The main reason Durant won't stay with OKC this summer

[jpotter33]

There are two premises to this argument:

1) It's been widely reported that Durant is not a lock to sign a 1 + 1 this summer and could possibly sign a long-term deal. That is, he's not going to go through this free agency period two summers in a row, because he values stability and doesn't want to be in the spotlight all that much. This is very much in line with his character. So we should expect that the team he chooses this summer will be the team he chooses long-term, and unless there's a catastrophic meltdown, he won't be looking to change teams again next summer. And this doesn't necessarily mean he won't still sign a 1 + 1. He probably still will just for financial reasons and for flexibility in case things don't work out too well. Source: http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/report-kevin-durant-wont-necessarily-sign-short-term-deal-in-free-agency/.

2) It's HIGHLY suspected around the league that Russell Westbrook will leave the OKC Thunder next year in free agency. The suspected target is Los Angeles, because he's both from there and played his college ball there. To me, this is already a foregone conclusion. Westbrook is a large market/high visibility kind of guy who loves fashion and the big lights, which is pretty much the opposite of KD, and that kind of stuff might mean just as much to him as playing in his hometown and in a big market like LA. And you can't really blame him, either. OKC is not a large market that he would thrive in, and most people want to be back closer to home.

Thus, you can bet your arse that KD and Westbrook have had very frank conversations about next summer. It's no coincidence that the noise about him leaving and him looking for a long-term option has grown in the last several weeks when previously it was being reported that he was almost a lock to stay in OKC.

I think he knows that Russell is LA-bound next summer, so he's looking to make his permanent move this year rather than do this two years in a row. He has good team options, so it's not like he's really hurting himself here.

Therefore, if you accept that:

A) he doesn't plan on going through this free agency process two summers in a row (which is in line with his character and a fairly safe bet); and

B) Westbrook is most likely gone in 2017 (which is also widely speculated and a fairly safe bet); then

C) it's more likely that Durant leaves OKC for another team than stays there for the long-term.

Who that team is is another story in itself, but I would bet that KD changes teams this summer.

[Endless Paradise]

.@WojVerticalNBA says teams meeting with Kevin Durant feel they're laying groundwork for '17 FA since they all anticipate his return to OKC.

[jpotter33]

.@WojVerticalNBA says teams meeting with Kevin Durant feel they're laying groundwork for '17 FA since they all anticipate his return to OKC.

I'll believe it when I see it. Durant doesn't seem to be the type to do this two years in a row, and so much can change in a year's time that "doing his due diligence" now doesn't really make any sense. It also would ruin his chances at many teams, such as Golden State and San Antonio. They'll most likely use up their cap space and not be able to really offer Durant a max contract next year with Barnes' contract this year and Steph's contract next year. As for San Antonio, they're interested in Conley, so if they blow their space this year on Conley, who they'd have to move people to make room for anyways, then they likely won't have space next year.

If he's going to change teams, then I think it will be this summer.

[TA9]

.@WojVerticalNBA says teams meeting with Kevin Durant feel they're laying groundwork for '17 FA since they all anticipate his return to OKC.

If that's the case then why not meet with the teams in '17 as opposed to now? Seems like wasting time if it's evident that he will return to OKC this year.

[jpotter33]

.@WojVerticalNBA says teams meeting with Kevin Durant feel they're laying groundwork for '17 FA since they all anticipate his return to OKC.

If that's the case then why not meet with the teams in '17 as opposed to now? Seems like wasting time if it's evident that he will return to OKC this year.

Exactly, which is why I don't buy it. He's genuinely considering leaving if he's doing it this year.

[Fafnir]

His agent is pushing him hard to do the 1 + 1 deal.

Makes the Agent and Durant the most money, though Durant has consistently talked down that option. So who the heck knows what will happen. I do think the fact that he's taking 6 meetings doesn't bode great for OKC.

[Fafnir]

.@WojVerticalNBA says teams meeting with Kevin Durant feel they're laying groundwork for '17 FA since they all anticipate his return to OKC.

If that's the case then why not meet with the teams in '17 as opposed to now? Seems like wasting time if it's evident that he will return to OKC this year.

Exactly, which is why I don't buy it. He's genuinely considering leaving if he's doing it this year.

Yeah I think he wants to settle it now, but who knows players and people are fickle.

Remember the Dwightmare was extended an entire year because he opted in after an emotional game near the trade deadline on the plane.

[jpotter33]

His agent is pushing him hard to do the 1 + 1 deal.

Makes the Agent and Durant the most money, though Durant has consistently talked down that option. So who the heck knows what will happen. I do think the fact that he's taking 6 meetings doesn't bode great for OKC.

Yeah, I mean I still see him doing the 1 + 1 deal for financial reasons and to have an out if things would go bad, but I still think the plan would be to stay wherever he ends up this summer for the foreseeable future rather than doing this all again next year.

[Fafnir]

His agent is pushing him hard to do the 1 + 1 deal.

Makes the Agent and Durant the most money, though Durant has consistently talked down that option. So who the heck knows what will happen. I do think the fact that he's taking 6 meetings doesn't bode great for OKC.

Yeah, I mean I still see him doing the 1 + 1 deal for financial reasons and to have an out if things would go bad, but I still think the plan would be to stay wherever he ends up this summer for the foreseeable future rather than doing this all again next year.

Given Westbrooks FA I don't think a 1 + 1 commits him at all. Obviously he could verbally commit like LeBron did but OKC would still be nervous and the league would still prepare to pitch.

[Endless Paradise]

His agent is pushing him hard to do the 1 + 1 deal.

Makes the Agent and Durant the most money, though Durant has consistently talked down that option. So who the heck knows what will happen. I do think the fact that he's taking 6 meetings doesn't bode great for OKC.

Yeah, I mean I still see him doing the 1 + 1 deal for financial reasons and to have an out if things would go bad, but I still think the plan would be to stay wherever he ends up this summer for the foreseeable future rather than doing this all again next year.

It makes, by far, the most financial sense to stay with OKC for another year and leave next year. If he's doing the 1 + 1 deal for financial reasons, then his most logical option is to stay with OKC for another year. If the money doesn't really matter, then he should be looking to sign a 5-year max deal with whichever team he decides to sign with this summer. Taking a two-year opt out deal with another team is a middle ground option that doesn't really much sense either way, financially or basketball-wise. He loses out on money and what's the point of leaving for another team for just a single year when you know that most of those teams would have serious personnel changes to accommodate KD's contract?

[CoachBo]

Yet there are multiple reports Durant is dead set against the 1 + 1.

The ONLY reason he'll leave OKC is if he's convinced that Westbrook is gone. Otherwise, they have significantly upgraded.

[Moranis]

His agent is pushing him hard to do the 1 + 1 deal.

Makes the Agent and Durant the most money, though Durant has consistently talked down that option. So who the heck knows what will happen. I do think the fact that he's taking 6 meetings doesn't bode great for OKC.

Yeah, I mean I still see him doing the 1 + 1 deal for financial reasons and to have an out if things would go bad, but I still think the plan would be to stay wherever he ends up this summer for the foreseeable future rather than doing this all again next year.

It makes, by far, the most financial sense to stay with OKC for another year and leave next year. If he's doing the 1 + 1 deal for financial reasons, then his most logical option is to stay with OKC for another year. If the money doesn't really matter, then he should be looking to sign a 5-year max deal with whichever team he decides to sign with this summer. Taking a two-year opt out deal with another team is a middle ground option that doesn't really much sense either way, financially or basketball-wise. He loses out on money and what's the point of leaving for another team for just a single year when you know that most of those teams would have serious personnel changes to accommodate KD's contract?

Not true, if he signs with someone else then he can sign a 5 year contract with bigger raises for that team next summer, something he can't do if he switches teams next summer.

[Fafnir]

If Durant leaves it can only be a 4 year deal Endless Paradise.

If he leaves he will get a 4 year max deal with a player option for the fourth year.

[Endless Paradise]

Ah, yes, misspoke, Fafnir.

His agent is pushing him hard to do the 1 + 1 deal.

Makes the Agent and Durant the most money, though Durant has consistently talked down that option. So who the heck knows what will happen. I do think the fact that he's taking 6 meetings doesn't bode great for OKC.

Yeah, I mean I still see him doing the 1 + 1 deal for financial reasons and to have an out if things would go bad, but I still think the plan would be to stay wherever he ends up this summer for the foreseeable future rather than doing this all again next year.

It makes, by far, the most financial sense to stay with OKC for another year and leave next year. If he's doing the 1 + 1 deal for financial reasons, then his most logical option is to stay with OKC for another year. If the money doesn't really matter, then he should be looking to sign a 5-year max deal with whichever team he decides to sign with this summer. Taking a two-year opt out deal with another team is a middle ground option that doesn't really much sense either way, financially or basketball-wise. He loses out on money and what's the point of leaving for another team for just a single year when you know that most of those teams would have serious personnel changes to accommodate KD's contract?

Not true, if he signs with someone else then he can sign a 5 year contract with bigger raises for that team next summer, something he can't do if he switches teams next summer.

Nope, he can't do that with a new team until they have his Bird rights, which they wouldn't for another two seasons.  If he wants to maximize his money, he takes the most money he can get this season (which is with OKC), locks in as a 10-year vet next summer, and then looks to sign a maximum deal next year or, if he leaves, go the LeBron route until his new team has his Bird rights.

[Fafnir]

He could sign a 4 year deal with early-bird raises after two years. 175% of his max this offseason will get him to the max in two years I imagine.

I think that's LeBron's plan at this point. One more 1 + 1 deal via early-bird then a full 5 year to carry him till he's 37.