As of July 7 - Project the East and West

[Moranis]

I have a 5 win range on the projections and again this is as of right now with the announced moves.  I didn't compare to make sure I didn't over or under estimate the total games as it is just a rough projection.  I am also assuming reasonable health of all players (so some injury but not major ones for long time periods).

East
1. Cavs 55-60 wins
2. Pistons 50-55 wins
3. Hornets 48-53 wins
4. Raptors 48-53 wins
5. Celtics 47-52 wins
6. Pacers 46-51 wins
7. Bulls 44-49 wins
8. Bucks 40-45 wins
9. Hawks 37-42 wins
10. Knicks 37-42 wins
11. Heat 37-42 wins
12. Wizards 33-38 wins
13. Magic 33-38 wins
14. Nets 30-35 wins
15. Sixers 22-27 wins

West
1. Warriors 65-70 wins
2. Spurs 60-65 wins
3. Clippers 55-60 wins
4. Blazers 42-47 wins
5. Mavericks 42-47 wins
6. Jazz 42-47 wins
7. Thunder 41-46 wins
8. Grizzlies 40-45 wins
9. Pelicans 40-45 wins
10. Rockets 36-41 wins
11. Wolves 33-38 wins
12. Kings 33-38 wins
13. Nuggets 30-35 wins
14. Lakers 20-25 wins
15. Suns 18-23 wins

[Ilikesports17]

East
1. Cavs 55-60 wins
2. Pacers 49-54 wins
3. Celtics 49-54 wins
4. Raptors 48-53 wins
5. Pistons 48-53 wins
6. Hornets 46-51 wins
7. Hawks 44-49 wins
8. Bucks 40-45 wins
9. Bulls 37-42 wins
10. Knicks 37-42 wins
11. Heat 37-42 wins
12. Wizards 33-38 wins
13. Magic 33-38 wins
14. Sixers 30-35 wins
15. Nets 22-27 wins

used your rankings as a template because I didnt want to go through the whole thing.

Honestly Ive got no idea really. This is so rare where so many teams have added and subtracted so much talent.

I mean 2 years ago Washington almost won 50, the Pistons are young and improving, the Magic added Ibaka and Biyombo and all their young guys should get better, the Knicks added a ton, the Hawks lost Teague and Horford, but they added Dwight and Schroeder will make the loss of Teague much less devastating. The pacers added a bunch of guys, the Hornets more or less bring their 48 win roster back, the raptors lose Biyombo but thats about it. The bucks still have Middleton parker and GA and thats too much talent to expect not to make the playoffs. The Bulls added Rondo and Wade and Lopez but lose gasol and Rose. We have no idea what teams will work chemistrywise and what wont. Last year Milwaukee and Washington were supposed to be clear cut playoff teams and Charlotte was not.

I think you can guarantee Philly and Brooklyn wont make it and that the Cavs are the cream of the crop but everything in between is completely up in the air.

[LarBrd33]

Warriors:  82-0



Everyone else:



This thing is all wrapped up until 2026.

[celticsclay]

I have a 5 win range on the projections and again this is as of right now with the announced moves.  I didn't compare to make sure I didn't over or under estimate the total games as it is just a rough projection.  I am also assuming reasonable health of all players (so some injury but not major ones for long time periods).

East
1. Cavs 55-60 wins
2. Pistons 50-55 wins
3. Hornets 48-53 wins
4. Raptors 48-53 wins
5. Celtics 47-52 wins
6. Pacers 46-51 wins
7. Bulls 44-49 wins
8. Bucks 40-45 wins
9. Hawks 37-42 wins
10. Knicks 37-42 wins
11. Heat 37-42 wins
12. Wizards 33-38 wins
13. Magic 33-38 wins
14. Nets 30-35 wins
15. Sixers 22-27 wins

West
1. Warriors 65-70 wins
2. Spurs 60-65 wins
3. Clippers 55-60 wins
4. Blazers 42-47 wins
5. Mavericks 42-47 wins
6. Jazz 42-47 wins
7. Thunder 41-46 wins
8. Grizzlies 40-45 wins
9. Pelicans 40-45 wins
10. Rockets 36-41 wins
11. Wolves 33-38 wins
12. Kings 33-38 wins
13. Nuggets 30-35 wins
14. Lakers 20-25 wins
15. Suns 18-23 wins

The one that really jumps out at me is Charlotte above Boston. They don't have a ton of young players that are improving and they lost both Al Jefferson and Lin who played keys roles for them. How they would be expected to be better while the Celtics are worse adding a perennial all-star is pretty puzzling. Also the Pistons with 55 wins seems like quite a jump. Is this based off their strong playoff showing? (close games against Cleveland)

[max215]

East
1. Cavs: 53-58
2. Celtics: 52-57
3. Raptors: 49-54
4. Hornets: 44-49
5. Pacers: 43-48
6. Hawks: 42-47
7. Pistons: 42-47
8. Wizards: 42-47
9. Bucks: 40-45
10. Heat: 39-44
11. Knicks: 38-43
12. Bulls: 37-42
13. Magic: 29-34
14. Nets: 24-29
15. Sixers: 18-23

West
1. Warriors: 67-72
2. Spurs: 57-62
3. Jazz: 50-55
4. Clippers: 50-55
5. Grizzlies: 49-54
6. Blazers: 41-46
7. Thunder: 40-45
8. Mavs: 40-45
9. Rockets: 38-43
10. Pelicans: 36-41
11. Suns: 35-40
12. Wolves: 34-39
13. Nuggets: 32-37
14. Kings: 21-26
15. Lakers: 18-23

Outside of the Kings and Lakers, I could see everyone in the West being pretty good.

Edit: Upped the Warriors' wins

[PhoSita]

I'm not going to go with team-specific win totals, or a wide range, because I just know people will pull it up 10 months from now and make fun of me.

Instead, I'm gonna go with "Tiers" -- I love tiers -- and give a general win range for the teams in that tier.

Got it?  OK.


West

Tier 1 (70ish wins) - Warriors

Tier 2 (60ish wins) - Spurs, Clippers

Tier 3 (50ish wins) - Thunder, Rockets, Jazz, Grizzlies

Tier 4 (40-45ish wins) - Mavericks, Blazers

Tier 5 (30-35ish wins) - T-Wolves, Nuggets, Kings

Tier 6 (<30 wins) - Lakers, Suns, Pelicans


East

Tier 1 (55-60ish wins) - Cavaliers

Tier 2 (50ish wins) - Raptors, Celtics, Hornets, Pacers

Tier 3 (40-45ish wins) - Hawks, Pistons, Heat, Bucks, Wizards

Tier 4 (<40 wins) - Bulls, Knicks, Magic

Tier 5 (<30 wins) - Sixers, Nets



Bigger picture:

Title Favorite - Warriors

Teams With A Puncher's Chance - Cavaliers, Spurs, Clippers

Teams Gunning for the Lottery - Sixers, Nets (yay!), Lakers, Suns, Pelicans

The Middle - Everybody Else

[JBcat]

East
1. Cavs 55-60 wins
2. Celtics 47-52 wins
3. Pacers 47-52 wins
4. Raptors 47-52 wins
5. Pistons 40-45 wins
6. Hawks 40-45 wins
7. Bulls 40-45 wins
8. Bucks 40-45 wins
9. Wizards 37-42 wins
10. Knicks 37-42 wins
11. Hornets 30-35 wins
12. Magic 30-35 wins
13. Heat 20-25 wins
14. Nets 20-25 wins
15. Sixers 20-25 wins

I only have time to think about the East right now. Lol

[LarBrd33]

If the warriors add Kevin Durant and finish with 8 less wins than they did last year, they should be ashamed of themselves.

[max215]

If the warriors add Kevin Durant and finish with 8 less wins than they did last year, they should be ashamed of themselves.

I think most people are assuming they'll take a Spursian approach to the regular season.

[max215]

TP Pho, the tier system's a good idea.

[jpotter33]

I'm not going to go with team-specific win totals, or a wide range, because I just know people will pull it up 10 months from now and make fun of me.

Instead, I'm gonna go with "Tiers" -- I love tiers -- and give a general win range for the teams in that tier.

Got it?  OK.


West

Tier 1 (70ish wins) - Warriors

Tier 2 (60ish wins) - Spurs, Clippers

Tier 3 (50ish wins) - Thunder, Rockets, Jazz, Grizzlies

Tier 4 (40-45ish wins) - Mavericks, Blazers

Tier 5 (30-35ish wins) - T-Wolves, Nuggets, Kings

Tier 6 (<30 wins) - Lakers, Suns, Pelicans


East

Tier 1 (55-60ish wins) - Cavaliers

Tier 2 (50ish wins) - Raptors, Celtics, Hornets, Pacers

Tier 3 (40-45ish wins) - Hawks, Pistons, Heat, Bucks, Wizards

Tier 4 (<40 wins) - Bulls, Knicks, Magic

Tier 5 (<30 wins) - Sixers, Nets



Bigger picture:

Title Favorite - Warriors

Teams With A Puncher's Chance - Cavaliers, Spurs, Clippers

Teams Gunning for the Lottery - Sixers, Nets (yay!), Lakers, Suns, Pelicans

The Middle - Everybody Else

Id agree with something like this, though I'm not sure the Hornets are in tier 2 rather than tier 3.

Also, the title contender stuff I'd do a little differently. GS is the favorite, but I'd have them in true contenders group with SA, Cle, and LAC. I'd then have faux/semi-contenders with the Raptors, Celtics, and Trail Blazers, who are all legitimately one move away from true contender status.

[LarBrd33]

If the warriors add Kevin Durant and finish with 8 less wins than they did last year, they should be ashamed of themselves.

I think most people are assuming they'll take a Spursian approach to the regular season.

It's not like these guys were playing 43 minutes per night anyways.   All three of their guys averaged 33-34mpg.  Even if they start benching players for entire games due to rest (which is ridiculous considering all these guys are in their mid 20s), they should be outright humiliated if they win less than 73 games next season. 

You put Durant on the Nets and they'd win 55 games.   Add Durant to the Warriors, and they should go undefeated.

[Moranis]

I have a 5 win range on the projections and again this is as of right now with the announced moves.  I didn't compare to make sure I didn't over or under estimate the total games as it is just a rough projection.  I am also assuming reasonable health of all players (so some injury but not major ones for long time periods).

East
1. Cavs 55-60 wins
2. Pistons 50-55 wins
3. Hornets 48-53 wins
4. Raptors 48-53 wins
5. Celtics 47-52 wins
6. Pacers 46-51 wins
7. Bulls 44-49 wins
8. Bucks 40-45 wins
9. Hawks 37-42 wins
10. Knicks 37-42 wins
11. Heat 37-42 wins
12. Wizards 33-38 wins
13. Magic 33-38 wins
14. Nets 30-35 wins
15. Sixers 22-27 wins

West
1. Warriors 65-70 wins
2. Spurs 60-65 wins
3. Clippers 55-60 wins
4. Blazers 42-47 wins
5. Mavericks 42-47 wins
6. Jazz 42-47 wins
7. Thunder 41-46 wins
8. Grizzlies 40-45 wins
9. Pelicans 40-45 wins
10. Rockets 36-41 wins
11. Wolves 33-38 wins
12. Kings 33-38 wins
13. Nuggets 30-35 wins
14. Lakers 20-25 wins
15. Suns 18-23 wins

The one that really jumps out at me is Charlotte above Boston. They don't have a ton of young players that are improving and they lost both Al Jefferson and Lin who played keys roles for them. How they would be expected to be better while the Celtics are worse adding a perennial all-star is pretty puzzling. Also the Pistons with 55 wins seems like quite a jump. Is this based off their strong playoff showing? (close games against Cleveland)

The Pistons were 16-9 in games Harris started for them, which is a 52.5 win pace over 82.  I believe they have the 2nd best starting lineup in the East with Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Harris, Morris, and Drummond and with the addition of Leuer and Smith to their bench they are now a quality 9 deep (Johnson and Baynes) and that doesn't even count Ellenson who has nice potential as a rookie.  I just think they have the right mix of shooting, defense, speed, and raw talent, and Smith at 28 is the oldest guy in the rotation.  Drummond and KCP are still just 22 and Harris is just 23.  Johnson just turned 20 after the season ended. 

[Moranis]

If the warriors add Kevin Durant and finish with 8 less wins than they did last year, they should be ashamed of themselves.

73 was a fluke though.  They lost a lot of games in the playoffs, which is probably a bit better representation of what kind of team they were i.e. a great team, even a historically great team, but not the best team in NBA history good.  Their expected W/L based on metrics according to basketball-reference was 65-17, which is probably more reasonable for the type of team they actually were. 

[celticsclay]

I have a 5 win range on the projections and again this is as of right now with the announced moves.  I didn't compare to make sure I didn't over or under estimate the total games as it is just a rough projection.  I am also assuming reasonable health of all players (so some injury but not major ones for long time periods).

East
1. Cavs 55-60 wins
2. Pistons 50-55 wins
3. Hornets 48-53 wins
4. Raptors 48-53 wins
5. Celtics 47-52 wins
6. Pacers 46-51 wins
7. Bulls 44-49 wins
8. Bucks 40-45 wins
9. Hawks 37-42 wins
10. Knicks 37-42 wins
11. Heat 37-42 wins
12. Wizards 33-38 wins
13. Magic 33-38 wins
14. Nets 30-35 wins
15. Sixers 22-27 wins

West
1. Warriors 65-70 wins
2. Spurs 60-65 wins
3. Clippers 55-60 wins
4. Blazers 42-47 wins
5. Mavericks 42-47 wins
6. Jazz 42-47 wins
7. Thunder 41-46 wins
8. Grizzlies 40-45 wins
9. Pelicans 40-45 wins
10. Rockets 36-41 wins
11. Wolves 33-38 wins
12. Kings 33-38 wins
13. Nuggets 30-35 wins
14. Lakers 20-25 wins
15. Suns 18-23 wins

The one that really jumps out at me is Charlotte above Boston. They don't have a ton of young players that are improving and they lost both Al Jefferson and Lin who played keys roles for them. How they would be expected to be better while the Celtics are worse adding a perennial all-star is pretty puzzling. Also the Pistons with 55 wins seems like quite a jump. Is this based off their strong playoff showing? (close games against Cleveland)

The Pistons were 16-9 in games Harris started for them, which is a 52.5 win pace over 82.  I believe they have the 2nd best starting lineup in the East with Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Harris, Morris, and Drummond and with the addition of Leuer and Smith to their bench they are now a quality 9 deep (Johnson and Baynes) and that doesn't even count Ellenson who has nice potential as a rookie.  I just think they have the right mix of shooting, defense, speed, and raw talent, and Smith at 28 is the oldest guy in the rotation.  Drummond and KCP are still just 22 and Harris is just 23.  Johnson just turned 20 after the season ended.

55 still seems like a lot for how young those guys are, but I do like their core. That being said any explanation for Charlotte? Their starting 5 is going to be Kemba, Batum, Marvin Williams, Zeller and Kaminsky? They lost Jefferson, Courtney Lee and Lin while adding Bellinelli and Hibbert. The size contracts the players they lose versus the guys coming in should tell you their relative value. I would be less surprised if they missed than playoffs than if they were around 50 wins. Of all the second level teams in the east the Heat and Hornets took clear steps back while the Raptors stayed the same and the Celtics improved.