It's not crazy to say Marcus Smart will someday be better than Jimmy Butler.

[slightly biased bias fan]

"Jimmy Butler is a better basketball player than Marcus Smart." That is a true statement, today. Now change that statement slightly to "Jimmy Butler was a better basketball player at 22 than Marcus Smart is." That is where we run into a problem. This is the argument that SHOULD be making the rounds on talk radio when discussing a potential swap that includes these two names.

Regardless, this statement happens to be flat out wrong.

As a matter of fact, Marcus Smart has been better than Jimmy Butler at every stage of his career thus far and I am not sure there is a reason to believe the trend won’t continue. Here is a closer look:

High School

Coming out of high school Smart was a five-star prospect, a McDonalds All American, the #1 Shooting Guard and #10 overall player in the county. He had his choice of college programs ultimately choosing to attend Oklahoma State over UNC, Oklahoma and Texas. He chose Oklahoma State to play with his high school teammate Phil Forte, who only shared two common options.

Jimmy Butler was not heavily recruited out of high school and attended Tyler Junior College in Texas.

ADVANTAGE: SMART

College

Smart had an immediate impact the minute he put on a Cowboys uniform. As a freshman, he averaged 15.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 3.0 steals per game. He led the Big 12 in Steals, was 6th in scoring and 6th in assists. He joined Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley as the only players to win both Big 12 Freshman of the year and Big 12 Player of the year in the same season. He was a Second Team All American and USBWA National Freshman of the Year.

He decided to go back to school for his sophomore season to improve his play at point guard, a position he had only played for one season. At the time of his announcement, Chad Ford had him ranked as the #2 prospect on his board and he would've been a Top 10 pick.

His sophomore year he saw slight improvements in his numbers but overall it was a rollercoaster season where he earned a reputation for flopping and had an ugly incident with a fan. He became the first player in NCAA Tournament history to have 20+ Points, 10+ Rebounds, 5+ Assists and 5+ Steals in a game (23/13/7/6) in his final game.

After Butler’s year at Tyler junior college he was ranked as a two-star recruit and the 127th Junior College Recruit in the country. He attended Marquette University and in his first year he played 20 minutes a game and averaged 5.6 points and 3.9 rebounds. He averaged 15/6/2/1 over his Junior and Senior years, earning Big East Honorable Mention both seasons.

ADVANTAGE: SMART

NBA

Smart was selected 6th overall in the 2014 draft. Butler was drafted 30th overall in 2011. Here are their second year numbers:

Regular Season

Butler (23 years old) 26 minutes/8.6 points/4.0 rebounds/1.4 assists/1 steals

Smart (21 years old) 27.3 minutes/9.1 points/4.2 rebounds/3.0 assists/1.5 steals

Playoffs

Butler (23 years old) 40.8 minutes/13.3 points/5.2 rebounds/2.7 assists/1.3

Smart (21 years old) 32.2 minutes/12.0 points/4.5 rebounds/3.0 assists/1.7 steals

Smart's second season was slightly better across the board and he was 2 years younger doing it. He showed flashes of stardom in the playoffs including a transcendent defensive performance against the must larger (and red hot) Paul Millsap in Game 4 of the first round to will his team to a W.

ADVANTAGE: TO BE DETERMINED

Overall

When Butler was 21 years old he was not even a top 10 player in his college CONFERENCE. When Marcus Smart was 21 years old he was playing 27+ minutes for a 48-win Boston Celtics team. He was the ONLY player in his draft class to play a significant role on a playoff team in 2016. Butler broke out at 25 years old and after 3 full seasons in the NBA. I think Marcus Smart is going to break out at 22 years old and after 2 full seasons in the NBA.

Jimmy Butler is a great example of a player who worked his way to the player that he is today. By every account I have heard, Marcus Smart has a work ethic and competitiveness that is unmatched. He also has more talent than Jimmy Butler. He just hasn’t reached his potential yet and if you think he has, you are the crazy one. Everyone keeps saying that we need to add a star. I fully believe we already have one.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/5/6/11605720/why-is-it-crazy-to-think-marcus-smart-will-be-better-than-jimmy-butler

***By DBiscuits ***

[Fred Roberts]

Good take. I dont want to get rid of Marcus.

Also, why i dont want to give up on someone as young as Young.

[Smart457]

Who was better when they were 12? 14? 16?

I know you put a ton of effort into your post but Butler's game translates better in the pros. He's a better athlete and has length. Those are two areas that will always hold Smart back.

He may turn out to be one of the best role players in the NBA and we should be happy with that but he's not a future all star like Butler.

[mr. dee]

Who was better when they were 12? 14? 16?

I know you put a ton of effort into your post but Butler's game translates better in the pros. He's a better athlete and has length. Those are two areas that will always hold Smart back.

He may turn out to be one of the best role players in the NBA and we should be happy with that but he's not a future all star like Butler.

If you read the ancient post bumped by someone, posters are saying the same thing with Curry. Not saying Smart will be a transcendent talent like Curry became, but to completely disregard that possibility is just a complete pessimist thinking.

[droopdog7]

It's not crazy.  But it's not likely either.

90% of what you mentioned doesn't matter now.  High school?  Avery was ranked higher that both and he isn't better than Butler?  Where they were picked?  ET was picked second.  Matters not at all now.

I am still waiting to hear a shred of analysis about Smarts actual skills that suggest he will be a star.  He basically is below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.  Every single one.

[jpotter33]

It's not crazy.  But it's not likely either.

90% of what you mentioned doesn't matter now.  High school?  Avery was ranked higher that both and he isn't better than Butler?  Where they were picked?  ET was picked second.  Matters not at all now.

I am still waiting to hear a shred of analysis about Smarts actual skills that suggest he will be a star.  He basically is below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.  Every single one.

Not true. His passing, court vision, offensive rebounding, and ball control/decision-making (outside of shot selection) are all good offensive attributes that he has. I would even say his ball-handling and penetration abilities are no worse than average. The only part he's clearly below average in is shooting/shot selection/finishing at the rim, which granted are important parts. But I think it's misleading and wrong to say he's below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.

[droopdog7]

It's not crazy.  But it's not likely either.

90% of what you mentioned doesn't matter now.  High school?  Avery was ranked higher that both and he isn't better than Butler?  Where they were picked?  ET was picked second.  Matters not at all now.

I am still waiting to hear a shred of analysis about Smarts actual skills that suggest he will be a star.  He basically is below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.  Every single one.

Not true. His passing, court vision, offensive rebounding, and ball control/decision-making (outside of shot selection) are all good offensive attributes that he has. I would even say his ball-handling and penetration abilities are no worse than average. The only part he's clearly below average in is shooting/shot selection/finishing at the rim, which granted are important parts. But I think it's misleading and wrong to say he's below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.

Um, no.  He is below average in all those areas too.  Okay, I don't know whether he is an above average offensive rebounder but that is hardly something for a guard to hang his hat on.

[jpotter33]

It's not crazy.  But it's not likely either.

90% of what you mentioned doesn't matter now.  High school?  Avery was ranked higher that both and he isn't better than Butler?  Where they were picked?  ET was picked second.  Matters not at all now.

I am still waiting to hear a shred of analysis about Smarts actual skills that suggest he will be a star.  He basically is below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.  Every single one.

Not true. His passing, court vision, offensive rebounding, and ball control/decision-making (outside of shot selection) are all good offensive attributes that he has. I would even say his ball-handling and penetration abilities are no worse than average. The only part he's clearly below average in is shooting/shot selection/finishing at the rim, which granted are important parts. But I think it's misleading and wrong to say he's below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.

Um, no.  He is below average in all those areas too.  Okay, I don't know whether he is an above average offensive rebounder but that is hardly something for a guard to hang his hat on.

Um, yes. I think you confuse frequency with competency, because when he's actually had a chance to be the main ball-handler, he's looked good in those areas. Even an avowed Smart-hater like yourself has to admit that. He just never gets the opportunity to with this team due to its makeup. Some of that will be fixed with Turner walking this summer.

[alldaboston]

It's not crazy.  But it's not likely either.

90% of what you mentioned doesn't matter now.  High school?  Avery was ranked higher that both and he isn't better than Butler?  Where they were picked?  ET was picked second.  Matters not at all now.

I am still waiting to hear a shred of analysis about Smarts actual skills that suggest he will be a star.  He basically is below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.  Every single one.

Not true. His passing, court vision, offensive rebounding, and ball control/decision-making (outside of shot selection) are all good offensive attributes that he has. I would even say his ball-handling and penetration abilities are no worse than average. The only part he's clearly below average in is shooting/shot selection/finishing at the rim, which granted are important parts. But I think it's misleading and wrong to say he's below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.

Um, no.  He is below average in all those areas too.  Okay, I don't know whether he is an above average offensive rebounder but that is hardly something for a guard to hang his hat on.

Um, yes. I think you confuse frequency with competency, because when he's actually had a chance to be the main ball-handler, he's looked good in those areas. Even an avowed Smart-hater like yourself has to admit that. He just never gets the opportunity to with this team due to its makeup. Some of that will be fixed with Turner walking this summer.

Agree with this. We saw good moments of PnR with Amir and sully, and better passing than expected too.

[guava_wrench]

Wishful thinking post.

There are countless NBA busts who were better than Butler in HS and College. So what? Completely irrelevant.

And, please. Never post a comparison that is purely counting stats with no discussion of efficiency whatsoever. The claim "Smart's second season was slightly better across the board" is absurd.

Here are stats from their second seasons:

FG%
Smart 35%
Butler 47%

3P%
Smart 25%
Butler 38%

And there is the difference in their second seasons. Bulter was productive on offense. Smart was a disaster.

The first two season are insignificant anyway. Butler made the jump in his fourth season.

I like Smart. He contributed a lot to our team. But it is absurd to talk about the future of player by latching on to their relative performance at some point in time compared to some other player. Each player has their own developmental curve. As of now, there is little evidence to support the idea that Smart will amount to much on offense. I think he still have good value because his defense is great and he is still young. But there have been plenty of people in his position to end up never rising past journeyman.

[guava_wrench]

It's not crazy.  But it's not likely either.

90% of what you mentioned doesn't matter now.  High school?  Avery was ranked higher that both and he isn't better than Butler?  Where they were picked?  ET was picked second.  Matters not at all now.

I am still waiting to hear a shred of analysis about Smarts actual skills that suggest he will be a star.  He basically is below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.  Every single one.

Not true. His passing, court vision, offensive rebounding, and ball control/decision-making (outside of shot selection) are all good offensive attributes that he has. I would even say his ball-handling and penetration abilities are no worse than average. The only part he's clearly below average in is shooting/shot selection/finishing at the rim, which granted are important parts. But I think it's misleading and wrong to say he's below average in every aspect of offensive basketball.

Um, no.  He is below average in all those areas too.  Okay, I don't know whether he is an above average offensive rebounder but that is hardly something for a guard to hang his hat on.

Um, yes. I think you confuse frequency with competency, because when he's actually had a chance to be the main ball-handler, he's looked good in those areas. Even an avowed Smart-hater like yourself has to admit that. He just never gets the opportunity to with this team due to its makeup. Some of that will be fixed with Turner walking this summer.

You might have selective memory. The reason Turner gets that role is that Smart has been mediocre as main ball-handler. That doesn't mean he was a disaster like AB in that role, but there have been plenty of times in that role where Smart looked inept.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Lol! Didn't even read OP, but title in itself is special.

[makaveli]

Good take. I dont want to get rid of Marcus.

Also, why i dont want to give up on someone as young as Young.

James Young? seriously?
there are a plenty other young players not to give up one, the first in line being Rozier, Hunter and Mickey, but, Young is playing in China next year.

to reflect on the subject. great stuff from the OP, TP.
Marcus has all the physical tools, the competitiveness, the hard work, the grit, the hustle, in worst case scenario he is a good guy to gamble on.
I love Marcus, he had a tough start of the year with the injury, but if what we have seen in the playoffs translates into the next sesason, we got our selfs a keeper to say at least.

[Greyman]

I can agree with the statement in the thread title. It's not crazy, though he will need to make significant strides in a couple of areas already highlighted by others in the next few seasons. I also think the evidence used is irrelevant - it doesn't mean Smart will or won't develop in any particular way. Time will tell. I am optimistic that his drive will take him further, though I still expect AB to get better than he is now.

[Roy H.]

You lost me when you did a statistical comparison but totally left out shooting percentages. That's a pretty biased take.

I'll be rooting for Marcus. I like his personality better, despite the occasional immature decision. Butler seems like he may have an ego / spotlight problem.