Rozier might be the real deal

[crimson_stallion]

People are seriously going a little overboard with this Rozier obsession, which is weird coming from you of all people, LarBrd33.

Let's let the kid do some stuff in some actual NBA games first before we hail him as something special. Sure, he's looked good in summer league and preseason, but he's largely played against scrubs the entire time.

There's going to be a lot of disappointed people on here when Rozier looks incredibly average for a middle first round pick in his second year playing against actual NBA competition.

EDIT: I'll give him that his shooting has been much better than advertised and I expected, which is great news for us. But he's not really impresses me all that much elsewhere, especially defensively where he's been very lackluster.

You sell Rozier short - I suspect your tone will change quite significantly by the All-Star break, when we have about a half season of play behind us.

People underestimate how impressive it was that he came in and contributed like he did in the playoffs - that's a very difficult thing to do as a rookie who hasn't played a single meaningful (i.e. not garbage time) minute of NBA basketball.  That says a lot about his confidence, his work ethic (to stay prepared) and his mental toughness.

People also underestimate how impressive he's played in preseason.  People talk about it as if preseason is the D-League, but it's not.  The preseason features complete NBA rosters - the starters are out there, the second units are out there. 

You're also trying to decide who makes the final roster spots, so yes the starters generally get minutes restricted so that the third string guys get to show what they can do - but that doesn't change the fact that you have starters out there playing 18-20 MPG, and you have second unit guys out there playing 18-20 MPG.  Rozier is playing his minutes on the second unit, along with guys like Smart, Jerebko and Zeller.  He's playing those minutes against opposing team's second units - most of whom are going to also be second unit guys in the regular season.  He's dominating against those guys.

There was a stretch today where Danny took out all the "core" guys and just left the 'n00bs" in there.  That rotation consisted of Jackson, Young, Hunter, Brown and Mickey.  Rozier did not play during those stretches, because his role is already determined - he was sitting on the bench with his fellow second unit teammates. If he was out there against those guys he probably would have had 20 points in 15 minutes - look what Hunter did against them lol

The point is that so far in the preseason, Rozier has probably been our second or third best player after Horford and MAYBE Bradley.  He's outplayed Smart, he's outplayed Jerebo, he's outplayed Brown (who has been pretty nice too), he's outplayed Crowder - hell he's even outplayed Thomas.  I don't care what anybody says, that is darn impressive.

Also, if you want to get feedback on where Rozier really stands against NBA competition, just listen to what the Celtics players and coaches have saying about his performances in practice.  There are people who have said he's been arguably the most impressive player in practice so far this offseason - the starters themselves have openly admitted that he's been tearing them apart.

The kid is real, and the doubters will see soon enough. 

[mr. dee]

I missed  the part that Rozier outplayed Smart. Outside scoring, Rozier is inferior to Smart in every aspect.

Rozier's revelation is just a statement of Danny's talent assessment, especially with the guards. And I'm glad there is an actual competition on the team because it will only motivate the players even more to improve.

[Snakehead]

Rozier absolutely has not outplayed Smart at any point.

[crimson_stallion]

I've gone back and forth on which of the two I prefer as the long term point guard of this team. I was leaning towards Terry until Marcus's last game. He looked pretty confident and mature as the primary ball handler, while Terry, if he keeps up the good shooting, actually makes sense as an off the ball guy who can shoot, but also blow by guys with his speed. Terry doesn't have the natural point guard skills like passing and vision that Marcus has (and it's pretty underrated how good his passing really is). The offense flows better with Marcus handling the ball too.

I kinda like this backcourt we've got off the bench. Looks good so far. I don't wanna get too excited, but I'm eager to see more.

If one of Rozier or Smart ends up legit, I wonder if we'd entertain trading Thomas.

It makes me sad to say it, but it's a very real possibility.

Right now we are blessed to have so many talented players stuck on contracts that are well below their worth. 

Once those contracts start to expire the blessing becomes a curse, because in this salary cap situation guys like Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder are likely both going to be max contract guys, and crazy as it sounds Avery Bradley might not be far from it the way he's been playing lately. 

Then we'll have Rozier, Smart and Brown all coming off their rookie deals too.

Somebody (or somebodies) will have to go - we won't be able to pay them all.  The players most likely to go are going to be the ones that are most easy to replace with other guys we have (or can get).  If Rozier keeps developing at this rate, it might make more sense to try and extend him on a cap friendly post-rookie deal then to throw $30M a year at Thomas.

Likewise it might make more sense to extend Brown on a post rookie deal then to throw a huge payday at Jae Crowder - who right now looks like he could be the next Kawhi Leonard / Draymond Green type (come out of nowhere star). 

If it gets to that point, and he walks for a bigger payday, then we only get a break of $7M or so off the cap - that's not enough to sign anybody of use in this salary world.  Ainge would probably have no choice but to try and trade him out. 

Of course this assumes Rozier develops into a star or fringe-star in the next year or two, which I believe he has the potential to do.

Smart is less of a concern, I think.  He's a good player, but he's your Amir Johnson, not your Kyrie Irving.  He's never going to be a bonafide star in this league - he just doesn't have the  tools for it.  He'll be the low ego guy who is happy to start or come off the bench, as long as he's making an impact - he's never threaten your starters enough to convince you to trade them away, because he just isn't that kind of player.  He's a complimentary piece, not a pillar you build around.

Rozier...he could be a "pillar" type.  Time will tell, but he has the potential and he has the intangibles (work ethic, motor, winners mentality). 

[positivitize]

I missed  the part that Rozier outplayed Smart. Outside scoring, Rozier is inferior to Smart in every aspect.

agreed. Rozier reminds me of a poor man's Westbrook. Someone who can use his athleticism and speed to score, but often takes the team out of their offense while he does so. The offense stalls out while he handles the ball, even if he's fairly effective at scoring.

I much prefer Smart being the primary ball handler. The ball doesn't stick, and often times it goes where it needs to. Smart's pretty nifty with his passing, and he plays his offensive game within the context of the team offense. I think Rozier (right now) is a guy who can get buckets but overall impacts winning less than his statistical contributions will say he does. Ironically, Smart sometimes struggles to get buckets, but anyone who knows anything about basketball will see that he contributes far beyond his statistics.

Rozier is kinda the Anti-Smart right now.

[crimson_stallion]

I missed  the part that Rozier outplayed Smart. Outside scoring, Rozier is inferior to Smart in every aspect.

I've watched every single preseason game so far, and I honestly have no idea what the hell you guys are watching - because so far Rozier has played well pretty much across the board, with the exception of offensively where he's been outstanding.

Rozier's plamaking stats so far:
4.7 Ast Per 36
1.7 TO Per 36
2.8 Assists Per Turnover

Smart's playmaking stats so far:
4.5 Ast Per 36
1.9 TO Per 36
2.36 Assists Per Turnover


Rozier's scoring stats so far:
18.6 Points Per 36
54.5% FG
55.6% 3PT
75% FT

Smart's scoring stats so far:
16.2 Pts Per 36
46.5% FG
17.6% 3PT (and I thought it couldn't get any uglier...)
72.7% FT

Rozier is clearly a better athlete and is clearly a more skilled ball handler.

So that leaves what advantages for Smart?

Smart wins the areas of defence and hustle, and that's it. Story of his life...

[crimson_stallion]

Smart's pretty nifty with his passing, and he plays his offensive game within the context of the team offense.

He plays his offensive game "within the context of the team's offence" because he's individual offence is entirely non-existent. 

The guy is almost always the worst offensive player on the court, at any given time.

[trickybilly]

Terry is legit for sure.

I hate to talk about this, but do GMs ever talk to fan-favorite guys about where they woul prefer to go after a decision has been made to cash in on his value?

[jpotter33]

I missed  the part that Rozier outplayed Smart. Outside scoring, Rozier is inferior to Smart in every aspect.

agreed. Rozier reminds me of a poor man's Westbrook. Someone who can use his athleticism and speed to score, but often takes the team out of their offense while he does so. The offense stalls out while he handles the ball, even if he's fairly effective at scoring.

I much prefer Smart being the primary ball handler. The ball doesn't stick, and often times it goes where it needs to. Smart's pretty nifty with his passing, and he plays his offensive game within the context of the team offense. I think Rozier (right now) is a guy who can get buckets but overall impacts winning less than his statistical contributions will say he does. Ironically, Smart sometimes struggles to get buckets, but anyone who knows anything about basketball will see that he contributes far beyond his statistics.

Rozier is kinda the Anti-Smart right now.

This. I don't understand this exaggeration of Rozier. Yes, he's been good at getting his own, and his shot has been very suprising. But it's clear that the offense runs so much smoother and better with Smart than Rozier, who is not good enough to be as ball-dominant as he is. Rozier's defense has been very sub-par, too, and he doesn't affect the game nearly as much as someone like Smart.

I imagine those in the Rozier fan club are in for a rude awakening once the actual season starts and he starts playing against actual rotation-caliber players instead of end of the bench players, which he's generally looked the best against in the latter stages of the game. There's a reason Brad hasn't hardly been playing him and Smart together the last few games with each one running the point. I imagine one of them is gone as trade bait by the trade deadline, and I imagine it will be Rozier unless we're bringing a Cousins-level guy back, which would necessitate adding Smart.

[jpotter33]

I missed  the part that Rozier outplayed Smart. Outside scoring, Rozier is inferior to Smart in every aspect.

I would invert that message completely.

Smart has outplayed Rozier on defence, other then that Rozier has been superior in every way.

He's scoring more effectively from outside, scoring more effectively from midrange, been more effective at getting in to the paint, he's moving the ball better, he's handling the ball better, he's pushing the tempo better, and his shot selection has been infinitely better.

Rozier is making things happen at will when he's on the court.  Smart continues take (and brick) too many ill advised threes, he continues to look like he's going to dribble off his foot every time he has the ball, and he continues to look like he's three steps too slow as opposing players blow by him on defence like he's standing still.

I applaud Smart for his heart, for his passion, for his effort and for his energy.  When he makes big plays, it's become of that.  It's because he got his hands out and knocked a ball loose, or because he out-muscled a guy for a rebound, or because he has dived and outworked a guy for a loose ball.  I do appreciate those things a great deal, and it makes me smile every time I see it. 

But there is only so far work and desire can take you because you, ultimately, get held back by talent.

But when Smart is stuck one on one against a quick guard, they're blowing by him like he's stuck in quicksand. 

When he's got the ball when the clock is winding down and he has to make something happen, he's throwing up contested threes, dribbling blindly into the defence, or throwing a not very well thought out pass that leads nowhere.

When he's bringing the ball up the court and the defence applies press defence, he's looking like he's stuck in a corner and doesn't know what to do - wildly looking around for anybody to pass it too, clearly completely lacking any confidence in his ball handling.

When Rozier has the ball with the clock winding down, he's creating offence.  He's using his quickness to get into the paint, then dishing out to a team mate who then makes a second pass for a score.  Or he's making a quick dribble or two around a defender, and then pulling up for the midrange J.  Or he's faking a drive, stepping back and drilling the three.  Or he just goes straight to the basket for a layup. 

When he's being pressured by the defence he's able to either dribble through the pressure, or else he's able to keep the dribble alive until he finds an open player. 

I don't think a lot of you guys realise how much Rozier's penetration has been changing the game.  He's constantly drawing the defence in, kicking it out, picking up "hockey assists" that don't register on the score board. When he's out there the ball moves - every time he touches the ball he's either making an aggressive move, or he's moving it on to the next man. 

Smart has looked good in his own ways and he's had a big impact on the games, but not nearly as much as Rozier has.  As I said, he's been our biggest impact player in the preseason so far after Horford and Bradley (who have both been huge). 

Some of you guys may disagree, which is fine - we all have the right to our point of view.  But the way I see it Smart brings are hustle and defense to a team that is absolutely packed with players who specialise at hustle and defence - Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Al Horford, Amir Johnson.  Smart production is big for us, but we'd get by just fine without him. 

Rozier on the other hand brings offensive creativity / spontaneity - something this team is absolutely desperate for, and something nobody else on the team but Thomas is capable of providing now that Evan Turner is gone.

That second unit without Smart would still be tough and competitive, but that second unit without Rozier would be completely incapable of generating anything resembling offence.

I'm sorry, but these are just simply untrue claims in reality. One cannot simply have watched the last several games and make these kinds of statements rationally. Even the announcers on both teams have remarked that Smart has dominated large parts of the last several games on both sides of the ball. Rozier just does not affect the game in any substantial way like that.

[Kadin]

FWIW, I agree that saying Rozier has outplayed Smart is complete nonsense. From where I sit, Smart has been much much better than last year at getting to the basket, making mid-range shots, and distributing the ball. He's still missing threes, but he isn't taking as many of them. It seems that his approach to offense has completely changed, and he's looking more like the player many of us wanted to see initially.

Rozier has been fine, but some of you guys are just being crazy with this Rozier love. He's not a future superstar by any means. We'd be lucky if he makes an all-star team. Now, BROWN on the other hand..

[crimson_stallion]

FWIW, I agree that saying Rozier has outplayed Smart is complete nonsense. From where I sit, Smart has been much much better than last year at driving to the basket, making mid-range shots, and distributing the ball. He's still missing threes, but he isn't taking as many of them. It seems that his approach to offense has completely changed, and he's looking more like the player many of us wanted to see initially.

Well he kinda has to be, because if he were to go into his third season looking anywhere near as god-aweful in those areas as he has been, he'd probably be demoted to the D-League. 

And yet Rozier has been better then Smart so far at:
1) Driving to the basket
2) Making midrange shots
3) Distributing the ball

So despite Smart IMPROVING at all these areas, Rozier's still done it better.

That's after about 6 games of meaningful NBA experience, versus Smart who is going in to his third season.  Ouch.

[aingeforthree]

Rozier & Smart have all the skills & talent to be very good in this league for 10 + years. They're just getting started. I'm loving the way this organization develops their youth.

[tankcity!]

I missed  the part that Rozier outplayed Smart. Outside scoring, Rozier is inferior to Smart in every aspect.

I would invert that message completely.

Smart has outplayed Rozier on defence, other then that Rozier has been superior in every way.

He's scoring more effectively from outside, scoring more effectively from midrange, been more effective at getting in to the paint, he's moving the ball better, he's handling the ball better, he's pushing the tempo better, and his shot selection has been infinitely better.

Rozier is making things happen at will when he's on the court.  Smart continues take (and brick) too many ill advised threes, he continues to look like he's going to dribble off his foot every time he has the ball, and he continues to look like he's three steps too slow as opposing players blow by him on defence like he's standing still.

I applaud Smart for his heart, for his passion, for his effort and for his energy.  When he makes big plays, it's become of that.  It's because he got his hands out and knocked a ball loose, or because he out-muscled a guy for a rebound, or because he has dived and outworked a guy for a loose ball.  I do appreciate those things a great deal, and it makes me smile every time I see it. 

But there is only so far work and desire can take you because you, ultimately, get held back by talent.

But when Smart is stuck one on one against a quick guard, they're blowing by him like he's stuck in quicksand. 

When he's got the ball when the clock is winding down and he has to make something happen, he's throwing up contested threes, dribbling blindly into the defence, or throwing a not very well thought out pass that leads nowhere.

When he's bringing the ball up the court and the defence applies press defence, he's looking like he's stuck in a corner and doesn't know what to do - wildly looking around for anybody to pass it too, clearly completely lacking any confidence in his ball handling.

When Rozier has the ball with the clock winding down, he's creating offence.  He's using his quickness to get into the paint, then dishing out to a team mate who then makes a second pass for a score.  Or he's making a quick dribble or two around a defender, and then pulling up for the midrange J.  Or he's faking a drive, stepping back and drilling the three.  Or he just goes straight to the basket for a layup. 

When he's being pressured by the defence he's able to either dribble through the pressure, or else he's able to keep the dribble alive until he finds an open player. 

I don't think a lot of you guys realise how much Rozier's penetration has been changing the game.  He's constantly drawing the defence in, kicking it out, picking up "hockey assists" that don't register on the score board. When he's out there the ball moves - every time he touches the ball he's either making an aggressive move, or he's moving it on to the next man. 

Smart has looked good in his own ways and he's had a big impact on the games, but not nearly as much as Rozier has.  As I said, he's been our biggest impact player in the preseason so far after Horford and Bradley (who have both been huge). 

Some of you guys may disagree, which is fine - we all have the right to our point of view.  But the way I see it Smart brings are hustle and defense to a team that is absolutely packed with players who specialise at hustle and defence - Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Al Horford, Amir Johnson.  Smart production is big for us, but we'd get by just fine without him. 

Rozier on the other hand brings offensive creativity / spontaneity - something this team is absolutely desperate for, and something nobody else on the team but Thomas is capable of providing now that Evan Turner is gone.

That second unit without Smart would still be tough and competitive, but that second unit without Rozier would be completely incapable of generating anything resembling offence.

I'm sorry, but these are just simply untrue claims in reality. One cannot simply have watched the last several games and make these kinds of statements rationally. Even the announcers on both teams have remarked that Smart has dominated large parts of the last several games on both sides of the ball. Rozier just does not affect the game in any substantial way like that.

TBH you are bias towards Smart. Never really seen you criticize him, even last year when he was garbage until the playoffs.

Smart has looked pretty good in the preseason, but so has Rozier. If you're saying Rozier's stats are misleading because of the level of competition, then so are Smart's. You can't have it both ways.

Basically, a person who has the ability to create his own shot, and has the potential to be an impact on defense is better than a role player. I mean you want Smart to start over IT. Yes, IT's stats are misleading because BS is a great coach, but Smart has the same coach! I mean you are nuts for saying that they shouldn't start IT. I just can't wait for the regular season to start so Rozier can just shut everyone up at this point. We should be happy he's good, not insecure he's going to steal Smart's minutes.

[MJohnnyboy]

I'm optimistic about Terry as well but I feel obligated to bring up that he played pretty well in last year's pre-season too.

Yeah just gonna post that here again.

Also, it's pre-season. Let's not say anything for sure until we see these kids play in an actual game, but say we do take pre-season performances seriously. If you look at the +/-, Smart has had a MUCH bigger impact on the team's play than Rozier. My honest opinion: Smart's threeball is still broken, in fact he may never be a good 3-point shooter, but everywhere else he has looked pretty darn good. His mid-range game looks solid. His distributing skills look good. His defense and tenacity look as great as ever. While Rozier has looked good, it hasn't led to much good. In fact, his defense hasn't looked as good as I had hoped, but don't take my word for it. Let's compare the +/- of the two of them

Marcus's +/- in these 5 games: -8, +1, +11, +14, +11
Terry's: -4, -10, +2, -2, +3

Marcus's +/- has been +19.
Terry's +/- has been -11.
Smart beats Terry in +/- by 30. That to me is pretty telling.

Finally I think Rozier may not have played much tonight because of that hip pointer they were talking about earlier but who knows? I want to reiterate: it's pre-season but I think if anyone's going to make a bigger impact this season, it's Marcus Smart.