Who has less Leverage?

[crimson_stallion]

Let's assume for a moment that the rumors are true that Boston can't trade #3 for any of their ideal targets (Middleton, Parker, Cousins, Hayward, Butler).

Let's also just assume for a moment that Kris Dunn is the pick at #3, because even if we don't get a deal done pre-draft, we can entice Philly into a trade using Dunn. 

Who has less Leverage?

Philly:  Thanks to Simmons, Philly has no major pressure to win immediately.  It's widely known they need a guard at some point. 

- They claim they will play Simmons as an unconventional PG.
- As many still point out, there's a chance Saric stays overseas, but might actually be a SF anyways.
- They have two starting bigs in Okafor/Embiid with Noel off the bench.

Celts: There's immediate pressure to improve.  They are lacking in size.

- They have two starting guards in Thomas and Bradley with Smart off the bench.
- They have three more 1st round guards they didn't have minutes for:  Rozier, Hunter, Young
-  If they draft Dunn, that's a 7th guard they likely don't have minutes for unless Smart loses a lot of minutes.
- They have 7 additional draft picks that they probably don't even have roster spots for.

Both teams are dealing with log jams in that scenario.   Philly and their 3-5 bigs.   Boston and their 7-14 guards.

It's already been reported that Celtics have the upper hand in this scenario, because 76ers desperately want Dunn.  I would agree with that.

Boston actually has very little pressure - they would like to make a trade that improves the team now, but if they can't do it then they have 8 draft picks that they can use to try to fill needs, and they have about $50M in cap space to work with once the FA market opens...and they have other potential lottery picks in 2017 and 2018.

If the reports are true then Philly is desperately trying to ditch Okafor to Boston, but Boston prefers Noel and isn't incredibly interested in either...

Reports were that Boston really liked Brown, while Dunn and Bender could have significant trade value if Boston drafts them and they impress early on. There's still the option of Hield as well, as he can likely fill a need right now (shooting / scoring) in the event Boston can't pull a Middleton / Hayward in.

I think Boston is under less pressure then almost any team right now, simply because they have so many options available and there really isn't any "bad result" here.  Worst case is that no deal happens and they draft for potential (Bender/Dunn/Brown) or need (Hield).  Three of those four guys (Dunn, Brown, Hield) could likely contribute from day one, so it's no big deal at all if that ends up the case.

Sixers on the other hand REALLY need a point guard desperately - Simmons at PG might be their solution worse case, but it's hardly optimal to depend on a 19 year old 6'10" rookie to be your starting PG.

[mctyson]

Let's assume for a moment that the rumors are true that Boston can't trade #3 for any of their ideal targets (Middleton, Parker, Cousins, Hayward, Butler).

Let's also just assume for a moment that Kris Dunn is the pick at #3, because even if we don't get a deal done pre-draft, we can entice Philly into a trade using Dunn. 

Who has less Leverage?

Philly, because they suck and have sucked for a while and in your scenario they will continue to suck for much longer.

The Celtics won almost 50 games with the roster as is.  I expect them to approximate that again next year.  Add one more solid veteran and it's even more likely.  Add a potential stud from the #3 pick and we are set.

[Celtics4ever]

I think we demand Noel, and their pick next year unprotected for #3 pick  this year, Hunter and Young.  We have the leverage.

[mctyson]

If Ainge wants to get better next year, he has to trade the 3 for Noel or Okafor. He's running out of options.

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

[LarBrd33]

If Ainge wants to get better next year, he has to trade the 3 for Noel or Okafor. He's running out of options.

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

But the options at #3 might not be very good either.

[celticsclay]

Looks like this is about 90 to 10 on philly having less leverage. Haven't really seen a question this lopsided since the ill-fated Nurkic trade poll.

[Celtics18]

If Ainge wants to get better next year, he has to trade the 3 for Noel or Okafor. He's running out of options.

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

But the options at #3 might not be very good either.

Chances are very high there will be a multiple time all star available at three. 

[mctyson]

If Ainge wants to get better next year, he has to trade the 3 for Noel or Okafor. He's running out of options.

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

But the options at #3 might not be very good either.

I would much rather draft Jaylen Brown and have his rights for 4 years on a reasonable rookie scale than trade for 1 year of Nerlens Noel before he commands $15M on the market like Bismack Biyambo

[mctyson]

If Ainge wants to get better next year, he has to trade the 3 for Noel or Okafor. He's running out of options.

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

But the options at #3 might not be very good either.

Chances are very high there will be a multiple time all star available at three.

Even if there isn't the smart play is to draft there unless you are overwhelmed with a trade. 

I don't understand why the common theme has been that the Celtics have to trade the pick, or their other picks, to convert it into a veteran all-star.  That's the concept behind them not having any leverage.  But in reality the Celtics don't have to do anything.

Would trading those picks for an all-star be the preferred route?  Of course, but that takes a willing partner on the other end.  Please tell me who that is besides Chicago.  Apparently Kris Middleton, arguably the 3rd most talented player (who makes $13M a year) on a lottery team in the Eastern Conference, is now 'untouchable.'  When you are dealing with GMs who say things like that, there is no such thing as leverage.  Because of the cap exploding upwards, teams are simply not as desperate to trade larger  contracts for financial reasons.  The only 'stars' we will find available are those that really aren't that good.

This nonsense about the Celtics somehow being trapped or in a bad spot because 'no one wants our players or picks' is just that - nonsense.  The team is projecting to be a top 3-4 team in the conference next year, they will only be better assuming no major injuries, and adding a possible future stud to the franchise is definition of having leverage.

[saltlover]

If Ainge wants to get better next year, he has to trade the 3 for Noel or Okafor. He's running out of options.

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

But the options at #3 might not be very good either.

I would much rather draft Jaylen Brown and have his rights for 4 years on a reasonable rookie scale than trade for 1 year of Nerlens Noel before he commands $15M on the market like Bismack Biyambo

If I thought Noel was only going to get $15 million, I'd be much less hesitant.

[LarBrd33]

If Ainge wants to get better next year, he has to trade the 3 for Noel or Okafor. He's running out of options.

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

But the options at #3 might not be very good either.

Chances are very high there will be a multiple time all star available at three.

Chances are very low that we pick whoever that mystery guy will be.  Okafor has star potential, though.  Which is something you can't say about any of the guys available 3rd.  Of course there could be some surprises, but this is looked at as a tier full of pretty weak options.  Hence why pretty much every pick after #2 is available in trades.

[celticsclay]

If Ainge wants to get better next year, he has to trade the 3 for Noel or Okafor. He's running out of options.

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

But the options at #3 might not be very good either.

I would much rather draft Jaylen Brown and have his rights for 4 years on a reasonable rookie scale than trade for 1 year of Nerlens Noel before he commands $15M on the market like Bismack Biyambo

If I thought Noel was only going to get $15 million, I'd be much less hesitant.

what is the max he is eligible for?

[mmmmm]

Let's assume for a moment that the rumors are true that Boston can't trade #3 for any of their ideal targets (Middleton, Parker, Cousins, Hayward, Butler).

Let's also just assume for a moment that Kris Dunn is the pick at #3, because even if we don't get a deal done pre-draft, we can entice Philly into a trade using Dunn. 

Who has less Leverage?

Philly:  Thanks to Simmons, Philly has no major pressure to win immediately.  It's widely known they need a guard at some point. 

- They claim they will play Simmons as an unconventional PG.
- As many still point out, there's a chance Saric stays overseas
- They have two starting bigs in Okafor/Embiid with Noel off the bench.

Celts: There's immediate pressure to improve.  They are lacking in size.

- They have two starting guards in Thomas and Bradley with Smart off the bench.
- They have three more 1st round guards they didn't have minutes for:  Rozier, Hunter, Young
-  If they draft Dunn, that's a 7th guard they likely don't have minutes for unless Smart loses a lot of minutes.
- They have 7 additional draft picks that they likely don't have minutes for.

Both teams are dealing with log jams in that scenario.   Philly and their 3-5 bigs.   Boston and their 7-14 guards.

I think it is pretty obvious that Philly has less leverage. Can you imagine a scenario that Philly goes into next season with Okafor, Noel and Embiid all on the roster (along with perhaps saric)?

Yeah, actually. I can.  It's not going to be successful, but it's an option.   They just let Simmons control the ball, play Saric at SF, and have a 3-man rotation of Okafor, Noel and Embiid at the bigs.  What's the worst that can happen?  They win less than 10 games?

Can you imagine a scenario where Boston heads into next season with Thomas, Bradley, Smart, Dunn, Rozier, Hunter, Young ... and our 7 other draft picks?   Are we ready to just punt on Rozier, Hunter and Young (all three of which were key 1st round pick investments) and leave them in d-league indefinitely?

You snuck in the assertion that the Celtics would take Dunn.   They don't have to.   They could trade him to someone else.   They could take Bender or Brown and let Dunn slip to PHO or MIN or whomever, who MIGHT be willing to trade him to Philly.  Maybe not.

They also could very easily stash several of their draft picks.  This year is probably one of the best draft classes ever for that because there are so many good international players.  There are legitimate international choices near every one of his draft picks.   That works heavily to Danny's advantage.

Danny is under no pressure to have to make a major deal right now.   And it's pretty clear that, while he's obviously working hard to try to create a good deal, he's been preparing for the likelihood that he won't deal the #3 for some time.   At the NBA Draft Combine, the word circulated by multiple sources was that the Celtics were shopping most of their picks but not likely to deal the #3.   Brad Stevens then came out and said they would only deal #3 for an impact player.

So there has been plenty of foreshadowing that they might not deal the #3 pick.

[Celtics4ever]

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

11 PPG  50% shooting  8 RPG 1.5 BPG and 16 PER that is an upgrade over Sully.

Okafor is a big upgrade at 17 PPG  51% shooting and 7 RPG and 1.2 BPG

I trust stats earned in the NBA more than I do stats earned in ACB.  Both of these guys might improve under CBS.   They have been played to tank not to win.

[Celtics18]

If Ainge wants to get better next year, he has to trade the 3 for Noel or Okafor. He's running out of options.

Noel is not very good.  Danny Ainge should be fired if he trades the #3 for that guy.

But the options at #3 might not be very good either.

Chances are very high there will be a multiple time all star available at three.

Chances are very low that we pick whoever that mystery guy will be.  Okafor has star potential, though.  Which is something you can't say about any of the guys available 3rd.  Of course there could be some surprises, but this is looked at as a tier full of pretty weak options.  Hence why pretty much every pick after #2 is available in trades.

There are lots of folks who see star potential in each guy in that 3 to 8 range.  History shows that chances are very high that somebody in that range will be a star.  Personally, I don't see much star potential in Okafor, although apparently others do.

I'd prefer to take my chances with the draft.  We'll see what Danny ends up doing.