When do you guess Jaylen will get his first start?

[LarBrd33]

Well Brad Stevens has been here for 3 years, and this is a quick breakdown of the players who haves started.

2014: 12 of 19 players started.  All 9 players who averaged 20+mpg started, 11 of the 13 players who averaged 15+ mpg started, 9 of 10 players who played 40 or more games started.  Only Green and Rondo started every game they played.

2015: 12 of 22 players started. 11 of the 13 players who averaged 20+mpg started (there were 2 players who avg 15-20mpg, neither started).  8 of the 9 players who played more than 40 games started.  Only Bradley, Green, and Rondo started every game they played.

2016: 10 of 16 players started. 8 of 8 who played 20+mpg started, 9 of the 10 players who averaged 15+ mpg started, same for those who played 40+ games (Jerebko being the lone regular to never start).   Only Crowder started every game he played.

Obviously the C's had a few trades and injuries each year, but I'd also be surprised if there weren't any trades or injuries this year.  If you're a regular rotation player with Stevens, it looks like you'll get your chance to start multiple games, and I think that trend will continue this year and Brown will get to start a handful of games.

Worst case, hopefully the C's have the their playoff seed firmly locked up this year at the end of the season, and he'll get to start the last game of the season on 4/12 when Stevens rolls out the Celticsblog dream lineup of Rozier, Jackson, Hunter, Brown, Mickey.

I said it before a couple times, but when Brad was hired I read a bunch of articles about his stat guru guy and about how they are all about collecting data to figure out which lineups/schemes are the most successful.   I don't have concrete evidence to back it up, but it seems every they start out the season by experimenting with the rotation and eventually as the season progresses they settle on what's working.  It makes sense... you can't come to any conclusions without first collecting data... so the chaotic early-season lineups make some sense.  In general, we're trending towards having less and less chaos in our lineups as players like Bradley and Thomas start to make names for themselves.

That's why I actually think we could see Jaylen make a surprise start early.  Just to test it out and see if it's effective.  I'm really looking forward to seeing if the Smart, Bradley, Jaylen, Crowder, Horford lineup works... I wonder if they might start that lineup at some point.

[Vermont Green]

Gerald Green may start the season as #2 SF behind Crowder but I don't think it is unrealistic to expect Brown to move ahead of Green on the depth chart at some point during the season.  I think SG is Green's more natural position anyway.

The point being that Crowder will be the starter unless he gets hurt which he probably will at some point during the 2016-17 season.  So my prediction is that Brown will get his first start on February 16, 2017 at Chicago.

[GreenWarrior]

if Jaylen is starting this season is going to disappoint a lot of people on this board.

Is that a suggestion that Jaylen starting means the team has given up and entered tank mode?

I still think he might sneak into a starting lineup here or there if he proves to be strong defensively.  Marcus SMart is coming off a historically bad shooting season and it didn't stop him from getting some starts.  Jaylen's progression defensively will be key.

no. it means expecting anything out of Jaylen brown is a waste of time.

[TheSundanceKid]

So there's 2 parts to this:

1) Does he get any starts - Yes I'd imagine so, Crowder isn't playing every game. THe way he puts his body on the line you have to thing he'll miss some games. Jaylen should be starting those

2) Does he become a starter - I think that would be a sign of one of 3 things. Either he has proved himself a starter in which case we are doing pretty darn good! Or things have gone horribly with Crowder and Brown is pushed into the staring lineup, bad. Or a big trade has gone down with Crowder moving out, which could either be good or bad depending on perspective

[Csfan1984]

Maybe next year. Can't see him starting over Green or Smart. I see things as
Depth/rotation
PG- IT, Smart, DJ
SG- AB, Smart, Hunter, Brown
SF- Crowder, Green, Brown, JJ
PF- Hordford, AJ, JJ, Bentil
C- Noel, Hordford, Zeller, Mickey

I am assuming KO, Young and Rozier are traded for Noel. (Yes, No picks)

[dannyboy35]

I think it will take a couple of injuries for Jaylen to start this year. Injuries aside, I'd say to replace crowder I'll say in his fourth season

[manl_lui]

my prediction is whenever Jae goes down with an injury, judging from his last 2 seasons with us, I'd say around January/February

if you're talking about permanently, I don't see Jae being replaced until Brown's 2nd or 3rd season

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

At whatever point Avery Bradley suffers his customary 5-10 game injury absence.

[slamtheking]

When do you think Jaylen will get his first starting nod?

Will Jaylen start at all this year?  Next year?  Early this season?  Mid season?  TP's to whoever comes close to guessing Jaylen's first start. 

the correct answer is: when he's shown to be the best SF on the team.

as far as timing, probably not until next year --> Crowder starts and JJ starts if Crowder misses any games.  Next year, JJ is likely allowed to walk and Brown starts when Crowder misses any games.

[saltlover]

At whatever point Avery Bradley suffers his customary 5-10 game injury absence.

Smart will get those starts.

[PhoSita]

2018

You and Pho both said 2018...

Do you guys think it will be a permanent starting role or just his first of an occasional spot start here and there in the year 2018?

Is your guess that by 2018 Jaylen will have surpassed Crowder and pushed him to the bench?

I'm guessing that by 2018 one or both of Bradley and Thomas will have been traded or left in FA, and after a season and a half or so it'll be time to see if our #3 overall pick can be a starter.

[Ilikesports17]

When do you think Jaylen will get his first starting nod?

Will Jaylen start at all this year?  Next year?  Early this season?  Mid season?  TP's to whoever comes close to guessing Jaylen's first start. 

the correct answer is: when he's shown to be the best SF on the team.

as far as timing, probably not until next year --> Crowder starts and JJ starts if Crowder misses any games.  Next year, JJ is likely allowed to walk and Brown starts when Crowder misses any games.

If Crowder misses games i expect either Marcus or Jaylen to get the start.

[chambers]

I think it depends how much Brad trusts Gerald Green.

Jae will probably get injured at some point given how hard he plays, and Green is his likely replacement. Although if Jaylen can play some solid D then he'll have a shot too.

If Brad trusts Jaylen more than Green, or if both Crowder and Green are injured, then he'll probably get a start.

Even then though, I guess he might prefer to start Marcus at the 3 over Jaylen in an injury bug case.

So yeah, I agree he probably won't get a start this season.

[slamtheking]

When do you think Jaylen will get his first starting nod?

Will Jaylen start at all this year?  Next year?  Early this season?  Mid season?  TP's to whoever comes close to guessing Jaylen's first start. 

the correct answer is: when he's shown to be the best SF on the team.

as far as timing, probably not until next year --> Crowder starts and JJ starts if Crowder misses any games.  Next year, JJ is likely allowed to walk and Brown starts when Crowder misses any games.

If Crowder misses games i expect either Marcus or Jaylen to get the start.

I think Brad goes with JJ this year.  He's shown he can be productive in Brad's line-ups and has more experience than either Smart or Brown

[LarBrd33]

I'm going to guess October 17th in a preseason game vs the Nets just to rub salt in the wound.

I'll say he gets his first regular season start on December 3rd.