It's time to start JJ over Amir

[jpotter33]

One of the things that has been most apparent over these first three games is that Amir really needs to be upgraded. He looks slower than ever this year, and he is averaging his lowest minutes per game since 2010, lowest points and rebounds per game since 2009, and his lowest fg% of his career. At this point, he is a major negative offensively, as exampled by defenders giving him wide open midrange shots, and his loss of his athleticism has really downgraded him defensively.

Ultimately, we should hope that KO will eventually win the starting spot once he returns, but as for now, why not include JJ in the starting lineup instead of Amir? At this point in their careers, I think JJ is the better overall player for us due to his versatility and better two-way play, and even Amir's advantage in rebounding is negligible when you look at their career histories. And though he is listed as our center, Horford has essentially been our power forward all this year, because he regularly guards the power forward of the other team (Williams in Charlotte, Gibson in Chicago, Booker in Brooklyn) with Amir guarding the center. I think this is largely because Amir doesn't have the speed or mobility anymore to guard the stretch 4's out on the perimeter, so he is relegated to guarding the centers.

However, if we start JJ next to Horford, then this opens things up for everybody. Offensively, not only does it include another shooter in the mix, it also creates more overall spacing for penetrating the lane. Amir creates absolutely zero spacing for penetration, and it's to the point where defenders are even daring him to take midrange jumpers due to his shot being so bad. JJ, on the other hand, is an elite three point shooting big from the 4 position who has shot better than 40% from three point range in his tenure as a Celtic. Further, this allows Horford much more room to post-up in the lane, where he can run the offense effectively by either putting it up himself or waiting for the defense to collapse and kicking it out. It would also aid his offensive rebounding, which is by far his worst year in that category in his career due to being out on the perimeter so much.

Defensively, this would allow Horford to be closer to the basket on defense, which is where he's really excelled at this year averaging 2.3 blocks per game. Putting Horford guarding centers and closer to the basket would also greatly help our rebounding woes by giving Horford a greater chance to succeed in that regard. JJ is also an excellent defender who has the versatility and mobility to guard those out on the perimeter and switch onto guards and other forwards when need be.

This is really a no-brainer at this point. The only downside to this is that it would take JJ's shooting away from a second unit that is pretty barren in that regard right now. However, Olynyk should return within the next the next couple of weeks, so this is a move that should be made for now. I'm a big fan of Amir, but it's time for him to be a bench player full-time now, where I think he'd ultimately succeed. And we should ultimately hope that we either upgrade our frontcourt via a trade or Olynyk clearly proves his ability to be a starter, but for now the best option is to start JJ and play him much more with Horford.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Jerebko has been terrible...

[jpotter33]

Jerebko has been terrible...

Amir has been even worse.

And at least Jerebko has an excuse - he's been playing with the likes of Zeller, Brown, and Rozier (while Brown and Rozier have potential, they're not exactly very good at the moment). Jerebko is a player that plays to the standard of those around him, i.e. he's most effective when he plays with good players around him. See the playoffs last year for evidence of this. As the fifth starter with not much attention on him, he could be very good for us.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think your bias is showing if you're concluding that Amir has been worse than Jerebko.

[otherdave]

The return of both Marcus and Kelly will help. Coach is pretty smart.  This will all be sorted before the playoffs start.

[jpotter33]

I think your bias is showing if you're concluding that Amir has been worse than Jerebko.

I think you're probably just as biased if you can't admit that Amir has been atrocious so far.

Sure, JJ hasn't been much better, but there's a difference when he's playing with the JV team and Amir is playing with the Varsity team.

When you compare the two in the same context, such as when they were both starters in the playoffs last year, then it's clear that JJ outperformed AJ when actually playing with good players.

He'd be much better for us in a starting role than Amir, even if it's not due just to his play itself but rather him moving Horford to his more natural center position and providing more spacing for penetration. That's undeniable.

EDIT: As a starter in the playoffs, JJ's averages were:

31.25 MPG
18-34 FG
6-17 3PFG
7.75 RPG
1.5 APG
1.25 TOPG
11.5 PPG

Compared to Amir's averages:

22.3 MPG
22-33 FG
0-2 3PFG
7.2 RPG
0.7 APG
1.7 TOPG
8.5 PPG

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think your bias is showing if you're concluding that Amir has been worse than Jerebko.

I think you're probably just as biased if you can't admit that Amir has been atrocious so far.

Sure, JJ hasn't been much better, but there's a difference when he's playing with the JV team and Amir is playing with the Varsity team.

When you compare the two in the same context, such as when they were both starters in the playoffs last year, then it's clear that JJ outperformed AJ when actually playing with good players.

He'd be much better for us in a starting role than Amir, even if it's not due just to his play itself but rather him moving Horford to his more natural center position and providing more spacing for penetration. That's undeniable.

Have I said anything for Amir? I've simply stated that Jerebko has been terrible and that your conclusion that Amir has been worse than Jerebko is incredibly biased.

Jerebko has been easily the worst player on the floor so far for the Celtics out of anyone who has seen playing time, easily.

So no, no matter how you want to paint it, Amir hasn't been worse than Jerebko. That's the only point I've made.

There are other avenues to explore before promoting our current worst player so far (of those who dress) to the starting line-up over Amir...

[jpotter33]

I think your bias is showing if you're concluding that Amir has been worse than Jerebko.

I think you're probably just as biased if you can't admit that Amir has been atrocious so far.

Sure, JJ hasn't been much better, but there's a difference when he's playing with the JV team and Amir is playing with the Varsity team.

When you compare the two in the same context, such as when they were both starters in the playoffs last year, then it's clear that JJ outperformed AJ when actually playing with good players.

He'd be much better for us in a starting role than Amir, even if it's not due just to his play itself but rather him moving Horford to his more natural center position and providing more spacing for penetration. That's undeniable.

Have I said anything for Amir? I've simply stated that Jerebko has been terrible and that your conclusion that Amir has been worse than Jerebko is incredibly biased.

Jerebko has been easily the worst player on the floor so far for the Celtics out of anyone who has seen playing time, easily.

So no, no matter how you want to paint it, Amir hasn't been worse than Jerebko. That's the only point I've made.

There are other avenues to explore before promoting our current worst player so far (of those who dress) to the starting line-up over Amir...

As a starter in the playoffs, JJ's averages were:

31.25 MPG
18-34 FG
6-17 3PFG
7.75 RPG
1.5 APG
1.25 TOPG
11.5 PPG

Compared to Amir's averages:

22.3 MPG
22-33 FG
0-2 3PFG
7.2 RPG
0.7 APG
1.7 TOPG
8.5 PPG

It's called context. You can't play with a terrible center in Zeller, a career journeyman in Green, and two players who are just now getting serious minutes in the NBA and expect to play your best ball when you're constantly losing ground due to being overmatched. It's not that difficult of a concept. Brown, Green, and Zeller are all like that, too - they play much better overall basketball when they're playing with our main guys rather than other bench guys.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think your bias is showing if you're concluding that Amir has been worse than Jerebko.

I think you're probably just as biased if you can't admit that Amir has been atrocious so far.

Sure, JJ hasn't been much better, but there's a difference when he's playing with the JV team and Amir is playing with the Varsity team.

When you compare the two in the same context, such as when they were both starters in the playoffs last year, then it's clear that JJ outperformed AJ when actually playing with good players.

He'd be much better for us in a starting role than Amir, even if it's not due just to his play itself but rather him moving Horford to his more natural center position and providing more spacing for penetration. That's undeniable.

Have I said anything for Amir? I've simply stated that Jerebko has been terrible and that your conclusion that Amir has been worse than Jerebko is incredibly biased.

Jerebko has been easily the worst player on the floor so far for the Celtics out of anyone who has seen playing time, easily.

So no, no matter how you want to paint it, Amir hasn't been worse than Jerebko. That's the only point I've made.

There are other avenues to explore before promoting our current worst player so far (of those who dress) to the starting line-up over Amir...

As a starter in the playoffs, JJ's averages were:

31.25 MPG
18-34 FG
6-17 3PFG
7.75 RPG
1.5 APG
1.25 TOPG
11.5 PPG

Compared to Amir's averages:

22.3 MPG
22-33 FG
0-2 3PFG
7.2 RPG
0.7 APG
1.7 TOPG
8.5 PPG

It's called context. You can't play with a terrible center in Zeller, a career journeyman in Green, and two players who are just now getting serious minutes in the NBA and expect to play your best ball when you're constantly losing ground due to being overmatched. It's not that difficult of a concept. Brown, Green, and Zeller are all like that, too - they play much better overall basketball when they're playing with our main guys rather than other bench guys.

That was then, this is now. Newsflash as well, Amir had a pretty good playoff series for himself as well last year...

And all of those you're mentioning are actually playing quite solidly and I would choose pretty much any of them over Jerebko as a potential starter over Amir if needed be.

It's one thing not to play your best ball, it's another to be the worst player so far on the floor.

[Big333223]

I think 3 games in, changing the starting lineup is an overreaction.

That said, if Amir's play continues this way, I agree it would be worth seeing what Jerebko can do with the starters. For some reason, he's had a pair of good showings in the playoffs after bad/uneven regular seasons. If Amir continues to disappoint and Olynyk takes longer to get back than we think he should, Jerebko would be an experiment worth trying.

[SHAQATTACK]

Meh

[jpotter33]

I think your bias is showing if you're concluding that Amir has been worse than Jerebko.

I think you're probably just as biased if you can't admit that Amir has been atrocious so far.

Sure, JJ hasn't been much better, but there's a difference when he's playing with the JV team and Amir is playing with the Varsity team.

When you compare the two in the same context, such as when they were both starters in the playoffs last year, then it's clear that JJ outperformed AJ when actually playing with good players.

He'd be much better for us in a starting role than Amir, even if it's not due just to his play itself but rather him moving Horford to his more natural center position and providing more spacing for penetration. That's undeniable.

Have I said anything for Amir? I've simply stated that Jerebko has been terrible and that your conclusion that Amir has been worse than Jerebko is incredibly biased.

Jerebko has been easily the worst player on the floor so far for the Celtics out of anyone who has seen playing time, easily.

So no, no matter how you want to paint it, Amir hasn't been worse than Jerebko. That's the only point I've made.

There are other avenues to explore before promoting our current worst player so far (of those who dress) to the starting line-up over Amir...

As a starter in the playoffs, JJ's averages were:

31.25 MPG
18-34 FG
6-17 3PFG
7.75 RPG
1.5 APG
1.25 TOPG
11.5 PPG

Compared to Amir's averages:

22.3 MPG
22-33 FG
0-2 3PFG
7.2 RPG
0.7 APG
1.7 TOPG
8.5 PPG

It's called context. You can't play with a terrible center in Zeller, a career journeyman in Green, and two players who are just now getting serious minutes in the NBA and expect to play your best ball when you're constantly losing ground due to being overmatched. It's not that difficult of a concept. Brown, Green, and Zeller are all like that, too - they play much better overall basketball when they're playing with our main guys rather than other bench guys.

That was then, this is now. Newsflash as well, Amir had a pretty good playoff series for himself as well last year...

And all of those you're mentioning are actually playing quite solidly and I would choose pretty much any of them over Jerebko as a potential starter over Amir if needed be.

It's one thing not to play your best ball, it's another to be the worst player so far on the floor.

Whatever, brah. You don't understand the nuances of basketball positioning, playing style, or fit if you would legitimately play any of those others as a starter over JJ for Amir, which would ultimately make us significantly worse overall.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think your bias is showing if you're concluding that Amir has been worse than Jerebko.

I think you're probably just as biased if you can't admit that Amir has been atrocious so far.

Sure, JJ hasn't been much better, but there's a difference when he's playing with the JV team and Amir is playing with the Varsity team.

When you compare the two in the same context, such as when they were both starters in the playoffs last year, then it's clear that JJ outperformed AJ when actually playing with good players.

He'd be much better for us in a starting role than Amir, even if it's not due just to his play itself but rather him moving Horford to his more natural center position and providing more spacing for penetration. That's undeniable.

Have I said anything for Amir? I've simply stated that Jerebko has been terrible and that your conclusion that Amir has been worse than Jerebko is incredibly biased.

Jerebko has been easily the worst player on the floor so far for the Celtics out of anyone who has seen playing time, easily.

So no, no matter how you want to paint it, Amir hasn't been worse than Jerebko. That's the only point I've made.

There are other avenues to explore before promoting our current worst player so far (of those who dress) to the starting line-up over Amir...

As a starter in the playoffs, JJ's averages were:

31.25 MPG
18-34 FG
6-17 3PFG
7.75 RPG
1.5 APG
1.25 TOPG
11.5 PPG

Compared to Amir's averages:

22.3 MPG
22-33 FG
0-2 3PFG
7.2 RPG
0.7 APG
1.7 TOPG
8.5 PPG

It's called context. You can't play with a terrible center in Zeller, a career journeyman in Green, and two players who are just now getting serious minutes in the NBA and expect to play your best ball when you're constantly losing ground due to being overmatched. It's not that difficult of a concept. Brown, Green, and Zeller are all like that, too - they play much better overall basketball when they're playing with our main guys rather than other bench guys.

That was then, this is now. Newsflash as well, Amir had a pretty good playoff series for himself as well last year...

And all of those you're mentioning are actually playing quite solidly and I would choose pretty much any of them over Jerebko as a potential starter over Amir if needed be.

It's one thing not to play your best ball, it's another to be the worst player so far on the floor.

Whatever, brah. You don't understand the nuances of basketball positioning, playing style, or fit if you would legitimately play any of those others as a starter over JJ for Amir, which would ultimately make us significantly worse overall.

Yes, I'm a basketball neophyte.

[jpotter33]

I think 3 games in, changing the starting lineup is an overreaction.

That said, if Amir's play continues this way, I agree it would be worth seeing what Jerebko can do with the starters. For some reason, he's had a pair of good showings in the playoffs after bad/uneven regular seasons. If Amir continues to disappoint and Olynyk takes longer to get back than we think he should, Jerebko would be an experiment worth trying.

It is early, but I think there's enough evidence to support such a position.

I think the worst part of it is we're just totally misusing Horford both offensively and defensively due to Amir's deficiencies. He's been a center his entire career, and unless we get a major upgrade like a Cousins or Noel type, he probably should stay a center. Just look at Horford's rebounding percentages to see how much he's been affected by this change.

EDIT: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01.html

His ORB% is down 5%; his DRB% is down 1.3%; and his TRB% is down 2.4%. That is definitely associated with him being out on the perimeter more than he's ever been in his career.

[Who]

Absolutely. Agreed about JJ > Amir individually at PF + better fit alongside rest of starting unit.