Why do so many of us anticipate acquiring the #4-6 pick or higher?

[Alleyoopster]

Mathematically, there is something like a 46% chance of the Celtics winning picks 1-3. And, mathematically there is a slightly greater chance of landing a 4-6 or a later pick.

However, in my mind and I’m sure in the minds of many other CBers, we feel those are not the real odds.

The real odds are more like this:

#1 pick = Less than winning the Powerball 3X in one month.
#2 pick = 2.5% (I’m not a total pessimist.)
#3 pick = 7.5%
#4 pick = 30%
#5 pick = 30%
#6 pick = 20%
#7 pick and higher = 10%

Yes, I know this is a defeatist attitude. It’s just the way I feel. Seems many of us are hoping for the best, yet expecting the worst. Of course, there are others of you who are more realistic and feel the mathematical odds will play out.

Wish this lottery would begin to end the misery.   

[Ilikesports17]

Mathematically, there is something like a 46% chance of the Celtics winning picks 1-3. And, mathematically there is a slightly greater chance of landing a 4-6 or a later pick.

However, in my mind and I’m sure in the minds of many other CBers, we feel those are not the real odds.

The real odds are more like this:

#1 pick = Less than winning the Powerball 3X in one month.
#2 pick = 2.5% (I’m not a total pessimist.)
#3 pick = 7.5%
#4 pick = 30%
#5 pick = 30%
#6 pick = 20%
#7 pick and higher = 10%

Yes, I know this is a defeatist attitude. It’s just the way I feel. Seems many of us are hoping for the best, yet expecting the worst. Of course, there are others of you who are more realistic and feel the mathematical odds will play out.

Wish this lottery would begin to end the misery.

[dang] its literally impossible for us to end up at 7 or higher haha.

[Alleyoopster]

Mathematically, there is something like a 46% chance of the Celtics winning picks 1-3. And, mathematically there is a slightly greater chance of landing a 4-6 or a later pick.

However, in my mind and I’m sure in the minds of many other CBers, we feel those are not the real odds.

The real odds are more like this:

#1 pick = Less than winning the Powerball 3X in one month.
#2 pick = 2.5% (I’m not a total pessimist.)
#3 pick = 7.5%
#4 pick = 30%
#5 pick = 30%
#6 pick = 20%
#7 pick and higher = 10%

Yes, I know this is a defeatist attitude. It’s just the way I feel. Seems many of us are hoping for the best, yet expecting the worst. Of course, there are others of you who are more realistic and feel the mathematical odds will play out.

Wish this lottery would begin to end the misery.

[dang] its literally impossible for us to end up at 7 or higher haha.

Oops...thought there was a 2% chance.

[LooseCannon]

People are pessimists because they are bad at math.

[Sketch5]

Because historically we haven't done well over all. Last time we had this close of a shot at the #1 was '07 and we ended up with the 5th pick. Yeah it ended up turning out really well in the end, but what are the chances that happens again, and we are just stuck with the pick?

[rondohondo]

Huh? pretty sure we can't drop lower than # 6

[max215]

People are pessimists because they are bad at math.

And/or conspiracy theorists.

[CelticsBR]

According to Wikipedia, the odds are:


1st    .156   
2nd  .157
3rd   .156
4th   .226
5th   .265
6th   .040      

SO yeah, at least no shots at the 7th!

[Celtics18]

I expect us to land somewhere in the top six.

[guava_wrench]

Because the Celtics are bad at random numbers. Apparently.

[hwangjini_1]

I expect us to land somewhere in the top six.

ha, ha...good one. this made me laugh, so a tp for you. 

oh, and OP, would you please define what "real odds" means? evidently it means something that doesnt conform to the rest of the world's math, so i am curious about it.

[fairweatherfan]

It's an odd position, we're most likely to get #5 but it's also close to a worst-case scenario.  We've got a nearly 50-50 shot at the top 3, but it's under 50.  It's a stressful spot to be in (subjectively).   Only Lakers and maybe Kings fans have it worse right now.

[Celtic Fan Forever]

Mathematically, there is something like a 46% chance of the Celtics winning picks 1-3. And, mathematically there is a slightly greater chance of landing a 4-6 or a later pick.

However, in my mind and I’m sure in the minds of many other CBers, we feel those are not the real odds.

The real odds are more like this:

#1 pick = Less than winning the Powerball 3X in one month.
#2 pick = 2.5% (I’m not a total pessimist.)
#3 pick = 7.5%
#4 pick = 30%
#5 pick = 30%
#6 pick = 20%
#7 pick and higher = 10%

Yes, I know this is a defeatist attitude. It’s just the way I feel. Seems many of us are hoping for the best, yet expecting the worst. Of course, there are others of you who are more realistic and feel the mathematical odds will play out.

Wish this lottery would begin to end the misery.

So my chances of winning the powerball 3 times in a month are over 15.6%??

[dang] I better buy some tickets.

[j804]

Lakers get the top pick Suns 2 and us 3rd

[LarBrd33]

Duncan is retiring, right ?

It would be fitting if right after Duncan played his last game in an illustrious career with 5 championships, the Celtics finally landed the #1 pick.