Bender insider article

[Vermont Green]

and Bender's lack of experience makes him a bigger gamble.

This is my pull-quote from the article.  This is what it all comes down to.  There is less to go on with Bender than any of the other top picks.  He is young and has hardly played.  He could be anywhere from Darko Milicic to a more athletic Pau Gasol.  If you think you know where he will fall based on his currently body of work, you are guessing or hoping.  Even scouts who have followed him around since he was 12 don't know (any more than the scouts that followed Milicic around).

If we pick Bender at #3, it is a huge gamble.

I hope we trade him for Okafor.  Okafor has his own risk but is far less of gamble and potentially the same upside (or close to the same).

[pearljammer10]

In he Insider article on Bender , they had me at "a much bigger Draymond Green"

Co-sign.

[hpantazo]

He is not that huge of a gamble as some people are worried about. I unrestand the concern from people who don't know much about him, but he is not a mystery man. As Ainge said recently , he has been a top rated international prospect for the past 4 years. That means he has been scouted and scrutinized by every pro team for the past 4 years straight. I guarantee you the Celtics staff has more than done their homework on him, and know a lot about what he is and can be.

We already know he won't be another Darko or Kwame Brown. He has at least a core set of defined skills that translate well to the NBA  , and most importantly, what sets him apart from guys like Darko, a wonderful work ethic and passion for the game.

[Evantime34]

The more I read, the more I like Bender. I tend to agree with Pelton's projections, if he says that Bender is the second best player then I want him if he's available at 3.

The rebounding is slightly concerning, but that issue can be mitigated by who you put around him. If he can knock down 3's, guard multiple positions, protect the rim and drive close outs he can help us.

[Lucky17]

In he Insider article on Bender , they had me at "a much bigger Draymond Green"

Co-sign.

I didn't like that, because much of what makes Green so special is skill set combined with his physicality. Bender's nowhere near able to mix it up and grind like Green can. He may never be.

Sets up unreasonable expectations. I wonder if calling him another Hedo Turkoglu might be fairer, if not more accurate.

[ederson]

I like the "very well scouted" argument.....

Wasn`t Adam Morisson very well scouted ?
ji yanglian ?

[Who]

I remember an older article saying that the biggest predictor of success vs flops for young guys coming over from Europe is how many minutes they play.

Guys like Gallinari and Pau Gasol who played big roles on their teams vs Tskitishvili and Darko.

That worries me greatly about Bender. He just hasn't played enough.

[loco_91]

Pelton's consensus projections are very good, better than actual draft order, much better than Chad, and far far better than random fans like everyone on this board. Advanced stats models loved Bender based on Fiba performance, but I feared that they wouldn't like his lack of usage in Tel Aviv.

It's hard to know exactly how reliable Pelton's WARP is for internationals, but it seems to have an excellent recent track record (it liked Porzi, Capela, Nurkic, and Jokic, all of whom are outperforming their draft slots).

[greenrunsdeep41]

I feel like it is safe to say, that with bender, we will be getting a similar player to KO right now. We have seen how effective our offense has been when Kelly is on. But, the more exciting part is that Bender has more defensive upside. With a league moving more and more to the perimeter, having two ball handling big guys that can attack close outs and make high IQ decisions with the ball will be a huge advantage. I think what is happening is that a lot of people are worried about rebounding and that is a valid concern. But, we have picks and opportunities to address that. I don't think Bender can really bust in our system, but I also don't think he can become a superstar. But, honestly, I don't think our team first system really caters to superstar style of play. I really think that Bender is a perfect fit. But I also think there are other players that could fit just as well. Considering all, our needs, our position in the build, and our style of play. Bender is my guy.  Which I can honestly say is a huge shift from what I felt 2/3 months ago.

[greenrunsdeep41]

Also- the dragon, the cobra, and the little guy?? Sign me up.

[Ilikesports17]

I like the "very well scouted" argument.....

Wasn`t Adam Morisson very well scouted ?
ji yanglian ?

What's your point?

Jamaal Murray and Hield will also be very well scouted. [dang] near everyone will be well scouted.

[Tr1boy]

His toothpick body is the biggest concern

[Boris Badenov]

At this point I've concluded that Hield, Murray and Bender are, in some order, the guys I'd be most excited about. Less so about Dunn or anyone else.

But like someone else hinted above, Danny's the expert, and if he picks any one of those guys it represents the evaluation of someone who's got more hoops knowledge in his little finger than everyone else on this board combined. I'll be happy and hope for the best at that stage.

[saltlover]

I remember an older article saying that the biggest predictor of success vs flops for young guys coming over from Europe is how many minutes they play.

Guys like Gallinari and Pau Gasol who played big roles on their teams vs Tskitishvili and Darko.

That worries me greatly about Bender. He just hasn't played enough.

That's fine.  But Gasol as an 18 year-old played in 2 games for a total of 10 minutes in Europe.  As a 19 year-old, he averaged 14.8 minutes in 26 games, which is comparable to Bender as an 18 year-old.  (13.7 minutes in 26 league games.)  It wasn't until he was 20 that Gasol started to get a lot of playing time.

Gallo did play a bit more as an 18 year-old.  Both Gasol and Gallo had the advantage of playing in their home country's leagues, which meant they weren't subject to any national protectionist issues, as Bender is to an extent.

If Bender stayed in Tel Aviv for two more years, I think you'd see him log a lot more minutes.  That isn't going to happen, whether or not it should, so this will be an untestable counterfactual.  But when you compare his European minutes to Gasol's, it stacks up fine.

[alldaboston]

I remember an older article saying that the biggest predictor of success vs flops for young guys coming over from Europe is how many minutes they play.

Guys like Gallinari and Pau Gasol who played big roles on their teams vs Tskitishvili and Darko.

That worries me greatly about Bender. He just hasn't played enough.

That's fine.  But Gasol as an 18 year-old played in 2 games for a total of 10 minutes in Europe.  As a 19 year-old, he averaged 14.8 minutes in 26 games, which is comparable to Bender as an 18 year-old.  (13.7 minutes in 26 league games.)  It wasn't until he was 20 that Gasol started to get a lot of playing time.

Gallo did play a bit more as an 18 year-old.  Both Gasol and Gallo had the advantage of playing in their home country's leagues, which meant they weren't subject to any national protectionist issues, as Bender is to an extent.

If Bender stayed in Tel Aviv for two more years, I think you'd see him log a lot more minutes.  That isn't going to happen, whether or not it should, so this will be an untestable counterfactual.  But when you compare his European minutes to Gasol's, it stacks up fine.

This is a good post.

I'll add on to this post by quoting what I said in another thread here:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=84609.msg2089534#msg2089534

pau gasol was 20 years old in the year 2000.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/pau-gasol-1.html#per_game::none

in the 1999-2000 season (i believe the season he was between 19 and 20 years of age) he averaged 4.2 ppg and 2.6 rpg in 14.8 minutes per game.  (close to bender's current numbers, and bender is 18)

the following season (when he was between 20 and 21 years old -> also the age that Porzingis was when he got drafted) pau averaged 11.4 ppg and 5.2 rpg in 23.9 minutes per game.