Author Topic: As of July 7 - Project the East and West  (Read 4252 times)

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Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #15 on: July 07, 2016, 04:31:15 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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If the warriors add Kevin Durant and finish with 8 less wins than they did last year, they should be ashamed of themselves.

I think most people are assuming they'll take a Spursian approach to the regular season.

It's not like these guys were playing 43 minutes per night anyways.   All three of their guys averaged 33-34mpg.  Even if they start benching players for entire games due to rest (which is ridiculous considering all these guys are in their mid 20s), they should be outright humiliated if they win less than 73 games next season. 

You put Durant on the Nets and they'd win 55 games.   Add Durant to the Warriors, and they should go undefeated.

Unless the Warriors are missing core guys to injuries, they'll be able to have two top-15 players on the floor at all times without playing their main guys more than 32-34 minutes per game.

It's hard to imagine them failing to win at least 70 games unless they rest their core guys for multiple games at the end of the season.
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Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #16 on: July 07, 2016, 05:03:28 PM »

Offline Denis998

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1. Cavs
2. Celtics
3. Pacers
4. Toronto
5. Pistons
6. Bulls
7. Knicks
8. Hornets
9. Hawks
10. Washington
11. Orlando
12. Bucks
13. Philly
14. Heat
15. Nets

Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #17 on: July 07, 2016, 05:03:47 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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If the warriors add Kevin Durant and finish with 8 less wins than they did last year, they should be ashamed of themselves.

I think most people are assuming they'll take a Spursian approach to the regular season.

It's not like these guys were playing 43 minutes per night anyways.   All three of their guys averaged 33-34mpg.  Even if they start benching players for entire games due to rest (which is ridiculous considering all these guys are in their mid 20s), they should be outright humiliated if they win less than 73 games next season. 

You put Durant on the Nets and they'd win 55 games.   Add Durant to the Warriors, and they should go undefeated.

Unless the Warriors are missing core guys to injuries, they'll be able to have two top-15 players on the floor at all times without playing their main guys more than 32-34 minutes per game.

It's hard to imagine them failing to win at least 70 games unless they rest their core guys for multiple games at the end of the season.
It's not even the fact they have four All-NBA players on the same roster.   You can stick a bunch of talent on a roster and it isn't necessarily going to mesh.  Kyrie, Love and LeBron all need the ball in their hands to be successful.  They all create offense from the same parts of the court.  It's a challenge to get them to mesh.  It was a challenge to get Wade and LeBron to mesh that first year.   Teams have tried just throwing talent together in the past (Lakers adding Payton and Malone) and it just hasn't really fit.

But this team... this team is surreal. 

Kevin Durant can carry a bottomfeeder to the playoffs by himself.  He's arguably the most gifted offensive player in the league and he has unlimited range.  Durant is a 50/40/90 guy.  Here's the thing about basketball... most of these pros can shoot wide open shots.  Go watch players warm up before the game.  They rarely miss.  It's not a shock that a guy considered to be a poor shooter, Jaylen Brown, was able to hit 76 out of 100 wide open three pointers in a workout.   So the more wide open a player is, the better he is going to shoot.  That's partially why Buddy Hield shot 46% from three this year - he was surrounded with other good three point shooters.  It's why guys like Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes were able to shoot in 38% from three this season - they were next to two of the greatest three point shooters of all time.   The more guys you have that can shoot, the easier it is to shoot. 

Which is why it's incredible that Durant was able to be a 50/40/90 player despite the fact he was consistently double-teamed and the team's next best shooters were Dion Waiters and Anthony Morrow.  Lol.  Ridiculous.   Stick him on a team with two of the greatest shooters ever and forget about Home Run Derby Basketball... these guys could score 150+ per night.  Don't be stunned if they shoot historically high percentages from three.  Kyle Korver shot 49% from three a couple seasons ago... don't be stunned if one of these Warriors shoots 50% from three in this offense. 

The pieces fit.  They stacked the deck on an unprecedented level.   Three of the greatest shooters in NBA history on the same team.  They don't need the ball to be successful.   This team should win every game they play.   Anything less than 73 wins should be considered a failure. 

Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #18 on: July 07, 2016, 05:28:30 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I have a 5 win range on the projections and again this is as of right now with the announced moves.  I didn't compare to make sure I didn't over or under estimate the total games as it is just a rough projection.  I am also assuming reasonable health of all players (so some injury but not major ones for long time periods).

East
1. Cavs 55-60 wins
2. Pistons 50-55 wins
3. Hornets 48-53 wins
4. Raptors 48-53 wins
5. Celtics 47-52 wins
6. Pacers 46-51 wins
7. Bulls 44-49 wins
8. Bucks 40-45 wins
9. Hawks 37-42 wins
10. Knicks 37-42 wins
11. Heat 37-42 wins
12. Wizards 33-38 wins
13. Magic 33-38 wins
14. Nets 30-35 wins
15. Sixers 22-27 wins

West
1. Warriors 65-70 wins
2. Spurs 60-65 wins
3. Clippers 55-60 wins
4. Blazers 42-47 wins
5. Mavericks 42-47 wins
6. Jazz 42-47 wins
7. Thunder 41-46 wins
8. Grizzlies 40-45 wins
9. Pelicans 40-45 wins
10. Rockets 36-41 wins
11. Wolves 33-38 wins
12. Kings 33-38 wins
13. Nuggets 30-35 wins
14. Lakers 20-25 wins
15. Suns 18-23 wins

The one that really jumps out at me is Charlotte above Boston. They don't have a ton of young players that are improving and they lost both Al Jefferson and Lin who played keys roles for them. How they would be expected to be better while the Celtics are worse adding a perennial all-star is pretty puzzling. Also the Pistons with 55 wins seems like quite a jump. Is this based off their strong playoff showing? (close games against Cleveland)
The Pistons were 16-9 in games Harris started for them, which is a 52.5 win pace over 82.  I believe they have the 2nd best starting lineup in the East with Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Harris, Morris, and Drummond and with the addition of Leuer and Smith to their bench they are now a quality 9 deep (Johnson and Baynes) and that doesn't even count Ellenson who has nice potential as a rookie.  I just think they have the right mix of shooting, defense, speed, and raw talent, and Smith at 28 is the oldest guy in the rotation.  Drummond and KCP are still just 22 and Harris is just 23.  Johnson just turned 20 after the season ended.

55 still seems like a lot for how young those guys are, but I do like their core. That being said any explanation for Charlotte? Their starting 5 is going to be Kemba, Batum, Marvin Williams, Zeller and Kaminsky? They lost Jefferson, Courtney Lee and Lin while adding Bellinelli and Hibbert. The size contracts the players they lose versus the guys coming in should tell you their relative value. I would be less surprised if they missed than playoffs than if they were around 50 wins. Of all the second level teams in the east the Heat and Hornets took clear steps back while the Raptors stayed the same and the Celtics improved.
The Hornets also added Sessions and get MKG back.  Jefferson only played in 47 games and limited minutes.  I don't actually think losing him will affect the team much, and fully expect MKG to provide what Lee was providing.  Sessions is similar to Lin (maybe a bit worse, but not enough to matter as the first guard off the bench). 
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Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #19 on: July 07, 2016, 05:35:57 PM »

Online Who

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West

 1 GSW = 68 wins
 2 SAS = 57 wins
 3 LAC = 54 wins
 4 UTA = 51 wins
 5 MEM = 47 wins
 6 DAL = 45 wins
 7 MIN = 44 wins
 8 HOU = 43 wins
 9 OKC = 43 wins
10 POR = 38 wins
11 DEN = 35 wins
12 SAC = 32 wins
13 NOP = 29 wins
14 PHO = 23 wins
15 LAL = 19 wins

East

 1 CLE = 62 wins
 2 BOS = 53 wins
 3 TOR = 52 wins
 4 DET = 50 wins
 5 IND = 49 wins
 6 ATL = 45 wins
 7 CHI = 41 wins
 8 CHA = 39 wins
 9 ORL = 38 wins
10 MIL = 37 wins
11 NYK = 35 wins
12 WAS = 34 wins
13 MIA = 29 wins
14 BRK = 26 wins
15 PHI = 21 wins
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 05:41:14 PM by Who »

Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #20 on: July 07, 2016, 05:39:45 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I have a 5 win range on the projections and again this is as of right now with the announced moves.  I didn't compare to make sure I didn't over or under estimate the total games as it is just a rough projection.  I am also assuming reasonable health of all players (so some injury but not major ones for long time periods).

East
1. Cavs 55-60 wins
2. Pistons 50-55 wins
3. Hornets 48-53 wins
4. Raptors 48-53 wins
5. Celtics 47-52 wins
6. Pacers 46-51 wins
7. Bulls 44-49 wins
8. Bucks 40-45 wins
9. Hawks 37-42 wins
10. Knicks 37-42 wins
11. Heat 37-42 wins
12. Wizards 33-38 wins
13. Magic 33-38 wins
14. Nets 30-35 wins
15. Sixers 22-27 wins

West
1. Warriors 65-70 wins
2. Spurs 60-65 wins
3. Clippers 55-60 wins
4. Blazers 42-47 wins
5. Mavericks 42-47 wins
6. Jazz 42-47 wins
7. Thunder 41-46 wins
8. Grizzlies 40-45 wins
9. Pelicans 40-45 wins
10. Rockets 36-41 wins
11. Wolves 33-38 wins
12. Kings 33-38 wins
13. Nuggets 30-35 wins
14. Lakers 20-25 wins
15. Suns 18-23 wins

The one that really jumps out at me is Charlotte above Boston. They don't have a ton of young players that are improving and they lost both Al Jefferson and Lin who played keys roles for them. How they would be expected to be better while the Celtics are worse adding a perennial all-star is pretty puzzling. Also the Pistons with 55 wins seems like quite a jump. Is this based off their strong playoff showing? (close games against Cleveland)
The Pistons were 16-9 in games Harris started for them, which is a 52.5 win pace over 82.  I believe they have the 2nd best starting lineup in the East with Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Harris, Morris, and Drummond and with the addition of Leuer and Smith to their bench they are now a quality 9 deep (Johnson and Baynes) and that doesn't even count Ellenson who has nice potential as a rookie.  I just think they have the right mix of shooting, defense, speed, and raw talent, and Smith at 28 is the oldest guy in the rotation.  Drummond and KCP are still just 22 and Harris is just 23.  Johnson just turned 20 after the season ended.

55 still seems like a lot for how young those guys are, but I do like their core. That being said any explanation for Charlotte? Their starting 5 is going to be Kemba, Batum, Marvin Williams, Zeller and Kaminsky? They lost Jefferson, Courtney Lee and Lin while adding Bellinelli and Hibbert. The size contracts the players they lose versus the guys coming in should tell you their relative value. I would be less surprised if they missed than playoffs than if they were around 50 wins. Of all the second level teams in the east the Heat and Hornets took clear steps back while the Raptors stayed the same and the Celtics improved.
The Hornets also added Sessions and get MKG back.  Jefferson only played in 47 games and limited minutes.  I don't actually think losing him will affect the team much, and fully expect MKG to provide what Lee was providing.  Sessions is similar to Lin (maybe a bit worse, but not enough to matter as the first guard off the bench).

Meh I think there is a reason sessions got half the money that Lin did. Lin really was a key player for them and seemed to clearly be their third best player over the course of the season. In the limited minutes Jefferson was a beast statistically getting 12 points and 7 rebounds. They will have landed the deal of the offseason if Hibbert can sniff those numbers. I think if we switched rosters you would be projecting the Celtics Bobcats to win south of 40 games.

I mean a starting frontcourt of Marvin Williams, Kaminsky and Zeller (or MKG Williams and Zeller) has to be the absolute worst in the league. While Kemba is solid, he is not exactly at the Chris Paul, Westbrook, Curry or Lillard level. Heck is actually a notch below IT.

Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #21 on: July 07, 2016, 05:47:55 PM »

Offline Denis998

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Can someone comment why everyone is so down on the Suns? I think they have a good team with a good balance of Youth and Experience.

Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #22 on: July 07, 2016, 05:49:45 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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East

1) Cleveland
2) Boston
3) Toronto
4) Indiana
5-15) I just can't stir myself to sorting these out. :)

West

1) Golden State
2-15) Does it really matter? ;D
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Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #23 on: July 07, 2016, 05:53:43 PM »

Offline max215

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Can someone comment why everyone is so down on the Suns? I think they have a good team with a good balance of Youth and Experience.

Same here. I think they'll be totally fine. Bledsoe is great, Knight's okay, Chandler's okay, Booker's great, Dudley and Barbosa were great signings. It all fits together pretty well too. I don't think they'll be great, but a 9-10 seed sounds right.
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Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2016, 05:58:15 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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I'll just say that I'm quite surprised on how high people have Charlotte. I have them as one of the worst, in fact, I have them as THE worst team right now.

Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #25 on: July 07, 2016, 06:25:07 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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East

1. Cavs
2. Raps
3. C's

West

Who cares

Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #26 on: July 07, 2016, 06:40:18 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I'll just say that I'm quite surprised on how high people have Charlotte. I have them as one of the worst, in fact, I have them as THE worst team right now.

They will be around .500 with batum and walker and a few good role players. Maybe slightly above if MKG comes back and is solid. However, yes they lost half their playoff rotation in Jefferson, Lin and Lee and got back Sessions and, gulp, Hibbert.

Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #27 on: July 07, 2016, 06:53:37 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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East
1. Celtics 82-0
2. Who cares?

West
1. See #2 above.



 ;D
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Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #28 on: July 08, 2016, 09:31:32 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Can someone comment why everyone is so down on the Suns? I think they have a good team with a good balance of Youth and Experience.
I like Bender and Chriss a lot long term, but they are both incredibly raw.  Chandler is deteriorating rapidly, which means they have just Len as a remotely credible big man (and let's not kid ourselves Len is foul prone and a terrible shooter, I mean what kind of center has a 2PT% less than 43%).  Bledsoe is always hurt and doesn't fit that well with Knight anyway.  Warren and  Booker have shown good promise, but are still years away from reaching their potential. Tucker and Dudley are nice players, but aren't going to yield a bunch of wins.  I see the Suns as a team that 3 or 4 years from now will be very good (Knight, Booker, Warren, Chriss, and Bender with Len has the makings of a great top 6), but next year they will be one of, if not the worst, team in the NBA. 
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Re: As of July 7 - Project the East and West
« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2016, 09:33:30 AM »

Offline LGC88

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East
1. Celtics 82-0
2. Who cares?

West
1. See #2 above.



 ;D

TP
I'll root for that any year with any player we have.
That's the Celtics spirit.  8)