The # 1 seed in the East might not be unattainable this year

[jpotter33]

To me, the East breaks down into four tiers:

Tier 1 - Conference Favorites:
Cleveland

Tier 2 - Conference Contenders (In order):
Boston, Toronto, Indy

Tier 3 - Conference Playoff Potentials:
Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Chicago, Washington, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami, Orlando

Tier 4 - Lottery Bound for sure:
Brooklyn, Philly

So while I think we'll mostly be battling for the nunber two spot all season long with Toronto and Indy, I think we're in the driver's seat for that spot with an expected record drop in Toronto and Indy needing time to integrate their new additions.

However, at this stage in Lebron's career and with the team's significant injury history, I do not expect the Cavs to win any more than 60 games max this year, which is right around the average record for the East winners the past 25 years or so. Hell, they've only won 53 and 57 respectively the last two years. Lebron has always prioritized rest over the highest possible seed, since he knows he can win anywhere, so I expect more and more rest from his team the older that he gets with as many miles as he already has on his body. Further, Lebron is due for a significant injury that he's largely avoided throughout his career, so there's always the possibility that a significant injury pops up with Lebron or one of the other injury-prone main guys on the Cavs, e.g. Irving, Love, etc.

What's more, though still overall weaker than the West in top talent, to me the East significantly improved as a whole and in depth this summer with essentially 12 teams with legitimate playoff hopes. When the conference is deeper like that, it creates a smoothing effect with the top records, meaning overall lower win counts in the top of the bracket. This has actually happened several times in the East, too, and there's been several years where the best East records were in the low to mid 50's in wins with several other teams in the 50's, too.

That's the situation I see playing out this season with a lower overall top East record and several teams in the low to mid 50's. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a two or even three-team race for the top seed late into the season, similar to how Toronto pushed Cleveland to the end this past season.

How much would getting the top seed mean for our chances? For a younger team without a ton of playoff experience and with a great home court advantage, I think it'd be pretty substantial for us.

[loco_91]

Interesting post. I tend to agree. Of course, it doesn't matter a whole lot of we get the 1 or 2 seed; either way, we're facing Lebron in the ECF, and most likely the series does not go seven games.

[GreenWarrior]

I think Cleveland and Indy are the top 2, with Tor. a close tie with indy. I think Tor is a team that is ultimately going to go as far as they can go(and that's not far) and there will be a sudden decline...could be this yr.

if Washington ever got their heads outta their butt they could easily be in top 2-3. and Detroit could be there as well if they don't squander what they accomplished last yr. and actually build off that.

all of these teams are better than the C's with the exception of maybe Detroit simply because they have that stud superstar. Tor. still doesn't impress me either but I put them far and away ahead of us because Lowry and Derozen tend to outplay our backcourt pretty consistently.

so far during the Stevens era this team has benefitted from a weak east. this yr. is no different imo if the east is as strong as it could potentially be I could easily see this team just out of the playoffs.

[jpotter33]

I think Cleveland and Indy are the top 2, with Tor. a close tie with indy. I think Tor is a team that is ultimately going to go as far as they can go(and that's not far) and there will be a sudden decline...could be this yr.

if Washington ever got their heads outta their butt they could easily be in top 2-3. and Detroit could be there as well if they don't squander what they accomplished last yr. and actually build off that.

all of these teams are better than the C's with the exception of maybe Detroit simply because they have that stud superstar. Tor. still doesn't impress me either but I put them far and away ahead of us because Lowry and Derozen tend to outplay our backcourt pretty consistently.

so far during the Stevens era this team has benefitted from a weak east. this yr. is no different imo if the east is as strong as it could potentially be I could easily see this team just out of the playoffs.

Huh? Lol That's an incredibly pessimistic view, especially due to the fact that more than likely we improved the most in the East with the additions of Horford and Brown. Indy made sin good moves, but none of them were good enough to put them over us, in my opinion. And Toronto had a record season last year, so it's doubtful that they do it again, especially since they one got worse or at best stayed the same with their moves this summer. And we legitimately swept the Wiz last year, so outside of Toronto, I don't see any credible argument for a team being better than us in the East from that grouping.

[jpotter33]

Interesting post. I tend to agree. Of course, it doesn't matter a whole lot of we get the 1 or 2 seed; either way, we're facing Lebron in the ECF, and most likely the series does not go seven games.

I think people will really be surprised by how much Horford makes us better. Cleveland is still a better team, but we're not that far behind them. It'd be a pretty competitive series  Boston vs Cleveland, largely because we matchup well with them.

Further, when we play either KO/JJ and HORFORD at the 4/5, our offense is going to be so much better and more reliable than it was last year due to the much better spacing we'll have. That's an absolute PERFECT set up for IT, because he'll have so much room to penetrate. And when they collapse, he'll have four knockdown three point shooters to dish it too. When we play AJ/JJ and HORFORD, our defense will be significantly better and more mobile than last year. And all of that is beyond the fact that HORFORD will take more attention and focus off of IT and the rest of our guys, which just opens them up further and doesn't let other teams game plan so heavily on IT.

Horford was an absolute perfect addition to our squad, and we're going to surprise a lot of people this year with an improved overall game.

[RJ87]

I think Cleveland and Indy are the top 2, with Tor. a close tie with indy. I think Tor is a team that is ultimately going to go as far as they can go(and that's not far) and there will be a sudden decline...could be this yr.

if Washington ever got their heads outta their butt they could easily be in top 2-3. and Detroit could be there as well if they don't squander what they accomplished last yr. and actually build off that.

all of these teams are better than the C's with the exception of maybe Detroit simply because they have that stud superstar. Tor. still doesn't impress me either but I put them far and away ahead of us because Lowry and Derozen tend to outplay our backcourt pretty consistently.

so far during the Stevens era this team has benefitted from a weak east. this yr. is no different imo if the east is as strong as it could potentially be I could easily see this team just out of the playoffs.

Huh? Lol That's an incredibly pessimistic view, especially due to the fact that more than likely we improved the most in the East with the additions of Horford and Brown. Indy made sin good moves, but none of them were good enough to put them over us, in my opinion. And Toronto had a record season last year, so it's doubtful that they do it again, especially since they one got worse or at best stayed the same with their moves this summer. And we legitimately swept the Wiz last year, so outside of Toronto, I don't see any credible argument for a team being better than us in the East from that grouping.

I think you're really optimistic and he's really pessimistic. I'm kind of in between. I think we'll be in contention for the 2 spot, along with Toronto and Indy. Toronto has a good foundation, they'll get a healthy Demarre, another year of growth from Jonas Valanciunas, I don't expect them to have to have a major drop off. With Indy, they've got a top 10 player in Paul George, and have put solid pieces around him (I think Thad especially will have an impact). If Myles Turner improves, they'll be good enough for a top 4 seed.

As for us, I don't think Jaylen Brown will have nearly the impact you think he will this season. I'm not saying he won't eventually be a good player, but expecting him to have any real impact on our seeding is setting yourself up for disappointment. Al obviously is a big addition, but rebounding is still a major question mark for us and we didn't address the loss of playmaking from the departure of Evan unless you really expect Marcus or Rozier to make that leap.

Now, if Cleveland decides to coast during the regular season and everything breaks right for us in terms of player development, then sure,  #1 is possible. But I think #2 is far more realistic.

[jpotter33]

I think Cleveland and Indy are the top 2, with Tor. a close tie with indy. I think Tor is a team that is ultimately going to go as far as they can go(and that's not far) and there will be a sudden decline...could be this yr.

if Washington ever got their heads outta their butt they could easily be in top 2-3. and Detroit could be there as well if they don't squander what they accomplished last yr. and actually build off that.

all of these teams are better than the C's with the exception of maybe Detroit simply because they have that stud superstar. Tor. still doesn't impress me either but I put them far and away ahead of us because Lowry and Derozen tend to outplay our backcourt pretty consistently.

so far during the Stevens era this team has benefitted from a weak east. this yr. is no different imo if the east is as strong as it could potentially be I could easily see this team just out of the playoffs.

Huh? Lol That's an incredibly pessimistic view, especially due to the fact that more than likely we improved the most in the East with the additions of Horford and Brown. Indy made sin good moves, but none of them were good enough to put them over us, in my opinion. And Toronto had a record season last year, so it's doubtful that they do it again, especially since they one got worse or at best stayed the same with their moves this summer. And we legitimately swept the Wiz last year, so outside of Toronto, I don't see any credible argument for a team being better than us in the East from that grouping.

I think you're really optimistic and he's really pessimistic. I'm kind of in between. I think we'll be in contention for the 2 spot, along with Toronto and Indy. Toronto has a good foundation, they'll get a healthy Demarre, another year of growth from Jonas Valanciunas, I don't expect them to have to have a major drop off. With Indy, they've got a top 10 player in Paul George, and have put solid pieces around him (I think Thad especially will have an impact). If Myles Turner improves, they'll be good enough for a top 4 seed.

As for us, I don't think Jaylen Brown will have nearly the impact you think he will this season. I'm not saying he won't eventually be a good player, but expecting him to have any real impact on our seeding is setting yourself up for disappointment. Al obviously is a big addition, but rebounding is still a major question mark for us and we didn't address the loss of playmaking from the departure of Evan unless you really expect Marcus or Rozier to make that leap.

Now, if Cleveland decides to coast during the regular season and everything breaks right for us in terms of player development, then sure,  #1 is possible. But I think #2 is far more realistic.

I mean, that's pretty much what I'm saying. We'll be in a race for number two all year, but it won't surprise me at all if the top spot is right there available, too, especially because that Cleveland team seems destined for a championship hangover year (all the controversy last year, Lebron having the monkey off his back with a title in Cleveland, young guys, Kyrie in Olympics, too, etc.).

And I don't think Brown will have a huge impact for us. It'll probably be significantly smaller than Smart's rookie impact, which was admittedly pretty significant. But I think it's clear that the additions of Horford and Brown are much more beneficial than the losses of Turner and Sully, though I am expecting big jumps from both Rozier and Smart. I also think our potential rebounding issues have been overblown with the loss of Sully. HORFORD is a very good rebounder who has seemingly always shared the floor with another excellent rebounding big (Smith, Milsap, etc.). Amir is also a good rebounder, too, so I only really see it as a potential issue if KO starts.

[Moranis]

Cleveland will win at least 55 games unless James gets hurt (not just resting every now and then).  I don't expect them to be over 60 though since they will rest and Love and Irving aren't exactly pictures of health.

Boston will not win 55 games, so Boston will not be the 1 seed.

[blink]

I wouldn't be completely surprised if we ended up the 2 seed behind Clev. at the end of the year.  But I would be absolutely shocked if we ended up as the #1 seed. 

I think we are probably anywhere between a 2-4 seed this year.  I don't see us as a lot different from last year.  Yes Horford makes us a bit better, I like him as a player.  But I don't think his addition makes us compete for the top seed with the Cavs this year.

[Rakulp]

One injury to Cleveland...boom, we're in the hunt for #1 seed.

One injury to us...middle of the pack.

Two injuries to us...maybe miss the playoffs completely, depending on who is injured and for how long.

Bottom line...paper looks good, but games are played for a reason.  I like our chances this year.

Rak

[SparzWizard]

One injury to Cleveland...boom, we're in the hunt for #1 seed.

One injury to us...middle of the pack.

Two injuries to us...maybe miss the playoffs completely, depending on who is injured and for how long.

Bottom line...paper looks good, but games are played for a reason.  I like our chances this year.

Rak

One injury to Cleveland like Kevin Love isn't too bad lol. They've gotten a bunch of big men in their team to backup.

[Ogaju]

why is the thread heading phrased as a double negative? Why not just say the #1 seen is attainable?

[GetLucky]

why is the thread heading phrased as a double negative? Why not just say the #1 seen is attainable?

To communicate an extra air of uncertainty, as to be more hesitantly suggestive than blindly optimistic. The connotation of a double negative is just slightly different than a positive statement.

Ah, the wonderful nuances of the English language!

[RockinRyA]

To me, the East breaks down into four tiers:

Tier 1 - Conference Favorites:
Cleveland

Tier 2 - Conference Contenders (In order):
Boston, Toronto, Indy

Tier 3 - Conference Playoff Potentials:
Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Chicago, Washington, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami, Orlando

Tier 4 - Lottery Bound for sure:
Brooklyn, Philly

So while I think we'll mostly be battling for the nunber two spot all season long with Toronto and Indy, I think we're in the driver's seat for that spot with an expected record drop in Toronto and Indy needing time to integrate their new additions.

However, at this stage in Lebron's career and with the team's significant injury history, I do not expect the Cavs to win any more than 60 games max this year, which is right around the average record for the East winners the past 25 years or so. Hell, they've only won 53 and 57 respectively the last two years. Lebron has always prioritized rest over the highest possible seed, since he knows he can win anywhere, so I expect more and more rest from his team the older that he gets with as many miles as he already has on his body. Further, Lebron is due for a significant injury that he's largely avoided throughout his career, so there's always the possibility that a significant injury pops up with Lebron or one of the other injury-prone main guys on the Cavs, e.g. Irving, Love, etc.

What's more, though still overall weaker than the West in top talent, to me the East significantly improved as a whole and in depth this summer with essentially 12 teams with legitimate playoff hopes. When the conference is deeper like that, it creates a smoothing effect with the top records, meaning overall lower win counts in the top of the bracket. This has actually happened several times in the East, too, and there's been several years where the best East records were in the low to mid 50's in wins with several other teams in the 50's, too.

That's the situation I see playing out this season with a lower overall top East record and several teams in the low to mid 50's. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a two or even three-team race for the top seed late into the season, similar to how Toronto pushed Cleveland to the end this past season.

How much would getting the top seed mean for our chances? For a younger team without a ton of playoff experience and with a great home court advantage, I think it'd be pretty substantial for us.

TP jpotter33

[SparzWizard]

To me, the East breaks down into four tiers:

Tier 1 - Conference Favorites:
Cleveland

Tier 2 - Conference Contenders (In order):
Boston, Toronto, Indy

Tier 3 - Conference Playoff Potentials:
Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Chicago, Washington, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami, Orlando

Tier 4 - Lottery Bound for sure:
Brooklyn, Philly

So while I think we'll mostly be battling for the nunber two spot all season long with Toronto and Indy, I think we're in the driver's seat for that spot with an expected record drop in Toronto and Indy needing time to integrate their new additions.

However, at this stage in Lebron's career and with the team's significant injury history, I do not expect the Cavs to win any more than 60 games max this year, which is right around the average record for the East winners the past 25 years or so. Hell, they've only won 53 and 57 respectively the last two years. Lebron has always prioritized rest over the highest possible seed, since he knows he can win anywhere, so I expect more and more rest from his team the older that he gets with as many miles as he already has on his body. Further, Lebron is due for a significant injury that he's largely avoided throughout his career, so there's always the possibility that a significant injury pops up with Lebron or one of the other injury-prone main guys on the Cavs, e.g. Irving, Love, etc.

What's more, though still overall weaker than the West in top talent, to me the East significantly improved as a whole and in depth this summer with essentially 12 teams with legitimate playoff hopes. When the conference is deeper like that, it creates a smoothing effect with the top records, meaning overall lower win counts in the top of the bracket. This has actually happened several times in the East, too, and there's been several years where the best East records were in the low to mid 50's in wins with several other teams in the 50's, too.

That's the situation I see playing out this season with a lower overall top East record and several teams in the low to mid 50's. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a two or even three-team race for the top seed late into the season, similar to how Toronto pushed Cleveland to the end this past season.

How much would getting the top seed mean for our chances? For a younger team without a ton of playoff experience and with a great home court advantage, I think it'd be pretty substantial for us.

TP jpotter33

jpotter33 pretty much nailed it lol. TP.