Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)

[Smitty77]

What concerns me with Brown is whether or not he has the basketball IQ to support his physical gifts. When the game eventually slows down for him, what will he be like?

He might be the most cerebral 19 year old EVER drafted!!!  Where do you get you worries about his intellect??

Smitty77

[Celts Fan 508]

One thing that stands out to me about Brown is how much room he can create to get his shot off.  If his shot starts falling he will be able to get it off all night long with the room he creates.  I did not like the pick but I see upside.

[Celtic_Pride777]

I think we can all agree that whatever promise Jaylen Brown has...this was still a highly risky pick for Ainge to make. Whereas other players in the draft might've had more immediate value and impact (especially for trades) Jaylen is going to be a long-term project, and will certainly take years before he develops and breaks into the starting lineup.

Those typically aren't the kind of players you select at #3

[droopdog7]

I think we can all agree that whatever promise Jaylen Brown has...this was still a highly risky pick for Ainge to make. Whereas other players in the draft might've had more immediate value and impact (especially for trades) Jaylen is going to be a long-term project, and will certainly take years before he develops and breaks into the starting lineup.

Those typically aren't the kind of players you select at #3

If Jaylen had gotten picked by a true lottery team, I'd argue he'd be starting this year.  And I disagree with this idea if it taking years.  He'll have an impact this year; he'll show the promise right away.

[MBunge]

I think we can all agree that whatever promise Jaylen Brown has...this was still a highly risky pick for Ainge to make. Whereas other players in the draft might've had more immediate value and impact (especially for trades) Jaylen is going to be a long-term project, and will certainly take years before he develops and breaks into the starting lineup.

Those typically aren't the kind of players you select at #3

Projects get taken at the top of the lottery all the time.  It's just that they almost always go to terrible teams and play immediately.

Mike

[jambr380]

I think we can all agree that whatever promise Jaylen Brown has...this was still a highly risky pick for Ainge to make. Whereas other players in the draft might've had more immediate value and impact (especially for trades) Jaylen is going to be a long-term project, and will certainly take years before he develops and breaks into the starting lineup.

Those typically aren't the kind of players you select at #3

Yeah, but most #3 picks aren't going to a team that just finished 3rd in the conference and who signed a multiple all-star FA. If he were going to any of the other teams who drafted around us, he surely would be starting. This isn't a horrible scenario either - he will be able to eased in slowly without possibly blowing his career/confidence running around with his head chopped off.

[Sketch5]

Brown is 19 years old and has played two summer league games, and Celtic fans are writing him off.
You have to love Celtic fans.
LOL

Yep. And one of those games was on a bum knee, and you could tell. But I saw him get space on a 15 footer that looked nice. And he hit 2 threes, which shows promise his shot just needs reps.

One thing I really like is he was moving people into defensive positions. Shows he has an understanding on the defensive end.

[oldtype]

He's a raw, athletic prospect: the definition of high ceiling, low floor.

I don't see how you could possibly think he was low ceiling for any other reason than a burning desire to be as pessimistic as possible.

[rollie mass]

justin winslow should be your bench mark this season-also jaylen will adapt and he looks the type to play better with the big boys-he is trying to hard

[yoursweatersux]

Paul George

Position: Forward
Height: 6-7
School: Fresno State
Career: 63 G, 15.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.4 APG

Kawhi Leonard

Position: Forward
Height: 6-7 ▪ Weight: 225
School: San Diego State
Career: 70 G, 14.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 2.2 APG

Jaylen Brown

Position: Forward
Height: 6-7 ▪ Weight: 225
Hometown: Marietta, GA
High School: Wheeler HS
School: University of California
Career: 34 G, 14.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.0 APG

See any similarities?

Sounds like 15ppg is the magic #! 😃

Honestly, this pretty much makes my point for me. Both Pierce and George were picked at #10. There's a reason for that. For every Pierce and George there are five Al-Farouq Aminu's, which is why those guys fall to #10. Dunn will be the better player over his career, I'm sure of it. I think Ainge was just scared of having Thomas, Smart, and Dunn all on the same team.

[oldtype]

justin winslow should be your bench mark this season-also jaylen will adapt and he looks the type to play better with the big boys-he is trying to hard

I don't think his technical game is as developed as even Winslow's to be honest. It's going to take a lot of time.

I'd be happy with a season roughly similar to that of rookie Marcus Smart: play good enough D to stay on the floor, stand in the corner on offense.

[Celtic_Pride777]

I think we can all agree that whatever promise Jaylen Brown has...this was still a highly risky pick for Ainge to make. Whereas other players in the draft might've had more immediate value and impact (especially for trades) Jaylen is going to be a long-term project, and will certainly take years before he develops and breaks into the starting lineup.

Those typically aren't the kind of players you select at #3

Projects get taken at the top of the lottery all the time.  It's just that they almost always go to terrible teams and play immediately.

Mike

I think we can all agree that whatever promise Jaylen Brown has...this was still a highly risky pick for Ainge to make. Whereas other players in the draft might've had more immediate value and impact (especially for trades) Jaylen is going to be a long-term project, and will certainly take years before he develops and breaks into the starting lineup.

Those typically aren't the kind of players you select at #3

If Jaylen had gotten picked by a true lottery team, I'd argue he'd be starting this year.  And I disagree with this idea if it taking years.  He'll have an impact this year; he'll show the promise right away.

I think we can all agree that whatever promise Jaylen Brown has...this was still a highly risky pick for Ainge to make. Whereas other players in the draft might've had more immediate value and impact (especially for trades) Jaylen is going to be a long-term project, and will certainly take years before he develops and breaks into the starting lineup.

Those typically aren't the kind of players you select at #3

Yeah, but most #3 picks aren't going to a team that just finished 3rd in the conference and who signed a multiple all-star FA. If he were going to any of the other teams who drafted around us, he surely would be starting. This isn't a horrible scenario either - he will be able to eased in slowly without possibly blowing his career/confidence running around with his head chopped off.

These are all good points, and from that perspective, Jaylen is a good fit for this non-Lottery team. I just wonder if he had the highest value relative to trade payoff.

Let me ask you this: If drafting Kris Dunn would have made a trade with the Bulls and the 76ers more likely (both teams are in need of guards) would you have considered going with him? 

[oldtype]

Paul George

Position: Forward
Height: 6-7
School: Fresno State
Career: 63 G, 15.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.4 APG

Kawhi Leonard

Position: Forward
Height: 6-7 ▪ Weight: 225
School: San Diego State
Career: 70 G, 14.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 2.2 APG

Jaylen Brown

Position: Forward
Height: 6-7 ▪ Weight: 225
Hometown: Marietta, GA
High School: Wheeler HS
School: University of California
Career: 34 G, 14.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.0 APG

See any similarities?

Sounds like 15ppg is the magic #! 😃

Honestly, this pretty much makes my point for me. Both Pierce and George were picked at #10. There's a reason for that. For every Pierce and George there are five Al-Farouq Aminu's, which is why those guys fall to #10. Dunn will be the better player over his career, I'm sure of it. I think Ainge was just scared of having Thomas, Smart, and Dunn all on the same team.

Can you blame him? Picking Dunn would have depreciated all of our assets because teams would know we have a billion undersized guards, some of which we need to trade. It would be exactly like Philly with their glut of bigs.

I'm sure Dunn will have a better rookie season than almost any other rookie, including Jaylen Brown. But let's not forget that this he's supposed to be better given that he's three years older than all of the one-and-dones.

[yoursweatersux]

justin winslow should be your bench mark this season-also jaylen will adapt and he looks the type to play better with the big boys-he is trying to hard

I actually think Justise Winslow is a great comparison, and that's also what troubles me.

Winslow had a higher TS% and 3p% than Brown, and he struggled mightily on offense this year. He also had higher steals, rebounds and blocks per 40 minutes, and overall much more favorable advanced stats. AND HE WENT 10th! Brown is a massive reach at #3.

[wiley]

I think I'd have taken Dunn and kept him and traded a different guard.    However, the jury is out even on Dunn until the NBA season is well underway.  (I think he'll be dang good).

I'm excited about Jaylen however because it seems his outside shot is way better than anyone thought a few weeks ago.  It started with his 76 out of 100 makes for Celtics workout, and it has continued with his excellent looking shot (form wise) from distance.  More than a few weeks ago the whole blog was certain that his outside shot was quite broken and would take years to perhaps fix..the reason to take was exclusively his athleticism, defense, driving. 

Turns out he's got a real nice looking outside shot, which should start dropping sooner rather than later..