Did Durant just ensure there will be a lockout?

[celticsclay]

A day after letting the shock of the Durant to Golden State news sink in, I can't help but now think from a larger perspective how this move may have created more problems for the league than any other move I can remember.

1) 4 of the top 20 players in the league are now on 1 team. That means the rest of the league has 16 players on 29 teams. When you add in that Cleveland, Clippers and San Antonio have 2 each the numbers for the rest of the league get really sobering

2) There are now significant teams that really must have a hard time seeing a path to competing in the next 7 to 8 years until that team is broken up. Unlike the Celtics big 3, who were all their 30's, the Warriors players are all young, and for the most part, still improving.

3) If Oklahoma City loses Westbrook, is that market in danger of being contracted/moved? Maybe they really do have great fans that will keep showing up when the team is no good, but I am not sure if that Market is strong enough to support 20 win seasons.

4) How can the NBA continue to exist without a hard cap? When will Franchise tags or compensatory draft picks be added?

[Fafnir]

I think we were likely to get a lockout anyways, I was hoping it just wouldn't cost us any regular season games this time.

[jpotter33]

It was probably anyways, but it seems to be a certainty now with more demands on the table.

[celticsclay]

I think we were likely to get a lockout anyways, I was hoping it just wouldn't cost us any regular season games this time.

I think until yesterday there were things that owners and players could point to that were evidence of progress in the NBA and argue why a hard cap was not necessary. The Lakers losing Howard for example, Howard signing in Atlanta, Aldridge signing in San Antonio, the management of the Celtics in general. I think all those steps of progress look like pretty small potatoes now with a team expected to win 75 games having 4 of the top 20 talents in the league.

[LarBrd33]

imagine if the (currently pretty weak) rumors of Wade joining the Cavs comes true.

You'll basically have two teams.

Steph, Klay, Durant, Draymond, Zaza

vs

Kyrie, Wade, LeBron, Love, Tristan

....

Well three if you count

Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Oly, Horford.

[jpotter33]

I think we were likely to get a lockout anyways, I was hoping it just wouldn't cost us any regular season games this time.

I think until yesterday there were things that owners and players could point to that were evidence of progress in the NBA and argue why a hard cap was not necessary. The Lakers losing Howard for example, Howard signing in Atlanta, Aldridge signing in San Antonio, the management of the Celtics in general. I think all those steps of progress look like pretty small potatoes now with a team expected to win 75 games having 4 of the top 20 talents in the league.

Who expects them to win 75 games?? They're not matching last year's total. They better rest their guys at the end of the season this year, because we saw what happens when they don't.

[jpotter33]

imagine if the (currently pretty weak) rumors of Wade joining the Cavs comes true.

You'll basically have two teams.

Steph, Klay, Durant, Draymond, Zaza

vs

Kyrie, Wade, LeBron, Love, Tristan

....

Well three if you count

Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Oly, Horford.

They're not getting Wade without losing Love, unless he's going to take the vet's minimum to play there (he's not).

[PhoSita]

The league is doing too well financially for an extended lockout.  Competitive balance and player movement issues will be major bargaining chips, for sure, but at the end of the day nobody will want to mess too much with a good thing.

[CelticGuardian]

A day after letting the shock of the Durant to Golden State news sink in, I can't help but now think from a larger perspective how this move may have created more problems for the league than any other move I can remember.

1) 4 of the top 20 players in the league are now on 1 team. That means the rest of the league has 16 players on 29 teams. When you add in that Cleveland, Clippers and San Antonio have 2 each the numbers for the rest of the league get really sobering

2) There are now significant teams that really must have a hard time seeing a path to competing in the next 7 to 8 years until that team is broken up. Unlike the Celtics big 3, who were all their 30's, the Warriors players are all young, and for the most part, still improving.

3) If Oklahoma City loses Westbrook, is that market in danger of being contracted/moved? Maybe they really do have great fans that will keep showing up when the team is no good, but I am not sure if that Market is strong enough to support 20 win seasons.

4) How can the NBA continue to exist without a hard cap? When will Franchise tags or compensatory draft picks be added?

There's a chance, casual fans like to have clear shoo-ins so they are always right in their "fandom" so it depends on how the NBA sees itself, as the saying goes corporations are people too... and people are fallible. 

[jbpats]

The solution is crystal clear.. End the max salary BS. There is no reason why Lebron James and Kevin Durant should be making the same amount of money as a Derozan or Al Horford.
If a team wants to give Durant $40 mil a season and jeopardize the strength of the rest of their roster to do so, let them.
I'm sure you'll still see some sort of collusion but I highly doubt you will see a superstar taking $20 mil less a season to form a super team.
Until the max salary is lifted this type of collusion will always be a concern.

[celticsclay]

I think we were likely to get a lockout anyways, I was hoping it just wouldn't cost us any regular season games this time.

I think until yesterday there were things that owners and players could point to that were evidence of progress in the NBA and argue why a hard cap was not necessary. The Lakers losing Howard for example, Howard signing in Atlanta, Aldridge signing in San Antonio, the management of the Celtics in general. I think all those steps of progress look like pretty small potatoes now with a team expected to win 75 games having 4 of the top 20 talents in the league.

Who expects them to win 75 games?? They're not matching last year's total. They better rest their guys at the end of the season this year, because we saw what happens when they don't.

I am not sure what their total will be set by Linesmakers, because I have not seen it yet, but they are currently -150 to win the championship next year. This means if you put 150 dollars on them to win the championship you would only get 100 dollars back. I am guessing their projected wins will be around 70.

 As a point of comparison the NFL currently has the Patriots at +750 to win the super as the highest odds (a 100 bet gets you 750 dollars) and baseball (where the odds are decreasing because some teams have ensured they make the playoffs the Cubs are the favorite to win the world series at +350. This should give you an idea of how non-competitive the regular season is in the NBA and how meaningless it is for many fans.

[Surferdad]

Much as I hated David Stern, I just can't imagine we would have allowed this to happen.

[celticsclay]

The league is doing too well financially for an extended lockout.  Competitive balance and player movement issues will be major bargaining chips, for sure, but at the end of the day nobody will want to mess too much with a good thing.

I am not a 100% sure this is true. Are teams like the Bucks, OKC, Brooklyn, Minnesota etc going to continue to be profitable if their attendance continues to slump (well in the case of OKC really starts to slump this year)? I have not followed it super closely but believe the Nets have been trying to sell for some time. Did the pendulum swing after the price of the Clippers purchase? Also, there has long been talk of adding a team to Seattle. I think there just isn't enough talent right now (largely because it is stuck on 3-4 teams) to add a new player. These are all major issues.

[celticsclay]

Much as I hated David Stern, I just can't imagine we would have allowed this to happen.

I guess I am a little surprised that Durant did not receive a lot more pressure than was reported to not join Steph and the Warriors. I think Stern would have made a vague comment about how the NBA would have to look into ways to ensure all teams had an equal shot of getting and maintaining a top talent because a league with concentrated talent  is not good for anyone except for said handful of teams. 

[Surferdad]

I think we were likely to get a lockout anyways, I was hoping it just wouldn't cost us any regular season games this time.

I think until yesterday there were things that owners and players could point to that were evidence of progress in the NBA and argue why a hard cap was not necessary. The Lakers losing Howard for example, Howard signing in Atlanta, Aldridge signing in San Antonio, the management of the Celtics in general. I think all those steps of progress look like pretty small potatoes now with a team expected to win 75 games having 4 of the top 20 talents in the league.

Who expects them to win 75 games?? They're not matching last year's total. They better rest their guys at the end of the season this year, because we saw what happens when they don't.

I am not sure what their total will be set by Linesmakers, because I have not seen it yet, but they are currently -150 to win the championship next year. This means if you put 150 dollars on them to win the championship you would only get 100 dollars back. I am guessing their projected wins will be around 70.

 As a point of comparison the NFL currently has the Patriots at +750 to win the super as the highest odds (a 100 bet gets you 750 dollars) and baseball (where the odds are decreasing because some teams have ensured they make the playoffs the Cubs are the favorite to win the world series at +350. This should give you an idea of how non-competitive the regular season is in the NBA and how meaningless it is for many fans.

I could see GS winning 55 games but repeating as NBA champions. They are now built for the playoffs with short rotations and NOT AT ALL built for a long season where you need to find way to rest your top guys.