This whole thing where people are so confident a guard picked high will be such a great player....I'm just not as confident at all. I've seen it before. His name is Marcus Smart and every time he shoots I pray it's not an airball.
Every single flaw that exists in Marcus Smart's game today, was very clearly identified by scouts pre-draft.
Just about every scouting report raised question marks about:
1) Could he ever become develop a sound jump shot?
2) Did he have the explosiveness and ball handling to get to the basket?
3) Did he have the PG skills to excell as a proper PG, and could he shoot well enough to be a SG?
All well documented criticisms, and yet if you look at the 2014/15 draft in hindsight, it's pretty difficult to name 6 players from that draft who you could say are significantly better players right now then Smart is.
Fact is, the 14/15 draft was exceptionally top heavy, and Smart being taken #6 really wasn't a reach when you look back at that draft now. He's genuinely worthy of that draft position.
This year's draft is much, much deeper then 14/15 was. If you look at Kris Dunn, he doesn't really have any of the criticisms Smart does. There is no question about his athleticism. No question about his ball handling, passing or court vision.
The only thing anybody has raised questions about is his jumpshot, and that is being pretty nick-picky given that he shot 37% on just over three attempts per game in this past season - he clearly has potential to become a quality shooter, even if he's obviously not in Murray/Hield league in that regard.
If you look at the 2014/15 draft, the top 7 guys taken were:
- Andrew Wiggins
- Jabari Parker
- Joel Embiid
- Aaron Gordon
- Dante Exum
- Marcus Smart
- Julius Randle
The only guy on that list who had a genuinely credible jumpshot was Parker. The next best shooter was probably Wiggins (who's jumper was raised as a legit concern) followed by - sturbingly enough - probably Embiid.
Compare that to this year's draft and you have Ingram, Hield, Murray, Bender and Dunn - that's 5 of your top 7 prospects who all look like capable shooters. This draft is going to be a lot better then it's given credit for.
The top 7 or so guys in this draft (Simmons, Ingram, Murray, Hield, Dunn, Benderm, Brown) all look like guys who have a pretty solid chance at becoming All-Stars one day.
There are at least another 5 or 6 (Poeltl, Ellenson, Labissiere, Davis, Chriss, Valentine) who have an outside chance or surprising and becoming stars if the stars align.
Then you have at least a handful of other guys (Sabonis, Jones, Baldwin, Korkmaz, Luwawu, Ziubac, etc) who look like they could have long careers as quality starters.
This draft looks infinitely better then 14/15 (which was disgracefully overhyped).