   So my hope is that Marcus suddenly figures out his offensive woes this season and makes that leap.  It might be a pipe dream.   This is the year we need to see some results though for that dream to live on.  And while there's always the rare chance he's a slow-burner like Chauncey Billups, I think if he continues to show minimal progress as this season progresses, the idea of Marcus Smart as a future star will basically be dead and we will need to start coming to terms that we used the #6 pick in a loaded draft for a long-term backup defensive role player.    I'm not ready for that yet.

[alewilliam789]

Can we please stop with the Marcus Smart All-Star talk? The only way that Smart ends up with an All-Star bid is if we have a team like the Hawks and 5 of our players get nominated into the All-Star game from the coaches. Even then Smart would have to average 14-15 ppg efficiently with at least 6-8 apg. Beyond that there is nothing that I've seen in Smart's game to suggest he will be a perenial All-Star.
Does that mean that he's not as valuable as a player? Absolutely not. What Smart does for us is act as the energy and glue that holds this team together. Whenever we need to get our heads out of our asses, guess what? Smart lights a fire in the huddle and injects that same fire onto his play onto the court.

I actually want to start Marcus Smart over Avery Bradley. Why? Because of how important it is to get off to a good start and the playmaking he brings to open up Thomas and Horford for open buckets. Bradley and Smart are both very good defenders, but I prefer Smart as a defender because his physicality and size/length are better when locking down opposing 2 guards who are often taller and can easily get shots over the smaller AB. You can then bring Bradley off the bench early to either lock down opposing point guards or you bring him off the bench with Rozier to go in and roast opposing second units on offense. I'm telling you it would be so nasty.

Starting Unit:
PG: Isaiah Thomas
SG: Marcus Smart
SF: Jae Crowder
PF: Amir Johnson
C: Al Horford

Bench Unit:
PG: Terry Rozier
SG: Avery Bradley
SF: Jaylen Brown/Marcus Smart
PF: Jonas Jerebko
C: Kelly Olynyk

[ThePaintedArea]

I don't share your pessimism about Smart. 

I wouldn't call it pessimism - but you were talking about the All-Star Game.  Despite a few exotic, token outliers - like, gasp, Dennis Rodman - that's for the group of players whose teams rely on them to score a lot of points, every night.  Marcus is NEVER going to be that.

Let me be clear here:  Marcus is talented and productive (ask his coach, who calls him their "sixth starter"), is on a steady upward arc, and is one of the core guys on a team that's headed to contender status.  But he's not going to be an all-star, EVER.

He does a lot of great things on the court. 

I agree.

The only thing missing has and continues to be his dreadful offensive ability.  That comes down to his inability to shoot.

I would agree that shooting is important; but he was hardly a "dreadful" FT shooter last year (.777), and with a FT rate of .314 he was actually doing a lot of damage with his shooting.

But the bigger picture on offense is that this is not HORSE; he sets killer screens, executes decisively, gets on the floor to retain possession, and takes good care of the ball when he's running the offense.  (Etc.)

Without Rondo and Rubio's elite passing ability, Smart might be destined to be nothing more than a niche role player best suited for a career off the bench.   

He's not a niche role player even now, and whether it's off the bench or not doesn't matter going forward; he impacts winning.

But I have not given up hope.

If you're hoping for an All-Star, you should give up.  But if you're hoping for a guy that is a core player on a contender, no need to hope: he's already arrived, and getting better.

And the main reason I haven't given up hope is because Year 3 is typically a year where prospects make a leap into the player they will be long term. 

Well, that's the old NBA rule of thumb, with the added proviso that bigs need another year; and the predictions are less secure in this era of younger rookies.

...a long-term backup defensive role player.

He's more than that now.

[ThePaintedArea]

Can we please stop with the Marcus Smart All-Star talk?

Done.  Settled.

I actually want to start Marcus Smart over Avery Bradley. Why? Because of how important it is to get off to a good start and the playmaking he brings to open up Thomas and Horford for open buckets. Bradley and Smart are both very good defenders, but I prefer Smart as a defender because his physicality and size/length are better when locking down opposing 2 guards who are often taller and can easily get shots over the smaller AB. You can then bring Bradley off the bench early to either lock down opposing point guards or you bring him off the bench with Rozier to go in and roast opposing second units on offense. I'm telling you it would be so nasty.

Point taken, good arguments.  But also consider: they're developing Smart as a secondary ball-handler, which is more needed off the bench, and if Smart starts they'll need him to spot up a lot around Thomas/Horford pick and rolls, and distance shooting is currently a weak point for him.

Perhaps having Bradley as a starter also maximizes the Celtics' speed advantage out of the gate, too...

[mgent]

Omg this is insane to me. First people here were complaining about Crowder?!?!? The dude shot 6-11 and was plus 13 for the game. It's funny how Bradley was plus 20, and Smart was plus 13, but yeah Smart is amazing and the energy right!!! I mean first, we played against a freaking scrub team. This is like a college basketball game for these players. Second, the Lbrrd bashing is uncalled for. Everything he is saying is pretty much true. I think it is pretty clear there is a lot of bias talk going around here.

The funniest thing was the end of shot clock talk for Smart. I mean KOZ HAS ALREADY POSTED STATS TO DISAPPROVE THIS MYTH.

I mean some people here just come up with stuff out of their butt. If you really want me to prove this, I can look for Koz's post.

My god, people now want Smart to start over Bradley. It's like I'm living in bizarro world. Smart has 8 assists tonight, and only tonight. It's not like he is averaging it. Also, he handles the ball a lot this year, and is averaging 33 minutes a game. So there isn't an excuse for him not to average it, but no. Let's bench Bradley for Smart?

Like what is going on? My head is about to explode because I really can't figure this out rationally. This is like Rajon Rondo all over again, except Rondo was a better player haha.

Me and Lbrrd are on an island I guess at this point. It really stinks to be on an island with Lbrrd.

I will point out Smart is a great role player, probably like the 10th best player in his draft class.

These things had me on the floor laughing at your logic.