Author Topic: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft  (Read 6806 times)

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The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« on: May 19, 2016, 01:29:56 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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We all want to see Boston draft a future superstar or trade the pick for a young stud in his prime, but there might be a middle ground.  What happened the last time we had a top 5 pick in a 2 player draft?

We successfully traded the pick for an all-star... but it was a 32 year old with injuries. 

I HATED the move at the time, but trading for Ray Allen opened the door up for bigger moves.

I wrote something for CLNS Radio pondering what it would look like if we replicated the 2007 Draft:  http://clnsradio.com/boston-celtics-news/item/13788-the-boston-celtics-and-replicating-the-summer-of-2007

Unfortunately, the conclusion I came to is that Boston would end up moving the pick for a less-than-idea player like 32 year old Carmelo Anthony or 32 year old Marc Gasol.   While I fully expect either idea to be initially met with universal disgust (much like the Ray trade), I go on to explain in detail why taking a gut-punch on either of those deals might position the team where it needs to be in 2016 and 2017 free agency.

What do you guys think?   Most of the guys we want are most likely going nowhere.  Moving #3 for Melo would undoubtedly anger a lot of us, but if it paved the way for a significant free agent signing, pushed the team into the 55+ win bracket and set the stage for a big 2017 free agency, it might be worth it. 



Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2016, 01:39:09 PM »

Offline PaulP34

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Melo is useless. He's not gonna want to come to Boston. U can't build around him. Just ask Phil Jackson. No way Carmelo agrees to cremate his no trade Claus to leave NY. Its just not an option.

Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2016, 01:49:09 PM »

Offline mahcus smaht

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Ive thought about replicating the trade as well, and without reading the article to see your logic behind, I had concluded Melo today is most similar to Ray of the past.

Ray was 31 and coming off back to back 25 ppg scoring years. Now since then, the leagues top scorers have migrated down from a bunch of guys in the high twenties to more centered in the low twenties. Melo is coming off back to back seasons as a top 10 scorer scoring more than 20ppg like Ray, only one other 30+ player accomplished that (Lebron). I think AI was 30 and 31 in the Allen years.

Furthermore, both are on bad teams with foundational players in place (although I guess Durant wasnt really in place).

Lastly both are coming off injuries thus throwing some caution to the wind and lowering value a bit.

The problem is that there is no KG obviously available. Do you trade #3 for Melo then bring back Amir and Jerebko and play out the year, in hopes of bringing in KG next year?

Thats not a terrible plan. With Melo installed and a year of Smarts and Roziers development you could feasibly be a 2 or 3 seed especially with the Hawks looking down the barrel of a rebuild and Toronto potentially losing Derozan.

Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2016, 01:49:23 PM »

Offline manl_lui

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Melo is useless. He's not gonna want to come to Boston. U can't build around him. Just ask Phil Jackson. No way Carmelo agrees to cremate his no trade Claus to leave NY. Its just not an option.

I think his point was to bring in a secondary all-star to pair with IT, whether it's Melo or Gasol. Which we should have cap space to sign one more all-star in 2017, in an event we do not sign KD, etc this offseason.

Having 2 all-stars and if we can maintain some of our current core we should be an improvement over last year's team. 

Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2016, 01:54:00 PM »

Offline PaulP34

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I think if Danny fails to trade the pick for a legitimate all-star, use the pick wisley and prolong the rebuild. Its just not our luck to obtain a top 2 player coming out of the draft in a 2 player draft. So he needs to rethink his obsession of getting an all star anything through trades and focuss on making this road longer but more stable.

Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2016, 01:54:44 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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No way Carmelo agrees to cremate his no trade Claus to leave NY.

Fantastic malapropism. Fave of the day so far.
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Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2016, 02:07:31 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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There's no KG out there to come to Boston as a follow up move.
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Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2016, 02:15:31 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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I really think they'll want too much for Melo to make it a smart move for us. Plus, I don't think he'll waive his no-trade clause anyways.

Gasol I'm on the fence about.

I still think a Butler trade is the most likely to happen, especially if they're high on Dunn. I just hate that we'd ultimately be upgrading a position that we probably need to upgrade the least.

Also, if LA decides to keep their pick there still is the possibility of a Cousins trade.
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Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2016, 02:32:32 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Carmelo is coming off a season in which he averaged basically 22/8/4 with a TS% of 53.  Not sure why people don't think that would be a useful player for this team.
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Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2016, 02:35:06 PM »

Offline libermaniac

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I'd say take the pick.  The third pick that year was Al Horford.  Not a bad haul.

How bout the time before that when we had the 3rd pick in a 2 player draft ... Tim Duncan/Keith Van Horn.  #3 was Chauncey Billups.  Would've been smart to hang on to him.

Let's just take the pick and continue the slow steady build.  Try to attract solid FAs or keep the space till next year.

Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2016, 03:02:48 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Carmelo is coming off a season in which he averaged basically 22/8/4 with a TS% of 53.  Not sure why people don't think that would be a useful player for this team.
He'd immediately address one of our greatest needs (scoring).  For those that believe we need a star in place to lure quality free agents, Melo qualifies. 

I know there is "no KG to be had", but keep in mind that back in 2007 we were coming off a 24 win season.  Adding 32 year old Ray Allen to a 24 win team really upset me.  There was no guarantee we were going to be able to trade for KG.  We didn't land KG until a month later.  Other teams could have traded for him... and actually, by taking the #5 pick off the table, it seemed like we were officially out of the running.

On the flip side, this is a 48 win team that tied for 3rd in the East.  If you added Melo to a 48 win team, what happens? 

Two years ago, I compared Melo to Paul Pierce.  Here's my comments from back then:

Quote
Look, I'm not a huge Melo fan, but I see him for what he is.  He's a 30 year old all-star talent in his prime who averaged 27.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.2 steals on an efficient 45%/40%/85% shooting last season.   This idea that he's inefficient is nonsense.  He's a fairly efficient go-to scorer that you can absolutely build an offense around.  He's also known as one of the most clutch end-of-game performers in the entire league (frequently ranked towards the top in 82games sortable clutch stats).    The idea that he's a perennial loser is also equally nonsensical.  While Melo was a Freshman at Syracuse leading them to the NCAA Championship, the Nuggets were on their way to a 17 win season.  After drafting Melo, the Nuggets proceeded to make the playoffs 7 years in a row with between 43-54 wins each season (culminating with the Nuggets making the Western Conference finals in 2009).  Melo's arrival in New York saw them go from a 29 win team to three straight playoff appearances.  Think about this when you look at our own "star" player Rajon Rondo and his failure to thus-far lead a team even to a .500 record as the team's best player (we were a whopping 6-24 last season with Rondo at the helm).   Yes, Melo ultimately felt like the supporting cast in Denver wasn't enough for him to compete... which should be a story all too familiar to Celtic fans *cough* KG *cough*.   Yes, Melo finally missed the playoffs for the first time in his entire career last season for the woefully mis-managed Knicks and the media is abuzz with speculation he'll want out.  Personally, I never understood how my fellow Celtic fans could bash Carmelo Anthony without realizing the vast similarities to our hero Paul Pierce.   Want to talk about inefficient?  In 2004, Pierce shot 40%/29%/82%.  That's inefficient.  Want to talk about a "perennial loser"?  In the 9 pre-KG years Pierce played for Boston, they made the playoffs a total of 4 times... not once cracking 50 wins.  And say what you want about 'Toine, but let's note that Pierce's failure happened WITH another all-star caliber player alongside him.  In the two seasons prior to the arrival of KG the savior, we won 33 and 24 games.  Pierce was frequently labelled a malcontent.  Several fans wanted to see him traded.  The worst moment of his career likely took place in his final playoff appearance as the "best player" in Boston... where he had a flagrant offensive foul in the final seconds of a playoff game we were WINNING, had himself ejected, and responded by ripping off his jersey and swinging around his head like a classless loser:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbwm2tolAHo  ... Now look, I freakin love Paul Pierce.  I adore him.  He's my favorite player of the modern era.  I named my cat after him.  But let's be real here... how is Melo worse than pre-KG Paul Pierce? 

Melo's career numbers:  30 years old, 25.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 46%/35%/81%, 10 playoff appearances, 7x All-star, 1 WCF Appearance. 
Pierce (pre-KG) numbers:  30 years old 23.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals 44%/36%/79%, 4 playoff appearances, 5x All-star, 1 ECF Appearance.

And yeah, Melo has had two injury-plagued seasons since then and likely has lot a step, but he's still someone who can make an immediate impact.  If you add Melo to a 48 win team... and then have max cap space this Summer to go after someone like Al Horford, Derozan or even a Dwight Howard, this team (which tied for 3rd in the East) could be pretty dangerous.   We'd retain lots of additional trade assets like Marcus Smart, #16, #23, #31, #35, several other 2nd rounders, the future Brooklyn picks... and Bradley/Crowder if we want to really get fancy. 

You could pretty reasonably have a team of Thomas, Melo, Horford + whatever we trade that mondo trade package for... then next season with the cap rising to 108 million and this team presumably winning 55+ wins (even without making a follow-up trade), we'd have max cap space to target a pretty significant 2017 draft class. 

Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2016, 03:32:26 PM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 player draft...

There ended up being more than 2 players in the draft.

In addition to the top two players (Greg Oden and Kevin Durant) the draft also included Mike Conley, Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Marc Gasol.  I'm very happy with the way things turned out, but adding one of those guys to our team would have given us a building block for a contender.

The real question is, do you trust Danny and company to choose wisely?
 

   

Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2016, 03:37:54 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 player draft...

There ended up being more than 2 players in the draft.

In addition to the top two players (Greg Oden and Kevin Durant) the draft also included Mike Conley, Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Marc Gasol.
   

And just to be perfectly clear, pick 3 was Horford and pick 4 was Conley, plus our pick still had tons of trading power.

Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2016, 03:56:15 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 player draft...

There ended up being more than 2 players in the draft.

In addition to the top two players (Greg Oden and Kevin Durant) the draft also included Mike Conley, Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Marc Gasol.
   

And just to be perfectly clear, pick 3 was Horford and pick 4 was Conley, plus our pick still had tons of trading power.
I agree.  It's possible one of the guys taken after the top 2 will be special. So perhaps the best move is to not trade it at all and take the risk.

But we're in a pretty unique situation, because the cap is making leaps over the next two seasons.  So if the plan is to capitalize on an unique situation, and you buy the idea that you need stars to attract stars, it might make sense to grab one.   We'd all prefer someone like Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins, but if those guys are going nowhere, you might have to settle for a star vet.

Re: The last time we had a Top 5 pick in a 2 Player draft
« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2016, 04:30:35 PM »

Offline danglertx

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The problem isn't that there isn't a Garnett out there, because there is, Cousins.  Really Gasol could be the KG anyway.  Our problem is we don't have a Paul Pierce already on the roster while AB could be our Al Jefferson in guard form.