Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?

[dreamgreen]

Draft looks better and better to me maybe I'm fooling myself? But I'm excited about the pick and think we are going to get a very good player. Someone that in 2-3 years could be the best layer on the team.

[Surferdad]

As larbrd said, in my experience people have been calling this draft weak since last year. If anything it's slightly under hyped. While most of the players at the top have their limitations, most should be able to atleast stick around in the league. I think the top two are slightly (and I mean slightly) overrated, and the 3-8 range is a tid bit underrated.

Like the OP I don't follow college ball anymore, but this seems about right to me.   This seems to be a result of over-hype on 1/2.

The other key point is how this draft stacks up to 1017/1018.  DA must be thinking about this as he considers trades of this year's #3 vs. trading future BLN picks.

[saltlover]

As someone who thinks Simmons is head-and-shoulders above everyone else in this class, I am reminded of 2009.  There you had Griffin as the obvious #1.  But in the top 10, you also had some stars and superstars (Curry, Harden, DeRozan), as well as some of the biggest busts of all time (Thabeet at #2 and Jonny Flynn at #6).  Also in the top 10 were some players who have not been stars, but have been useful NBA players since 2009 -- Tyreke, Rubio, Jordan Hill, and Brandon Jennings, although injuries have limited most of them.

But then, outside the top 10, it seemed that practically every other player drafted into the mid-40s has had a good or better NBA career.  Here's the list of successes from 11 on:

Successful starters:

Gerald Henderson
Jrue Holiday
Ty Lawson
Jeff Teague
Taj Gibson
DeMarre Carroll
Patrick Beverey
Danny Green

Rotation players:
Tyler Hansbrough
Darren Collison
Omri Cassipi
Wayne Ellington
Jonas Jerebko
Jodie Meeks
Marcus Thornton
Chase Budinger

That draft provided a lot of value until Danny Green at 46.  Heck, every pick from 41 to 46 produced someone who was at least useful at some point: Meeks, Beverley, Thornton, Budinger, Nick Calathes, and Green.  That's what I'm hearing about this draft.  At the top, a superstar, and then a bunch of players with star potential, but you know some of them will completely disappoint.  Then a lot of players (30 or so) with the potential to be productive NBA players for 5-10 years, with an all-star season here or there for the most successful.

So it's an annoying draft to be #3 instead of #1, but it's a great draft to have #16, 23, 31, 35, and 45.  If Danny makes all those picks, certainly not all 5 of 16-45 would work, but it would be a bit disappointing if at least three of them weren't productive players for many years.

[footey]

I fully expect another olowakandi, Bibby, traylor, lafrentz, Jamison, white chocolate draft sequence. Then somebody with a shred of basketball acumen takes the next paul pierce because they aren't into potential, upside, youth, or fancy 7 foot 3 point shooters who can walk and chew gum.  Red will roll over in his grave if we end up with a bender.

No question. Red wouldn't touch the Euromistake with a 10-foot pole.

Right, he would insist on drafting Joe Forte over him. Red was human.

[A Future of Stevens]

I fully expect another olowakandi, Bibby, traylor, lafrentz, Jamison, white chocolate draft sequence. Then somebody with a shred of basketball acumen takes the next paul pierce because they aren't into potential, upside, youth, or fancy 7 foot 3 point shooters who can walk and chew gum.  Red will roll over in his grave if we end up with a bender.

I'm just curious who that pierce type player in this draft is?

[chilidawg]

I fully expect another olowakandi, Bibby, traylor, lafrentz, Jamison, white chocolate draft sequence. Then somebody with a shred of basketball acumen takes the next paul pierce because they aren't into potential, upside, youth, or fancy 7 foot 3 point shooters who can walk and chew gum.  Red will roll over in his grave if we end up with a bender.

I'm just curious who that pierce type player in this draft is?

That's the $64,000 question isn't it.

[boscel33]

IS anyone over-hyping it?  My perception of it was that it's a kind of weak draft with maybe 2 guys with all-star potential (Simmons and Ingram).  Nobody seems to be suggesting any of the other prospects have star potential.

I think we just are more familiar with the names, because we have a high draft pick.

I agree.  I think this draft is going to be a surprise draft with more than just the "two" stars coming out of it.

[moiso]

I'd say it's pretty mishyped.   It's a pretty deep draft with no sure things imo.  Not a ton of superstars. 

I also think it's lacking in those guys you find later that turn out to be superstars. I don't see anyone really like that this draft.  It's just a fairly solid draft.\

There isn't a whole lot worth stressing over like omg we missed that guy or whatever.

It's a deep draft though.  I think it's ranked pretty well and there are good players throughout.  We should be able to find some good players if we pick the right guys.

Nobody ever sees those guys who last to later and become superstars.  That's why they last until later.

[walker834]

I'd say it's pretty mishyped.   It's a pretty deep draft with no sure things imo.  Not a ton of superstars. 

I also think it's lacking in those guys you find later that turn out to be superstars. I don't see anyone really like that this draft.  It's just a fairly solid draft.\

There isn't a whole lot worth stressing over like omg we missed that guy or whatever.

It's a deep draft though.  I think it's ranked pretty well and there are good players throughout.  We should be able to find some good players if we pick the right guys.

Nobody ever sees those guys who last to later and become superstars.  That's why they last until later.

Sure they do. I think this draft the upside is somewhat limited. It's a weird draft that way.  Some of the later picks are just as solid as some of the earlier ones. It's pretty solid throughout.  I haven't looked at every player and could be missing someone but there are good players all the way to 10 and then from 10 on it's kind of the same.  There are players who could be very good. I'm not sure I'm seeing superstar with Taurean Prince though.  It depends on how you define superstar, but a lot of these players seem to be what they are advertised as.

If Taurean Prince is the next Michael Jordan I will be shocked and wrong.  Good player though potentially.   Chiek Diallo another nice prospect.  Good upside.  Could be very good but the next Karl Malone?  I doubt it. 

I see a lot of good players.  I think this draft in general goes from very good(top 10) to good(10-20-25) to some nice late round steals as well and very solid 2nd round value.  I don't think this draft reaches great status at any point except in it's depth. It's a great draft depthwise. there could be someone I'm missing.  I haven't looked at every player.

[colincb]

Not over-hyped. Worse than 2014 and 2015 and much better than 2013.

[CoachBo]

I fully expect another olowakandi, Bibby, traylor, lafrentz, Jamison, white chocolate draft sequence. Then somebody with a shred of basketball acumen takes the next paul pierce because they aren't into potential, upside, youth, or fancy 7 foot 3 point shooters who can walk and chew gum.  Red will roll over in his grave if we end up with a bender.

No question. Red wouldn't touch the Euromistake with a 10-foot pole.

Right, he would insist on drafting Joe Forte over him. Red was human.

Joe Forte is an improvement over a softer European Kelly Olynyk.

[Ilikesports17]

I fully expect another olowakandi, Bibby, traylor, lafrentz, Jamison, white chocolate draft sequence. Then somebody with a shred of basketball acumen takes the next paul pierce because they aren't into potential, upside, youth, or fancy 7 foot 3 point shooters who can walk and chew gum.  Red will roll over in his grave if we end up with a bender.

No question. Red wouldn't touch the Euromistake with a 10-foot pole.

Right, he would insist on drafting Joe Forte over him. Red was human.

Joe Forte is an improvement over a softer European Kelly Olynyk.

Bender is taller and longer than Olynyk and is also much faster/quicker and by all accounts, not soft. So a tall long quick not soft Kelly Olynyk is actually a pretty great player isn't he?

[walker834]

We may not opt for Bender because we have KO that's the thing I see.   We've been developing KO for a while.  He has upside himself but needs to play with a better mindset.

KO is underrated fast himself.  Bender is longer and has a wider skillset, plays with a better mentality imo.

KO can run the floor when he wants to. Unfortunately he is too busy stopping to pick the daisies too often.

[mctyson]

I'd say it's pretty mishyped.   It's a pretty deep draft with no sure things imo.  Not a ton of superstars. 

I also think it's lacking in those guys you find later that turn out to be superstars. I don't see anyone really like that this draft.  It's just a fairly solid draft.\

There isn't a whole lot worth stressing over like omg we missed that guy or whatever.

It's a deep draft though.  I think it's ranked pretty well and there are good players throughout.  We should be able to find some good players if we pick the right guys.

Nobody ever sees those guys who last to later and become superstars.  That's why they last until later.

Which is also why it is not a bad idea to trade down and pick up even another 1st.

[Bobshot]

The draft is three weeks away, and already bigs like Maker are climbing into the first round. I expect that to happen more as draft day approaches. Ainge missed out on a few bigs in last years' draft because they all went just before his pick. He won't miss again.