The Celtics are a lock to get out of the 1st round

[Kuberski33]

Olynyk, Bradley, and Crowder were injured for the playoffs.
So if we stay healthy, we are adding Olynyk, Bradley, Crowder, and Horton.
We should be much better.

Without a guy who can distribute the ball in their half court offense everything is going to bog down as there is no true point guard on the roster.  Turner was the defacto PG.  Plus he could score off the dribble. 

This doesn't show up so much earlier in games but its a huge factor in the 4Q when the other team is focused on getting stops-- which is why Turner was usually out there the final 6 minutes.  Without him they'll see a lot more of their passes being deflected, spacing will be a problem and it will be easier to guard their 3 pt shooters because there's no threat of anyone save for IT penetrating and getting some offense going to the basket - at least consistently.

It will just be a lot harder for them to score late in games than it was last year - and that will translate to more losses - if they don't replace him.  Obviously there's still plenty of time.

[Granath]

The Knicks are better.  Brooklyn and Philadelphia are both a lot better.  Remember those were the 3 worst teams in the East last year and all were in the Atlantic.  It helps the W/L record when you have more games against the worst teams than anyone else (aside from Toronto of course).  I certainly don't think Brooklyn and Philadelphia will be better than Boston, just better.  The Knicks though are an interesting team.  They still have Anthony and Zingis should be a lot better.  Who knows what Rose and Noah will be.  They have a shot to be pretty good. 

Charlotte should be better than last year and were a 48 win team.  Chicago and Indiana should both be a good deal better though not sure they will pass Boston.  Detroit was a better team than Boston down the stretch after the Harris trade, I would expect they will only get better.  Cleveland and Toronto should both still be better than us.  Atlanta is interesting as they basically swap Howard for Horford and turned the keys over to Schroder.

So as of right now, I would put Boston in the 5 to 7 range clearly behind Cleveland and behind Toronto, Charlotte, and Detroit and right in the same general range as Chicago and Indiana.  I think Atlanta, Miami, Milwaukee, and New York will be fighting for the 8 spot.  There is a lot of parity outside of Cleveland again in the East.

You have to love pessimists.

1. The jury is really out on whether the Knicks are better. Rose has been worse than a replacement level player the last few years. Noah couldn't get off the bench last year and unless he finds the fountain of youth he may very well be done as a player.

2. Brooklyn lost their 2nd best player. How are they a LOT better again?

3. I might agree with you about Phlly but the only way they're significantly better is with their draftees and development. And if they're getting that benefit from you, why would you not apply the same logic to the Celtics young players?

4. The Pistons finished with 4 fewer wins last season. Exactly what have they done to surpass the Celtics now? Is somehow the combination of Ishe Smith and Leuer 5 wins better than Al Hortford?

5. I don't think much of Chicago's moves because I don't think the pieces fit well. Who the heck is going to shoot from the outside? It's not like Wade, Butler and Rondo are greatly respected outside shooters. Wade and Rondo are a wonderful combination 5 years ago. Now? It remains to be seen.

----

I could continue this breakdown but frankly it's getting stale for me already. It's all conjecture until they play the games. But there were 5 teams tightly clustered last year: Charlotte, Indy, Boston, Miami and Atlanta. Two of those teams got a lot better: Boston and Indy. Charlotte looks like they are treading water. Miami and Atlanta got appreciably worse. I don't see anyone below that group of teams that dramatically improved to get into this group.

[Granath]

Without a guy who can distribute the ball in their half court offense everything is going to bog down as there is no true point guard on the roster. 

Ahem...IT finished 11th in the NBA in assists last year. You may want to rethink your post.

[Chris22]

Olynyk, Bradley, and Crowder were injured for the playoffs.
So if we stay healthy, we are adding Olynyk, Bradley, Crowder, and Horton.
We should be much better.

Without a guy who can distribute the ball in their half court offense everything is going to bog down as there is no true point guard on the roster.  Turner was the defacto PG.  Plus he could score off the dribble. 

This doesn't show up so much earlier in games but its a huge factor in the 4Q when the other team is focused on getting stops-- which is why Turner was usually out there the final 6 minutes.  Without him they'll see a lot more of their passes being deflected, spacing will be a problem and it will be easier to guard their 3 pt shooters because there's no threat of anyone save for IT penetrating and getting some offense going to the basket - at least consistently.

It will just be a lot harder for them to score late in games than it was last year - and that will translate to more losses - if they don't replace him.  Obviously there's still plenty of time.

IT, Rozier, and Jackson are all true point guards.
And we added an allstar forward and a very talented rookie to the mix.
We are going to be better.

[manl_lui]

I don't think it's a lock, we improved and the expectation is to at least get out of the first round, but anything can happen. Chicago, Indiana, and NY all has improved. Hell in my honest opinion, the 76ers are done tanking so they might decide to start competing, I don't know how much but don't expect them to get blown out often next year, I don't see them as a threat but they will compete, Simmons and Embiid are both ready to play. Cavs and Raptors in my opinion should still be on the top 4 if not top 2 teams of the East. If we don't improve much next year and say we get 7th or 8th seed, we'll still get bounced by them.

Miami just went down, so I don't seem them making playoffs next year. NY depends entirely on how healthy that team is.

[LilRip]

Olynyk, Bradley, and Crowder were injured for the playoffs.
So if we stay healthy, we are adding Olynyk, Bradley, Crowder, and Horton.
We should be much better.

Without a guy who can distribute the ball in their half court offense everything is going to bog down as there is no true point guard on the roster.  Turner was the defacto PG.  Plus he could score off the dribble. 

This doesn't show up so much earlier in games but its a huge factor in the 4Q when the other team is focused on getting stops-- which is why Turner was usually out there the final 6 minutes.  Without him they'll see a lot more of their passes being deflected, spacing will be a problem and it will be easier to guard their 3 pt shooters because there's no threat of anyone save for IT penetrating and getting some offense going to the basket - at least consistently.

It will just be a lot harder for them to score late in games than it was last year - and that will translate to more losses - if they don't replace him.  Obviously there's still plenty of time.

Id say the reason there's no spacing is because we didn't have 3pt shooters. Shooting was a problem for this team and unless Smart improves, it still is.

[walker834]

IT, Smart, Rozier, Hunter are going to offset anything Turner brought to this team and actually be better. Injuries are going to happen but no reason to think Bradley and Crowder are going to regress. P lus  we added Brown even if they do.

Smart in general is going to improve. It's not so much thinking everyone will do that but Horford is an upgrade of Sully. No reason to think Isaiah barring injury won't repeat last years performance. 

KO should see incremental improvements. 

I'll be surprised and disapointed if Jerebko is our starting 4 at the end of the year.

Turner was very limited as a player.  He can't shoot the 3 was high turnovers.  Good player but I don't think his loss will mean much.  I'd rather have shooters on the floor anyways.  Especially now that we have horford.

Plus trades.  The celtics are gearing up for something big to happen eventually.  this might be the year might not.

But every season there has been improvement.  I don't see why this year will be any different. I think this is the year we get out of the  1st round.

[walker834]

Turner was valuable as a creator of offense but what did he do that Rozier, Smart, Jaylen and guys like Hunter can't do better?  We have much more options there and a variety of ways to create offense. It's not like Turner is this huge leap in talent over guys like marcus or jaylen. he isn't the shooter rozier is or the defender those guys can be.  I also expect Rj and Young to potentially actually contribute as shooters.

Losing Turner is a plus to me where it actually opens up minutes for some of these other guys. Smart is going to get his 30mpg and can actually handle the ball now too without Turner there.

[Donoghus]

If they stay healthy, I don't see any reason why this Celtics can't be in the conference finals next season. 

Other than Indy and Toronto, I don't know see who else can challenge a healthy Celtics squad for a spot in the conference finals against the Cavs. 

This Celtics team is better than last season's squad.  There's no way around that.  Boston got better and a fair amount the east probably got worse.

[Granath]

It's really this simple.

Positives
48 wins last year as the starting point
Added Hortford, one of the top FAs in the league and plays a position of need
#3 overall pick in the NBA draft (Brown)
Many 1st and 2nd year players, quite a few of whom should have significant improvement
No significant players who are on the downside of their careers

Negatives
Lost Evan Turner (whose abilities can be replaced by a multitude of players). The end.

Meanwhile, looking at the competition for that 3rd spot last year:
Detroit (treading water)
Indy (got better)
Charlotte (treading water)
Atlanta (got worse)
Miami (got worse)

In the next tier down the Knicks and Chicago made interesting moves but with older players whose names carry more status than their games nowadays (Rose, Wade, Rondo, Noah).

You don't even have to be an optimist to see that the Cs likely took another step forward as compared to their competition. Just being a realist will do.

[dreamgreen]

I don't think so. Right now I don't think we are any better. Horford is a big upgrade over Sully but whomever takes over Turner's minutes will be a downgrade at this point. 48 wins again sounds right to me, second round will be based on who we play again.

Frankly, I think you're nuts about the Cs are not any better right now. Currently there's been one gain (Hortford) and one loss (Turner) of established meaningful players. Hortford >>>> Turner. That's it and it just may be that simple.

Then there's also been the acquisition of the #3 pick in the draft in Jaylen Brown. This is also a meaningful acquisition.

Then there's the natural maturity of a group of young players. Smart. Rozier. Hunter. Mickey. Odds are that at least one of those guys will get significantly better this season. But because the team is so young there's no real offset on the older side. Amir perhaps but how much worse would you expect him to be?

-----

That's the simple analysis. But let's look at what was lost when Turner departed and how it gets replaced. Remember that if you bother to do a search you'll find that I've been a Turner supporter even at times when most of CB couldn't stand him.

Turner is a jack of all trades player. He's a decent but not good scorer, rebounder and can run the offense. He's only acceptable on defense. He can't shoot from outside at ALL. What he offered the team is a guy who could play off the bench, help win the 2nd team battles and could play backup point guard. He was one of the few Celtics who could create his own shot so long as he was playing against 2nd tier guys. He was a valuable steadying influence on the court and a good pro. He was also lucky that Brad put him in situations and with players that helped him to succeed.

But I believe the Cs already have replaced his capabilities. Guys like Rozier and Brown all have roles to play and quite likely will be better in individual areas than Turner was. We should have a backup SF who can put the ball on the floor and create his own shot. We should have the backup PG who can penetrate and run the team. We have guys who can come in and steady a younger 2nd team. We've got guys with the length, the speed and the game to fill every role that Turner had. No, it's not all the same player but these guys may very well be better in those individual roles than Turner was.

I wish Evan the best and appreciate his many contributions. But there may not be a good place for him on this team anymore. I think the Cs may have grown past his abilities.

I'll admit I missed a few games this year but the others that I watched every moment of tells me more of Turner. At times in the fourth quarter he was the only one creating his own offense and making things happen out there. The fact you believe in players that have proven absolutely nothing in the NBA to this point doesn't make me feel any better at all. I have hope but zero proof! And I'm sure as hell not going to expect a 19 year old rookie to come in and make things happen on a playoff team. It would be awesome if he does but in my mind he's a bench warmer until proven otherwise. So if you think I'm nuts for being realistic and logical so be it but that's why I'm right more often than wrong!

[Fafnir]

I guess Turner for Horford is an even trade then if you think we're going to fall behind Detroit. Given Crowder being hurt coincided with Detroit matching Boston's record I'm not concerned about them passing us overall unless Drummond makes a big leap (which he could).

[Fafnir]

I'll admit I missed a few games this year but the others that I watched every moment of tells me more of Turner. At times in the fourth quarter he was the only one creating his own offense and making things happen out there. The fact you believe in players that have proven absolutely nothing in the NBA to this point doesn't make me feel any better at all. I have hope but zero proof! And I'm sure as hell not going to expect a 19 year old rookie to come in and make things happen on a playoff team. It would be awesome if he does but in my mind he's a bench warmer until proven otherwise. So if you think I'm nuts for being realistic and logical so be it but that's why I'm right more often than wrong!

Turner was a useful player who plugged some gaps, but overall he hurt our offense and defense when he was out there. Ideally we'd bring in another backup to fill at least some of the hats he wore in addition to asking Smart to do more.

But with our roster situation we may just be handing that off to Brown/Smart, which will cause some heartache. But then again Turner's contract would cause the C's a heck of a lot more heartache.

What a bad contract my word.

[Chief]

The Knicks are better.  Brooklyn and Philadelphia are both a lot better.  Remember those were the 3 worst teams in the East last year and all were in the Atlantic.  It helps the W/L record when you have more games against the worst teams than anyone else (aside from Toronto of course).  I certainly don't think Brooklyn and Philadelphia will be better than Boston, just better.  The Knicks though are an interesting team.  They still have Anthony and Zingis should be a lot better.  Who knows what Rose and Noah will be.  They have a shot to be pretty good. 

Charlotte should be better than last year and were a 48 win team.  Chicago and Indiana should both be a good deal better though not sure they will pass Boston.  Detroit was a better team than Boston down the stretch after the Harris trade, I would expect they will only get better.  Cleveland and Toronto should both still be better than us.  Atlanta is interesting as they basically swap Howard for Horford and turned the keys over to Schroder.

So as of right now, I would put Boston in the 5 to 7 range clearly behind Cleveland and behind Toronto, Charlotte, and Detroit and right in the same general range as Chicago and Indiana.  I think Atlanta, Miami, Milwaukee, and New York will be fighting for the 8 spot.  There is a lot of parity outside of Cleveland again in the East.

Indiana really improved their roster. Add

Teague
Big AL
Thad Young

To

Monta Ellis
Paul George
Myles Turner
Ty Lawson

Rumor is Lance Stephenson is returning too.

Well done Larry Bird.

[PhoSita]

In what way is Brooklyn "a lot better"?