Rozier might be the real deal

[LarBrd33]

At risk of jinxing the kid...   I was skeptical of Rozier last season.  He was billed as another undersized shooting guard.  A typical tough defensive guard with no shooting ability... the kind of kid Ainge loves to draft.  There was also a lot of chatter about how Rozier was projected by some to be a 2nd rounder and taking him all the way at #16 was a reach.  They suggested he was a poor man's Marcus Smart.

In Summer-league last year the lack of shooting ability was on display.  He shot about 34% in a handful of games.  Decent stats reflected another undersized shooting guard without shooting ability:  12.3 points, 3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.3 steals

He did basically nothing in his limited NBA minutes and spent the entire season in D-League where he averaged a d-league typical 19.4 points, 7.8 assists, 6.4 rebounds and 1.9 steals, but while shooting a discouraging 39% from the field and 34% from three.  While the bulk stats are impressive out of context, it's usually a mistake to get excited about D-League stats.  That's the same league an undrafted nobody like Vincent Hunter averaged 21.8 points, 11.3 rebounds with 59% shooting.   You figure most of that league is made up of undrafted players so a guy taken 16th should be expected to outperform the guys he was better than on the College level.  The big stats don't translate to the NBA.  I remained skeptical.

He played some minutes in the playoffs and the shooting percentages seemed to carry over:  He averaged 4.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 20mpg in 5 playoff games while shooting 39% and 36% from three. 

My skepticism has thawed this Summer, though.   The kid seems like a hard worker and may have actually made significant improvements to his shooting.

Summer-league is Summer-league, but he was legitimately a top 5 player along with Kyle Anderson, Kris Dunn, Devin booker and Bobby Portis.  He was actually 4th in EFF amongst all players.  He averaged 20 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals through 6 games, but the most impressive thing was his shooting percentages: 53%/44%/84% ... Very nice!  Definitely showed improvement on the SL level.

Can't get overly excited about Summer-league though.  But we started to hear reports that he was one of the best players in training camp.  Interesting.  I was anxious to see if it would carry over to the preseason.

So far through 4 pre-season games he's averaging 10 points, 2.7 assists, 2 rebounds and 1 steal in 19mpg... with shooting percentages of 55%/63%/75%

Woah.   

Again, I don't want to to jinx the kid.  Hopefully he doesn't put up an 0-8 performance tonight.  But this is super encouraging.   If you take a poor man's Marcus Smart and give him above-average shooting ability - that's basically a borderline all-star right? 

It's only been 10 games (6 summer-league and 4 preseason) against weak competition (SL and bench players).  It's still early.  But Rozier might actually be the real deal.   If the kid continues to improve, that would be HUGE.   It reminds me of young Rondo when he showed up on the team backing up Delonte and Telfair.  Despite being the mid-to-late pick with minimal expectations, he eventually leapfrogged the guys above him.  What if Rozier does the same?  Who would that make expendable?   One last time... not trying to jinx the kid, but watching him has become one of the most exciting storylines heading into the season.   

[jpotter33]

People are seriously going a little overboard with this Rozier obsession, which is weird coming from you of all people, LarBrd33.

Let's let the kid do some stuff in some actual NBA games first before we hail him as something special. Sure, he's looked good in summer league and preseason, but he's largely played against scrubs the entire time.

There's going to be a lot of disappointed people on here when Rozier looks incredibly average for a middle first round pick in his second year playing against actual NBA competition.

EDIT: I'll give him that his shooting has been much better than advertised and I expected, which is great news for us. But he's not really impresses me all that much elsewhere, especially defensively where he's been very lackluster.

[LarBrd33]

Let's let the kid do some stuff in some actual NBA games first before we hail him as something special. Sure, he's looked good in summer league and preseason, but he's largely played against scrubs the entire time.

There's going to be a lot of disappointed people on here when Rozier looks incredibly average for a middle first round pick in his second year playing against actual NBA competition.

EDIT: I'll give him that his shooting has been much better than advertised and I expected, which is great news for us. But he's not really impresses me all that much elsewhere, especially defensively where he's been very lackluster.

Yeah I mean I don't want to get my hopes up and it's true we have seen PLENTY of young players put up decent stats in preseason only to fail hard in the regular season.  But if his shooting is legit... that's HUGE.  It's a tiny sample size.  But it's encouraging.

[alldaboston]

I've gone back and forth on which of the two I prefer as the long term point guard of this team. I was leaning towards Terry until Marcus's last game. He looked pretty confident and mature as the primary ball handler, while Terry, if he keeps up the good shooting, actually makes sense as an off the ball guy who can shoot, but also blow by guys with his speed. Terry doesn't have the natural point guard skills like passing and vision that Marcus has (and it's pretty underrated how good his passing really is). The offense flows better with Marcus handling the ball too.

I kinda like this backcourt we've got off the bench. Looks good so far. I don't wanna get too excited, but I'm eager to see more.

[The One]

Hot dog!

Rozay is legit!!

I didn't think he could shoot this well...can't wait til he's traded for Okafor.

[LarBrd33]

I've gone back and forth on which of the two I prefer as the long term point guard of this team. I was leaning towards Terry until Marcus's last game. He looked pretty confident and mature as the primary ball handler, while Terry, if he keeps up the good shooting, actually makes sense as an off the ball guy who can shoot, but also blow by guys with his speed. Terry doesn't have the natural point guard skills like passing and vision that Marcus has (and it's pretty underrated how good his passing really is). The offense flows better with Marcus handling the ball too.

I kinda like this backcourt we've got off the bench. Looks good so far. I don't wanna get too excited, but I'm eager to see more.

If one of Rozier or Smart ends up legit, I wonder if we'd entertain trading Thomas.

[dreamgreen]

Going into his second year on a playoff team he looks really good to this point. Hope he keeps it up in the regular season, than we will know.

[MJohnnyboy]

I'm optimistic about Terry as well but I feel obligated to bring up that he played pretty well in last year's pre-season too.

[LarBrd33]

I'm optimistic about Terry as well but I feel obligated to bring up that he played pretty well in last year's pre-season too.

great point

[SHAQATTACK]

Momma says the " tooth fairy " was real too

[dreamgreen]

I'm optimistic about Terry as well but I feel obligated to bring up that he played pretty well in last year's pre-season too.

And more importantly last year in the playoffs. 

[moiso]

Well if he doesn't work out we can always sign Vincent Hunter  

Rozier's shot looks like it really improved.  Everyone is right that it's still early but I don't see Rozier suddenly not being able to shoot, and he's certainly not going to become any less athletic for a very long time.  I really like him as an attacking scoring guard on offense who can play good defense also.  Not a real point guard but Derrick Rose wasn't either and he was MVP.  Westbrook is another guy who has figured out how to pass as he gone through his career.

[LarBrd33]

I'm optimistic about Terry as well but I feel obligated to bring up that he played pretty well in last year's pre-season too.

And more importantly last year in the playoffs. 

He was below average at best

[dreamgreen]

I'm optimistic about Terry as well but I feel obligated to bring up that he played pretty well in last year's pre-season too.

And more importantly last year in the playoffs. 

He was below average at best

For a rookie that didn't get much PT before that? I disagree, he wasn't off the chart or anything but he was very solid.

[chambers]

TP for the optimism.

I agree that in particular his three point shooting and mid range range have looked exceptional.

He has a level of balance to with his speed off the dribble- a beautiful stroke/ark that gives us serious hope in his future.

His defense is excellent too considering he's a 2nd year player without much NBA playing time.

I have a more optimistic outlook on Marcus Smart than you do, but when I watch Rozier, Smart and Brown out there together I get excited to see three guys who could become legitimate stars in the NBA. Two way players with defensive intensity and great bball IQ's that love to attack the basket and create space for shooters.
They'll certainly be drool worthy trade targets for potential Cousins/Butler/Griffin trades if the opportunity arises.

But yeah, it looks like Danny nailed the Rozier pick.