How bad is Okafor's defense...

[Celtics18]

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar. 

Well yes, technically every player has a chance to be a superstar.   

Not really.

If Olynyk averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds for Gonzaga when he was Okafor's age... and after 2 more years of College and 3 years of NBA basketball prompted someone to write a convoluted post comparing him to Okafor... does this mean that 5 years from now Okafor, on the Olynyk developmental trajectory, will be averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game?

No, it doesn't mean that.  It's an obviously silly prediction.

Jahlil Okafor does some things really well, namely score in the post.  It is completely reasonable for us to point out that this is pretty much all he does well at an NBA level.  As a prospective buyer, it's logical to be concerned about that.

Yes, he's young, yes, he's big, and yes, he's got a nice in the paint scoring game.  Despite his age, it's certainly not a given that he'll improve significantly in all the other areas in which his game is lacking.

[Ilikesports17]

Physically, he has the capacity to be an average defender.  Lack of experience was an issue.  Lack of surrounding talent was an issue.  I assume motivation was also a major issue.  Mentally, it had to be a challenge for a rookie to give it 110% out there knowing that there was a massive cloud hovering over on whether or not he'd factor into the team's long-term plans.  That, and it was widely out in the open the franchise was trying to tank and the team was made up of d-leaguers.  The whole situation was a sham.  Why bother?

I agree, people act like he is a ten year veteran.   The guy was a rookie.  I think honestly, the jury is still out on him.   He has room to improve.    If we had a guy who shot over 50% and went for 17 PPG and 7 RPG here we would be happy.   But since it happened elsewhere, the guy is a bum to some people in this thread.   That is double standard.  The guy has room to serve.   I think he would be an upgrade over what we had at Center last year.

When you're playing on a lottery team someone has to score. It's just the way things go. So putting such great emphasis on scoring is really shortsighted. However, put him on a playoff team and not only will the scoring decrease considerably due to less opportunity (last year Okafor had a higher usage rate than Chris Paul!), but he would still give you the same crappy defense and below average rebounding. His rebound percentage was lower than Tyler Zeller's.

Where he ranked in other analytics-

Defensive +/-  #354

Offensive +/- #361
 
Defensive win shares #256

Offensive win shares #302

Value over replacement player #466


Those numbers are pathetic. If you look at only his rankings, ignoring the name, you would think it was some journeymen/end of the bench guy. With the way teams value analytics it's no wonder they aren't exactly knocking down the Sixers doors with trade offers. Then factor in his off the court issues, recent knee surgery, documented laziness, and poor fit for today's modern game and it's easy to see why his value has plummeted.

His scoring efficiency though would have been significantly better such that his overall offensive rank would have improved significantly and his overall numbers might not have dropped that much.  I mean take a guy like Kyrie Irving, usage drops down about 2%, but his efficiency goes up significantly and ends up scoring about a point more on 1 less shot per game playing next to James that first year than playing without James the prior year. 

You can't just focus on the bad things when you talk about playing on a better team.  Almost across the board throughout the entire history of the league a player's efficiency increases when he has less of an offensive burden and is less a focus of the defense.  Given that Okafor was already an excellent mid-range shooting big man and a fairly respectable shooter overall as a rookie on a terrible team and as the #1 option, you would expect his efficiency to go into an elite range with him getting the ball in better positions to score (which would happen on a better team).  He would become an elite offensive player, something you can't just ignore in this situation.  Also a good bet that he would try a bit more defensively playing on a better team with better teammates.

He is?

10 to 16 feet
35%

16 to 23 feet
27%

FT shooting
68%

I don't consider 16 to 23 feet mid-range, that is long two.  But yeah 35% from 10 to 16 feet is quite good.  Better than Bradley, Crowder, Sullinger, Olynyk, Jerekbo, and many other Celtics.  That is from a 20 year old rookie on a terrible team.  And from 3 to 10 feet only Amir Johnson was better than Okafor last year (I'm not counting James Young since he had like 1 shot).  68.6% from the line from a rookie big man isn't bad at all.  Certainly not great, but not too bad either.  Puts him just below average of the centers last year.

Okafor doesn't have three point range, but he is a pretty solid overall shooter and that was as a rookie where he was the main focal point of defenses on one of the worst teams in NBA history.  You put him on a better team and the efficiency increases unless he is the one the incredibly rare players in NBA history whose efficiency gets worse as he ages and gets on better teams.

Statistically, is Marcus Smart's offense worse than Jahlil Okafor's defense?   On the flip side, is Jahlil Okafor's offense statistically better than Marcus Smart's defense?

At least in their rookie years both Phi. offense and defense were better with Okafor off the floor, whereas Bos. offense and defense were better with Smart on the floor.

Agreed. Larbrd stop digging in on this ridiculous angle already.

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar.  Philly is lucky to have him.  I wish they'd trade him, but I don't see it happening unless someone trades them a player they think has star potential as well.

It's less of a reach to praise Okafor's potential than you think.  If he had put up those numbers on the Celtics last year, people here would already be calling him a hall of famer.

It's almost like people here go overboard with the anti-Okafor stuff is because deep down they think they are helping damage his trade value and it might help the Celtics land him for cheap.  Nobody gives a crap what we are saying on this forum.  You guys can tone it down with the hyperbole.  Either someone pays Philly a price they think is equal value or they keep their star prospect.

Yeah but he didnt put them up on the 48 win celtics. he put those numbers up on the 10 win sixers. Remember a few years ago when Michael Carter williams put up 17 6 and 6 on a better Philly team?

The second bolded part is absolutely ridiculous. If you cant understand why people dont think Okafor is a stud than you are an idiot. Philly must move a big at some point. Okafor's value is clearly not very high right now, which means most GMs around the league agree with the nokafors more than they agree with you.

I wish they'd trade him, but I don't see it happening unless someone trades them a player they think has star potential as well.

this bit, I agree with to an extent. If the best philly can get for okafor is some late firsts and mediocre vets, then they wont deal him, but they do have to deal a big eventually. At this point, if they get 80 cents on the dollar for Okafor I think they might take it. The other logical option might be to let Noel walk in FA.

[Moranis]

Physically, he has the capacity to be an average defender.  Lack of experience was an issue.  Lack of surrounding talent was an issue.  I assume motivation was also a major issue.  Mentally, it had to be a challenge for a rookie to give it 110% out there knowing that there was a massive cloud hovering over on whether or not he'd factor into the team's long-term plans.  That, and it was widely out in the open the franchise was trying to tank and the team was made up of d-leaguers.  The whole situation was a sham.  Why bother?

I agree, people act like he is a ten year veteran.   The guy was a rookie.  I think honestly, the jury is still out on him.   He has room to improve.    If we had a guy who shot over 50% and went for 17 PPG and 7 RPG here we would be happy.   But since it happened elsewhere, the guy is a bum to some people in this thread.   That is double standard.  The guy has room to serve.   I think he would be an upgrade over what we had at Center last year.

When you're playing on a lottery team someone has to score. It's just the way things go. So putting such great emphasis on scoring is really shortsighted. However, put him on a playoff team and not only will the scoring decrease considerably due to less opportunity (last year Okafor had a higher usage rate than Chris Paul!), but he would still give you the same crappy defense and below average rebounding. His rebound percentage was lower than Tyler Zeller's.

Where he ranked in other analytics-

Defensive +/-  #354

Offensive +/- #361
 
Defensive win shares #256

Offensive win shares #302

Value over replacement player #466


Those numbers are pathetic. If you look at only his rankings, ignoring the name, you would think it was some journeymen/end of the bench guy. With the way teams value analytics it's no wonder they aren't exactly knocking down the Sixers doors with trade offers. Then factor in his off the court issues, recent knee surgery, documented laziness, and poor fit for today's modern game and it's easy to see why his value has plummeted.

His scoring efficiency though would have been significantly better such that his overall offensive rank would have improved significantly and his overall numbers might not have dropped that much.  I mean take a guy like Kyrie Irving, usage drops down about 2%, but his efficiency goes up significantly and ends up scoring about a point more on 1 less shot per game playing next to James that first year than playing without James the prior year. 

You can't just focus on the bad things when you talk about playing on a better team.  Almost across the board throughout the entire history of the league a player's efficiency increases when he has less of an offensive burden and is less a focus of the defense.  Given that Okafor was already an excellent mid-range shooting big man and a fairly respectable shooter overall as a rookie on a terrible team and as the #1 option, you would expect his efficiency to go into an elite range with him getting the ball in better positions to score (which would happen on a better team).  He would become an elite offensive player, something you can't just ignore in this situation.  Also a good bet that he would try a bit more defensively playing on a better team with better teammates.

He is?

10 to 16 feet
35%

16 to 23 feet
27%

FT shooting
68%

I don't consider 16 to 23 feet mid-range, that is long two.  But yeah 35% from 10 to 16 feet is quite good.  Better than Bradley, Crowder, Sullinger, Olynyk, Jerekbo, and many other Celtics.  That is from a 20 year old rookie on a terrible team.  And from 3 to 10 feet only Amir Johnson was better than Okafor last year (I'm not counting James Young since he had like 1 shot).  68.6% from the line from a rookie big man isn't bad at all.  Certainly not great, but not too bad either.  Puts him just below average of the centers last year.

Okafor doesn't have three point range, but he is a pretty solid overall shooter and that was as a rookie where he was the main focal point of defenses on one of the worst teams in NBA history.  You put him on a better team and the efficiency increases unless he is the one the incredibly rare players in NBA history whose efficiency gets worse as he ages and gets on better teams.

Statistically, is Marcus Smart's offense worse than Jahlil Okafor's defense?   On the flip side, is Jahlil Okafor's offense statistically better than Marcus Smart's defense?

At least in their rookie years both Phi. offense and defense were better with Okafor off the floor, whereas Bos. offense and defense were better with Smart on the floor.

Agreed. Larbrd stop digging in on this ridiculous angle already.

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar.  Philly is lucky to have him.  I wish they'd trade him, but I don't see it happening unless someone trades them a player they think has star potential as well.

It's less of a reach to praise Okafor's potential than you think.  If he had put up those numbers on the Celtics last year, people here would already be calling him a hall of famer.

It's almost like people here go overboard with the anti-Okafor stuff is because deep down they think they are helping damage his trade value and it might help the Celtics land him for cheap.  Nobody gives a crap what we are saying on this forum.  You guys can tone it down with the hyperbole.  Either someone pays Philly a price they think is equal value or they keep their star prospect.

Yeah but he didnt put them up on the 48 win celtics. he put those numbers up on the 10 win sixers. Remember a few years ago when Michael Carter williams put up 17 6 and 6 on a better Philly team?

The second bolded part is absolutely ridiculous. If you cant understand why people dont think Okafor is a stud than you are an idiot. Philly must move a big at some point. Okafor's value is clearly not very high right now, which means most GMs around the league agree with the nokafors more than they agree with you.

I wish they'd trade him, but I don't see it happening unless someone trades them a player they think has star potential as well.

this bit, I agree with to an extent. If the best philly can get for okafor is some late firsts and mediocre vets, then they wont deal him, but they do have to deal a big eventually. At this point, if they get 80 cents on the dollar for Okafor I think they might take it. The other logical option might be to let Noel walk in FA.

Really yet to be seen if they have to move a big.  We all think they do, but we all think Boston has a guard problem and all the guards are still on the team and we keep adding them. 

[PhoSita]

Okafor's defense is bad, but also overblown.  Very few rookies are useful on defense.

[LooseCannon]

Okafor's defense is bad, but also overblown.  Very few rookies are useful on defense.

His defense is very bad when compared to other big men rookies in the past few decades.  His defensive effort seems to be very poor and he seems to be the kind of player who is unlikely to improve much in that area.  It's pretty fair to project him as a player whose defense will never be good as prime Al Jefferson.

[MBunge]

Okafor's defense is bad, but also overblown.  Very few rookies are useful on defense.

His defense is very bad when compared to other big men rookies in the past few decades. 

At 20, in his second year in the league, Kendrick Perkins had a defensive win share of .8 while Okafor as a 20-year-old rookie had a defensive win share of .9.  Granted, Okafor played 30 minutes a game for a horrible Sixer team and Perk averaged 9 minutes a game for a decent Celtics team, but I think the comparison remains somewhat valid.

Perkins, a guy who could never do ANYTHING but play defense at a very good to elite level, was so awful defensively at 20 that he could barely get off the bench for a 45 win team whose veteran bigs were Raef LaFrentz and Mark Blount.  Okafor may always suck at defense but throwing him on the trash heap at his age is a little excessive.

Mike

[PhoSita]

Okafor's defense is bad, but also overblown.  Very few rookies are useful on defense.

His defense is very bad when compared to other big men rookies in the past few decades.  His defensive effort seems to be very poor and he seems to be the kind of player who is unlikely to improve much in that area.  It's pretty fair to project him as a player whose defense will never be good as prime Al Jefferson.

In terms of advanced defensive stats as a rookie big man playing significant minutes, Okafor's comparable to Johan Petro, Channing Frye, Meyers Leonard, Jason Thompson, Chris Kaman, and Eddy Curry.

None of those guys ever turned into defensive studs, to be sure.  With that said, I think his physical size and talent is closest to Kaman, who actually eventually became a semi-decent defender.  And like Kaman, I expect Jahlil's offensive value to eventually significantly outweigh his defensive deficiencies.

As for effort, I'm simply not gonna pass judgment on a guy after one season who was playing on a team with so little talent.  He went from a NCAA championship team with the best coach in college basketball, to a Sixers team aimed straight at the garbage bin. 

His teammates hung him out to dry endlessly on the defensive end.  Really, we expected to see great effort on defense from Jahlil when he had to try and cover up the mistakes of the likes of Nik Stauskas and Isaiah Canaan?

I think trying to draw any definitive conclusions based on stats from that Sixers team is questionable at best.

[Ilikesports17]

Okafor's defense is bad, but also overblown.  Very few rookies are useful on defense.

His defense is very bad when compared to other big men rookies in the past few decades.  His defensive effort seems to be very poor and he seems to be the kind of player who is unlikely to improve much in that area.  It's pretty fair to project him as a player whose defense will never be good as prime Al Jefferson.

In terms of advanced defensive stats as a rookie big man playing significant minutes, Okafor's comparable to Johan Petro, Channing Frye, Meyers Leonard, Jason Thompson, Chris Kaman, and Eddy Curry.

None of those guys ever turned into defensive studs, to be sure.  With that said, I think his physical size and talent is closest to Kaman, who actually eventually became a semi-decent defender.  And like Kaman, I expect Jahlil's offensive value to eventually significantly outweigh his defensive deficiencies.

As for effort, I'm simply not gonna pass judgment on a guy after one season who was playing on a team with so little talent.  He went from a NCAA championship team with the best coach in college basketball, to a Sixers team aimed straight at the garbage bin. 

His teammates hung him out to dry endlessly on the defensive end.  Really, we expected to see great effort on defense from Jahlil when he had to try and cover up the mistakes of the likes of Nik Stauskas and Isaiah Canaan?

I think trying to draw any definitive conclusions based on stats from that Sixers team is questionable at best.

Its a red flag in itself, but I dont think Jahlil ever had any interest in being in Philly. You saw it a lot in his attitude and I think it might have impacted his effort and play.

[Celtics18]

Okafor's defense is bad, but also overblown.  Very few rookies are useful on defense.

His defense is very bad when compared to other big men rookies in the past few decades.  His defensive effort seems to be very poor and he seems to be the kind of player who is unlikely to improve much in that area.  It's pretty fair to project him as a player whose defense will never be good as prime Al Jefferson.

In terms of advanced defensive stats as a rookie big man playing significant minutes, Okafor's comparable to Johan Petro, Channing Frye, Meyers Leonard, Jason Thompson, Chris Kaman, and Eddy Curry.

None of those guys ever turned into defensive studs, to be sure.  With that said, I think his physical size and talent is closest to Kaman, who actually eventually became a semi-decent defender.  And like Kaman, I expect Jahlil's offensive value to eventually significantly outweigh his defensive deficiencies.

As for effort, I'm simply not gonna pass judgment on a guy after one season who was playing on a team with so little talent.  He went from a NCAA championship team with the best coach in college basketball, to a Sixers team aimed straight at the garbage bin. 

His teammates hung him out to dry endlessly on the defensive end.  Really, we expected to see great effort on defense from Jahlil when he had to try and cover up the mistakes of the likes of Nik Stauskas and Isaiah Canaan?

I think trying to draw any definitive conclusions based on stats from that Sixers team is questionable at best.

Kaman's a good comparison that I don't think I've seen made a lot.  Eddy Curry is another one that has sprung to my mind before.

[PhoSita]

Its a red flag in itself, but I dont think Jahlil ever had any interest in being in Philly. You saw it a lot in his attitude and I think it might have impacted his effort and play.

It was obviously a terrible fit on many different levels from day 1.

I agree that it's a bit of a red flag that a guy was so clearly affected by his situation.  At the same time, only the very greatest players can come in and be really good on a team with terrible teammates and no organizational infrastructure in place.

[LarBrd33]

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar. 

Well yes, technically every player has a chance to be a superstar.   

Not really.

If Olynyk averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds for Gonzaga when he was Okafor's age... and after 2 more years of College and 3 years of NBA basketball prompted someone to write a convoluted post comparing him to Okafor... does this mean that 5 years from now Okafor, on the Olynyk developmental trajectory, will be averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game?

No, it doesn't mean that.  It's an obviously silly prediction.

Is it, though?  Alls I know is that Okafor was averaging 17 and 7 efficiently as a pro with arguably the worst supporting cast in history at the same age Olynyk was still in diapers putting up 5 and 8 for a lower level College program.

Now look at Oly all grows up putting up decent numbers as a bonafied NBA player.   If Okafor follows that same trajectory, maybe he'll end up averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game.

We'll just have to wait 1/20th of a Century until Okafor is Olynyk's age and see what happens.   We'll have to put the year 2021 on our calendars.  That's when Okafor will be at the same point Oly is at.

Man... 2021... that's a long time from now.   That's the same year as "Johnny Mnemonic":



By then, NBA players might play virtually using uniforms that look like this:



In fact, the above image might actually be a picture from the future of Kelly Olynyk's defensive stance in the year 2021 - assuming that old man Olynyk will still be in the league by then.

On a side note, I actually had a roommate that got drunk one night, went on ebay, and bought Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Yes... THE jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Through some weird chain of events, the jacket ended up in my possession.   You heard that right, boys... You're chatting with someone who once owned Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic". 



We even used the jacket in 72 hour film competition we did several years ago.  Our completely terrible improvised mockumentary followed a YouTube celebrity, his talent agent, and his loyal manservant.   Here's a brief excerpt from the 25 minute trainwreck of a student film... skip to 46 second mark to see Ice-T's Johnny Mnemnonic jacket circa 2021 in it's full glory:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3UZ3va8Syo

So yeah, man... we don't know.  For all we know, this is what Jahlil Okafor's 76ers uniform will look like in 2021 when he's in the midst of his hall of fame career:



We'll just have to wait 1/200th of a Millennium to find out. 

[Celtics18]

What's ridiculous about it?  Dude has a chance to be a superstar. 

Well yes, technically every player has a chance to be a superstar.   

Not really.

If Olynyk averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds for Gonzaga when he was Okafor's age... and after 2 more years of College and 3 years of NBA basketball prompted someone to write a convoluted post comparing him to Okafor... does this mean that 5 years from now Okafor, on the Olynyk developmental trajectory, will be averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game?

No, it doesn't mean that.  It's an obviously silly prediction.

Is it, though?  Alls I know is that Okafor was averaging 17 and 7 efficiently as a pro with arguably the worst supporting cast in history at the same age Olynyk was still in diapers putting up 5 and 8 for a lower level College program.

Now look at Oly all grows up putting up decent numbers as a bonafied NBA player.   If Okafor follows that same trajectory, maybe he'll end up averaging 50 points and 30 rebounds per game.

We'll just have to wait 1/20th of a Century until Okafor is Olynyk's age and see what happens.   We'll have to put the year 2021 on our calendars.  That's when Okafor will be at the same point Oly is at.

Man... 2021... that's a long time from now.   That's the same year as "Johnny Mnemonic":



By then, NBA players might play virtually using uniforms that look like this:



In fact, the above image might actually be a picture from the future of Kelly Olynyk's defensive stance in the year 2021 - assuming that old man Olynyk will still be in the league by then.

On a side note, I actually had a roommate that got drunk one night, went on ebay, and bought Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Yes... THE jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic".  Through some weird chain of events, the jacket ended up in my possession.   You heard that right, boys... You're chatting with someone who once owned Ice-T's jacket from "Johnny Mnemonic". 

We even used the jacket in 72 hour film competition we did several years ago.  Our completely terrible improvised mockumentary followed a YouTube celebrity, his talent agent, and his loyal manservant.   Here's a brief excerpt from the trainwreck of a student film... skip to 46 second mark to see Ice-T's Johnny Mnemnonic jacket circa 2021 in it's full glory:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3UZ3va8Syo

So yeah, man... we don't know.  For all we know, this is what Jahlil Okafor's 76ers uniform will look like in 2021 when he's in the midst of his hall of fame career:



We'll just have to wait 1/200th of a Millennium to find out.

Very cute post.  It does support my point, though, that predicting that Okafor will average 50 and 30 some day based on what Kelly Olynyk was doing when he was Jah's age is a bit of silly fantasy/science fiction.

I know that you obviously aren't predicting that and that you are just being silly.

[Ilikesports17]

Its a red flag in itself, but I dont think Jahlil ever had any interest in being in Philly. You saw it a lot in his attitude and I think it might have impacted his effort and play.

It was obviously a terrible fit on many different levels from day 1.

I agree that it's a bit of a red flag that a guy was so clearly affected by his situation.  At the same time, only the very greatest players can come in and be really good on a team with terrible teammates and no organizational infrastructure in place.

yeah, I am honestly willing to basically throw out his rookie year performance. Its so hard to judge anything. We do know that he hurt his knee, revealed himself as a character concern and isnt one of the "very greatest players" add those three negatives and then add in the fact that you know his post scoring translates and then you have a guy whose value has substantially but not devastatingly dropped from a year ago when he was the #3 pick.

[celticsclay]

I think eddies curry or Kaman are decent comparisons. Did people on the board ever pine for curry really hard. He had solid numbers for a few years on the Knicks.

[LooseCannon]

Okafor's defense is bad, but also overblown.  Very few rookies are useful on defense.

His defense is very bad when compared to other big men rookies in the past few decades. 

At 20, in his second year in the league, Kendrick Perkins had a defensive win share of .8 while Okafor as a 20-year-old rookie had a defensive win share of .9.  Granted, Okafor played 30 minutes a game for a horrible Sixer team and Perk averaged 9 minutes a game for a decent Celtics team, but I think the comparison remains somewhat valid.

Perkins, a guy who could never do ANYTHING but play defense at a very good to elite level, was so awful defensively at 20 that he could barely get off the bench for a 45 win team whose veteran bigs were Raef LaFrentz and Mark Blount.  Okafor may always suck at defense but throwing him on the trash heap at his age is a little excessive.

Mike

Do you understand how win shares work?  It's not a rate-based stat.  (WS/48 is.)  So you are saying if Okafor and Perkins both scored 1000 points in a season, but Perkins did so in a third of the playing time, they are comparable scorers.  Perkins had positive defensive stats in his age-20 season.

Here is what Nylon Calculus (a great website whose managing editor was recently hired as an analytics consultant by the Bucks) had to say about his defense late last season:

Although Jahlil Okafor’s offense has shown promise, his defense has lagged behind significantly. His rim protection statistics have been in the negative, as has his defensive Player Tracking Plus Minus.[1. Through February 26, Okafor had “saved” -0.13 points per 36 minutes. Through February 8, he had posted a -1.52 defensive PT-PM.] Entering the week, defensive Real Plus Minus had him at -1.86 — second lowest among centers — which happened to mirror his relative standing in defensive Box Plus/Minus (-1.6).

This latter figure is worth placing in historical context. Compared to other rookie big men with at least 1,000 minutes since the 1973-74 season, Okafor’s DBPM ranks among the bottom 10. Naturally, such a performance leads us to wonder how similar players have fared in subsequent years — that is, whether their defense eventually improved.