Who has less Leverage?

[LarBrd33]

Let's assume for a moment that the rumors are true that Boston can't trade #3 for any of their ideal targets (Middleton, Parker, Cousins, Hayward, Butler).

Let's also just assume for a moment that Kris Dunn is the pick at #3, because even if we don't get a deal done pre-draft, we can entice Philly into a trade using Dunn. 

Who has less Leverage?

Philly:  Thanks to Simmons, Philly has no major pressure to win immediately.  It's widely known they need a guard at some point. 

- They claim they will play Simmons as an unconventional PG.
- As many still point out, there's a chance Saric stays overseas, but might actually be a SF anyways.
- They have two starting bigs in Okafor/Embiid with Noel off the bench.

Celts: There's immediate pressure to improve.  They are lacking in size.

- They have two starting guards in Thomas and Bradley with Smart off the bench.
- They have three more 1st round guards they didn't have minutes for:  Rozier, Hunter, Young
-  If they draft Dunn, that's a 7th guard they likely don't have minutes for unless Smart loses a lot of minutes.
- They have 7 additional draft picks that they probably don't even have roster spots for.

Both teams are dealing with log jams in that scenario.   Philly and their 3-5 bigs.   Boston and their 7-14 guards.

[colincb]

So you're saying Philly has the edge? CBlog will be shocked.

[jambr380]

Well, since Philly is reportedly the team really pushing for a trade, I am going to go out on a limb and say that they have less leverage than the Cs.

[Donoghus]

Philly.  Everyone knows they have to move one of their big men.  Most likely sooner rather than later.   

No one is holding a gun to Boston's head to HAVE to draft a guard.    I'm also not entirely sold that "there's immediate pressure to improve" on Boston's end.  Pressure from who?  A handfull of bloggers?

[Eja117]

Philly.

Although sometimes I feel like the buyer always has more leverage than the seller

[heyvik]

should add a poll

[LarBrd33]

So you're saying Philly has the edge? CBlog will be shocked.

I'm not saying anything.  I'm asking who you think has less leverage?

The common narrative is that Philly has no leverage.  Which is funny, because we've been hearing for months about how Boston, due to their overabundance of picks they have no room for, has no leverage.  And if they draft another guard, you're now looking at Thomas, Bradley, Smart, Rozier, Hunter, Young and Dunn all either key players or key investments that need minutes.

We need to trade a guard or 2.   Philly needs to trade a big or 2.   

[celticsclay]

Let's assume for a moment that the rumors are true that Boston can't trade #3 for any of their ideal targets (Middleton, Parker, Cousins, Hayward, Butler).

Let's also just assume for a moment that Kris Dunn is the pick at #3, because even if we don't get a deal done pre-draft, we can entice Philly into a trade using Dunn. 

Who has less Leverage?

Philly:  Thanks to Simmons, Philly has no major pressure to win immediately.  It's widely known they need a guard at some point. 

- They claim they will play Simmons as an unconventional PG.
- As many still point out, there's a chance Saric stays overseas
- They have two starting bigs in Okafor/Embiid with Noel off the bench.

Celts: There's immediate pressure to improve.  They are lacking in size.

- They have two starting guards in Thomas and Bradley with Smart off the bench.
- They have three more 1st round guards they didn't have minutes for:  Rozier, Hunter, Young
-  If they draft Dunn, that's a 7th guard they likely don't have minutes for unless Smart loses a lot of minutes.
- They have 7 additional draft picks that they likely don't have minutes for.

Both teams are dealing with log jams in that scenario.   Philly and their 3-5 bigs.   Boston and their 7-14 guards.

I think it is pretty obvious that Philly has less leverage. Can you imagine a scenario that Philly goes into next season with Okafor, Noel and Embiid all on the roster (along with perhaps saric)? Noel and Okafor have already proven they can't play together. That would be a complete disaster for their development as well as their value.

Meanwhile, it certainly is not ideal for the Celtics to draft a guard with their roster, but worst comes to worst they have a rookie coming off the bench for only spot minutes and can work on a trade throughout the season. Certainly not the end of the world and wouldn't really hurt anyone's value. Might slow the development of the rookie for a half season, but worse things have happened.

[guava_wrench]

The danger for Philly is one of their bigs losing value due to them approaching the end of their rookie deal and due to losing minutes to the others. Also, the longer players are in the league, the more teams grow concerned with their shortcomings as the hope of them developing past them decreases.

I personally feel that Philly has great flexibility since fans will be excited to see Simmons and Embiid, regardless of how many games they lose.

[LarBrd33]

Let's assume for a moment that the rumors are true that Boston can't trade #3 for any of their ideal targets (Middleton, Parker, Cousins, Hayward, Butler).

Let's also just assume for a moment that Kris Dunn is the pick at #3, because even if we don't get a deal done pre-draft, we can entice Philly into a trade using Dunn. 

Who has less Leverage?

Philly:  Thanks to Simmons, Philly has no major pressure to win immediately.  It's widely known they need a guard at some point. 

- They claim they will play Simmons as an unconventional PG.
- As many still point out, there's a chance Saric stays overseas
- They have two starting bigs in Okafor/Embiid with Noel off the bench.

Celts: There's immediate pressure to improve.  They are lacking in size.

- They have two starting guards in Thomas and Bradley with Smart off the bench.
- They have three more 1st round guards they didn't have minutes for:  Rozier, Hunter, Young
-  If they draft Dunn, that's a 7th guard they likely don't have minutes for unless Smart loses a lot of minutes.
- They have 7 additional draft picks that they likely don't have minutes for.

Both teams are dealing with log jams in that scenario.   Philly and their 3-5 bigs.   Boston and their 7-14 guards.

I think it is pretty obvious that Philly has less leverage. Can you imagine a scenario that Philly goes into next season with Okafor, Noel and Embiid all on the roster (along with perhaps saric)?

Yeah, actually. I can.  It's not going to be successful, but it's an option.   They just let Simmons control the ball, play Saric at SF, and have a 3-man rotation of Okafor, Noel and Embiid at the bigs.  What's the worst that can happen?  They win less than 10 games?

Can you imagine a scenario where Boston heads into next season with Thomas, Bradley, Smart, Dunn, Rozier, Hunter, Young ... and our 7 other draft picks?   Are we ready to just punt on Rozier, Hunter and Young (all three of which were key 1st round pick investments) and leave them in d-league indefinitely?

[BitterJim]

If other teams want Dunn, then Danny has most of the leverage.  If other teams want Okafor, then Philly has most of the leverage.

[guava_wrench]

Philly.  Everyone knows they have to move one of their big men.  Most likely sooner rather than later.   

No one is holding a gun to Boston's head to HAVE to draft a guard.    I'm also not entirely sold that "there's immediate pressure to improve" on Boston's end.  Pressure from who?  A handfull of bloggers?

So you think that a different team with less bigs trying to trade Okafor could get more value? Perhaps.

It is also possible that these guys just aren't liked enough by other teams to demand high prices. Tepid interest is tepid interest.

[LarBrd33]

If other teams want Dunn, then Danny has most of the leverage.  If other teams want Okafor, then Philly has most of the leverage.

Considering that it's widely acknowledged Okafor, warts and all, is a superior prospect to Dunn and every other prospect available at #3 - you might need to give Philly the nod with that logic.

[Evantime34]

Philly has less leverage. If Saric comes over they have 6 guys (Embiid, Noel, Okafor, Saric, Simmons, Covington) who are best at 4/5. This is in a league that is going smaller every day. A lot of teams routinely play with 1 big, 1 wing and 3 guards. Having an excess of guards is absolutely better in today's NBA than an excess of bigs.

At a time when shooting is at a premium, Embiid, Noel, Okafor and Simmons are all - shooters until proven differently.

If Boston wanted to go small Boston starting 3 guards is a lot less of disaster than Philly starting 3 bigs from the group mentioned.

That being said, I don't think Boston picks Dunn unless they already have a trade agreed to, while Philly already have committed to selecting another big.

Since Philly beat reporters are already putting out stories about how badly Philadelphia wants Dunn, and national reporters are putting out stories about Boston turning down Philly's offer for the third pick I think the leverage is clearly on the Celtics side.

[colincb]

Sixers have less leverage. They want Dunn, they want to change the culture, they want a roster that makes sense. Not sure Danny wants either of their bigs and it's pretty clear that it's the Sixers pushing for the deal.

Put the poll up.