Comparing Bender to another 2016 Draft Prospect

[DefenseWinsChamps]

In order to get a feel for Bender's true value (since people place him anywhere between top 3 to out of the top 20), I did this comparison of Bender to Labissiere. Labissiere was widely considered the second best prospect in this draft after Simmons, until Cal didn't give him playing time. Right now, most scouts think he will be picked in the late Lottery. If I can use Labissiere as a measurement, and prove that Bender is a significantly better prospect, than we would probably conclude he is one of the best prospects in this draft and worth a top 3 pick.

Here is my attempt:
-   Bender is 20 months younger than Labissiere. If he were Labissiere, he would be entering his senior year of high school.
-   Bender is at least 1 inch taller than Labissiere (and maybe even more since his last measurement was taken over a year ago and he probably still growing at 17-18 years old)
-   Bender has at least a 6 inch higher standing reach that Labissiere (and maybe more since his last measurement was taken over a year ago)
-   Bender is 10 pounds heavier than Labissiere, even though he is 20 months younger. At the same age, he would be closer to 25 pounds heavier than Labissiere
-   Bender is a better 3 point shooter than Labissiere (37% to 0%)
-   Bender is a better free throw shooter (76% to 68%)
-   Bender is a better passer in a professional league (8.4 to 3.6 AST%)
-   All of these offensive stats are in spite of the fact that Bender’s usage rate was significantly lower than Labissiere (16.6 to 22 USG%)
-   Bender is a better rebounder in a professional league (12.7 to 11.5 TRB%)
-   Bender is a better disruptor at getting steals in a professional league (2.2 to .9 ST%)
-   Labissiere is more foul prone than Bender (6.9 to 6.7 fouls per 36 minutes). Although this will be a problem for both of them in their development.
-   Bender has better perimeter skills (subjective, I know, but I think this is widely accepted)

The only areas Labissiere has on Bender are
-   Bender is worse at getting blocks in a professional league (6.2 to 10.3 BLK%)
-   Labissiere got more free throws this year (1.7 to 1.1 ft per game in 16 and 15 minute per game)
-   Labissiere had a 31’’ and 35’’ no step and regular vertical at the KENTUCKY COMBINE (noted last year for being inflated in numbers) as a 20 year old. Bender’s were only 24 and 28 as a 17 year old.
-   Bender is not as advanced as Labissierre in his post moves (subjective, but I think it’s widely accepted)

The following article shows that the SEC between 2002 and 2015 was .68 strength of schedule and the Israeli BSL was 5.2 between 2012 and 2016. In the rating of 186 leagues, the SEC placed 38th and the Israeli BSL placed 44th.

However, Bender also played 7 games in the Euroleague, which is ranked 10th with a 1.6 strength rating and 3 games in the Eurocup, which is ranked 29th with a .92 strength rating. Overall, I think the strength of competition favors Bender.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/11/06/deep-dives-measuring-level-of-competition-around-the-world/

I think you could argue that even if they were the same age, Bender would be a better prospect than Labissiere, but if you add two years to Bender’s development (which Labissiere has), then you would have a top overall talent. Bender is at least a more well-rounded, two year younger Labissiere, which is defintely worth a top three pick in this draft.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I don't think people truly understand how young Bender is. Just because a player is young doesn't mean he has talent. But then again, it is difficult to see raw talent when a player plays against high level competition. I see the raw talent. Give him several years under cbs and the raw talent will just be talent.

[loco_91]

TP. If anything this comp is just incredibly unflattering to Labissiere. Bender didn't exactly dominate the BSL, but he wasn't ineffective either. Labissiere was ineffective at a much older age against inferior competition.

I do think Lab is a better athlete than Bender, but Bender has better tools overall with his advantage in length and probably mobility.

[Boris Badenov]

TP for the hard work. Interesting comparison.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

TP. If anything this comp is just incredibly unflattering to Labissiere. Bender didn't exactly dominate the BSL, but he wasn't ineffective either. Labissiere was ineffective at a much older age against inferior competition.

I do think Lab is a better athlete than Bender, but Bender has better tools overall with his advantage in length and probably mobility.

I don't disagree. Labissiere is still young himself. I like him, but I'm worried about his toughness.

It's just that consensus has had Lab as a lottery pick all year. If Dragon Ball B is that much better in most areas, it seems like consistency would dictate that Draganborn deserves to be considered a top prospect.

I'll give you a TP later (phone won't let me) for engaging me in the conversation.

[Greenback]

Bender is going to be a huge bust.

He averaged 4.5 points and 2.6 rebounds in Israel.

He has proven nothing.

No way you pick him at number 3.

Maybe 2nd round as a draft and stash.

[ederson]

You should also consider when comparing Bender`s play time and the fact that in many case was in garbage time.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

You should also consider when comparing Bender`s play time and the fact that in many case was in garbage time.

Skal's minutes were inconsistent and sometimes garbage time against teams like the NJIT Highlanders. And his minutes went way down in the SEC schedule.

[steve]

If we wait 3 years for bender to develop we will lose our current teams momentum. He'd have to be dirk nowinski to justify that and that's impossible to tell. He's just not worth the risk.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

If we wait 3 years for bender to develop we will lose our current teams momentum. He'd have to be dirk nowinski to justify that and that's impossible to tell. He's just not worth the risk.

That's the best reason I've heard for not picking Bender.

Who would you take?

[steve]

If we wait 3 years for bender to develop we will lose our current teams momentum. He'd have to be dirk nowinski to justify that and that's impossible to tell. He's just not worth the risk.

That's the best reason I've heard for not picking Bender.

Who would you take?

I would try to trade the pick for Butler, Cousins etc. When that inevitably falls I'd take Jaylen Brown based on his mental and physical maturity. His upside is just as good as bender but his ability to contribute could be as early as next year.

[Eja117]

To be fair Kentucky crushed a top level pro French team a few years ago.

[vjcsmoke]

Great research, TP!

I believe the reason people fear the Bender pick is they fear the relatively unknown.  Which is a normal human reaction, but it's not based on rationality.

The same people who have been honking the horn on how important the youth of a prospect is proportionate to the upside are suddenly bashing on Bender despite the fact that he is the youngest star prospect in this year's draft.  I mean do you guys even realize that he is 18 this year and doesn't turn 19 until after the draft?

If that's not upside, I don't know what is.  Consider also that he is a legit 7 footer without shoes, and 7'1 in shoes, and he's only 18 as of this post.  That's crazy.  That's a legit big man there and he exhibits modern 4/5 skills that the scouts are raving about there.  Some scouts even say that he is more advanced than Porzingis at the same age.

Ok, so we didn't get the #2 pick, but at the #3 pick we can either select Bender, or hold an auction for the right to draft Bender and/or any other top 5 prospect that other teams in the NBA covet.  That's a nice place to be right now!

[DefenseWinsChamps]

If we wait 3 years for bender to develop we will lose our current teams momentum. He'd have to be dirk nowinski to justify that and that's impossible to tell. He's just not worth the risk.

That's the best reason I've heard for not picking Bender.

Who would you take?

I would try to trade the pick for Butler, Cousins etc. When that inevitably falls I'd take Jaylen Brown based on his mental and physical maturity. His upside is just as good as bender but his ability to contribute could be as early as next year.

I'm ok with trading the pick. I like Brown too.

But even if Bender takes time to develop, I like Bender better. That might tell you how high I am on him.

I wouldn't say I think he is a surefire star. In fact, I see some bust potential too. But I think he has as much upside of anyone after Simmons.

[Beat LA]

If we wait 3 years for bender to develop we will lose our current teams momentum. He'd have to be dirk nowinski to justify that and that's impossible to tell. He's just not worth the risk.

By momentum do you mean having another season of hollow wins and flaming out in the first round ala Charlie Brown and the football?