Poll: If we pick at 3, who you taking and why? Brown/Bender/Hield/Dunn/Murray

[acieEarl]

I'd go with Murray. I think he's got the high chance of a can't miss. Doesn't exactly fit our needs but you have to take the best player. What I've read about this kid and what I've watched he's going to be good.

Bender, Brown, and Chriss feel like the high risk, possible high reward. Dunn didn't put up that great of number at PC and flopped in the Tournament. Hield should be good, I just think Murray will be better.

[nickagneta]

For me Brown is a no go because I just dont like the fact that he cant shoot. Avery in college could hit that 15 footer consistently and had great mechanics. When he was drafted and struggled with his shot, I knew it was just a matter of time before he became a good shooter. Brown couldnt hit that 15 footer consistently in college and his form is bad. I dont see him learning to be a good shooter and this team doesnt need another guy that cant shoot.

Dunn doesnt want to be here. He didnt send his medicals and refuses to work out for the team. We have Thomas and Rozier. Dunn would be a bad pick up that would just cause massive roster imbalance. His talent level isnt so much greater that if he is BPA that choosing someone else would be a big deal. They are all in the same tier talentwise so I would pass on him.

I dismiss Chriss out of hand because after watching him, I just dont see his talent level being on the same level as these five guys. Athleticism is there but he is missing something in his fundamentals and feel for the game that you just cant teach.

That leaves Bender, Murray and Hield.

I am good with whichever player Ainge chooses from those three

[Ilikesports17]

For me Brown is a no go because I just dont like the fact that he cant shoot. Avery in college could hit that 15 footer consistently and had great mechanics. When he was drafted and struggled with his shot, I knew it was just a matter of time before he became a good shooter. Brown couldnt hit that 15 footer consistently in college and his form is bad. I dont see him learning to be a good shooter and this team doesnt need another guy that cant shoot.

Dunn doesnt want to be here. He didnt send his medicals and refuses to work out for the team. We have Thomas and Rozier. Dunn would be a bad pick up that would just cause massive roster imbalance. His talent level isnt so much greater that if he is BPA that choosing someone else would be a big deal. They are all in the same tier talentwise so I would pass on him.

I dismiss Chriss out of hand because after watching him, I just dont see his talent level being on the same level as these five guys. Athleticism is there but he is missing something in his fundamentals and feel for the game that you just cant teach.

That leaves Bender, Murray and Hield.

I am good with whichever player Ainge chooses from those three

Thoughts on Young and Hunter?

[nebist]

For me Brown is a no go because I just dont like the fact that he cant shoot. Avery in college could hit that 15 footer consistently and had great mechanics. When he was drafted and struggled with his shot, I knew it was just a matter of time before he became a good shooter. Brown couldnt hit that 15 footer consistently in college and his form is bad. I dont see him learning to be a good shooter and this team doesnt need another guy that cant shoot.

Dunn doesnt want to be here. He didnt send his medicals and refuses to work out for the team. We have Thomas and Rozier. Dunn would be a bad pick up that would just cause massive roster imbalance. His talent level isnt so much greater that if he is BPA that choosing someone else would be a big deal. They are all in the same tier talentwise so I would pass on him.

I dismiss Chriss out of hand because after watching him, I just dont see his talent level being on the same level as these five guys. Athleticism is there but he is missing something in his fundamentals and feel for the game that you just cant teach.

That leaves Bender, Murray and Hield.

I am good with whichever player Ainge chooses from those three

I agree with a lot of this.  A couple of additions.

1) Part of me wants to like Brown.  Shooting is the easiest skill to overhaul once you get to the NBA (many examples of this...Kawhi Leonard for a recent one).  However, I also think the Celtics single biggest flaw is their inability to shoot the ball and so it would be hard for me to overlook some of the great shooters available.    I just waver on whether avoiding Brown for his shot is short-sighted.

2) Agreed that Dunn is in the same basic tier as the other players and so the roster headache isn't worth it.  However, if Bradley/Smart or, to a lesser extent, Rozier were moved in a trade, Dunn would become a serious contender for the 3rd pick.  He is the best combo of high-floor and high-upside of guys in this tier.

3) I choose Murray over Hield.  They are both fantastic at what they do with similar limitations, but Murray's production at a younger age makes him the higher upside play.  I'm a little leery of Hield falling into Fredette/Morrison territory where he just never lives up to his incredible college production.  I don't think that will happen, but those kinds of guys with the elite college numbers have fooled me in the past.

To recap: 
1) I would be most comfortable that we got an excellent player if we picked Dunn at 3, but I would only do that if we have a deal lined up to move out Bradley (my personal opinion is to keep Smart for anything short of a home run) for a better roster fit. 
2) Barring a pre-existing trade to balance the roster, currently I would pick between Murray and Bender at 3 (unless Brown shows something in workouts that completely changes the game).

[nickagneta]

For me Brown is a no go because I just dont like the fact that he cant shoot. Avery in college could hit that 15 footer consistently and had great mechanics. When he was drafted and struggled with his shot, I knew it was just a matter of time before he became a good shooter. Brown couldnt hit that 15 footer consistently in college and his form is bad. I dont see him learning to be a good shooter and this team doesnt need another guy that cant shoot.

Dunn doesnt want to be here. He didnt send his medicals and refuses to work out for the team. We have Thomas and Rozier. Dunn would be a bad pick up that would just cause massive roster imbalance. His talent level isnt so much greater that if he is BPA that choosing someone else would be a big deal. They are all in the same tier talentwise so I would pass on him.

I dismiss Chriss out of hand because after watching him, I just dont see his talent level being on the same level as these five guys. Athleticism is there but he is missing something in his fundamentals and feel for the game that you just cant teach.

That leaves Bender, Murray and Hield.

I am good with whichever player Ainge chooses from those three

Thoughts on Young and Hunter?

I dont like either's shooting form nearly as,much as I liked Bradley. And Bradley I was willing to be patient with because he was an elite defensive talent. You cant come close to saying that about Young or Hunter, both poor defendersm

[Donoghus]

I guess I'd go with Murray here.  Especially if Dunn doesn't want to be here.   

Regarding Bender, I have no real opinion on him.  I saw the Draft Express stuff and that's about it.  I also think about 95% being spouted about him on these boards is complete BS. Posters just completely talking out of their butts on both sides of the fence

Really nothing to go off there.   If Danny wants him, fine.  If not, that's fine too.

[nebist]

I wouldn't overly hold Dunn's (agents) lack of interest in Boston against him right now.  Many posters don't want him because of the lack of playing time opportunity on the roster.  Why should we hold it against him for seeing the same guard roster crunch that we do?  Now, if we selected him and he actually held out, that would be [dang]ing, but in all likelihood this is just pre-draft agent posturing.

[Rida]

I wouldn't overly hold Dunn's (agents) lack of interest in Boston against him right now.  Many posters don't want him because of the lack of playing time opportunity on the roster.  Why should we hold it against him for seeing the same guard roster crunch that we do?  Now, if we selected him and he actually held out, that would be [dang]ing, but in all likelihood this is just pre-draft agent posturing.

He wouldn't hold out, I'd say even with the abundance of Guards we don't have a pure PG.

Dunn could easily start out of the gate. Just depends of Danny and Brad like him enough to draft him at 3

[chiken Green]

My choice is Buddy Buckets.

Last year we were at the bottom of the league in 3pt %  both playoffs and Regular Season..  For the type of Offense that CBS runs this is horrible..   He could help that Right away running with the 2nd  Unit..

Does his game need help, yes - but every player does.. The thing with Buddy is we have seen his growth over the 4 years. We have seen him correct the things that he struggled with as a Freshman. There is proof that the Kid is Coach-able and his Work ethic is already being reported as world-class.

Just Listening to the Kid and you will hear very clear that he wants to be the Best, not just a good/great player.. Kids like that are special in my book. I never got that from Morrison and Fredette (and man i was a huge fan of Morrison) And I don't think the fact that Kobe has been seen around this kid should be taken lightly either.

And Last, I am a huge Marcus Smart fan, I love the dog in him, the will to compete.. He brings it on every possession.. I think the same with Buddy.. Marcus is a monster on Defense with an improving Offense, Buddy to me will a monster shooter with a competing defense.

We don't know what will happen with any of these kids but I like what Buddy is starting with.. I think it would be a mistake to pass on him just because other elite shooters have faltered in the league.

 

[Rida]

I'm flip flopping from Brown to Murray.

Just think that this team desperately needs shooting and in a crunch time lineup paired with Smart and Isaiah he would really be an amazing floor spacer and shot maker.

Brown's lack of shooting ability scares me

[Rida]

http://www.nj.com/sports/index.ssf/2016/06/nba_draft_rumors_simmons_ingram_olympics_zhou_qi.html

Interesting article about using analytics to pick the top player in the draft. Ingram at 1

The model uses box score stats (adjusted for level of competition faced and pace), scouts' rankings and player information -- such as age, height, weight and position from 2001 to 2011 -- to project out future classes. The resulting output is twofold: a player's draft grade, which is based on his total projected SPM, and his percentage chance to play at the level of an All-Star, starter, bench player and bust in his first five seasons.

Ingram ranked No. 1 in the 2016 class. Simmons? No. 4, behind Providence's Kris Dunn, Utah's Jakob Poeltl and Ingram.

[mmmmm]

http://www.nj.com/sports/index.ssf/2016/06/nba_draft_rumors_simmons_ingram_olympics_zhou_qi.html

Interesting article about using analytics to pick the top player in the draft. Ingram at 1

The model uses box score stats (adjusted for level of competition faced and pace), scouts' rankings and player information -- such as age, height, weight and position from 2001 to 2011 -- to project out future classes. The resulting output is twofold: a player's draft grade, which is based on his total projected SPM, and his percentage chance to play at the level of an All-Star, starter, bench player and bust in his first five seasons.

Ingram ranked No. 1 in the 2016 class. Simmons? No. 4, behind Providence's Kris Dunn, Utah's Jakob Poeltl and Ingram.

Two major problems with their methodology:

1) Totally ignores international data - both for international players and domestic players playing in international events.

2) The uncertainty on this are not provided, but in reality are almost certainly gigantic, due to the small-data input nature of the problem.  Thus, it is really sort of statistically ridiculous to use output of such a model for individual ranking.   I.E., the reliability of saying that the 4th ranked player projects better than the 5th ranked player is pretty much a completely useless statement.

At most, I would use this sort of model to collect players into broad tiers.

Another issue is that, while they admit that

"Like many models, a prospect’s scouts rank is by far the most important variable when predicting NBA success"

Yet the only 'scouts rank' input they have for that is Chad Ford's top 100 ranking.

[Tr1boy]

Between brown and murray

Brown is strong and explosive but i feel he has the iq of James Young.   

Murray could be a better defender.   But overall our strong team D can bail him out times (like IT gets bailed out) and his shooting will be a great addition

Wont be surprised if we can get 12-14 ppg from Murray off the bench in his first year

[Rida]

After all of the uproar on the boards about Brown its funny to revisit this poll.

Would people honestly have been happier if we drafted Bender?

[CoachBo]

Kris Dunn. I would not touch Bender with a 10-foot pole.

Then, trade Smart.

Oops.

Inconvenient truth here.