1. Fact or Fiction: Al Horford is the star Boston's been looking for.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Fiction. They should be thrilled with the one-two punch of adding a versatile All-Star big man and stealing him away from a conference rival. But to be a true championship contender, Horford can't be their best player. The C's are still searching for that superstar -- and that's totally OK.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Fiction. He's definitely a star, and represents an improvement to the roster. But the transformative star Boston is looking for -- and for which the franchise has hoarded assets the last three seasons --didn't walk through that door yet. Kevin Durant was the star they'd been looking for, but Horford is a hell of a consolation prize.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Fiction. Given their history, the Celtics are unlikely to be satisfied by anything but a title. Although I like Horford -- he ranked 27th in Real Plus-Minus (RPM) last season -- he's not good enough to lead them to a championship, given that the Warriors have three players in RPM's top eight. In fact, the Celtics probably need another star just to make it out of the Eastern Conference
Chris Forsberg, ESPN.com: Fact. But beggars can't be choosers. The Celtics would have loved Kevin Durant to be the star they've been looking for, too. Still, Horford is such a perfect fit for Brad Stevens' team (especially the way the ball goes through the bigs on offense). Boston is outscoring opponents by 55.7 points per 100 possessions while Horford is on the floor through his first two preseason appearances.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Fiction. The Celtics pitched Kevin Durant the day they signed Horford, after all. Their quest for an elite shot creator on offense isn't over now that they've added Horford. But he still represents a two-way upgrade on the more limited big men on last season's roster.
2. What's the biggest issue facing the Celtics this season?
Haberstroh: Another scoring wing. Relying on Gerald Green is a mistake, but they won't have much of a choice once Isaiah Thomas steps off the floor. Second-year guards R.J. Hunter and Terry Rozier are breakout candidates, though.
Elhassan: Two crucial concerns: One, there is a dearth of pure 3-point shooting on the roster. Despite being in the top half of the league in makes and attempts, the Celtics were bottom three in efficiency from downtown last season. Two, the other possible issue is the still-unclear hierarchy on the roster. Is this still Thomas' team?
Ethan Strauss: I feel like we're pricing in the Brad Stevens effect. Maybe we're operating under a false assumption that he just adds a few wins to the wins that Al Horford already brings with him.
Amin Elhassan: I've heard from people who are feeling like there's a little bit too much . . . admiration for Brad Stevens that is a little unfounded. I like him, I think he is one of the best young coaches we have in the league, but this is an opinion that is not shared league wide, let me just say that right now.
Engelmann: Their depth at the wing positions is a little thin. With Terry Rozier, R.J. Hunter and Jaylen Brown they have 3 players that can develop into productive NBA players, but none of them is there yet. Also, they were 26th in defensive rebounding rate last season -- a facet of the game in which Horford doesn't excel either.
Forsberg: Shooting. There's no reason this team shouldn't be a top-3 defense (they tied for fourth in defensive rating last season without Horford) and that will give Boston a chance to compete on a nightly basis. The Celtics ranked 24th in effective field goal percentage last year and need to more consistently make 3-point shots. The other big issue: A healthy Cleveland team.
Pelton: Besides the existence of LeBron James? It's their continued reliance on Isaiah Thomas to create offense, particularly with the departure of Evan Turner. According to NBAwowy.com, Boston's offense mustered an anemic 92.0 offensive rating in a small number of minutes last season (246) with neither Thomas nor Turner on the court.
3. Fact or Fiction: Isaiah Thomas will be part of Boston's next great team.
Pelton: Fact. Unless the Celtics can sign an elite free agent like Kyle Lowry or Chris Paul or trade for someone like Russell Westbrook, they're unlikely to upgrade the position in the short term. I think it's more likely they take some playmaking duties off Thomas' plate by adding a ball-dominant wing or drafting a point guard who might eventually supplant him.
Engelmann: Fact, or at least I don't see why not. Thomas isn't an elite point guard due to his defensive shortcomings -- the Celtics' opponents scored 5.6 points more per 100 possessions with Thomas on the court, compared to him off. But, thanks to his offense, he's still good enough to be a solid contributor to an elite team.
Haberstroh: Fact. I could see him in a Manu Ginobili or Jamal Crawford role as the secondary playmaker on a contender. The Celtics can win 50 games with him as their top scorer, but he'll need another scoring mate for them to vault into the inner circle of championship contenders.
Forsberg: Fact. Maybe it'll become more apparent as the Celtics step into the national spotlight more this season but, even after Horford's arrival, Thomas is the face of the franchise. He's fully bought into the tradition and was Boston's primary offseason recruiter. If he maintains All-Star-caliber play, the Celtics will live with the difficulties his size presents defensively.
Elhassan: Fiction. I still feel that if Thomas is to be a part of any great team, that role would consist of him coming off the bench. That fact, his gaudy numbers and his bargain basement pricing will probably conspire to make him the centerpiece of a trade that eventually leads to Boston's next great team.
4. What trade would make the most sense for the Celtics?
Engelmann: With the Warriors so strong, the Celtics should probably wait another year before making big moves. On the other hand, if a star becomes disgruntled and demands a trade -- I think Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are strong candidates here -- the Celtics might want to pull the trigger.
Elhassan: Ideally, a superlative perimeter player at the 2 or 3 position -- a bona fide 3-point threat who can also make plays for others. I'm not sure that deal exists, but that's what they need.
Forsberg: A logjam-loosening trade is needed sooner rather than later. Boston has 16 guaranteed contracts and would prefer not to eat money before trimming to the 15-man regular-season maximum. Further down the road, adding a bench scorer might aid a playoff push if Boston's bench struggles to generate consistent offense without Evan Turner's Swiss Army Knife talents this season.
Pelton: Until or unless Westbrook is available, trading for a wing who can effectively create shots for himself or others is the most realistic path to Boston improvement. If the Bulls decide to trade Jimmy Butler, he's an ideal fit. Beyond him, we're probably talking about Danilo Gallinari or possibly someone like Rudy Gay as something of a replacement for Turner on the second unit.
Haberstroh: Jimmy Butler for Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, the 2017 Brooklyn Nets first-rounder (for which Boston has swap rights) and another first-rounder. If the Bulls' highly-flammable situation combusts in the early going, don't be surprised if the Celtics make a godfather offer for Butler. The Bulls' rebuild may be near.
5. Fact or Fiction: Boston is Cleveland's biggest threat in the East.
Elhassan: Fact. They check the most boxes in terms of being well coached with a creative playbook and a deep roster that plays physical defense. Additionally, they have the most assets at their disposal to make further improvements to the team. Having said all that, they still face enormous odds if they have aspirations of unseating the Cavs in the East.
Haberstroh: Fact. They're young. They're talented. And they're extremely well-coached. If the Cavs show their age and enter the postseason battered again like 2014-15, this series would resemble the 2009-10 Cavs-Celtics series, but with the roles reversed.
Forsberg: Fact. Sure, Toronto and Indiana should jockey for this spot, too, but Horford's arrival and the continued development of Boston's young core (players like Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, and rookie Jaylen Brown) should push Boston to the next level. It's hard to call them the second-best team until they win a playoff series, but the potential is there to see Cleveland in the conference finals.
Engelmann: Fact. I even think the race for the East's No. 1 seed will be closer than people believe, due to the Cavs losing Matthew Dellavedova and the J.R. Smith situation being unresolved. Vegas also sees the Celtics as the second-best team, with almost twice the likelihood to win the East as the third-ranked team. Still, the Cavs' chances of repeating as East champs in the postseason is around 70 percent.
Pelton: Fact. The history of the East is we haven't been able to predict the top challenger to James' teams since the Indiana Pacers filled that role for a few seasons, but with Horford's addition, the Celtics are positioned best to emerge as that team. Still, actually beating a healthy Cleveland team seems like a long shot given the Cavaliers' ability to contain Thomas using their size on the perimeter.
