Author Topic: It's time to start JJ over Amir  (Read 13199 times)

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Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2016, 10:07:19 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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I kinda hope we don't start KO simply so he doesn't qualify for the starter criteria which would worsen chances of keeping him after this season.

what is the criteria?
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

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Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2016, 10:10:37 PM »

Offline TrueFan

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I kinda hope we don't start KO simply so he doesn't qualify for the starter criteria which would worsen chances of keeping him after this season.

what is the criteria?
I feel like Olynyk is already at 15-17 mil per year. Just look at the guys who got paid 11-12 mil per year this summer. KO is easily a step up from those guys.

How much more could he possibly demand?

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2016, 10:10:52 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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I kinda hope we don't start KO simply so he doesn't qualify for the starter criteria which would worsen chances of keeping him after this season.

I think he ultimately ends up winning it, because he's simply the best option we have. I don't think he'll do enough to price us out of keeping him, though, unless we get another big addition, too.

But I think it's clear that we have to upgrade that spot in order to truly contend.
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Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2016, 10:14:25 PM »

Offline TrueFan

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I kinda hope we don't start KO simply so he doesn't qualify for the starter criteria which would worsen chances of keeping him after this season.

I think he ultimately ends up winning it, because he's simply the best option we have. I don't think he'll do enough to price us out of keeping him, though, unless we get another big addition, too.

But I think it's clear that we have to upgrade that spot in order to truly contend.
Olynyk may end up being more useful in the second unit with Smart and Brown. He adds a steady outside shot to a group who is inconsistent from outside.

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2016, 10:19:43 PM »

Offline walker834

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I agree having Rozier, Green and KO off the bench to go with Smart and jaylen is nice.  We can get Smart 25 minutes with jaylen staying at about 20 and the rest getting 15 or so.  Zeller and jerebko are really going to be sharing minutes at the end of the bench.  I hope Zeller steps up but Amir is getting like 18 minutes at a starter right now which allows us to spread it around with our bench. 

Having a starter play with the 2nd unit is also working. Bradley did a great job of this before we went with 5 full bench players at the end of the quarter. In the second half we used the whole bench for very short stretches.

Amir starting makes sense because he is playinig limited minutes.  He's being criticized for that when we are 3 games in and he is going to get going at times.

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2016, 10:26:30 PM »

Offline TrueFan

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I agree having Rozier, Green and KO off the bench to go with Smart and jaylen is nice.  We can get Smart 25 minutes with jaylen staying at about 20 and the rest getting 15 or so.  Zeller and jerebko are really going to be sharing minutes at the end of the bench.  I hope Zeller steps up but Amir is getting like 18 minutes at a starter right now which allows us to spread it around with our bench. 

Having a starter play with the 2nd unit is also working. Bradley did a great job of this before we went with 5 full bench players at the end of the quarter. In the second half we used the whole bench for very short stretches.

Amir starting makes sense because he is playinig limited minutes.  He's being criticized for that when we are 3 games in and he is going to get going at times.
I agree on the second unit. Stevens could also keep Crowder in there for Green to play the 4 if he wants to keep a starter in the lineup. Jerebko might be needed at the 4 also if that group can't rebound.

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2016, 10:53:40 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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I agree having Rozier, Green and KO off the bench to go with Smart and jaylen is nice.  We can get Smart 25 minutes with jaylen staying at about 20 and the rest getting 15 or so. Zeller and jerebko are really going to be sharing minutes at the end of the bench. I hope Zeller steps up but Amir is getting like 18 minutes at a starter right now which allows us to spread it around with our bench. 

Having a starter play with the 2nd unit is also working. Bradley did a great job of this before we went with 5 full bench players at the end of the quarter. In the second half we used the whole bench for very short stretches.

Amir starting makes sense because he is playinig limited minutes.  He's being criticized for that when we are 3 games in and he is going to get going at times.
I agree on the second unit. Stevens could also keep Crowder in there for Green to play the 4 if he wants to keep a starter in the lineup. Jerebko might be needed at the 4 also if that group can't rebound.

Jerebko is much better than Zeller, and much better than an end-of-bench player. He's one of the most versatile defenders on the team, and of their best 3pt shooters. I really hope he sees significant minutes.
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Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2016, 11:59:16 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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I kinda hope we don't start KO simply so he doesn't qualify for the starter criteria which would worsen chances of keeping him after this season.

I think he ultimately ends up winning it, because he's simply the best option we have. I don't think he'll do enough to price us out of keeping him, though, unless we get another big addition, too.

But I think it's clear that we have to upgrade that spot in order to truly contend.

It's not about his price tag but of the QO cost, it changes.

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2016, 01:32:32 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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I kinda hope we don't start KO simply so he doesn't qualify for the starter criteria which would worsen chances of keeping him after this season.

what is the criteria?

Starting 41 games, or playing 2,000 minutes in the regular season.

For reference the most he's playing in a season is 1423 minutes at 22 minutes per game. Given his injury history, seems like he might not reach it this season, but I can easily see a minutes increase as well.

Who knows. I don't think he'd accept a QO regardless, so the gesture is probably a moot point anyways.

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2016, 01:39:01 AM »

Offline TrueFan

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Olynyk is getting paid next year. He has too many skills. Granted he doesn't do one particular thing at a top star level but he's the type of player GMs will be willing to open their check books to. He's a big who can handle the ball, shoot from three and pass it well.

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2016, 02:03:31 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Absolutely. Agreed about JJ > Amir individually at PF + better fit alongside rest of starting unit.

Well you've always had a soft spot for JJ, still JJ has been terrible so far this season.

I'll also point out that we've been pretty good to start games, so...

Let's also point out that so far our real only struggle is rebounding... and Jerebko so far has been our worst rebounder other than Brown.

But if you want to move away from Amir, why not try Zeller over Jerebko? Not my preference, but still more deserving.

I'd also try Brown at SF, who's already playing in crunch time with our starters as it is, before trying Jerebko. Sucks rebounding, but is doing a lot of good stuff out there.

I'd also try Jordan Mickey at PF, who's one of our best rebounders, prior to defaulting into Jerebko...


Would Jerebko play better with our starters? Sure, but that should be true just about anyone, sadly his performance says that he should be eating the bench rather than being promoted to the starters.

1) Outisde of ORB%, which is easily explained by the differing games of Amir and JJ - JJ can shoot and Amir can't, JJ's rebounding percentages are pretty close to Amir's percentages. Further, once again, moving Horford closer to the basket will only increase his rebounding percentages and bring them more in line with his career percentages and what we saw in preseason. He's been forced to be more out on the perimeter due to Amir's deficiencies.

2) Zeller doesn't help any of the things I mentioned, because he's a pure center. He's probably worse than Amir defensively, and though he might provide a bit more spacing than Amir, he still clogs the lane and forces Horford out on the perimeter.

3) It's a joke to consider Brown as a starter with this lineup. That'd make us nearly a historically small-team, would kill our rebounding even more, and would put a rookie in the starting lineup guarding the Lebron's, Melo's, and KD's of the world when he's been pretty terrible with his perimeter defense already.

4) The same thing can be said about Mickey. It's funny that you're making fun of the idea of playing JJ more when you're advocating for playing Mickey, who can barely even get trash minutes for us.

It's convenient that you ignore how well JJ played with the actual starters in this whole conversation, and it's even more convenient that you ignore that this move goes way beyond the individual play of JJ. In fact, it has just as much, if not more, to do with the benefits outside of JJ's individual game as it does with his individual game.

I haven't ignored anything, I'm just not letting myself get swayed by a factor that holds true with just about everyone in the team, or one playoff series last season over current performance.

When Jerebko starts playing better, and better than his other teammates, come back at me.

Oh, you're not being swayed by the evidence that goes against the narrative you're pushing and is the very thing that I'm arguing? Hmm, I wonder why that is...

Come back at me when you have an actual argument with substance other than JJ not playing well in the first three games of the season.  ::)

It's clear that JJ is a much better fit next to Horford than Amir, whose offense is virtually non-existent at this point, and I've been beating that drum since this summer. Amir was a good fit for us last year as a starter, but he's not an ideal fit next to Horford. He'd be an excellent back-up big for us, but he's not starting material with us with Horford now.

I'm not painting a narrative other than Jerebko has been quite bad, and has been so since preaseason as well, this season. But for you this season so far is important as long as we don't measure Jerebko by it.

I'll elaborate now a bit now that I have time.

You're claiming "Amir whose offense is virtually non-existent at this point", but the same can be said by Jerebko. He could come out of that slump, but as you said... at this point... it's been non-existent as well, and worse than Amir's at that.

For more reference: Jerebko has the lowest PER currently on the team, 2nd worst TS%, 2nd worst Rebound %, the only player with a negative win share so far on our team, and the worst FG% of our team so far this season. Most if not all of these woes were also present during the preseason. By far he's been our worst offensive player this season, hope that changes, but based on his play so far I wonder if he even deserves playing time.

You alluded to a decreased rebounding from Horford as a potential reason for our poor rebounding, and that playing him at center might solve that. What it also ignores is that Amir is currently 4th in rebound percentage, and as mentioned above Jerebko is next to last. So I don't think a slightly improved Horford rebounding would make up for the gap that currently exists between Amir and Jerebko, again currently.

Keeping that in mind is why I suggested Zeller as a potential. Don't like his defense, but he could fit well with the starters (as seemingly anyone would), plus he's currently our leading rebounder. Not my first choice, but it could address that problem in some way, based on current play.

As for Brown, well he's a actually [dang] good sized for a SF and Crowder can easily move to PF there. I don't see the problem, it's a unit we've been using in the fourth quarter as it is. Brown is playing quite well. Only issue is that he's been a very poor rebounder, but as mentioned Jerebko hasn't been rebounding that much better as it is, but Brown has been exponentially better than Jerebko offensively. Plus he's another player who can create shot opportunities.

As for Mickey, I think Stevens is making a big mistake keeping him on the bench. He was one of our best performers in preseason. He one of our best rebounders and defenders, plus it addresses your problem of having to play Horford at PF.

And once taken into consideration how poorly Jerebko has been playing so far, any of the candidates above would probably get my vote.

But honestly I don't care either way, start Jerebko over Amir, whatever. I just find the notion of giving our worst peformer so far this season a starting job a bit repulsive in the face of it when in many ways I think he should be eating the bench fully right now until he can show otherwise once again.

In the end, we need to see more games... 3 games when our team is playing well, our first unit is playing well, seems like a poor reason to mess with it particularly to, once again, insert our worst performer so far.

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2016, 02:21:34 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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Absolutely. Agreed about JJ > Amir individually at PF + better fit alongside rest of starting unit.

Well you've always had a soft spot for JJ, still JJ has been terrible so far this season.

I'll also point out that we've been pretty good to start games, so...

Let's also point out that so far our real only struggle is rebounding... and Jerebko so far has been our worst rebounder other than Brown.

But if you want to move away from Amir, why not try Zeller over Jerebko? Not my preference, but still more deserving.

I'd also try Brown at SF, who's already playing in crunch time with our starters as it is, before trying Jerebko. Sucks rebounding, but is doing a lot of good stuff out there.

I'd also try Jordan Mickey at PF, who's one of our best rebounders, prior to defaulting into Jerebko...


Would Jerebko play better with our starters? Sure, but that should be true just about anyone, sadly his performance says that he should be eating the bench rather than being promoted to the starters.

1) Outisde of ORB%, which is easily explained by the differing games of Amir and JJ - JJ can shoot and Amir can't, JJ's rebounding percentages are pretty close to Amir's percentages. Further, once again, moving Horford closer to the basket will only increase his rebounding percentages and bring them more in line with his career percentages and what we saw in preseason. He's been forced to be more out on the perimeter due to Amir's deficiencies.

2) Zeller doesn't help any of the things I mentioned, because he's a pure center. He's probably worse than Amir defensively, and though he might provide a bit more spacing than Amir, he still clogs the lane and forces Horford out on the perimeter.

3) It's a joke to consider Brown as a starter with this lineup. That'd make us nearly a historically small-team, would kill our rebounding even more, and would put a rookie in the starting lineup guarding the Lebron's, Melo's, and KD's of the world when he's been pretty terrible with his perimeter defense already.

4) The same thing can be said about Mickey. It's funny that you're making fun of the idea of playing JJ more when you're advocating for playing Mickey, who can barely even get trash minutes for us.

It's convenient that you ignore how well JJ played with the actual starters in this whole conversation, and it's even more convenient that you ignore that this move goes way beyond the individual play of JJ. In fact, it has just as much, if not more, to do with the benefits outside of JJ's individual game as it does with his individual game.

I haven't ignored anything, I'm just not letting myself get swayed by a factor that holds true with just about everyone in the team, or one playoff series last season over current performance.

When Jerebko starts playing better, and better than his other teammates, come back at me.

Oh, you're not being swayed by the evidence that goes against the narrative you're pushing and is the very thing that I'm arguing? Hmm, I wonder why that is...

Come back at me when you have an actual argument with substance other than JJ not playing well in the first three games of the season.  ::)

It's clear that JJ is a much better fit next to Horford than Amir, whose offense is virtually non-existent at this point, and I've been beating that drum since this summer. Amir was a good fit for us last year as a starter, but he's not an ideal fit next to Horford. He'd be an excellent back-up big for us, but he's not starting material with us with Horford now.

I'm not painting a narrative other than Jerebko has been quite bad, and has been so since preaseason as well, this season. But for you this season so far is important as long as we don't measure Jerebko by it.

I'll elaborate now a bit now that I have time.

You're claiming "Amir whose offense is virtually non-existent at this point", but the same can be said by Jerebko. He could come out of that slump, but as you said... at this point... it's been non-existent as well, and worse than Amir's at that.

For more reference: Jerebko has the lowest PER currently on the team, 2nd worst TS%, 2nd worst Rebound %, the only player with a negative win share so far on our team, and the worst FG% of our team so far this season. Most if not all of these woes were also present during the preseason. By far he's been our worst offensive player this season, hope that changes, but based on his play so far I wonder if he even deserves playing time.

You alluded to a decreased rebounding from Horford as a potential reason for our poor rebounding, and that playing him at center might solve that. What it also ignores is that Amir is currently 4th in rebound percentage, and as mentioned above Jerebko is next to last. So I don't think a slightly improved Horford rebounding would make up for the gap that currently exists between Amir and Jerebko, again currently.

Keeping that in mind is why I suggested Zeller as a potential. Don't like his defense, but he could fit well with the starters (as seemingly anyone would), plus he's currently our leading rebounder. Not my first choice, but it could address that problem in some way, based on current play.

As for Brown, well he's a actually [dang] good sized for a SF and Crowder can easily move to PF there. I don't see the problem, it's a unit we've been using in the fourth quarter as it is. Brown is playing quite well. Only issue is that he's been a very poor rebounder, but as mentioned Jerebko hasn't been rebounding that much better as it is, but Brown has been exponentially better than Jerebko offensively. Plus he's another player who can create shot opportunities.

As for Mickey, I think Stevens is making a big mistake keeping him on the bench. He was one of our best performers in preseason. He one of our best rebounders and defenders, plus it addresses your problem of having to play Horford at PF.

And once taken into consideration how poorly Jerebko has been playing so far, any of the candidates above would probably get my vote.

But honestly I don't care either way, start Jerebko over Amir, whatever. I just find the notion of giving our worst peformer so far this season a starting job a bit repulsive in the face of it when in many ways I think he should be eating the bench fully right now until he can show otherwise once again.

In the end, we need to see more games... 3 games when our team is playing well, our first unit is playing well, seems like a poor reason to mess with it particularly to, once again, insert our worst performer so far.

I'll read this and reply tomorrow. TP for a good discussion. I think we'll still win the majority of our games either way, but I just think Horford and JJ warrant more time together, even if it's not in the starting lineup. I think JJ would benefit greatly by playing with a playmaking big like Horford.
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Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #42 on: October 31, 2016, 08:41:41 AM »

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I kinda hope we don't start KO simply so he doesn't qualify for the starter criteria which would worsen chances of keeping him after this season.

I think he ultimately ends up winning it, because he's simply the best option we have. I don't think he'll do enough to price us out of keeping him, though, unless we get another big addition, too.

But I think it's clear that we have to upgrade that spot in order to truly contend.
Olynyk may end up being more useful in the second unit with Smart and Brown. He adds a steady outside shot to a group who is inconsistent from outside.

Yes. Need a big man who can pass the ball from the high post in the 2nd unit.

The offense is much worse without one of Horford / Olynyk on the floor or last year with Sully / Olynyk to help facilitate ball movement with their passing. Becomes much easier to defend. Too predictable. Too much one-on-one basketball.

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #43 on: October 31, 2016, 08:49:13 AM »

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I don't care much about how Jerebko has played thus far. He is a proven player and I believe he will come good given time.

I am more concerned about Amir because physically I do not like what I am seeing since joining the Celtics. He is not the same player that he was with the Raptors. He is covering less ground on defense. He is not as active a cutter on offense (far too stagnant movement wise on offense which is much worse for a guy who is mostly a garbage man). I think his days as a starting caliber player are coming to an end.

If Amir was just missing shots, I wouldn't be bothered but it's the decrease in his athleticism & mobility and how that is effecting him on both ends of the floor that bothers me.

Amir is still a valuable bench big to have.

Re: It's time to start JJ over Amir
« Reply #44 on: October 31, 2016, 09:01:26 AM »

Offline littleteapot

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We should give it more than 3 games to see if the starting lineup that Stevens picked to start the year can work, but starting Jerebko would probably make us better.

Johnson is basically the perfect backup center. When you try to start him next to a guy who really should be playing center and you don't get rebounds, I don't really know what you are accomplishing.

If you're not rebounding you either need to be generating turnovers or altering the way the opponent defends you. To generate turnovers, start Brown. To warp defenses and make it tougher for them to defend Thomas the way you want to, start Jerebko.
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