It's not crazy to say Marcus Smart will someday be better than Jimmy Butler.

[CFAN38]

I understand and appreciate the premise behind this post.

The first major hurdle I hit when projecting out Smart and how he will comp to Butler at the same age is the unavoidable 4" height difference. Granted Marcus has alot going for him to combat the fact that he is really a 6'3 1/2" wing. His length strength and general tenacity allow him to defend like a much bigger player. This playoffs we saw him become the guard version of Draymond Green. However on the offensive end his size is a liability that he may never be able to over come. This isnt to say that he will not improve as a shooter and grow into a 12-15 ppg guy but his lack of height or elite quickness/explosiveness to compensate (ala D Wade) will forever hold him back. As strong as marcus is he will always struggle is guarded by a good defender who is over 6'5. Butler at around 6'7 1/2 is simply bigger and there is a smaller group of defenders in the league who can shut him down.

At the end of the day I really like Smart and it will be tough to see him traded. I will closely follow his career in fear of what could have been if DA moves him. With that said its a similar situation to when Big Al was packaged in the KG trade at the time I really liked Al. He was a 22 year old coming off of a 16pt 11rb season and looked destine to be a perennial allstar but his game had flaws. Smart could also some day be an allstar but a flawed one. In the NBA where injuries and lottery balls change franchises over night GMs have to make tough decisions that balance long and short term goals to be effective. A Smart + high lottery pick for Butler trade is one of those choices. End of the day I make the trade in the hopes winning more right away and attracting a big FA this offseason or next.       

[TheSundanceKid]

Wishful thinking post.

There are countless NBA busts who were better than Butler in HS and College. So what? Completely irrelevant.

And, please. Never post a comparison that is purely counting stats with no discussion of efficiency whatsoever. The claim "Smart's second season was slightly better across the board" is absurd.

Here are stats from their second seasons:

FG%
Smart 35%
Butler 47%

3P%
Smart 25%
Butler 38%

And there is the difference in their second seasons. Bulter was productive on offense. Smart was a disaster.

The first two season are insignificant anyway. Butler made the jump in his fourth season.

I like Smart. He contributed a lot to our team. But it is absurd to talk about the future of player by latching on to their relative performance at some point in time compared to some other player. Each player has their own developmental curve. As of now, there is little evidence to support the idea that Smart will amount to much on offense. I think he still have good value because his defense is great and he is still young. But there have been plenty of people in his position to end up never rising past journeyman.

Well past performance often indicates future progression. The point is that Smart is likely to have a breakout season at some point in the next few years similar to Butler. A lot of people often look to the 3rd season as the breakout season, Marcus will be entering his.

There is evidence that Smart will be productive offensively. Watching the playoffs you could see him step up and take the right shots and make them. His ball handling has improved dramatically this year, I expect to see him given more responsibility next year. His shot mechanics are good, he has good lift on his jump shot, he's shown good control on his drives to the basket and makes quite a number of and one plays.

Really there is little to support that he will continue to struggle on offense

[Celtics4ever]

It"s not crazy to say that he won't be either.   Marcus has gave plenty of ammo to both sides of this argument with his uneven shooting performances.

[rollie mass]

smarts stats truly do not represent smarts shooting-rookie season merry go round and serious high ankle sprain limiting lift and first step-it bothered him tilll mid summer, then at summer league smart dislocates multiple fingers and has more down time then recovering time on court then dislocates knee and sits out till january-again not just missed time but on court recovery time--all these injuries effected his shooting and severely skewed his stats-look how badly it screwed up crowder
add to all this that kelly, jerebko and turner left marcus taking all the shots with time running down-with little scoring inside with 5 seconds left "who took the shot" in his 2016 highlites more than several going in were at buzzer-
i got really tired of the label worst three point shooter in league,bad shot selection, okay sometimes he was feelin it or trying to break out of it
with crowder out, there was immense pressure on smart defensively-harden,derozan,westbrook,george, lliard,-having to guard these guys its hard to keep offensive concentration and a soft touch
remember all the "can't get to hoop" catcalls  i think his serious high ankle sprain explained that and this year was a getting to the hoop and a learning how to finish-
i hope he skips summer league and works on his shot,handles and fine tuning his body-
whatever you stats guys say there should be an asterik for on court recovery time

[rollie mass]

i have often wondered, if smart compromised his defence and concentrated on point guard not crashing the boards and playing physical over the top of screens because this does not lend itself to playing a cold clinical shooter or a patient  playmaking guard like he was hittin amir twice
-i remember the beginning of summer league everthing about marcus had slowed down-he just no longer belonged there and his play exuded control, so can't wait to see rozier play summer league
if your defensive minded smart is allready a star, that perimeter defence is unmatched and just needs an active big -

[PhoSita]

Yeah it is.


I mean, maybe if Jimmy suffers a rapid decline and is out of the league before Marcus...

[Eja117]

I've seen Smart shoot too many airballs to buy into any of this

[KG Living Legend]

I understand and appreciate the premise behind this post.

The first major hurdle I hit when projecting out Smart and how he will comp to Butler at the same age is the unavoidable 4" height difference. Granted Marcus has alot going for him to combat the fact that he is really a 6'3 1/2" wing. His length strength and general tenacity allow him to defend like a much bigger player. This playoffs we saw him become the guard version of Draymond Green. However on the offensive end his size is a liability that he may never be able to over come. This isnt to say that he will not improve as a shooter and grow into a 12-15 ppg guy but his lack of height or elite quickness/explosiveness to compensate (ala D Wade) will forever hold him back. As strong as marcus is he will always struggle is guarded by a good defender who is over 6'5. Butler at around 6'7 1/2 is simply bigger and there is a smaller group of defenders in the league who can shut him down.

At the end of the day I really like Smart and it will be tough to see him traded. I will closely follow his career in fear of what could have been if DA moves him. With that said its a similar situation to when Big Al was packaged in the KG trade at the time I really liked Al. He was a 22 year old coming off of a 16pt 11rb season and looked destine to be a perennial allstar but his game had flaws. Smart could also some day be an allstar but a flawed one. In the NBA where injuries and lottery balls change franchises over night GMs have to make tough decisions that balance long and short term goals to be effective. A Smart + high lottery pick for Butler trade is one of those choices. End of the day I make the trade in the hopes winning more right away and attracting a big FA this offseason or next.     

 

 Smart is 6'2"

 Butler is 6'6"

 Both height's with no shoes.

[Big333223]

I basically agree with the OP's point that it's important to remember that players grow and make progress all the time and Marcus is still young enough to make lots more progress.

It's important to remember, though, that Jimmy Butler's progress is kind of an outlier in what we normally see. So thinking that Smart will be near Jimmy Butler's level, while possible, would make Smart an exception.

[Irish Stew]

I basically agree with the OP's point that it's important to remember that players grow and make progress all the time and Marcus is still young enough to make lots more progress.

It's important to remember, though, that Jimmy Butler's progress is kind of an outlier in what we normally see. So thinking that Smart will be near Jimmy Butler's level, while possible, would make Smart an exception.

TP for analysis. Smart's max upside is probably Chauncey Billups, an excellent player slightly below Butler  but with a championship resume.

[jambr380]

I basically agree with the OP's point that it's important to remember that players grow and make progress all the time and Marcus is still young enough to make lots more progress.

It's important to remember, though, that Jimmy Butler's progress is kind of an outlier in what we normally see. So thinking that Smart will be near Jimmy Butler's level, while possible, would make Smart an exception.

TP for analysis. Smart's max upside is probably Chauncey Billups, an excellent player slightly below Butler  but with a championship resume.

Both good points. It's certainly possible he reaches all-star status if his shooting ever even reaches average. He has gone through good stretches before so it's not unheard of. He was the 6th pick for a reason and I loved what he did in the playoffs. Hopefully there is more to come.

[CoachBo]

Yeah it is.


I mean, maybe if Jimmy suffers a rapid decline and is out of the league before Marcus...

TP

[pearljammer10]

It's also not crazy to say he won't.

[ThePaintedArea]

I am still waiting to hear a shred of analysis about Smarts actual skills that suggest he will be a star.  He basically is below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.  Every single one.

 I would even say his ball-handling and penetration abilities are no worse than average.

I would say that they are worse than average. But we saw progress this year, and he has the combination of instincts and strength to be highly productive getting in the paint and getting a result.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Ideally, Smart would put up the same 3rd year numbers as Butler in his 3rd year: 13ppg, 5rpg, 3apg, 2spg on 39% fg, 28% 3fg, and 77% ft. He may never make the jump Butler did into his 4th year, but I think he can continue to improve.