Will we even make the playoffs next year?

[Moranis]

The three worst teams in the Eastern Conference were in the Atlantic Division.  That is a bunch of extra games Boston got to play against the dredge of the conference.  You would have to think those teams all aren't going to be that bad. 

Boston was also pretty darn healthy.  Crowder's 73 games was the lowest total of the top 6 players.  Smart and KO were the next two and had 61 and 69 games respectively.  Jonas is basically 9th with 78 games.  No one else really matters much to the rotation.  You would also think that that sort of health is unlikely to happen again.

Assuming basically everyone is brought back (with the addition of a rookie or two), and without looking at any other factors, I think one could reasonably expect to be 3 to 5 wins worse as a result of injuries and not playing the 3 worst teams more games than everyone else.  Of course 3 to 5 wins worse is still probably a playoff team.

[jpotter33]

The three worst teams in the Eastern Conference were in the Atlantic Division.  That is a bunch of extra games Boston got to play against the dredge of the conference.  You would have to think those teams all aren't going to be that bad. 

Boston was also pretty darn healthy.  Crowder's 73 games was the lowest total of the top 6 players.  Smart and KO were the next two and had 61 and 69 games respectively.  Jonas is basically 9th with 78 games.  No one else really matters much to the rotation.  You would also think that that sort of health is unlikely to happen again.

Assuming basically everyone is brought back (with the addition of a rookie or two), and without looking at any other factors, I think one could reasonably expect to be 3 to 5 wins worse as a result of injuries and not playing the 3 worst teams more games than everyone else.  Of course 3 to 5 wins worse is still probably a playoff team.

What gives justification to the fact that Philly or Brooklyn will be substantially better next year? I don't really see any scenario that would make them any better than the "dredge of the conference" again next year. Now you might have a point with New York, but they very well could also trade Anthony and be worse next year. So I don't see how that argument is justified, because  those three teams are still going to be pretty bad next year.

[celticsclay]

The three worst teams in the Eastern Conference were in the Atlantic Division.  That is a bunch of extra games Boston got to play against the dredge of the conference.  You would have to think those teams all aren't going to be that bad. 

Boston was also pretty darn healthy.  Crowder's 73 games was the lowest total of the top 6 players.  Smart and KO were the next two and had 61 and 69 games respectively.  Jonas is basically 9th with 78 games.  No one else really matters much to the rotation.  You would also think that that sort of health is unlikely to happen again.

Assuming basically everyone is brought back (with the addition of a rookie or two), and without looking at any other factors, I think one could reasonably expect to be 3 to 5 wins worse as a result of injuries and not playing the 3 worst teams more games than everyone else.  Of course 3 to 5 wins worse is still probably a playoff team.

Is a top 5 pick not worth a few wins? Maybe if we get Bender and he is absolutely just not ready to contribute. However, you have to figure the other options Hield, Dunn, Simmons, Ingram would be at least solid rotation players as rookies. Also dismissing any improvement from Smart, KO, Crowder, Rozier, Mickey etc as not being enough to offset some improvement from crappy teams or a few injuries seems clearly pessimistic.

[alldaboston]

This team is trending up. They have improved every year since Brad has become the coach, I don't expect that to change.

A lot of the reasoning for the C's not making the playoffs this year are the same reasons you are stating for them not making the playoffs next year. Those reasons proved wrong this year, and will still be wrong next year.

It takes a really strong will to be proven wrong then still hold the same beliefs.

This prevailing notion comes from people not being able to reconcile how well the team performed during the regular season with the players they have.

The only way the C's don't make the playoffs is if the team is completely snake bitten by injuries.

I never posed this question last year so I'm a little confused by your statement that I was proven wrong.

Last year the east didn't look too good so it was hard to see the Celtics not making the playoffs.

Maybe you didn't post this last year, but many people said the Celtics wouldn't make the playoffs because other teams in the East got better. Pretty much exactly the same reasoning you are using now. You weren't proven wrong, but you line of reasoning was.

See below.

I vaguely remember some of these exact same posts/worries after last year's playoffs, and look where we are now.

This. TP. We were worrying last summer too. Honestly, even our worrying last summer was somewhat ok because it was after most offseason stuff was done. We're still in playoff time right now.

Why not wait until after a few moves happen around the league before we attempt to predict the future?

[celticsclay]

This team is trending up. They have improved every year since Brad has become the coach, I don't expect that to change.

A lot of the reasoning for the C's not making the playoffs this year are the same reasons you are stating for them not making the playoffs next year. Those reasons proved wrong this year, and will still be wrong next year.

It takes a really strong will to be proven wrong then still hold the same beliefs.

This prevailing notion comes from people not being able to reconcile how well the team performed during the regular season with the players they have.

The only way the C's don't make the playoffs is if the team is completely snake bitten by injuries.

I never posed this question last year so I'm a little confused by your statement that I was proven wrong.

Last year the east didn't look too good so it was hard to see the Celtics not making the playoffs.

Maybe you didn't post this last year, but many people said the Celtics wouldn't make the playoffs because other teams in the East got better. Pretty much exactly the same reasoning you are using now. You weren't proven wrong, but you line of reasoning was.

See below.

I vaguely remember some of these exact same posts/worries after last year's playoffs, and look where we are now.

This. TP. We were worrying last summer too. Honestly, even our worrying last summer was somewhat ok because it was after most offseason stuff was done. We're still in playoff time right now.

Why not wait until after a few moves happen around the league before we attempt to predict the future?

Cause people are p---ed with the way the first two games went, they want to take to their keyboards and express this frustration, and for some one way they do it is by p---ing not just on the current situation, but also suggesting the future is equally screwed. It is pretty miserable.

[walker834]

I don't think DA believes in the philosophy of tanking to improve our chances long term  especially since we have the nets pick in 2018 and right to swap next year. the goal is to improve this team and win a championship each and every offseason without sacrificing the future to do that.  If DA can't do that on paper he is going to make moves to improve this team each year.

There really is no benefit in getting a higher draft pick.   Money wise it's the same Ainge is going to spend it whether its on short term deals or whatever.  He did it with Amir.

He is going to try to improve the team regardless.  If we can find moves to put us in contention he'd do it.  If he can't he's still going to try to improve.

I also dont thnk Ainge values the draft or young players as much as people think he does.  He values it but I don't think its his philosophy to tank when we have draft picks as it is. I think Ainge hates tanking and did things this way to avoid that.

[walker834]

Ainge hated the fact Red hung onto Bird, P arish and Mchale and were left with nothing because of Bias's and Reggie Lewis's death and were forced to tank.  If Ainge sees this team waffling and caught in between he is going to make moves to improve not go in the tank.  He's trying to avoid that. Why he traded Pierce and KG when he did.

[Greyman]

A number of things have gone wrong and contributed to a poor start to the playoffs. It is important to some extent that the present team at least becomes competitive in this contest. What has that got to do with the thread?

The number of things that would have to go wrong to make the Celtics a worse team next season are unfathomable. Not every other team can get better but I am certain the Celtics will. CBS will be a year wiser in the NBA and a number of promising youngsters will be more seasoned.

The question in my mind is how much better will the team be? Will it be another stage in the rebuild or will DA present close to a finished product?

[celticsclay]

A number of things have gone wrong and contributed to a poor start to the playoffs. It is important to some extent that the present team at least becomes competitive in this contest. What has that got to do with the thread?

The number of things that would have to go wrong to make the Celtics a worse team next season are unfathomable. Not every other team can get better but I am certain the Celtics will. CBS will be a year wiser in the NBA and a number of promising youngsters will be more seasoned.

The question in my mind is how much better will the team be? Will it be another stage in the rebuild or will DA present close to a finished product?

Agree with this. Youngest team in the playoffs, top 5 pick coming in and not a single bad contract. But we become a lot worse...

[max215]

I vaguely remember some of these exact same posts/worries after last year's playoffs, and look where we are now.

This.

[oldtype]

How can we even begin to guess without having seen any of the draft or free agency. For all we know LeBron could leave for LA and the Heat could trade for Carmelo.

[SHAQATTACK]

I think so.

I M betting DA offers the bank for Boogie

[hwangjini_1]

I vaguely remember some of these exact same posts/worries after last year's playoffs, and look where we are now.

Yeah.

I was one of those who thought maybe the Celts would miss the playoffs this year.

Turns out, the run they went on at the end of last year to make the playoffs was representative of what this group could do over the long term in the regular season.

At the same time, it seems like maybe their playoff performance last year was indicative of what can be expected in the playoffs, as well.


I could see the Celts missing the playoffs next year, but only if they strike out on adding some All-Star talents and decide to shake up the roster a bit with a greater emphasis on developing recent draft picks.

the team was largely injury free last year. this year they are not. i dont see the predictive comparison here.

[vjcsmoke]

Hard to see the Celtics missing the playoffs next season.  The only significant free agents we have on the roster are Sullinger, Turner, and Zeller.  It's more than likely we keep 1, get 2 premiere rookies with our draft picks, and then 1 or 2 premier free agents, depending on who's willing to join the playoff train. 

Keep in mind we've made the playoffs two seasons in a row now, and we were a top 4 seed in the east.  Free agents will see us as a team trending up.  So I only see our quality improving in the upcoming season.  A 3rd season of playoffs?  Yup, it's happening.  And if we get pick #2 and Ingram proves worthy of the #2 pick, there's no question that will increase our talent level both in the short term and long term.

Just as an example, Durant scored 20.3 ppg his rookie season.  You seriously think that cost the Thunder (back then Seattle Supersonics) some games because they 'played the rookie'?

[alldaboston]

Just as an example, Durant scored 20.3 ppg his rookie season.  You seriously think that cost the Thunder (back then Seattle Supersonics) some games because they 'played the rookie'?

Excellent point. A lot of guys here say playing a Simmons or an Ingram is gonna hurt us in the short term...how? There's a reason they're a top pick. They're gonna be NBA contributors. If anything, both of these guys serve a huge need for us. It'd only help