Did Durant just ensure there will be a lockout?

[celticsclay]

I think we were likely to get a lockout anyways, I was hoping it just wouldn't cost us any regular season games this time.

I think until yesterday there were things that owners and players could point to that were evidence of progress in the NBA and argue why a hard cap was not necessary. The Lakers losing Howard for example, Howard signing in Atlanta, Aldridge signing in San Antonio, the management of the Celtics in general. I think all those steps of progress look like pretty small potatoes now with a team expected to win 75 games having 4 of the top 20 talents in the league.

Who expects them to win 75 games?? They're not matching last year's total. They better rest their guys at the end of the season this year, because we saw what happens when they don't.

I am not sure what their total will be set by Linesmakers, because I have not seen it yet, but they are currently -150 to win the championship next year. This means if you put 150 dollars on them to win the championship you would only get 100 dollars back. I am guessing their projected wins will be around 70.

 As a point of comparison the NFL currently has the Patriots at +750 to win the super as the highest odds (a 100 bet gets you 750 dollars) and baseball (where the odds are decreasing because some teams have ensured they make the playoffs the Cubs are the favorite to win the world series at +350. This should give you an idea of how non-competitive the regular season is in the NBA and how meaningless it is for many fans.

I could see GS winning 55 games but repeating as NBA champions. They are now built for the playoffs with short rotations and NOT AT ALL built for a long season where you need to find way to rest your top guys.

This is an argument I have long made for why the Heat teams would not be as dominant as some people had said. However, those teams really did have a dropoff in that they were often starting two players like Mario Chalmers, Joel Anthony, Haslem or someone of very mediocre quality alongside their big 3. The warriors actually have a pretty legit big 5 with Curry, Thompson, Durant, Green, Iggy. Their bench/5th starter appears pretty safe with Zaza, livingston, and presumably Barbosa. All that being said, I think the bigger issue may be helped if they only won 55 games, but the bigger topic of the impact of having 4 superstars on one team (in their prime) is really really bad for the NBA and may ultimately impact the league's bottom line.

[action781]

I'm not convinced GSW will dominate the NBA for the next 7 years.  Curry getting a max deal next offseason (and he's not taking less after this bargain contract he will have just finished) is going to make it really difficult to eventually resign Durant since they won't have his bird rights to go over the cap.  I'm not 100% sure, but I created a spreadsheet to analyze their future salaries and I'm pretty sure they need Durant to opt out this offseason, then GSW renounce basically all their free agents to resign Durant.  If Durant opts in for year 2, it appears GSW won't have the cap space to give him a max after that season unless they opt-out/trade all their rookie deals and players except the Big 4.

Also, the depth of Zaza, Shaun Livingston and Iguodala will be huge for GSW this season, but they will all likely be gone after this season leaving GSW very thin depending on Kevon Looney, Damian Jones, and other vet mins plus a MLE or whatever similar exception(s) they have.

[Kane3387]

Yes I think he did but I think it was inevitable anyway

[Fafnir]

I'm not convinced GSW will dominate the NBA for the next 7 years.  Curry getting a max deal next offseason (and he's not taking less after this bargain contract he will have just finished) is going to make it really difficult to eventually resign Durant since they won't have his bird rights to go over the cap.

They will resign him under the non-bird exception which is 120% of his current salary at 4.5% raises for up to 4 years.

The salary cap will not rise enough for 120% of this years max to not be next years max.

[celticsclay]

I'm not convinced GSW will dominate the NBA for the next 7 years.  Curry getting a max deal next offseason (and he's not taking less after this bargain contract he will have just finished) is going to make it really difficult to eventually resign Durant since they won't have his bird rights to go over the cap.  I'm not 100% sure, but I created a spreadsheet to analyze their future salaries and I'm pretty sure they need Durant to opt out this offseason, then GSW renounce basically all their free agents to resign Durant.  If Durant opts in for year 2, it appears GSW won't have the cap space to give him a max after that season unless they opt-out/trade all their rookie deals and players except the Big 4.

Also, the depth of Zaza, Shaun Livingston and Iguodala will be huge for GSW this season, but they will all likely be gone after this season leaving GSW very thin depending on Kevon Looney, Damian Jones, and other vet mins plus a MLE or whatever similar exception(s) they have.

I am not convinced that they will dominate either, but I do think it doesn't even matter if it really happens. If you are an NBA owner for one of about 20 teams going into a year you are really selling hope. Hope you get a high talent young player, hope your own players turn into stars and hope that you can sign or trade for a big free agent. Now that hope is a lot harder to sell than it ever has been before. Can you imagine if when the Heat got Wade, Bosh and Lebron they had also added Chris Paul or Carmelo Anthony one season in? The fact is that 4 of the top players are now on one team and because of veteran players like Zaza, West and presumably a few others, more players will fill out their bench. We are a 48 win team that added a perennial all-star AND a top 3 pick. Can you imagine trying to get excited about the NBA season and feel some hope if you are in Sac, Milwaukee, Chicago, Brooklyn? Even middling teams like the Mavericks and Rockets must feel pretty hopeless. It is an awful feel for the NBA as a whole.

[Moranis]

imagine if the (currently pretty weak) rumors of Wade joining the Cavs comes true.

You'll basically have two teams.

Steph, Klay, Durant, Draymond, Zaza

vs

Kyrie, Wade, LeBron, Love, Tristan

....

Well three if you count

Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Oly, Horford.

They're not getting Wade without losing Love, unless he's going to take the vet's minimum to play there (he's not).

They could trade Frye and Shumpert instead of Love.

[BitterJim]

I'm not convinced GSW will dominate the NBA for the next 7 years.  Curry getting a max deal next offseason (and he's not taking less after this bargain contract he will have just finished) is going to make it really difficult to eventually resign Durant since they won't have his bird rights to go over the cap.

They will resign him under the non-bird exception which is 120% of his current salary at 4.5% raises for up to 4 years.

The salary cap will not rise enough for 120% of this years max to not be next years max.

The cap won't rise enough for it to matter, but moving from the 6-9 year max to the 10+ should be a significant enough change

[PhoSita]

imagine if the (currently pretty weak) rumors of Wade joining the Cavs comes true.

You'll basically have two teams.

Steph, Klay, Durant, Draymond, Zaza

vs

Kyrie, Wade, LeBron, Love, Tristan

....

Well three if you count

Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Oly, Horford.

They're not getting Wade without losing Love, unless he's going to take the vet's minimum to play there (he's not).

They could trade Frye and Shumpert instead of Love.

What does Miami have to gain by taking on Shumpert and Frye instead of simply letting Wade go?

[libermaniac]

The solution is crystal clear.. End the max salary BS. There is no reason why Lebron James and Kevin Durant should be making the same amount of money as a Derozan or Al Horford.
If a team wants to give Durant $40 mil a season and jeopardize the strength of the rest of their roster to do so, let them.
I'm sure you'll still see some sort of collusion but I highly doubt you will see a superstar taking $20 mil less a season to form a super team.
Until the max salary is lifted this type of collusion will always be a concern.

Yep agreed.  Add that to a hard cap with no freaking exceptions (Sorry Larry Bird), and it's all fixed.  Just like the NFL.

[Smokeeye123]

Yeah I agree that max deals have to go. If a team wants to pay Durant 50mil a year, let them. Top 10 players are worth more than 1/3 team salary in the NBA.

More than any other sport NBA is a singular talent league.

[celticsclay]

Yeah I agree that max deals have to go. If a team wants to pay Durant 50mil a year, let them. Top 10 players are worth more than 1/3 team salary in the NBA.

More than any other sport NBA is a singular talent league.

However, the players union would never support this since the majority of their members would get screwed over by this change.

[Eja117]

I just feel like teams managed well (like the Celtics and Spurs) will do well no matter what and teams managed poorly will do poorly.

I feel the bigger threat to balance in the league is tanking. Tanking happens every single year, whereas the situation KD was in is a very rare event brought about only because of the rise in the cap that everyone knew was coming.

Further it's becoming a cultural issue for the players themselves. We want the players to be less greedy and be good teammates and make sacrifices, but when Wade, Bron, and Bosh took less to team up people had serious issues with that.

You can't have your cake and eat it too. In a manner of speaking the worst the league ever was would have been the 80's right? Multiple HOFers on teams? No cap? But we think of that as a golden era.

I definitely think the league has issues that can and should be addressed, but it would take pretty big shifts. How do you get the best players to the worst teams AND stop tanking in a sport where ONE guy changes a whole team for a decade? Not easy any way you slice it.

[TheSundanceKid]

I'm not convinced GSW will dominate the NBA for the next 7 years.  Curry getting a max deal next offseason (and he's not taking less after this bargain contract he will have just finished) is going to make it really difficult to eventually resign Durant since they won't have his bird rights to go over the cap.

They will resign him under the non-bird exception which is 120% of his current salary at 4.5% raises for up to 4 years.

The salary cap will not rise enough for 120% of this years max to not be next years max.

But they will need to use cap space to sign him. So likely they will need to get rid of Iguadola's cap hold before re-signing him. Then re-sign Steph and they will have only the mini mid-level to spend before handing out more min contracts. They are 4 players deep for the foreseeable future. Their bench is gonna be so thin

[jpotter33]

imagine if the (currently pretty weak) rumors of Wade joining the Cavs comes true.

You'll basically have two teams.

Steph, Klay, Durant, Draymond, Zaza

vs

Kyrie, Wade, LeBron, Love, Tristan

....

Well three if you count

Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Oly, Horford.

They're not getting Wade without losing Love, unless he's going to take the vet's minimum to play there (he's not).

They could trade Frye and Shumpert instead of Love.

What does Miami have to gain by taking on Shumpert and Frye instead of simply letting Wade go?

I think that was sarcasm, because he argued that very same thing in another thread.

[TheBig3]

I believe there was a chance of a lockout, I think this move cements it. Teams won't fold as the TV money will keep them alive, however I think the NBA as a whole. People will tune in for to watch the warriors the 1st year as a novelty and will watch the Lebron/GSW part 3 match-up. But it will get old fast.