Projecting Brad Stevens 2016 - 2017

[Dedalus]

It’s easy to quantify players’ performance but more difficult to evaluate how a coach performs; how a coach improves from season to season is difficult to chart. “Players win games”…

But, here are a few team-stats from Basketball Reference. Obviously, Brad Stevens and the Celtics have improved in each of the past 3 seasons.

Using Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, and, Pace, I made a few rough projections. I think Brad Stevens will continue trending upward. His fourth season at Butler was the season they returned to the Final Four without Gordon Hayward.

I saw Brad Stevens lost another member of the Butler community, the 3rd loss in 8 months. I hope he’s doing alright. Sports can be a great place for competitive people to cope with personal difficulties. I wondered, “Is Brad Stevens about to go all Monday-Night-Football-Brett Favre on the entire league?”

Here is a starting point to track team progress.

2016 – 2017 Projections Using Rounded Averages:
Off. Rtg: 103, 105, 107, (109)
Def. Rtg: 108, 105, 104, (103.3)
Pace: 93, 95, 97, (99)

For comparison here’s a review of GSW 2015 – 2016: 
Off. Rtg: 114
Def. Rtg: 104
Pace: 99

Year 1:
Brad Stevens (25-57)
PTS/G: 96.2 (26th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 100.7 (13th of 30)
Pace: 93.3 (17th of 30)
Off Rtg: 102.9 (27th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.7 (18th of 30)

Year 2:
Brad Stevens (40-42)
PTS/G: 101.4 (13th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.2 (21st of 30)
Pace: 95.8 (5th of 30)
Off Rtg: 104.7 (18th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 104.5 (12th of 30)

Year 3:
Brad Stevens (48-34)
PTS/G: 105.7 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 102.5 (13th of 30)
Pace: 98.5 (4th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.8 (10th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 103.6 (4th of 30)

More stats that might help evaluate coaching performance: W-L in close games, point differential, points scored after Timeouts, 4th quarter points for/allowed, players' statistical improvement, et cetera...

[bdm860]

I don't think you can really project much for coaches.  Although consider this COY voting trend:

2014: 0 votes
2015: 2 first, 4 second, 28 third place votes
2016: 5 first, 10 second, 19 third place votes

At this rate he should have at least 10+ first place votes, and 20+ second place votes next year!    Good enough for a solid 3rd place.



Here's another, more serious, interesting thought about Brad Stevens though, he has a good chance to be coaching the Eastern All-Stars this coming season.

Lue can't do it, because he did it last year, so assuming Cleveland is #1 in the East all year, it will go the 2nd place team in East, which the C's have an excellent shot of being.  Coaching the All-Star game in your 4th year is a pretty nice achievement, especially considering he was taking over a rebuilding team (unlike guys like Lue or Kerr who took over teams trying to win a championship).

[timpiker]

 Ot sure how to measure him.  Maybe how much Smart, Kelly, Brown..... improve....?

[coffee425]

Is it really more complicated than

• Wins
  
• Playoff Wins

[Dedalus]

Is that quote your signature or did you add that?

No, it's not much more complicated. I think the amount of teams Stevens can callout opponents' end of game plays is a pretty good measure of progress, though.

There's 4 categories I used above. 4 is how many fingers an average hand has before including the thumb.

I hope my post wasn't too complicated. Wins and losses are posted, too. Sorry, let's get back to nitpicking about trading with the worst franchise in the NBA, trashing twitter accounts, and, shtting on our Olympians.

[greece66]

I enjoyed reading the metrics as well as the projections; this is a nice conversation topic and I sure prefer it to opening another thread about Noel.

One thing though, these metrics measure team performance; the coach is just one of the variables that influence team performance: roster, injuries, luck, trades are other factors that also have an impact. I am not sure we can quantify a coach's impact on a team's metrics.

[Clench123]

Best coach in the league.