Where would Jaylen get drafted today?

[TrueFan]

I think Bender is the player who drops the most but Dunn would had been an easy pick at 3 over Brown.

I still like Brown a lot but Dunn showed some flashes of greatness already.

[alldaboston]

I think Bender is the player who drops the most but Dunn would had been an easy pick at 3 over Brown.

I still like Brown a lot but Dunn showed some flashes of greatness already.

None whatsoever in preseason thus far.

[fairweatherfan]

Same teams picking? How would he go anywhere different?  Simmons/Ingram still go 1-2 and unless we're already having serious second thoughts about Brown we'd take him again.  And I doubt we're having second thoughts.

I'm not sure Ingram goes ahead of Brown at this point. There were question marks on just how good of a shooter he actually is as in college his 68% FT shooting was a concern. So far he looks like he might've been overrated as a shooter and in the preseason is 23% from the field, 22% from 3's, and 35% from the FT line. This doesn't even address his lack of strength, which by the looks of it seems that Ingram is several years away. Plus, the Lakers are clearly not patient type.

I don't think a few bad preseason games and still being skinny after 4 months is nearly enough to change the Lakers' minds.

[Eddie20]

Same teams picking? How would he go anywhere different?  Simmons/Ingram still go 1-2 and unless we're already having serious second thoughts about Brown we'd take him again.  And I doubt we're having second thoughts.

I'm not sure Ingram goes ahead of Brown at this point. There were question marks on just how good of a shooter he actually is as in college his 68% FT shooting was a concern. So far he looks like he might've been overrated as a shooter and in the preseason is 23% from the field, 22% from 3's, and 35% from the FT line. This doesn't even address his lack of strength, which by the looks of it seems that Ingram is several years away. Plus, the Lakers are clearly not patient type.

I don't think a few bad preseason games and still being skinny after 4 months is nearly enough to change the Lakers' minds.

He was pretty bad all summer league too. Regardless, the notion that this was a 2 player draft seems to have quickly died out.

[LarBrd33]

If Jaylen had been drafted by the Suns, would anyone here still be calling him a future star ?

If Boston had taken bender, would people here be convinced he was the best player in the draft ?

[alldaboston]

If Jaylen had been drafted by the Suns, would anyone here still be calling him a future star ?

If Boston had taken bender, would people here be convinced he was the best player in the draft ?

eh, i probably wouldnt have been as intrigued with Jaylen as i am starting to become now.

but Bender? i really dont know. for awhile i had actually talked myself into taking him, but then i kept getting Darko flashbacks, and the sample size just wasnt enough for me to commit to picking him. also, from what i saw in summer league, i didnt think he was as great a prospect as he was made out to be (although he's still so young, and its incredibly early to say anything for certain).

[snively]

Statistically, Jaylen has actually been pretty poor this preseason. The exultation of the OP is more than premature - it's unjustified.

Jaylen's shooting 33% from the field, 20% from deep and 50% from the line, for a TS% of 38%. Per 36, he's putting up 13 points on 16 shots.

If we're going off of preseason rookie performance, Jaylen, Ingram, Bender and Dunn would all be suffering, and guys like Murray, McCaw and Hield would all be rising.

[kraidstar]

Statistically, Jaylen has actually been pretty poor this preseason. The exultation of the OP is more than premature - it's unjustified.

Jaylen's shooting 33% from the field, 20% from deep and 50% from the line, for a TS% of 38%. Per 36, he's putting up 13 points on 16 shots.

If we're going off of preseason rookie performance, Jaylen, Ingram, Bender and Dunn would all be suffering, and guys like Murray, McCaw and Hield would all be rising.

Yeah, his shooting hasn't been good. But his form is better than expected.

And, more importantly, he looks like a well-rounded player. The fears that he can't pass or doesn't have a feel for the game seem to be unfounded. He is also a terrific physical specimen, even matched against other NBA players.

IMO his stock is up.

Ingram's is down for sure. His early struggles are understandable, but I worry he can't impact the game enough at the NBA level with his limited athleticism. His performance so far is the most surprising to me.

Hield and Murray are slightly up. I think their mediocre athleticism limits their ceilings, though, which is why they weren't picked higher in the first place.

Chriss is up, he has loads of potential.

Bender is down, he just hasn't looked good. But he was a project anyways, I'm guessing the Suns aren't getting too worried this early.

Dunn's stock IMO is about the same as when he was drafted. He will be good, question is whether he'll be great, especially with his shooting concerns.

[walker834]

Lakers and Philly would probably still take Simmons and Ingram 1 or 2 although I question whether they got the better player.  Jaylen might not be all world yet  but he has potential to be a reggie lewis type player.  Even paul pierce but i doubt he will touch pierce's scoring record.  Pierce was a good shooter plus an underrated athlete and took the ball to the line as well.  I think Jaylen's upside is greater in ways because of his athleticism if he can become a better scorer from range.

Jaylen has a  chance to be a 20-25 ppg guy, probably lower on this team, 7 boards who passes the ball well and gets 3-5 assists plus defensive stats.  Plus he fits us as a team guy.  Probably won't average those numbers off hte bat his offense is still coming but he could average 15ppg on ateam that would play him more as a rookie.

Outside of his offense just developing there isn't much he can't do on a basketball court.

[Vermont Green]

I think the OP is trying to get support for his idea that Brown may be a better pick than Simmons or Ingram.

Not necessarily. I don't think he'd be drafted ahead of Simmons, but I do think he would go ahead of Ingram. I'm not sure why people don't think that stocks, especially for young developing players, aren't fluid. Players rise and fall on boards after a few March tournament games, after combine measurements, after workouts, and even after interviews. So it's only logical that the same would apply after seeing players perform on a different stage in summer league and preseason. I'm fairly certain that after watching players many teams would change their stance on prospects. Just like they probably had after some of the scouting process described above.

So if we could start over, everyone seems to agree Simmons goes #1 but the question is whether the Lakers still take Ingram.  Even if they don't take Ingram, it is not certain they take Brown at #2 in place of him although it is logical they would target a SF or a Center.  So say they take Bender and the Celtics get to choose between Brown and Ingram.  Who do they take?  On draft night, maybe they take Ingram, maybe not.  Today, probably still Brown.  So yes, stock can change I just don't think the level of certainty has changed all that much.

Maybe the Lakers do take Brown because Dunn or Heild play positions they already have covered well.  I don't think it means much.  A couple of these guys are going to bust and a couple are going to surprise.  Ingram still could be a star even though he is skinny.  Brown could be a bust.  Who knows.  I am happy with Brown.  I suspect the Lakers are still fine with Ingram.  At some point they may be like "darn, we could have had Brown" but I don't think it is even close to that now.

[mmmmm]

Too early.   Way, way, way, way too early to re-assess this draft, for any of the players.

I don't understand why so many always want to jump ahead and assert what the value of a young player is so early.

Avery Bradley was routinely treated like dirt by so many on this very blog until late his second season.

Jae Crowder was not noticed by very many until he got out of Dallas as a trade extra and got a chance to play.  Now he's anything but an extra in trade proposals for him.

Heck, on the other side of that transaction, Dwight Powell was a throw-in that has emerged as a valuable rotation player for Dallas.

Just two weeks ago, James Young was still dirt to be swept aside.    Then, he actually played reasonably well for a couple of pre-season games and suddenly the tone in discussing him changed dramatically positive.  It could go back to trashing him by half time of the next pre-season game!

It's crazy.

The NBA is a veteran-dominated league that is incredibly hard on rookies.   It's really difficult to try from the outside (not having all the inside information on how practices other team activities go) to assess whether a rookie is a doing well or not.  If he gets decent minutes and plays well, you can usually tell he's pretty good.   But if he doesn't get many minutes and even struggles in the few random, garbage time minutes he gets, it may mean absolutely nothing in the long run.   

My advice is to just slow down.   Just watch and let it all unfold.

[kraidstar]

Too early.   Way, way, way, way too early to re-assess this draft, for any of the players.

I don't understand why so many always want to jump ahead and assert what the value of a young player is so early.

Avery Bradley was routinely treated like dirt by so many on this very blog until late his second season.

Jae Crowder was not noticed by very many until he got out of Dallas as a trade extra and got a chance to play.  Now he's anything but an extra in trade proposals for him.

Heck, on the other side of that transaction, Dwight Powell was a throw-in that has emerged as a valuable rotation player for Dallas.

Just two weeks ago, James Young was still dirt to be swept aside.    Then, he actually played reasonably well for a couple of pre-season games and suddenly the tone in discussing him changed dramatically positive.  It could go back to trashing him by half time of the next pre-season game!

It's crazy.

The NBA is a veteran-dominated league that is incredibly hard on rookies.   It's really difficult to try from the outside (not having all the inside information on how practices other team activities go) to assess whether a rookie is a doing well or not.  If he gets decent minutes and plays well, you can usually tell he's pretty good.   But if he doesn't get many minutes and even struggles in the few random, garbage time minutes he gets, it may mean absolutely nothing in the long run.   

My advice is to just slow down.   Just watch and let it all unfold.

Is anyone saying that these guys are finished products?

We're just evaluating where these guys are now compared to when they were drafted. We only have stats/footage of a few games apiece of them against NBA competition, but that's a lot more than we had a couple months ago.

IMO this draft class is quite interesting, in no small part because we have a big stake in it. Not surprising people are eager to discuss it.

[crimson_stallion]

Lets see...

Simmons IMHO is still the top talent, but given Philly's past history the injury may be enough to scare them off.

Given how Dunn dominated the D-League and how Hield is killing it in preseason, I'd imagine both of those guys go top 5 - as would Brown, who has been quietly solid in both tournaments so far.

Chriss has played well in Sacramento, so he'd probably in the top 5.

Jamal Murray has been decent in both leagues - lacks upside and still looks like JJ Reddick 2.0, but that's probably good enough to get him in the top 5.

Taurean Prince has looked pretty solid. 

So, given that Ingram and Bender are playing like hot garbage and look like they'll spend the next year or two in the D-League, my top 6 would probably be something like...

1. 76ers select Khris Dunn
2. Lakers select Ben Simmons (he'd fit in with Clarkson, Russell and Randle)
3. Celtics select Jaylen Brown (Ainge seemed to really like him)
4. Suns select Marquese Chriss (they really wanted a PF)
5. Wolves select Buddy Hield
6. Pelicans select Jamaal Murray

Or if the Sixers decided to roll then dice on Simmons...

1. 76ers select Ben Simmons
2. Lakers select Khris Dunn (they could use a pure PG with some grit who plays D)
3. Celtics select Jaylen Brown
4. Suns select Marquese Chriss (they really wanted a PF)
5. Wolves select Buddy Hield
6. Pelicans select Jamaal Murray

Dunn seemed to be the closest thing to a 'consensus #3' after Ingram and Simmons, and both the Lakers and Sixers could use a player like him (very athletic pass-first PG and a gritty defender) so in the event that Ingram or Simmons dropped out of the top 3 for whatever reason, I feel Dunn would have been the guy to jump up and benefit from it. 

Chriss looks WAY better then Dragan Bender right now (as in, not even close) so in hindsight I imagine the Suns would have taken him at 4 and Bender would have dropped who knows where to - maybe somebody still takes him in the top 10 based on potential alone. 

[clover]

From what I've read about Ingram, his D, which was his question mark given his body type, is coming along nicely.

That his first few shots in preseason haven't fallen isn't cause for worry for a teenager who shot 41% from the 3 his one year in college.

Likewise, writing off Bender as an 18yo 7-footer in the NBA is a little crazy.

[footey]

Isn't this topic early by about a full season?  Kid has gotten off to a decent start in pre-season, but can't we just watch the games and reflect on these questions later?