How bad is Okafor's defense...

[LarBrd33]

Okafor's defense is bad, but also overblown.  Very few rookies are useful on defense.

His defense is very bad when compared to other big men rookies in the past few decades. 

At 20, in his second year in the league, Kendrick Perkins had a defensive win share of .8 while Okafor as a 20-year-old rookie had a defensive win share of .9.  Granted, Okafor played 30 minutes a game for a horrible Sixer team and Perk averaged 9 minutes a game for a decent Celtics team, but I think the comparison remains somewhat valid.

Perkins, a guy who could never do ANYTHING but play defense at a very good to elite level, was so awful defensively at 20 that he could barely get off the bench for a 45 win team whose veteran bigs were Raef LaFrentz and Mark Blount.  Okafor may always suck at defense but throwing him on the trash heap at his age is a little excessive.

Mike

Do you understand how win shares work?  It's not a rate-based stat.  (WS/48 is.)  So you are saying if Okafor and Perkins both scored 1000 points in a season, but Perkins did so in a third of the playing time, they are comparable scorers.  Perkins had positive defensive stats in his age-20 season.

Here is what Nylon Calculus (a great website whose managing editor was recently hired as an analytics consultant by the Bucks) had to say about his defense late last season:

Although Jahlil Okafor’s offense has shown promise, his defense has lagged behind significantly. His rim protection statistics have been in the negative, as has his defensive Player Tracking Plus Minus.[1. Through February 26, Okafor had “saved” -0.13 points per 36 minutes. Through February 8, he had posted a -1.52 defensive PT-PM.] Entering the week, defensive Real Plus Minus had him at -1.86 — second lowest among centers — which happened to mirror his relative standing in defensive Box Plus/Minus (-1.6).

This latter figure is worth placing in historical context. Compared to other rookie big men with at least 1,000 minutes since the 1973-74 season, Okafor’s DBPM ranks among the bottom 10. Naturally, such a performance leads us to wonder how similar players have fared in subsequent years — that is, whether their defense eventually improved.

They continue on to say that players improve and actually close the gap on the less defensively challenged big men.  Okafor is never going to catch up to the better defenders, but he won't be terrible either, and if he also continues to improve on the offensive end, he will end up with a very long and very good career.

I don't think you read the same article that I read.

There are, of course, a few instances in which players elevated their defensive games from negatives to positives. Most notably, Charles Smith, JaVale McGee, and Tony Battie were squarely above 0 DBPM by their third years, then moved up to roughly +2 or so by their fifth years. But bear in mind that they started off from higher baselines than Okafor’s current performance, and their career DBPMs of +1 put them at just right around the typical mark for big men. While the best-case scenarios reach average defensive production, those who are farther behind (like James Edwards, Eddy Curry, and Chris Mihm) tend to stay below 0 both in individual seasons and in their overall careers.

It seems much more likely than not that Jahlil Okafor at his peak will have a negative contribution on defense.  Okafor is so bad that his ceiling might be average and most players don't reach their ceiling, which is another term for best-case scenario.

I read the article and I never said he would be good, only that he would improve and close the gap, which is exactly what that chart shows i.e. the terrible defenders close the gap on the good defenders (which inherently makes sense since it is easier to go from awful to poor than from good to great).  Okafor is never going to be a good defender, but he will get better and won't be terrible, which is exactly what your historical evidence shows.

Don't you think that historical examples might not be the best guide since the game, particularly the way a big now had to defend on the perimeter, has changed considerably? Being a slow footed big and defending the interior is a far cry from being asked to defend bigs that can stretch the floor, especially during high PNR where it's imperative for a big to be mobile enough to show, hedge, recover, etc.

I don't buy that rhetoric at all.  It just isn't born out in reality.  Using rpg and those guys that classify as centers, the top 5 centers in the NBA were Drummond, Jordan, Whiteside, Howard, and Cousins.  Of those guys, Cousins is the only one that regularly shot 3 pointers.  The next five rpg leaders were Gobert, P Gasol, Towns, Gortat, and Pachulia.  Towns and Gasol shot about 1 a game, the other guys basically none at all.   I think this notion that the traditional big man is a thing of the past just isn't all that accurate, especially since Cousins, Drummond, Jordan, Whiteside, Gobert, and Towns are all before or just entering their prime.  BTW, the next 5 rpg leaders were Valanciunas, TThompson, Vucevic, Monroe, and Noah (again 4 of the 5 before or just entering their prime).  Not a single outside shooter in that group, which only further reiterates the point.

But let's just assume there is this quantum shift to the perimeter that would make Okafor struggle even more defensively as opposed to historical metrics, wouldn't the reverse also be true?  How are the new age bigs going to guard a traditional back to the basket big as skilled as Okafor is?  It works both ways.

I've said it in one of the other few dozen threads started by fans obsessing over Okafor and desperate hoping that their ceaseless negging will somehow help him land in Boston - but at some point a decent offensive big will enter the league and completely eat it alive.   ANyone who thinks that a guy like Shaq or Hakeem would fail in the modern NBA doesn't understand the basic mechanics of this sport.   Just because we haven't seen any quality post players doesn't mean they can't succeed.  For what it's worth, Duncan was about as close as it gets to a old school post player and the Spurs have had unparalleled success over the past 20 years because of it.  Even approaching his 40s he was able to make a consistent offensive impact on a constant contender.   We've even seen lower-level talents like Al Jefferson and Brook Lopez (neither of which anyone would confuse with the greats of the past) use their size and traditional post skills to be the focal-point offensively on playoff teams. 

That doesn't mean Jahlil Okafor will be that guy.  But he shows all the signs of developing into a dominant post player.   We'll see how much of an impact he makes, and how improved his defense looks, several years from now when he starts to enter his prime.  I'm not using his rookie season on a historically bad (intentionally terrible) roster as the definitive statement on his long-term success.    Philly has themselves a gem of a prospect.  On the outside looking in, it's going to be interesting to see what kind of sense they can make of that roster over the next few years and how all those star prospects develop.

In that other post I also said that this was absurd. People dont agree with you. you should be used to this by now.

being wrong in a group doesn't make people right.

I've been telling people for a full year that "Suicide Squad" would score mid 40s on metacritic and Ghostbusters would end up with decent reviews.  You know how often I got down voted on Reddit for my "absurd" prediction?   My god I can't even count how many people thought I was a lunatic for that prediction.

Surprise surprise.  Suicide has a 47 on Metacritic.  Ghostbusters scored a 60.   Nailed it.

Group bias gonna group bias. *Shrug*

[Celtics18]

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar. 

Well yes, technically every player has a chance to be a superstar.   

Not really.

If Olynyk averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds for Gonzaga when he was Okafor's age... and after 2 more years of College and 3 years of NBA basketball prompted someone to write a convoluted post comparing him to Okafor... does this mean that 5 years from now Okafor, on the Olynyk developmental trajectory, will be averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game?

No, it doesn't mean that.  It's an obviously silly prediction.

Is it, though?  Alls I know is that Okafor was averaging 17 and 7 efficiently as a pro with arguably the worst supporting cast in history at the same age Olynyk was still in diapers putting up 5 and 8 for a lower level College program.

Now look at Oly all grows up putting up decent numbers as a bonafied NBA player.   If Okafor follows that same trajectory, maybe he'll end up averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game.

We'll just have to wait 1/20th of a Century until Okafor is Olynyk's age and see what happens.   We'll have to put the year 2021 on our calendars.  That's when Okafor will be at the same point Oly is at.

Man... 2021... that's a long time from now.   That's the same year as "Johnny Mnemonic":



By then, NBA players might play virtually using uniforms that look like this:



In fact, the above image might actually be a picture from the future of Kelly Olynyk's defensive stance in the year 2021 - assuming that old man Olynyk will still be in the league by then.

On a side note, I actually had a roommate that got drunk one night, went on ebay, and bought Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Yes... THE jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Through some weird chain of events, the jacket ended up in my possession.   You heard that right, boys... You're chatting with someone who once owned Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic". 

We even used the jacket in 72 hour film competition we did several years ago.  Our completely terrible improvised mockumentary followed a YouTube celebrity, his talent agent, and his loyal manservant.   Here's a brief excerpt from the trainwreck of a student film... skip to 46 second mark to see Ice-T's Johnny Mnemnonic jacket circa 2021 in it's full glory:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3UZ3va8Syo

So yeah, man... we don't know.  For all we know, this is what Jahlil Okafor's 76ers uniform will look like in 2021 when he's in the midst of his hall of fame career:



We'll just have to wait 1/200th of a Millennium to find out.

Very cute post.  It does support my point, though, that predicting that Okafor will average 50 and 30 some day based on what Kelly Olynyk was doing when he was Jah's age is a bit of silly fantasy/science fiction.

I know that you obviously aren't predicting that and that you are just being silly.

Is it more or less ridiculous than comparing a kid who was a couple years removed from High School to a grown man who has now spent 4 years in College and 3 years playing pro basketball?  There's no telling what scrub-a-dub 20 year old Gonzaga bench warmer Kelly Olynyk would have done defensively had he been playing on that freak-show of a 76ers roster last year. 

And genuinely, I don't think anyone here can accurately predict what kind of stats Jahlil Okafor will be putting up in whatever is left of the NBA when he's Oly's age post Civil War in the midst of Emperor Trump's 2nd "Official" term in the year 2021.  I think it's rather presumptive of you to assume that the seceded States will even have NBA teams or that the residents of those states will be able/allowed to participate in such a frivolous Sport.  Something tells me that the Rebellion will have more pressing matters than to deal with Jahlil Okafor's individual dominance on the 76ers.

I agree that comparing Kelly Olynyk to Jahlil Okafor isn't all that useful considering they are radically different style players and Kelly was already considerably older when he entered the league.

As I've stated many times, though, my main concerns about Okafor aren't even on the defensive end.  I'm actually more concerned about his offense.  The fact that he's such a high usage player who does nothing to space the floor, doesn't roll to the rim, is basically not a threat off the ball coupled with the fact that he's a poor passer with a terrible assist to turnover ratio is concerning.

How does a guy like that help an offense?  He needs to improve a lot as a passer and a catch and shoot player to not be a complete black hole offensively.  I'm not convinced he can do that.  His on court/off court numbers at BasketballReference say his team is +7.5 point per 100 possessions better offensively when he's off the floor than when he's on it.

I would never advise taking stats like that as telling the whole story, but when you consider all the other numbers concerning Jah Okafor's performance, that number isn't all that surprising.

It's easy to just say "well, it's the Sixers so nothing anyone on that team did matters . . . But look, a 19 year old scored over 17 points a game!!! He's going to be a super star!!"

Sure, he scored a lot of points.  You could put that kid anywhere and he'd put up good scoring numbers, but I contend that based on his current skill-set, those scoring numbers are likely to come at the cost of good, productive offense.

[celticsclay]

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar. 

Well yes, technically every player has a chance to be a superstar.   

Not really.

If Olynyk averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds for Gonzaga when he was Okafor's age... and after 2 more years of College and 3 years of NBA basketball prompted someone to write a convoluted post comparing him to Okafor... does this mean that 5 years from now Okafor, on the Olynyk developmental trajectory, will be averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game?

No, it doesn't mean that.  It's an obviously silly prediction.

Is it, though?  Alls I know is that Okafor was averaging 17 and 7 efficiently as a pro with arguably the worst supporting cast in history at the same age Olynyk was still in diapers putting up 5 and 8 for a lower level College program.

Now look at Oly all grows up putting up decent numbers as a bonafied NBA player.   If Okafor follows that same trajectory, maybe he'll end up averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game.

We'll just have to wait 1/20th of a Century until Okafor is Olynyk's age and see what happens.   We'll have to put the year 2021 on our calendars.  That's when Okafor will be at the same point Oly is at.

Man... 2021... that's a long time from now.   That's the same year as "Johnny Mnemonic":



By then, NBA players might play virtually using uniforms that look like this:



In fact, the above image might actually be a picture from the future of Kelly Olynyk's defensive stance in the year 2021 - assuming that old man Olynyk will still be in the league by then.

On a side note, I actually had a roommate that got drunk one night, went on ebay, and bought Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Yes... THE jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Through some weird chain of events, the jacket ended up in my possession.   You heard that right, boys... You're chatting with someone who once owned Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic". 

We even used the jacket in 72 hour film competition we did several years ago.  Our completely terrible improvised mockumentary followed a YouTube celebrity, his talent agent, and his loyal manservant.   Here's a brief excerpt from the trainwreck of a student film... skip to 46 second mark to see Ice-T's Johnny Mnemnonic jacket circa 2021 in it's full glory:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3UZ3va8Syo

So yeah, man... we don't know.  For all we know, this is what Jahlil Okafor's 76ers uniform will look like in 2021 when he's in the midst of his hall of fame career:



We'll just have to wait 1/200th of a Millennium to find out.

Very cute post.  It does support my point, though, that predicting that Okafor will average 50 and 30 some day based on what Kelly Olynyk was doing when he was Jah's age is a bit of silly fantasy/science fiction.

I know that you obviously aren't predicting that and that you are just being silly.

Is it more or less ridiculous than comparing a kid who was a couple years removed from High School to a grown man who has now spent 4 years in College and 3 years playing pro basketball?  There's no telling what scrub-a-dub 20 year old Gonzaga bench warmer Kelly Olynyk would have done defensively had he been playing on that freak-show of a 76ers roster last year. 

And genuinely, I don't think anyone here can accurately predict what kind of stats Jahlil Okafor will be putting up in whatever is left of the NBA when he's Oly's age post Civil War in the midst of Emperor Trump's 2nd "Official" term in the year 2021.  I think it's rather presumptive of you to assume that the seceded States will even have NBA teams or that the residents of those states will be able/allowed to participate in such a frivolous Sport.  Something tells me that the Rebellion will have more pressing matters than to deal with Jahlil Okafor's individual dominance on the 76ers.

I agree that comparing Kelly Olynyk to Jahlil Okafor isn't all that useful considering they are radically different style players and Kelly was already considerably older when he entered the league.

As I've stated many times, though, my main concerns about Okafor aren't even on the defensive end.  I'm actually more concerned about his offense.  The fact that he's such a high usage player who does nothing to space the floor, doesn't roll to the rim, is basically not a threat off the ball coupled with the fact that he's a poor passer with a terrible assist to turnover ratio is concerning.

How does a guy like that help an offense?  He needs to improve a lot as a passer and a catch and shoot player to not be a complete black hole offensively.  I'm not convinced he can do that.  His on court/off court numbers at BasketballReference say his team is +7.5 point per 100 possessions better offensively when he's off the floor than when he's on it.

I would never advise taking stats like that as telling the whole story, but when you consider all the other numbers concerning Jah Okafor's performance, that number isn't all that surprising.

It's easy to just say "well, it's the Sixers so nothing anyone on that team did matters . . . But look, a 19 year old scored over 17 points a game!!! He's going to be a super star!!"

Sure, he scored a lot of points.  You could put that kid anywhere and he'd put up good scoring numbers, but I contend that based on his current skill-set, those scoring numbers are likely to come at the cost of good, productive offense.

all really good points.

[LarBrd33]

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar. 

Well yes, technically every player has a chance to be a superstar.   

Not really.

If Olynyk averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds for Gonzaga when he was Okafor's age... and after 2 more years of College and 3 years of NBA basketball prompted someone to write a convoluted post comparing him to Okafor... does this mean that 5 years from now Okafor, on the Olynyk developmental trajectory, will be averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game?

No, it doesn't mean that.  It's an obviously silly prediction.

Is it, though?  Alls I know is that Okafor was averaging 17 and 7 efficiently as a pro with arguably the worst supporting cast in history at the same age Olynyk was still in diapers putting up 5 and 8 for a lower level College program.

Now look at Oly all grows up putting up decent numbers as a bonafied NBA player.   If Okafor follows that same trajectory, maybe he'll end up averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game.

We'll just have to wait 1/20th of a Century until Okafor is Olynyk's age and see what happens.   We'll have to put the year 2021 on our calendars.  That's when Okafor will be at the same point Oly is at.

Man... 2021... that's a long time from now.   That's the same year as "Johnny Mnemonic":



By then, NBA players might play virtually using uniforms that look like this:



In fact, the above image might actually be a picture from the future of Kelly Olynyk's defensive stance in the year 2021 - assuming that old man Olynyk will still be in the league by then.

On a side note, I actually had a roommate that got drunk one night, went on ebay, and bought Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Yes... THE jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Through some weird chain of events, the jacket ended up in my possession.   You heard that right, boys... You're chatting with someone who once owned Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic". 

We even used the jacket in 72 hour film competition we did several years ago.  Our completely terrible improvised mockumentary followed a YouTube celebrity, his talent agent, and his loyal manservant.   Here's a brief excerpt from the trainwreck of a student film... skip to 46 second mark to see Ice-T's Johnny Mnemnonic jacket circa 2021 in it's full glory:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3UZ3va8Syo

So yeah, man... we don't know.  For all we know, this is what Jahlil Okafor's 76ers uniform will look like in 2021 when he's in the midst of his hall of fame career:



We'll just have to wait 1/200th of a Millennium to find out.

Very cute post.  It does support my point, though, that predicting that Okafor will average 50 and 30 some day based on what Kelly Olynyk was doing when he was Jah's age is a bit of silly fantasy/science fiction.

I know that you obviously aren't predicting that and that you are just being silly.

Is it more or less ridiculous than comparing a kid who was a couple years removed from High School to a grown man who has now spent 4 years in College and 3 years playing pro basketball?  There's no telling what scrub-a-dub 20 year old Gonzaga bench warmer Kelly Olynyk would have done defensively had he been playing on that freak-show of a 76ers roster last year. 

And genuinely, I don't think anyone here can accurately predict what kind of stats Jahlil Okafor will be putting up in whatever is left of the NBA when he's Oly's age post Civil War in the midst of Emperor Trump's 2nd "Official" term in the year 2021.  I think it's rather presumptive of you to assume that the seceded States will even have NBA teams or that the residents of those states will be able/allowed to participate in such a frivolous Sport.  Something tells me that the Rebellion will have more pressing matters than to deal with Jahlil Okafor's individual dominance on the 76ers.

I agree that comparing Kelly Olynyk to Jahlil Okafor isn't all that useful considering they are radically different style players and Kelly was already considerably older when he entered the league.

As I've stated many times, though, my main concerns about Okafor aren't even on the defensive end.  I'm actually more concerned about his offense.  The fact that he's such a high usage player who does nothing to space the floor, doesn't roll to the rim, is basically not a threat off the ball coupled with the fact that he's a poor passer with a terrible assist to turnover ratio is concerning.

How does a guy like that help an offense?  He needs to improve a lot as a passer and a catch and shoot player to not be a complete black hole offensively.  I'm not convinced he can do that.  His on court/off court numbers at BasketballReference say his team is +7.5 point per 100 possessions better offensively when he's off the floor than when he's on it.

I would never advise taking stats like that as telling the whole story, but when you consider all the other numbers concerning Jah Okafor's performance, that number isn't all that surprising.

It's easy to just say "well, it's the Sixers so nothing anyone on that team did matters . . . But look, a 19 year old scored over 17 points a game!!! He's going to be a super star!!"

Sure, he scored a lot of points.  You could put that kid anywhere and he'd put up good scoring numbers, but I contend that based on his current skill-set, those scoring numbers are likely to come at the cost of good, productive offense.

I'd be more inclined to brush off Okafor's rookie effectiveness if he was a mid-round pick or d-leaguer who just happened to luck into a whacky situation ala Alexey Shved.   But Okafor is known as one of the premiere prospects in the league, lead a College team to a national championship as a freshman, shows incredible gifts offensively, and only two years removed from high school was able to put up efficient scoring numbers while being doubled teamed while playing next to a historically bad supporting cast by design.  I'm giving the kid the benefit of the doubt for concerns about his motivation and I'm not sure there's much precedent to really look at his advanced stats with enough context to probably consider them.  I think anyone who spends effort digging deep into those advanced stats for his rookie season is wasting their time.  It would be like digging into Avery Bradley's advanced stats a rookie.  No point.  Anyways,  there's plenty of logical reasons to believe Okafor is going to develop into a very good player - possibly even a great player. 

[Bobshot]

Okafor is better than Zeller--and cheaper salary-wise--though his asking price is probably the stumbling block right now.

There aren't many players in the league that are good both defensively and offensively. That's why the Celtics are a little short on offense--they value defense more.

Projecting a young player like Okafor can be tricky. He does appear to have some offensive skills, and he can rebound and block shots better than Zeller. I don't think he's any worse than Zeller defensively. His advantage is he's younger and has upside. Hard to project him. It could well depend on his coaching and how he's used. These kids have had very little coaching, and it's possible Stevens could make him a better player.

Ainge made his decision to pay Zeller more money than most of his starters next year. That could have repercussions in the locker room. I don't think it was a good decision. We'll see.

[celticsclay]

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar. 

Well yes, technically every player has a chance to be a superstar.   

Not really.

If Olynyk averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds for Gonzaga when he was Okafor's age... and after 2 more years of College and 3 years of NBA basketball prompted someone to write a convoluted post comparing him to Okafor... does this mean that 5 years from now Okafor, on the Olynyk developmental trajectory, will be averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game?

No, it doesn't mean that.  It's an obviously silly prediction.

Is it, though?  Alls I know is that Okafor was averaging 17 and 7 efficiently as a pro with arguably the worst supporting cast in history at the same age Olynyk was still in diapers putting up 5 and 8 for a lower level College program.

Now look at Oly all grows up putting up decent numbers as a bonafied NBA player.   If Okafor follows that same trajectory, maybe he'll end up averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game.

We'll just have to wait 1/20th of a Century until Okafor is Olynyk's age and see what happens.   We'll have to put the year 2021 on our calendars.  That's when Okafor will be at the same point Oly is at.

Man... 2021... that's a long time from now.   That's the same year as "Johnny Mnemonic":



By then, NBA players might play virtually using uniforms that look like this:



In fact, the above image might actually be a picture from the future of Kelly Olynyk's defensive stance in the year 2021 - assuming that old man Olynyk will still be in the league by then.

On a side note, I actually had a roommate that got drunk one night, went on ebay, and bought Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Yes... THE jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Through some weird chain of events, the jacket ended up in my possession.   You heard that right, boys... You're chatting with someone who once owned Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic". 

We even used the jacket in 72 hour film competition we did several years ago.  Our completely terrible improvised mockumentary followed a YouTube celebrity, his talent agent, and his loyal manservant.   Here's a brief excerpt from the trainwreck of a student film... skip to 46 second mark to see Ice-T's Johnny Mnemnonic jacket circa 2021 in it's full glory:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3UZ3va8Syo

So yeah, man... we don't know.  For all we know, this is what Jahlil Okafor's 76ers uniform will look like in 2021 when he's in the midst of his hall of fame career:



We'll just have to wait 1/200th of a Millennium to find out.

Very cute post.  It does support my point, though, that predicting that Okafor will average 50 and 30 some day based on what Kelly Olynyk was doing when he was Jah's age is a bit of silly fantasy/science fiction.

I know that you obviously aren't predicting that and that you are just being silly.

Is it more or less ridiculous than comparing a kid who was a couple years removed from High School to a grown man who has now spent 4 years in College and 3 years playing pro basketball?  There's no telling what scrub-a-dub 20 year old Gonzaga bench warmer Kelly Olynyk would have done defensively had he been playing on that freak-show of a 76ers roster last year. 

And genuinely, I don't think anyone here can accurately predict what kind of stats Jahlil Okafor will be putting up in whatever is left of the NBA when he's Oly's age post Civil War in the midst of Emperor Trump's 2nd "Official" term in the year 2021.  I think it's rather presumptive of you to assume that the seceded States will even have NBA teams or that the residents of those states will be able/allowed to participate in such a frivolous Sport.  Something tells me that the Rebellion will have more pressing matters than to deal with Jahlil Okafor's individual dominance on the 76ers.

I agree that comparing Kelly Olynyk to Jahlil Okafor isn't all that useful considering they are radically different style players and Kelly was already considerably older when he entered the league.

As I've stated many times, though, my main concerns about Okafor aren't even on the defensive end.  I'm actually more concerned about his offense.  The fact that he's such a high usage player who does nothing to space the floor, doesn't roll to the rim, is basically not a threat off the ball coupled with the fact that he's a poor passer with a terrible assist to turnover ratio is concerning.

How does a guy like that help an offense?  He needs to improve a lot as a passer and a catch and shoot player to not be a complete black hole offensively.  I'm not convinced he can do that.  His on court/off court numbers at BasketballReference say his team is +7.5 point per 100 possessions better offensively when he's off the floor than when he's on it.

I would never advise taking stats like that as telling the whole story, but when you consider all the other numbers concerning Jah Okafor's performance, that number isn't all that surprising.

It's easy to just say "well, it's the Sixers so nothing anyone on that team did matters . . . But look, a 19 year old scored over 17 points a game!!! He's going to be a super star!!"

Sure, he scored a lot of points.  You could put that kid anywhere and he'd put up good scoring numbers, but I contend that based on his current skill-set, those scoring numbers are likely to come at the cost of good, productive offense.

I'd be more inclined to brush off Okafor's rookie effectiveness if he was a mid-round pick or d-leaguer who just happened to luck into a whacky situation ala Alexey Shved.   But Okafor is known as one of the premiere prospects in the league, lead a College team to a national championship as a freshman, shows incredible gifts offensively, and only two years removed from high school was able to put up efficient scoring numbers while being doubled teamed while playing next to a historically bad supporting cast by design.  I'm giving the kid the benefit of the doubt for concerns about his motivation and I'm not sure there's much precedent to really look at his advanced stats with enough context to probably consider them.  I think anyone who spends effort digging deep into those advanced stats for his rookie season is wasting their time.  It would be like digging into Avery Bradley's advanced stats a rookie.  No point.  Anyways,  there's plenty of logical reasons to believe Okafor is going to develop into a very good player - possibly even a great player.

you say he is one of the premier prospects In he league but both hollinger and pelton didn't even rank him in the top 5 for his class. It was also highly reported (including by the people you have sworn by in the past) that he was offered for any top 6 pick in this
Last years draft. So don't act like it just people on Celtics blog that are not high on the guy. Some pretty respected basketball minds have also been leery of his as a top level prospect.

[Eddie20]

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar. 

Well yes, technically every player has a chance to be a superstar.   

Not really.

If Olynyk averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds for Gonzaga when he was Okafor's age... and after 2 more years of College and 3 years of NBA basketball prompted someone to write a convoluted post comparing him to Okafor... does this mean that 5 years from now Okafor, on the Olynyk developmental trajectory, will be averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game?

No, it doesn't mean that.  It's an obviously silly prediction.

Is it, though?  Alls I know is that Okafor was averaging 17 and 7 efficiently as a pro with arguably the worst supporting cast in history at the same age Olynyk was still in diapers putting up 5 and 8 for a lower level College program.

Now look at Oly all grows up putting up decent numbers as a bonafied NBA player.   If Okafor follows that same trajectory, maybe he'll end up averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game.

We'll just have to wait 1/20th of a Century until Okafor is Olynyk's age and see what happens.   We'll have to put the year 2021 on our calendars.  That's when Okafor will be at the same point Oly is at.

Man... 2021... that's a long time from now.   That's the same year as "Johnny Mnemonic":



By then, NBA players might play virtually using uniforms that look like this:



In fact, the above image might actually be a picture from the future of Kelly Olynyk's defensive stance in the year 2021 - assuming that old man Olynyk will still be in the league by then.

On a side note, I actually had a roommate that got drunk one night, went on ebay, and bought Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Yes... THE jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Through some weird chain of events, the jacket ended up in my possession.   You heard that right, boys... You're chatting with someone who once owned Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic". 

We even used the jacket in 72 hour film competition we did several years ago.  Our completely terrible improvised mockumentary followed a YouTube celebrity, his talent agent, and his loyal manservant.   Here's a brief excerpt from the trainwreck of a student film... skip to 46 second mark to see Ice-T's Johnny Mnemnonic jacket circa 2021 in it's full glory:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3UZ3va8Syo

So yeah, man... we don't know.  For all we know, this is what Jahlil Okafor's 76ers uniform will look like in 2021 when he's in the midst of his hall of fame career:



We'll just have to wait 1/200th of a Millennium to find out.

Very cute post.  It does support my point, though, that predicting that Okafor will average 50 and 30 some day based on what Kelly Olynyk was doing when he was Jah's age is a bit of silly fantasy/science fiction.

I know that you obviously aren't predicting that and that you are just being silly.

Is it more or less ridiculous than comparing a kid who was a couple years removed from High School to a grown man who has now spent 4 years in College and 3 years playing pro basketball?  There's no telling what scrub-a-dub 20 year old Gonzaga bench warmer Kelly Olynyk would have done defensively had he been playing on that freak-show of a 76ers roster last year. 

And genuinely, I don't think anyone here can accurately predict what kind of stats Jahlil Okafor will be putting up in whatever is left of the NBA when he's Oly's age post Civil War in the midst of Emperor Trump's 2nd "Official" term in the year 2021.  I think it's rather presumptive of you to assume that the seceded States will even have NBA teams or that the residents of those states will be able/allowed to participate in such a frivolous Sport.  Something tells me that the Rebellion will have more pressing matters than to deal with Jahlil Okafor's individual dominance on the 76ers.

I agree that comparing Kelly Olynyk to Jahlil Okafor isn't all that useful considering they are radically different style players and Kelly was already considerably older when he entered the league.

As I've stated many times, though, my main concerns about Okafor aren't even on the defensive end.  I'm actually more concerned about his offense.  The fact that he's such a high usage player who does nothing to space the floor, doesn't roll to the rim, is basically not a threat off the ball coupled with the fact that he's a poor passer with a terrible assist to turnover ratio is concerning.

How does a guy like that help an offense?  He needs to improve a lot as a passer and a catch and shoot player to not be a complete black hole offensively.  I'm not convinced he can do that.  His on court/off court numbers at BasketballReference say his team is +7.5 point per 100 possessions better offensively when he's off the floor than when he's on it.

I would never advise taking stats like that as telling the whole story, but when you consider all the other numbers concerning Jah Okafor's performance, that number isn't all that surprising.

It's easy to just say "well, it's the Sixers so nothing anyone on that team did matters . . . But look, a 19 year old scored over 17 points a game!!! He's going to be a super star!!"

Sure, he scored a lot of points.  You could put that kid anywhere and he'd put up good scoring numbers, but I contend that based on his current skill-set, those scoring numbers are likely to come at the cost of good, productive offense.

I'd be more inclined to brush off Okafor's rookie effectiveness if he was a mid-round pick or d-leaguer who just happened to luck into a whacky situation ala Alexey Shved.   But Okafor is known as one of the premiere prospects in the league, lead a College team to a national championship as a freshman, shows incredible gifts offensively, and only two years removed from high school was able to put up efficient scoring numbers while being doubled teamed while playing next to a historically bad supporting cast by design.  I'm giving the kid the benefit of the doubt for concerns about his motivation and I'm not sure there's much precedent to really look at his advanced stats with enough context to probably consider them.  I think anyone who spends effort digging deep into those advanced stats for his rookie season is wasting their time.  It would be like digging into Avery Bradley's advanced stats a rookie.  No point.  Anyways,  there's plenty of logical reasons to believe Okafor is going to develop into a very good player - possibly even a great player.

So you've openly admitted that you don't watch college, but now not only do you cite college, but high school too. Really? Only you.

[Ilikesports17]

Okafor's defense is bad, but also overblown.  Very few rookies are useful on defense.

His defense is very bad when compared to other big men rookies in the past few decades. 

At 20, in his second year in the league, Kendrick Perkins had a defensive win share of .8 while Okafor as a 20-year-old rookie had a defensive win share of .9.  Granted, Okafor played 30 minutes a game for a horrible Sixer team and Perk averaged 9 minutes a game for a decent Celtics team, but I think the comparison remains somewhat valid.

Perkins, a guy who could never do ANYTHING but play defense at a very good to elite level, was so awful defensively at 20 that he could barely get off the bench for a 45 win team whose veteran bigs were Raef LaFrentz and Mark Blount.  Okafor may always suck at defense but throwing him on the trash heap at his age is a little excessive.

Mike

Do you understand how win shares work?  It's not a rate-based stat.  (WS/48 is.)  So you are saying if Okafor and Perkins both scored 1000 points in a season, but Perkins did so in a third of the playing time, they are comparable scorers.  Perkins had positive defensive stats in his age-20 season.

Here is what Nylon Calculus (a great website whose managing editor was recently hired as an analytics consultant by the Bucks) had to say about his defense late last season:

Although Jahlil Okafor’s offense has shown promise, his defense has lagged behind significantly. His rim protection statistics have been in the negative, as has his defensive Player Tracking Plus Minus.[1. Through February 26, Okafor had “saved” -0.13 points per 36 minutes. Through February 8, he had posted a -1.52 defensive PT-PM.] Entering the week, defensive Real Plus Minus had him at -1.86 — second lowest among centers — which happened to mirror his relative standing in defensive Box Plus/Minus (-1.6).

This latter figure is worth placing in historical context. Compared to other rookie big men with at least 1,000 minutes since the 1973-74 season, Okafor’s DBPM ranks among the bottom 10. Naturally, such a performance leads us to wonder how similar players have fared in subsequent years — that is, whether their defense eventually improved.

They continue on to say that players improve and actually close the gap on the less defensively challenged big men.  Okafor is never going to catch up to the better defenders, but he won't be terrible either, and if he also continues to improve on the offensive end, he will end up with a very long and very good career.

I don't think you read the same article that I read.

There are, of course, a few instances in which players elevated their defensive games from negatives to positives. Most notably, Charles Smith, JaVale McGee, and Tony Battie were squarely above 0 DBPM by their third years, then moved up to roughly +2 or so by their fifth years. But bear in mind that they started off from higher baselines than Okafor’s current performance, and their career DBPMs of +1 put them at just right around the typical mark for big men. While the best-case scenarios reach average defensive production, those who are farther behind (like James Edwards, Eddy Curry, and Chris Mihm) tend to stay below 0 both in individual seasons and in their overall careers.

It seems much more likely than not that Jahlil Okafor at his peak will have a negative contribution on defense.  Okafor is so bad that his ceiling might be average and most players don't reach their ceiling, which is another term for best-case scenario.

I read the article and I never said he would be good, only that he would improve and close the gap, which is exactly what that chart shows i.e. the terrible defenders close the gap on the good defenders (which inherently makes sense since it is easier to go from awful to poor than from good to great).  Okafor is never going to be a good defender, but he will get better and won't be terrible, which is exactly what your historical evidence shows.

Don't you think that historical examples might not be the best guide since the game, particularly the way a big now had to defend on the perimeter, has changed considerably? Being a slow footed big and defending the interior is a far cry from being asked to defend bigs that can stretch the floor, especially during high PNR where it's imperative for a big to be mobile enough to show, hedge, recover, etc.

I don't buy that rhetoric at all.  It just isn't born out in reality.  Using rpg and those guys that classify as centers, the top 5 centers in the NBA were Drummond, Jordan, Whiteside, Howard, and Cousins.  Of those guys, Cousins is the only one that regularly shot 3 pointers.  The next five rpg leaders were Gobert, P Gasol, Towns, Gortat, and Pachulia.  Towns and Gasol shot about 1 a game, the other guys basically none at all.   I think this notion that the traditional big man is a thing of the past just isn't all that accurate, especially since Cousins, Drummond, Jordan, Whiteside, Gobert, and Towns are all before or just entering their prime.  BTW, the next 5 rpg leaders were Valanciunas, TThompson, Vucevic, Monroe, and Noah (again 4 of the 5 before or just entering their prime).  Not a single outside shooter in that group, which only further reiterates the point.

But let's just assume there is this quantum shift to the perimeter that would make Okafor struggle even more defensively as opposed to historical metrics, wouldn't the reverse also be true?  How are the new age bigs going to guard a traditional back to the basket big as skilled as Okafor is?  It works both ways.

I've said it in one of the other few dozen threads started by fans obsessing over Okafor and desperate hoping that their ceaseless negging will somehow help him land in Boston - but at some point a decent offensive big will enter the league and completely eat it alive.   ANyone who thinks that a guy like Shaq or Hakeem would fail in the modern NBA doesn't understand the basic mechanics of this sport.   Just because we haven't seen any quality post players doesn't mean they can't succeed.  For what it's worth, Duncan was about as close as it gets to a old school post player and the Spurs have had unparalleled success over the past 20 years because of it.  Even approaching his 40s he was able to make a consistent offensive impact on a constant contender.   We've even seen lower-level talents like Al Jefferson and Brook Lopez (neither of which anyone would confuse with the greats of the past) use their size and traditional post skills to be the focal-point offensively on playoff teams. 

That doesn't mean Jahlil Okafor will be that guy.  But he shows all the signs of developing into a dominant post player.   We'll see how much of an impact he makes, and how improved his defense looks, several years from now when he starts to enter his prime.  I'm not using his rookie season on a historically bad (intentionally terrible) roster as the definitive statement on his long-term success.    Philly has themselves a gem of a prospect.  On the outside looking in, it's going to be interesting to see what kind of sense they can make of that roster over the next few years and how all those star prospects develop.

In that other post I also said that this was absurd. People dont agree with you. you should be used to this by now.

being wrong in a group doesn't make people right.

I've been telling people for a full year that "Suicide Squad" would score mid 40s on metacritic and Ghostbusters would end up with decent reviews.  You know how often I got down voted on Reddit for my "absurd" prediction?   My god I can't even count how many people thought I was a lunatic for that prediction.

Surprise surprise.  Suicide has a 47 on Metacritic.  Ghostbusters scored a 60.   Nailed it.

Group bias gonna group bias. *Shrug*

cute but thats not at all what Im talking about. I did not say that a ton of people disagree with you therefore they are correct. I said that your ridiculous theory that people are trashing Okafor because they secretly love him and want him on the Celtics was absolutely absurd. Ill stand by that.

People dont like okafor. They really dont. Not sure why thats so tough to get.

[Moranis]

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar. 

Well yes, technically every player has a chance to be a superstar.   

Not really.

If Olynyk averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds for Gonzaga when he was Okafor's age... and after 2 more years of College and 3 years of NBA basketball prompted someone to write a convoluted post comparing him to Okafor... does this mean that 5 years from now Okafor, on the Olynyk developmental trajectory, will be averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game?

No, it doesn't mean that.  It's an obviously silly prediction.

Is it, though?  Alls I know is that Okafor was averaging 17 and 7 efficiently as a pro with arguably the worst supporting cast in history at the same age Olynyk was still in diapers putting up 5 and 8 for a lower level College program.

Now look at Oly all grows up putting up decent numbers as a bonafied NBA player.   If Okafor follows that same trajectory, maybe he'll end up averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game.

We'll just have to wait 1/20th of a Century until Okafor is Olynyk's age and see what happens.   We'll have to put the year 2021 on our calendars.  That's when Okafor will be at the same point Oly is at.

Man... 2021... that's a long time from now.   That's the same year as "Johnny Mnemonic":



By then, NBA players might play virtually using uniforms that look like this:



In fact, the above image might actually be a picture from the future of Kelly Olynyk's defensive stance in the year 2021 - assuming that old man Olynyk will still be in the league by then.

On a side note, I actually had a roommate that got drunk one night, went on ebay, and bought Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Yes... THE jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Through some weird chain of events, the jacket ended up in my possession.   You heard that right, boys... You're chatting with someone who once owned Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic". 

We even used the jacket in 72 hour film competition we did several years ago.  Our completely terrible improvised mockumentary followed a YouTube celebrity, his talent agent, and his loyal manservant.   Here's a brief excerpt from the trainwreck of a student film... skip to 46 second mark to see Ice-T's Johnny Mnemnonic jacket circa 2021 in it's full glory:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3UZ3va8Syo

So yeah, man... we don't know.  For all we know, this is what Jahlil Okafor's 76ers uniform will look like in 2021 when he's in the midst of his hall of fame career:



We'll just have to wait 1/200th of a Millennium to find out.

Very cute post.  It does support my point, though, that predicting that Okafor will average 50 and 30 some day based on what Kelly Olynyk was doing when he was Jah's age is a bit of silly fantasy/science fiction.

I know that you obviously aren't predicting that and that you are just being silly.

Is it more or less ridiculous than comparing a kid who was a couple years removed from High School to a grown man who has now spent 4 years in College and 3 years playing pro basketball?  There's no telling what scrub-a-dub 20 year old Gonzaga bench warmer Kelly Olynyk would have done defensively had he been playing on that freak-show of a 76ers roster last year. 

And genuinely, I don't think anyone here can accurately predict what kind of stats Jahlil Okafor will be putting up in whatever is left of the NBA when he's Oly's age post Civil War in the midst of Emperor Trump's 2nd "Official" term in the year 2021.  I think it's rather presumptive of you to assume that the seceded States will even have NBA teams or that the residents of those states will be able/allowed to participate in such a frivolous Sport.  Something tells me that the Rebellion will have more pressing matters than to deal with Jahlil Okafor's individual dominance on the 76ers.

I agree that comparing Kelly Olynyk to Jahlil Okafor isn't all that useful considering they are radically different style players and Kelly was already considerably older when he entered the league.

As I've stated many times, though, my main concerns about Okafor aren't even on the defensive end.  I'm actually more concerned about his offense.  The fact that he's such a high usage player who does nothing to space the floor, doesn't roll to the rim, is basically not a threat off the ball coupled with the fact that he's a poor passer with a terrible assist to turnover ratio is concerning.

How does a guy like that help an offense?  He needs to improve a lot as a passer and a catch and shoot player to not be a complete black hole offensively.  I'm not convinced he can do that.  His on court/off court numbers at BasketballReference say his team is +7.5 point per 100 possessions better offensively when he's off the floor than when he's on it.

I would never advise taking stats like that as telling the whole story, but when you consider all the other numbers concerning Jah Okafor's performance, that number isn't all that surprising.

It's easy to just say "well, it's the Sixers so nothing anyone on that team did matters . . . But look, a 19 year old scored over 17 points a game!!! He's going to be a super star!!"

Sure, he scored a lot of points.  You could put that kid anywhere and he'd put up good scoring numbers, but I contend that based on his current skill-set, those scoring numbers are likely to come at the cost of good, productive offense.

I'd be more inclined to brush off Okafor's rookie effectiveness if he was a mid-round pick or d-leaguer who just happened to luck into a whacky situation ala Alexey Shved.   But Okafor is known as one of the premiere prospects in the league, lead a College team to a national championship as a freshman, shows incredible gifts offensively, and only two years removed from high school was able to put up efficient scoring numbers while being doubled teamed while playing next to a historically bad supporting cast by design.  I'm giving the kid the benefit of the doubt for concerns about his motivation and I'm not sure there's much precedent to really look at his advanced stats with enough context to probably consider them.  I think anyone who spends effort digging deep into those advanced stats for his rookie season is wasting their time.  It would be like digging into Avery Bradley's advanced stats a rookie.  No point.  Anyways,  there's plenty of logical reasons to believe Okafor is going to develop into a very good player - possibly even a great player.

So you've openly admitted that you don't watch college, but now not only do you cite college, but high school too. Really? Only you.

um he didn't. Read his post again

[Eddie20]

I can't wait until we start the next thread "How bad is Noel's offense" and follow that with "How bad is Simmons' jumper".

[Celtics18]

Lar,

I agree there are logical reasons to believe Okafor will be a good player.  There are certainly also logical reasons to be wary that he will be a challenging player to feature on a team with aspirations of going deep into the playoffs.

He doesn't make sense to me as a player unless you feed him the ball in the post a lot and clear out and let him go to work.  I guess it's possible that five or six years down the road, an investment in him would pay off and you have low post stud who will lead you to the promised land.  I think that's kind of a big risk that will require a painful growth process.

Nerlens Noel, on the other hand, is a player whose strengths I see fitting in anywhere, even as he is still learning the game.  He rebounds, he defends well, runs the floor, and is an athletic freak who is an effective roller and garbage man around the rim. 

I'd much rather trade for Nerlens and let someone else take a chance on Okafor.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

I'd much rather trade for Nerlens and let someone else take a chance on Okafor.

Smartest thing anyone has said yet.

[greece66]

Yes, Okafor D is bad. It was bad in Duke and it still is bad in Philly.

Having said this he is only 20 yo, and an efficient scorer. If he can turn into a decent defender then he will be a top-10, if not better, player in his position one day.

As with all young players, nothing is guaranteed but it is not out of the realm of the possibility.

[Surferdad]

I can't wait until we start the next thread "How bad is Noel's offense" and follow that with "How bad is Simmons' jumper".

To be followed by "How bad are Coach Bo's posts?"

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

I can't wait until we start the next thread "How bad is Noel's offense" and follow that with "How bad is Simmons' jumper".

You forgot how bad is Embiid's English.