Ivica Zubac: huge miss by the Celtics

[kozlodoev]

I like Ivaca. It carries shades of Lepaca Kliffoth.

[The One]

Let's see what he does this Friday then.

Bring it!!

Ha ha ha!  He didn't bring it!  He got brung!!

[IDreamCeltics]

Are we really calling draft misses based on summer league?  Not to mention that Zizic didn't play, and could very well have done better than Zubac if he had.  It's one thing to say that you really like Zubac and think he'll be a good player, or that you wished we had taken him, but saying that we screwed up by taking Zizic over him makes no sense

I feel totally comfortable pointing out that Zubac is a better player than both Jared Sullenger and Tyler Zeller right now based on his summer league performance as well as his professional career in Europe.  He could step in and play 18 minutes a night as a center for the Celtics immediately.  This is not even a "risky prediction" since we're going to see him do exactly that for the Lakers this year - they currently believe in him so much that they have no plan B at center.

He's not better than Sully (or likely Zeller) right now.  Heck, he's not better than Sully was his rookie season (unfortunately, Sully never played in Summer league due to the lockout and his back injury).  He may turn out to be a good player, but you have some seriously overinflated expectations for him.  Any 19-year-old rookie that comes into the NBA as a better player than the starting C on a 48 win team would go a [heck] of a lot higher than 33.

Saying that the Lakers have no plan B says more about how bad their GM (who also happens to have taken Zubac... hmmmm...) is than how good of a player Zubac will be

I'm not saying we screwed up by taking Zizic - I'm saying we screwed up by NOT taking Zubac.  Try to wrap your head around the idea that we had eight draft picks and had the opportunity to draft multiple impact players THIS YEAR.  Since the Celtics made repeated claims of exhaustively scouting the Euro prospects I find it hard to believe that they whiffed that badly on a guy who was one of four Euro centers available and lasted into the second round.

 

I keep trying to "wrap [my] head around the idea that we had eight draft picks", but my hand can only count up to 5 so I'm just really struggling 

Are you saying that the Cs should have used all 8 picks? The trade with Memphis could be argued one way or the other, but lets not say that it was a horrible trade because Zubac was available until we at least see what that pick turns into (and what Zubac does against NBA players)

Given that we took a couple of Euros in the first round, I think it's safe to say that Danny had a good idea of what level of prospect Zubac is.  I'm sorry, but I trust Danny and his scouting team more than you.  It's nothing personal (really, it's not), but if Danny didn't think he was worth keeping the 31 and 35 for (not to mention that every GM in the first round passed over him), I'll trust that over some success in the summer league and your view of his career in Europe

If he was some raw prospect who wasn't going to be ready to play a role in the NBA for several years (think Young, Hunter, Mickey, Yabu, Zizic, Bentel, Jackson) I could understand passing on him to avoid having to keep him on the roster, but this a 7'2 260 lbs shot-blocker with a post-game...  He's NBA ready right now and has a skillset that people on this board have been clamoring for for ages. 

There's not really an excuse available that justifies the Celtics trading their two top second round picks away and missing on a player who would A. Make an NBA impact this year, B. Is 19 and has as much potential to improve as any other 19 year old player. C.  Has more trade value today than he did when he was drafted.

I really think you are overrating Zubac to a ridiculous degree.  He may very well turn out to be an NBA ready player, or develop into a real star.  But acting like it's guaranteed to happen is objectively wrong.  Acting like Danny made a big mistake by not drafting him based on a pretty good summer league is a bit premature, too

Furthermore, many people on this board are creaming themselves over the possibility of trading first round picks and prospects for Jahil Okafor who had a similar impact in summer league to Zubac last year.

I know I haven't been "creaming [myself]" over the possibility of trading for Okafor (in fact, I'm against giving up any real assets for him), so I don't see what that has to do with my post, but whatever

You don't honestly think Zubac is on the same level of prospect as Okafor, do you?  I'm not a huge Okafor fan, but that's just ridiculous.  Yes, they both had good (but not great) summer leagues, but that really means nothing. There's a reason Okafor was a consensus #3 pick (arguably should have gone #2), while Zubac went #33 a year later, and it's not because Kupchak is a genius

Time to take a look back and compare Zubac to other NBA players now that we have a reasonable sample size of NBA minutes.

Zubac Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL BLK   PF   TO
19  .509   .800   16.0  10.5  1.5  0.6  2.0   3.3  2.0

Jahil Okafor Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL BLK   PF   TO
21  .513   .622  18.1   7.5   1.6  0.6  1.6   3.7  2.2

Jared Sullenger Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL  BLK   PF   TO
24  .313   .500  11.3   8.2    0.9   1.2  0.3    5.2  1.2

Tyler Zeller Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL  BLK   PF   TO
27   .468  .577  11.9    9.1   2.5  0.5  1.6   3.9  1.2

All these stats are from: http://www.basketball-reference.com

It's pretty clear to me that Zubac is the best prospect AND player out these 4.   Once again, the Celtics opted to pass on Zubac in the second round. 

[kozlodoev]

The only thing that's clear from this is that Zubac has been able to string some good-looking per36 numbers on a hopeless Lakers team that's not going anywhere. His per36 is more or less similar to Sullinger's second year on a 28-win Celtics team.

[colincb]

The per 36 stats are suspect given Zubac's averaged 13 minutes per game on a very bad team. I thought he was a good prospect before the draft, but I thought Zizic an even better one. In any case it's too early to make a judgment on either, never mind claiming it was a huge miss.

[IDreamCeltics]

The only thing that's clear from this is that Zubac has been able to string some good-looking per36 numbers on a hopeless Lakers team that's not going anywhere. His per36 is more or less similar to Sullinger's second year on a 28-win Celtics team.

How so? Please post Sully's per 36 numbers from that year.

[kozlodoev]

The only thing that's clear from this is that Zubac has been able to string some good-looking per36 numbers on a hopeless Lakers team that's not going anywhere. His per36 is more or less similar to Sullinger's second year on a 28-win Celtics team.

How so? Please post Sully's per 36 numbers from that year.

You didn't bother to look three lines up when you fished out his per36 from this year?

Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB   AST STL  BLK   PF   TO
21  .427  .778  17.3    10.6  2.9   0.6  0.9    4.4  2.1

[oldtype]

Per 36 is really noisy when you're using it for players who aren't even playing 20mpg.

[BitterJim]

Are we really calling draft misses based on summer league?  Not to mention that Zizic didn't play, and could very well have done better than Zubac if he had.  It's one thing to say that you really like Zubac and think he'll be a good player, or that you wished we had taken him, but saying that we screwed up by taking Zizic over him makes no sense

I feel totally comfortable pointing out that Zubac is a better player than both Jared Sullenger and Tyler Zeller right now based on his summer league performance as well as his professional career in Europe.  He could step in and play 18 minutes a night as a center for the Celtics immediately.  This is not even a "risky prediction" since we're going to see him do exactly that for the Lakers this year - they currently believe in him so much that they have no plan B at center.

He's not better than Sully (or likely Zeller) right now.  Heck, he's not better than Sully was his rookie season (unfortunately, Sully never played in Summer league due to the lockout and his back injury).  He may turn out to be a good player, but you have some seriously overinflated expectations for him.  Any 19-year-old rookie that comes into the NBA as a better player than the starting C on a 48 win team would go a [heck] of a lot higher than 33.

Saying that the Lakers have no plan B says more about how bad their GM (who also happens to have taken Zubac... hmmmm...) is than how good of a player Zubac will be

I'm not saying we screwed up by taking Zizic - I'm saying we screwed up by NOT taking Zubac.  Try to wrap your head around the idea that we had eight draft picks and had the opportunity to draft multiple impact players THIS YEAR.  Since the Celtics made repeated claims of exhaustively scouting the Euro prospects I find it hard to believe that they whiffed that badly on a guy who was one of four Euro centers available and lasted into the second round.

 

I keep trying to "wrap [my] head around the idea that we had eight draft picks", but my hand can only count up to 5 so I'm just really struggling 

Are you saying that the Cs should have used all 8 picks? The trade with Memphis could be argued one way or the other, but lets not say that it was a horrible trade because Zubac was available until we at least see what that pick turns into (and what Zubac does against NBA players)

Given that we took a couple of Euros in the first round, I think it's safe to say that Danny had a good idea of what level of prospect Zubac is.  I'm sorry, but I trust Danny and his scouting team more than you.  It's nothing personal (really, it's not), but if Danny didn't think he was worth keeping the 31 and 35 for (not to mention that every GM in the first round passed over him), I'll trust that over some success in the summer league and your view of his career in Europe

If he was some raw prospect who wasn't going to be ready to play a role in the NBA for several years (think Young, Hunter, Mickey, Yabu, Zizic, Bentel, Jackson) I could understand passing on him to avoid having to keep him on the roster, but this a 7'2 260 lbs shot-blocker with a post-game...  He's NBA ready right now and has a skillset that people on this board have been clamoring for for ages. 

There's not really an excuse available that justifies the Celtics trading their two top second round picks away and missing on a player who would A. Make an NBA impact this year, B. Is 19 and has as much potential to improve as any other 19 year old player. C.  Has more trade value today than he did when he was drafted.

I really think you are overrating Zubac to a ridiculous degree.  He may very well turn out to be an NBA ready player, or develop into a real star.  But acting like it's guaranteed to happen is objectively wrong.  Acting like Danny made a big mistake by not drafting him based on a pretty good summer league is a bit premature, too

Furthermore, many people on this board are creaming themselves over the possibility of trading first round picks and prospects for Jahil Okafor who had a similar impact in summer league to Zubac last year.

I know I haven't been "creaming [myself]" over the possibility of trading for Okafor (in fact, I'm against giving up any real assets for him), so I don't see what that has to do with my post, but whatever

You don't honestly think Zubac is on the same level of prospect as Okafor, do you?  I'm not a huge Okafor fan, but that's just ridiculous.  Yes, they both had good (but not great) summer leagues, but that really means nothing. There's a reason Okafor was a consensus #3 pick (arguably should have gone #2), while Zubac went #33 a year later, and it's not because Kupchak is a genius

Time to take a look back and compare Zubac to other NBA players now that we have a reasonable sample size of NBA minutes.

Zubac Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL BLK   PF   TO
19  .509   .800   16.0  10.5  1.5  0.6  2.0   3.3  2.0

Jahil Okafor Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL BLK   PF   TO
21  .513   .622  18.1   7.5   1.6  0.6  1.6   3.7  2.2

Jared Sullenger Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL  BLK   PF   TO
24  .313   .500  11.3   8.2    0.9   1.2  0.3    5.2  1.2

Tyler Zeller Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL  BLK   PF   TO
27   .468  .577  11.9    9.1   2.5  0.5  1.6   3.9  1.2

All these stats are from: http://www.basketball-reference.com

It's pretty clear to me that Zubac is the best prospect AND player out these 4.   Once again, the Celtics opted to pass on Zubac in the second round.

To add context to those numbers:

Player MPG
Zubac 13.4
Okafor 30.0
Sullinger 23.4
Zeller 11.8

So while Zubac's been doing well (especially in 2017 - he averaged 8.4ppg and 6.9rpg on 54.8% shooting in just 16.9mpg in January), it's in such low minutes that just comparing per36 stats isn't very useful.  I'd probably take him over Zeller at this point, but I wouldn't feel great about our bigs if he was getting regular minutes

[oldtype]

Random aside, but I'm curious why the standard normalization is for 36 minutes when the vast, vast majority of NBA players will never average 36+ MPG at any time in their career.  (9 players are doing it this season).  I'd think that per 30 would give you much more reasonable looking numbers.

[BitterJim]

Random aside, but I'm curious why the standard normalization is for 36 minutes when the vast, vast majority of NBA players will never average 36+ MPG at any time in their career.  (9 players are doing it this season).  I'd think that per 30 would give you much more reasonable looking numbers.

I think it's a holdover from when 36 minutes wasn't as unreasonable number.  Really, it should be based on 48 mpg so people see it more as a per-minute stat and aren't as likely to try and use it to extrapolate

[IDreamCeltics]

The only thing that's clear from this is that Zubac has been able to string some good-looking per36 numbers on a hopeless Lakers team that's not going anywhere. His per36 is more or less similar to Sullinger's second year on a 28-win Celtics team.

How so? Please post Sully's per 36 numbers from that year.

You didn't bother to look three lines up when you fished out his per36 from this year?

Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB   AST STL  BLK   PF   TO
21  .427  .778  17.3    10.6  2.9   0.6  0.9    4.4  2.1

I did actually, I just figured if you were going to cite Sullinger's stats I'd have you post the numbers so that I didn't have to.  While we all feel your opinion is infallible kozlodoev it is occasionally nice when people bring evidence to back up their arguments.

Zubac Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL BLK   PF   TO
19  .509   .800   16.0  10.5  1.5  0.6  2.0   3.3  2.0

As you can see, even though Sullinger is 3 years older, Zubac is (by far) the more efficient scorer, and averages twice as many blocks while still providing elite rebounding. He's also 4 inches taller than Sully, and he isn't struggling to keep his weight below 350 lbs.


 

 

[IDreamCeltics]

Are we really calling draft misses based on summer league?  Not to mention that Zizic didn't play, and could very well have done better than Zubac if he had.  It's one thing to say that you really like Zubac and think he'll be a good player, or that you wished we had taken him, but saying that we screwed up by taking Zizic over him makes no sense

I feel totally comfortable pointing out that Zubac is a better player than both Jared Sullenger and Tyler Zeller right now based on his summer league performance as well as his professional career in Europe.  He could step in and play 18 minutes a night as a center for the Celtics immediately.  This is not even a "risky prediction" since we're going to see him do exactly that for the Lakers this year - they currently believe in him so much that they have no plan B at center.

He's not better than Sully (or likely Zeller) right now.  Heck, he's not better than Sully was his rookie season (unfortunately, Sully never played in Summer league due to the lockout and his back injury).  He may turn out to be a good player, but you have some seriously overinflated expectations for him.  Any 19-year-old rookie that comes into the NBA as a better player than the starting C on a 48 win team would go a [heck] of a lot higher than 33.

Saying that the Lakers have no plan B says more about how bad their GM (who also happens to have taken Zubac... hmmmm...) is than how good of a player Zubac will be

I'm not saying we screwed up by taking Zizic - I'm saying we screwed up by NOT taking Zubac.  Try to wrap your head around the idea that we had eight draft picks and had the opportunity to draft multiple impact players THIS YEAR.  Since the Celtics made repeated claims of exhaustively scouting the Euro prospects I find it hard to believe that they whiffed that badly on a guy who was one of four Euro centers available and lasted into the second round.

 

I keep trying to "wrap [my] head around the idea that we had eight draft picks", but my hand can only count up to 5 so I'm just really struggling 

Are you saying that the Cs should have used all 8 picks? The trade with Memphis could be argued one way or the other, but lets not say that it was a horrible trade because Zubac was available until we at least see what that pick turns into (and what Zubac does against NBA players)

Given that we took a couple of Euros in the first round, I think it's safe to say that Danny had a good idea of what level of prospect Zubac is.  I'm sorry, but I trust Danny and his scouting team more than you.  It's nothing personal (really, it's not), but if Danny didn't think he was worth keeping the 31 and 35 for (not to mention that every GM in the first round passed over him), I'll trust that over some success in the summer league and your view of his career in Europe

If he was some raw prospect who wasn't going to be ready to play a role in the NBA for several years (think Young, Hunter, Mickey, Yabu, Zizic, Bentel, Jackson) I could understand passing on him to avoid having to keep him on the roster, but this a 7'2 260 lbs shot-blocker with a post-game...  He's NBA ready right now and has a skillset that people on this board have been clamoring for for ages. 

There's not really an excuse available that justifies the Celtics trading their two top second round picks away and missing on a player who would A. Make an NBA impact this year, B. Is 19 and has as much potential to improve as any other 19 year old player. C.  Has more trade value today than he did when he was drafted.

I really think you are overrating Zubac to a ridiculous degree.  He may very well turn out to be an NBA ready player, or develop into a real star.  But acting like it's guaranteed to happen is objectively wrong.  Acting like Danny made a big mistake by not drafting him based on a pretty good summer league is a bit premature, too

Furthermore, many people on this board are creaming themselves over the possibility of trading first round picks and prospects for Jahil Okafor who had a similar impact in summer league to Zubac last year.

I know I haven't been "creaming [myself]" over the possibility of trading for Okafor (in fact, I'm against giving up any real assets for him), so I don't see what that has to do with my post, but whatever

You don't honestly think Zubac is on the same level of prospect as Okafor, do you?  I'm not a huge Okafor fan, but that's just ridiculous.  Yes, they both had good (but not great) summer leagues, but that really means nothing. There's a reason Okafor was a consensus #3 pick (arguably should have gone #2), while Zubac went #33 a year later, and it's not because Kupchak is a genius

Time to take a look back and compare Zubac to other NBA players now that we have a reasonable sample size of NBA minutes.

Zubac Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL BLK   PF   TO
19  .509   .800   16.0  10.5  1.5  0.6  2.0   3.3  2.0

Jahil Okafor Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL BLK   PF   TO
21  .513   .622  18.1   7.5   1.6  0.6  1.6   3.7  2.2

Jared Sullenger Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL  BLK   PF   TO
24  .313   .500  11.3   8.2    0.9   1.2  0.3    5.2  1.2

Tyler Zeller Per 36:
Age FG%  FT%  PTS    TRB  AST STL  BLK   PF   TO
27   .468  .577  11.9    9.1   2.5  0.5  1.6   3.9  1.2

All these stats are from: http://www.basketball-reference.com

It's pretty clear to me that Zubac is the best prospect AND player out these 4.   Once again, the Celtics opted to pass on Zubac in the second round.

To add context to those numbers:

Player MPG
Zubac 13.4
Okafor 30.0
Sullinger 23.4
Zeller 11.8

So while Zubac's been doing well (especially in 2017 - he averaged 8.4ppg and 6.9rpg on 54.8% shooting in just 16.9mpg in January), it's in such low minutes that just comparing per36 stats isn't very useful.  I'd probably take him over Zeller at this point, but I wouldn't feel great about our bigs if he was getting regular minutes

To add further context:

Okafor isn't playing 30 mpg this year he's playing 23.2 mpg
And Sullinger isn't averaging 23.4 mpg he's averaging 10.7 mpg (after a completely foreseeable weight related foot injury).

[kozlodoev]

As far as efficiency is concerned, Sullinger's 2FG% was fairly similar to Zubac (.475 vs. .509). Sure, he shot way too many threes, but he also averaged twice as many assists per36.

Also, both of them were born in March, so Sullinger was almost exactly 2 (not three) years older during his age 21 season than Zubac is now.

This argument is rather fruitless. I'm not going to conclusively prove with this slice of data that Zubac is slightly worse (or for that matter, slightly better) than Sullinger was. That's not the point. What the data can demonstrate, however, is that Zubac is broadly comparable to Sullinger at a relatively comparable point of his career. So the talk about being "by far" superior to anything is largely unfounded.

[Who]

I don't think Per 36 numbers are valuable when a player has played as little as Zubac.

They need a larger sample size.