Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18

[jpotter33]

I love Brown.  It's a risk, I get that.  But do a redraft 5 years from now and Brown could be the second-best player taken.  That won't be true if Hield or Murray.

I like computer models and analytics.  It's part of my profession.  But makeup is a huge part of whether or not a player busts.  Computer models can't measure drive (well, they could if you gave everyone personality tests and entered them into the model, but that's not going to happen.)

Workouts and interviews can help measure that drive and commitment.  When they're out there giving Brown pointers, how quickly does he assimilate things?  When he came in for interview one, did they give him some things to work on, with his shot for example, that they saw he'd fixed in workout 2?  When they have a film session, how well does he diagnose what he's watching?

I can't answer the questions above, but you could tell how much they liked Brown when they talked about him at the press conference announcing the extensions.  Ainge had that glow.  Compare that with Jamal Murray, whom they groused about not wanting to do everything.

Maybe Brown's shot will never improve enough to be a star.  But I'm certain that they saw enough in him to believe he'll be a rotation player next season, and that gives him a good chance to not be a bust.  Of the picks at #3, I thought Dunn was the safest, but Brown was next in line for me.  He has an NBA ready body, and I think the skills aren't far behind.  I'm also sure he has the makeup.

I hope in a few years someone comes back to this thread. Brown will not be a bust.

But isn't this part of the question with Brown - his commitment to be a great basketball player?

[MBunge]

If Stevens loves him, that should matter more than what computer projections say.

Mike

[walker834]

Espn has bust potential.  When have they ever been right?

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Pretty good article from a few days ago weighing the pros and cons of Boston drafting Jaylen Brown:  http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4723335/not-the-model-choice-would-celtics-roll-dice-with-jaylen-brown

Tons of red flags, but he had great workouts and might have a high ceiling despite the fact that "multiple computer models suggest Brown will struggle to make an impact at the next level."

That same projection model has Ben Simmons as the second highest potential. The model is broken.

Read the article.  Wasn't just one model.  It was multiple different models all that suggested he'll be a poor NBA player.  It was an article about Boston potentially drafting him in spite of several computer models advising against it.

The positive is that he's got an NBA body at age 19 and has a high work ethic.  Article suggests he could be Stanley Johnson without an ability to make shots.

Just what we need: another great defender who can't shoot.

[saltlover]

I love Brown.  It's a risk, I get that.  But do a redraft 5 years from now and Brown could be the second-best player taken.  That won't be true if Hield or Murray.

I like computer models and analytics.  It's part of my profession.  But makeup is a huge part of whether or not a player busts.  Computer models can't measure drive (well, they could if you gave everyone personality tests and entered them into the model, but that's not going to happen.)

Workouts and interviews can help measure that drive and commitment.  When they're out there giving Brown pointers, how quickly does he assimilate things?  When he came in for interview one, did they give him some things to work on, with his shot for example, that they saw he'd fixed in workout 2?  When they have a film session, how well does he diagnose what he's watching?

I can't answer the questions above, but you could tell how much they liked Brown when they talked about him at the press conference announcing the extensions.  Ainge had that glow.  Compare that with Jamal Murray, whom they groused about not wanting to do everything.

Maybe Brown's shot will never improve enough to be a star.  But I'm certain that they saw enough in him to believe he'll be a rotation player next season, and that gives him a good chance to not be a bust.  Of the picks at #3, I thought Dunn was the safest, but Brown was next in line for me.  He has an NBA ready body, and I think the skills aren't far behind.  I'm also sure he has the makeup.

I hope in a few years someone comes back to this thread. Brown will not be a bust.

But isn't this part of the question with Brown - his commitment to be a great basketball player?

It's part of the question from largely anonymous sources.  Some people question why he went to Cal, but he liked the coach, and he wanted to play with his friend who was from the Bay Area.  That's it.  I'm not a fan of Cuonzo Martin's coaching, but he's been a decent recruiter considering that he hasn't been at traditional basketball powers.

But Brown approached the draft process very seriously and aggressively.  He was one of the most physically impressive at the combine.  Unlike every other top prospect, he participated in team group workouts.  He sounded very prepared at interviews.  He approached the last three months of his life every bit the professional.  Can that predict his commitment for the next decade?  No.  But it's certainly a sign that he very much cares today about being an NBA player.

[Beat LA]

I saw a comment on CelticsLife a few days ago that said that if we draft Brown, the theme song/intro music for the season should be 'Brick House' ahaha . Priceless.

[alldaboston]

Guys who have had analytical models as poor as Brown: Austin rivers and Joe Alexander.

Get excited

[Irish Stew]

Jaylen Brown's nbadraft.net comparison is....Jimmy Butler.

Jimmy Butler also praised Brown heavily after Brown's Bulls workout, during which Brown went toe-toe with Butler one on one and more than held his own.

Butler was drafted 30th, and took 4 years to develop into a star. His production sucked the first 2 years, and was average in the 3rd year.

Basically, for everyone who wanted to trade the pick plus Bradley/Crowder and other assets for Butler, Brown can end up being just as good without having us lose other assets, and he's younger and cheaper.

Butler was VERY enthusiastic about Brown on the BS pod, and his seemingly genuine endorsement was meaningful to me, at least.

No, I no longer wanted to trade for Butler once Chicago's demands became extortionate and ridiculous. On the other hand, I don't want to wait 4 years for Brown to possibly become a star. One of the Philly Bigs seemed to me the logical way to go.

[jpotter33]

I love Brown.  It's a risk, I get that.  But do a redraft 5 years from now and Brown could be the second-best player taken.  That won't be true if Hield or Murray.

I like computer models and analytics.  It's part of my profession.  But makeup is a huge part of whether or not a player busts.  Computer models can't measure drive (well, they could if you gave everyone personality tests and entered them into the model, but that's not going to happen.)

Workouts and interviews can help measure that drive and commitment.  When they're out there giving Brown pointers, how quickly does he assimilate things?  When he came in for interview one, did they give him some things to work on, with his shot for example, that they saw he'd fixed in workout 2?  When they have a film session, how well does he diagnose what he's watching?

I can't answer the questions above, but you could tell how much they liked Brown when they talked about him at the press conference announcing the extensions.  Ainge had that glow.  Compare that with Jamal Murray, whom they groused about not wanting to do everything.

Maybe Brown's shot will never improve enough to be a star.  But I'm certain that they saw enough in him to believe he'll be a rotation player next season, and that gives him a good chance to not be a bust.  Of the picks at #3, I thought Dunn was the safest, but Brown was next in line for me.  He has an NBA ready body, and I think the skills aren't far behind.  I'm also sure he has the makeup.

I hope in a few years someone comes back to this thread. Brown will not be a bust.

But isn't this part of the question with Brown - his commitment to be a great basketball player?

It's part of the question from largely anonymous sources.  Some people question why he went to Cal, but he liked the coach, and he wanted to play with his friend who was from the Bay Area.  That's it.  I'm not a fan of Cuonzo Martin's coaching, but he's been a decent recruiter considering that he hasn't been at traditional basketball powers.

But Brown approached the draft process very seriously and aggressively.  He was one of the most physically impressive at the combine.  Unlike every other top prospect, he participated in team group workouts.  He sounded very prepared at interviews.  He approached the last three months of his life every bit the professional.  Can that predict his commitment for the next decade?  No.  But it's certainly a sign that he very much cares today about being an NBA player.

Well, hopefully it's a virtue rather than a vice for him in the NBA.

[Chris22]

Guys who have had analytical models as poor as Brown: Austin rivers and Joe Alexander.

Get excited

I am excited. Jaylen Brown is not Austin Rivers.

[kozlodoev]

Can't really tell much from his approach to the draft. We've heard the same things about KG, but also about Michael Olowokandi.

[droopdog7]

Honestly, I've seen brown a lot (as a Cal alum) and the thing that really stands out about him is his ability to get to the basket.  I mean, he's an absolute savant at getting by his man.  And I think he will be better in the pros because there is better spacing in the nba.

Take that for what it's worth but I'm excited to see what he can do.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

I have glanced through all of threads and I haven't seen anyone mention that he doesn't have an agent, he said he will handle it himself. How often does a player do that?

[saltlover]

I have glanced through all of threads and I haven't seen anyone mention that he doesn't have an agent, he said he will handle it himself. How often does a player do that?

It was mentioned a lot leading up to the draft.  It's not ever done.  While it's worked for him so far, I still don't completely recommend it.  There are times it might be nice to have someone advocate for you to management so you can just focus on basketball.  I imagine he'll pick up an agent eventually -- I'm curious to see when.

That said, the player-agent courtship routine while the player is still an amateur is one of the sketchiest things in pro sports, so in that sense, good for him in stepping past that.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

I have glanced through all of threads and I haven't seen anyone mention that he doesn't have an agent, he said he will handle it himself. How often does a player do that?

It was mentioned a lot leading up to the draft.  It's not ever done.  While it's worked for him so far, I still don't completely recommend it.  There are times it might be nice to have someone advocate for you to management so you can just focus on basketball.  I imagine he'll pick up an agent eventually -- I'm curious to see when.

That said, the player-agent courtship routine while the player is still an amateur is one of the sketchiest things in pro sports, so in that sense, good for him in stepping past that.

ok, thank you. I didn't really pay much attention to draft talk this time. Little here and there. This is nerve-wracking, I don't know how DA/staff does it.