Chad Ford's Boston Draft Grade

[kozlodoev]

I will say however that I don't like the 31/35 swap. That's the only move I really don't understand.

You gave up two players you probably wouldn't have been able to sign for one likely better player in the future. What's so hard there?

Two foreign players could have been had, pretty decent, including the kid LA picked up.  Put on your thinking cap.

My thinking cap says players picked in the first round are better than players picked in the second round. You can sign "pretty decent" players in free agency.

[greece66]

I will say however that I don't like the 31/35 swap. That's the only move I really don't understand.

You gave up two players you probably wouldn't have been able to sign for one likely better player in the future. What's so hard there?

p much this

originally i got very excited bcs I hoped the pick had no protection, which would have made this trade a steal

with the protection it's a kind of equal value for both teams deal- two early second rounders for a future non lottery first.

we badly needed some deal, as drafting 8 players on the same night would have been a mess.

[Celtics18]

I'm happy with the results from last night.

Danny's a bit stubborn, but I respect that.  A lot of people would have made a move that they might have regretted later because of the intense pressure to do so.

Danny stuck to his guns.  Good for you, Danny, and hopefully good for all of us.

We added some very promising young talent to a team that was two wins shy of fifty last year.

And, we've still got the dough to continue to improve in free agency.

[celticmania]

Brown: B+ (just as good as Murray, Hield, Bender, Chriss) I would've been happy with any one of them. When you compare him to those consensus too players, it makes some sense that we would take him. Its not like any of those prospects are head and shoulders above Brown as a prospect.  I personally think the best prospect at 3 was Dunn but he's not THAT much better. If he was, he would've been taken at 3.

Yab: C- he was a secound rounder in most mocks and he's another tubby undersized big. Its crazy how many players Danny has picked that are either short unathletic bigs and/or small combo guards. It's crazy. The only thing that makes this C- and not a D is the fact that there weren't any clear choices here.

Zicic: A good pick.. He has potential and is a big man we can stash.

31/35 trade: F im sure there were other ways Danny could've avoided picking 8 players on draft night.  31 and 35 are basically like late firsts. The Lakers big would've been good at 35 and the real reason why its am F for me is because I really like Deyonta Davis. Maybe it'll pay off when we get the 20th pick in 3 years but who knows. It could end up being 2 second round picks.

Bentil/Jackson: A good value. Both are first round prospects. Jackson has good athleticism.Bentil is a pure scorer.

Ib would've liked if we made a move and traded the number 3 pick but im sure the pick isnt as valuable as you guys think I mean it was a 2 player draft after all. Probably not too much more valuabl than the 8th pick for example. We weren't going to get a stud with the 3rd pick in a weak draft. Certainly not Jimmy Butler. Don't be mad at Danny for not doing a trade you created in your head. 3 for Butler was never realistic and obviously Danny wouldve done that.  You know for sure he tried to get a star but he couldnt. I'm just happy he tried. I think if Jah was on the table I wouldve done it but you weren't going to get something more than Okafor. People getting mad at Danny for not making a trade is crazy. Theres no way for certain you can know what kind of deals were being proposed because you weren't there. You don't know what the details were. Because i dont know what the details to those trade discussions were, i have no choice but to trust that Danny made the right call. Our team is wierd. For a squad that was as good as we were, our players aren't really that valuable. At this point our most valuable pieces as far as trades are either Avery Bradley or Jaylen Brown ironically. I think we need more talent but we have a good coach and a GM that is gonna try.

So overall I give Danny a B+

[Tr1boy]

Boston Celtics: C


Round 1: Jaylen Brown (3), Guerschon Yabusele (16), Ante Zizic (23)


Round 2: Demetrius Jackson (45), Ben Bentil (51), Abdel Nader (58)


There are two ways to evaluate Boston's draft night.

Based on pure talent, I really like five of the six players the Celtics netted Thursday. Boston probably gets an A- to B+ in that category.

I had Jaylen Brown ranked No. 7 on my Big Board, but there's no question that he has a very high ceiling if he can consistently hit jump shots in the NBA. He wowed the Celtics in workouts. If that's the player that shows up for them, he's got a real shot to be an All-Star someday.

As my colleague Fran Fraschilla said, Yabusele is the French Larry Johnson. He is a beast in the paint, has a great motor and can step out and hit 3s. Zizic is one of the best rebounders in the draft and also has a terrific motor. Yabusele and Zizic can both be stashed overseas, which adds to their value.

In the second round I really liked the value they got from Jackson and Bentil. Jackson is a great athlete, plays hard on both sides of the ball and is an ideal backup point guard. Bentil is a scoring machine who can put up points from anywhere on the floor. I have no idea whether they can crack the roster for Boston, but I like the potential of both players.

Nader wasn't in our top 100, but with their sixth pick at No. 58 it doesn't affect their grade one way or the other.

The other way to grade the draft is on what we expected from the Celtics.

Here, they earn an F. The plan for all of these picks, as the Celtics have talked about on multiple occasions, was to package them (and players) to land a young All-Star.

The Celtics tried hard and got close on a few things, but in the end they didn't deliver. The assets Danny Ainge had just weren't as valuable as he hoped. For Boston and its fans, that's a big disappointment. Nothing that happened Thursday night will move the needle significantly for the Celtics for a couple of years, unless there is a trade that materializes later.

I averaged the two grades together to get a grade of C.

What a clown. He is just upset because non of his predictions came true.

[Celtics18]

Yabu is wide, but he ain't "tubby."  That kid is a chiseled monster.

[RockinRyA]

I actually liked the picks, iffy on Brown but Id give him a chance. Zizic Im really high on, as with Bentil. jackson would have an uphill climb, very good athlete, would have to beat out similar good athlete Marcus Thornton.

[Boris Badenov]

I will say however that I don't like the 31/35 swap. That's the only move I really don't understand.

You gave up two players you probably wouldn't have been able to sign for one likely better player in the future. What's so hard there?

Because two two draws even at lower probability often pay off more often than one at a higher probability. And those probabilities from 20-ish to high 30s aren't that different anyway. (The Clips pick is top-14 protected).

And you don't have to sign them if they don't seem worth it after summer league, or can sign one and cut the other. Overall the option value is much higher than with a low first round pick.

[greece66]

I will say however that I don't like the 31/35 swap. That's the only move I really don't understand.

You gave up two players you probably wouldn't have been able to sign for one likely better player in the future. What's so hard there?

Because two two draws even at lower probability often pay off more often than one at a higher probability. And those probabilities from 20-ish to high 30s aren't that different anyway. (The Clips pick is top-14 protected).

And you don't have to sign them if they don't seem worth it after summer league, or can sign one and cut the other. Overall the option value is much higher than with a low first round pick.

That's food for thought.  I get your point- one player in the 20-30 range is less valuable than two in the 30-35 range. If you see this purely in terms of % of hitting a good player, I'm with you.

Having said this, imo there is a cost that comes in developing a player: playing time, roster spots etc, so developing two mediocre prospects might be worse than developing one.

Also, honest question, how often are early first rounder cut in the summer after the draft? On top of my head, I would think this is rare, but I could well be mistaken.

[Snakehead]

ahahha  Ford is so useless.

A for the draft picks but F because of trades I know nothing about being on the table.

[Boris Badenov]

I will say however that I don't like the 31/35 swap. That's the only move I really don't understand.

You gave up two players you probably wouldn't have been able to sign for one likely better player in the future. What's so hard there?

Because two two draws even at lower probability often pay off more often than one at a higher probability. And those probabilities from 20-ish to high 30s aren't that different anyway. (The Clips pick is top-14 protected).

And you don't have to sign them if they don't seem worth it after summer league, or can sign one and cut the other. Overall the option value is much higher than with a low first round pick.

That's food for thought.  I get your point- one player in the 20-30 range is less valuable than two in the 30-35 range. If you see this purely in terms of % of hitting a good player, I'm with you.

Having said this, imo there is a cost that comes in developing a player: playing time, roster spots etc, so developing two mediocre prospects might be worse than developing one.

Also, honest question, how often are early first rounder cut in the summer after the draft? On top of my head, I would think this is rare, but I could well be mistaken.

You mean second rounders?

If so, its a good question. But keep in mind that even if the guy is good-not-great we could move him for a future second rounder, in all likelihood.

And you don't have the dead money you could face with the first rounder. Witness Fab Melo and James Young who consume(d) roster spots for far longer than their talent warranted simply because their first round contracts were guaranteed.

And let's face it, the most likely outcome with picks in any of these slots is that the guy barely displays NBA-level talent. But with a first-rounder he's taking up space (roster and cap) three years later. The second rounder can be out the door immediately, or a year or two later, but not longer.

[greece66]

I will say however that I don't like the 31/35 swap. That's the only move I really don't understand.

You gave up two players you probably wouldn't have been able to sign for one likely better player in the future. What's so hard there?

Because two two draws even at lower probability often pay off more often than one at a higher probability. And those probabilities from 20-ish to high 30s aren't that different anyway. (The Clips pick is top-14 protected).

And you don't have to sign them if they don't seem worth it after summer league, or can sign one and cut the other. Overall the option value is much higher than with a low first round pick.

That's food for thought.  I get your point- one player in the 20-30 range is less valuable than two in the 30-35 range. If you see this purely in terms of % of hitting a good player, I'm with you.

Having said this, imo there is a cost that comes in developing a player: playing time, roster spots etc, so developing two mediocre prospects might be worse than developing one.

Also, honest question, how often are early first rounder cut in the summer after the draft? On top of my head, I would think this is rare, but I could well be mistaken.

You mean second rounders?

If so, its a good question. But keep in mind that even if the guy is good-not-great we could move him for a future second rounder, in all likelihood.

And you don't have the dead money you could face with the first rounder. Witness Fab Melo and James Young who consume(d) roster spots for far longer than their talent warranted simply because their first round contracts were guaranteed.

Yep, I was thinking of second rounders.

You are right though, contracts are another thing to consider; the second round ones have a significant advantage from the team's POV.

[BitterJim]

I will say however that I don't like the 31/35 swap. That's the only move I really don't understand.

You gave up two players you probably wouldn't have been able to sign for one likely better player in the future. What's so hard there?

p much this

originally i got very excited bcs I hoped the pick had no protection, which would have made this trade a steal

with the protection it's a kind of equal value for both teams deal- two early second rounders for a future non lottery first.

we badly needed some deal, as drafting 8 players on the same night would have been a mess.

To add to that, a pick in the late teen to early twenties has value - just look at the Thaddeus Young trade.  It was pretty much accepted that Danny would have to role some picks forward, but when he did people got mad.  This sin't a hoomerun deal, but it's a win-win that could be use din the future

[Snakehead]

It's cool he can go back and edit his grades and rankings later in case anything changes.

[BitterJim]

I will say however that I don't like the 31/35 swap. That's the only move I really don't understand.

You gave up two players you probably wouldn't have been able to sign for one likely better player in the future. What's so hard there?

Because two two draws even at lower probability often pay off more often than one at a higher probability. And those probabilities from 20-ish to high 30s aren't that different anyway. (The Clips pick is top-14 protected).

And you don't have to sign them if they don't seem worth it after summer league, or can sign one and cut the other. Overall the option value is much higher than with a low first round pick.

That's food for thought.  I get your point- one player in the 20-30 range is less valuable than two in the 30-35 range. If you see this purely in terms of % of hitting a good player, I'm with you.

Having said this, imo there is a cost that comes in developing a player: playing time, roster spots etc, so developing two mediocre prospects might be worse than developing one.

Also, honest question, how often are early first rounder cut in the summer after the draft? On top of my head, I would think this is rare, but I could well be mistaken.

You mean second rounders?

If so, its a good question. But keep in mind that even if the guy is good-not-great we could move him for a future second rounder, in all likelihood.

And you don't have the dead money you could face with the first rounder. Witness Fab Melo and James Young who consume(d) roster spots for far longer than their talent warranted simply because their first round contracts were guaranteed.

Yep, I was thinking of second rounders.

You are right though, contracts are another thing to consider; the second round ones have a significant advantage from the team's POV.

Can you guys knock it off?  This is a day for kneejerk reactions, not reasonable debate! 

(TPs to you both [and now Snakehead, too])

It's cool he can go back and edit his grades and rankings later in case anything changes.

Haha, well said