Only 2 paths forward this offseason

[bcgenuis]

I think this off season is the turning point.  This roster has reached its ceiling.  The two paths forward are:

1. Successful free agency and trades, or,
2. Blow it up

Let's look at each path.

Most Celtics fans would want Path 1 to work out.  Supplement the existing roster with a true superstar and more talent such as Durant, Horford, Cousins, Butler via trade or free agency.  IMO Ainge needs to go all out this off-season to achieve this.  If he fails the next option is blowing it up.

What does blowing it up mean?  To me it means moving on from players that may be fine rotation players but have reached their ceiling (Sullinger, Jerebko, Zeller).  These players are easily replaceable if need be. The team should not be allowed to wallow in mediocrity and have first round bow outs.  Time to restart the rebuild.  Are RJ Hunter, Young, Mickey ever going to amount to something? Let's find out by giving them 20-30 minutes a night.
Accumulate assets. Trade Bradley for a first rounder in a future draft or a young underused player.  Perhaps even trade Thomas for a future draft pick or two.  Sounds a little like the Philly plan but the roster as currently constructed does not have a legitimate chance at a championship or even a deep playoff run in a weak Eastern Conference.

Players that stay in a blow up scenario:

Smart
Rozier
Hunter
Mickey
Young
Olynyk
Crowder


Everyone else is tradeable.

[PhoSita]

I disagree about the blow-up scenario.

In that case, I think you keep Thomas and Crowder. 

If you get the chance to make a trade for a major star, fine, they're on the table, but in the blow-up scenario, that's off the table.  I'd look into moving anybody else on the roster to try and reconfigure the supporting cast around them to address the glaring imbalances on the roster as it now stands.

[libermaniac]

You are overreacting.  Even if they get the 5th pick, and take Murray, Hield, Prozingis, etc.. and only have modest success in FA, they are still a 50 win team with 2 more years of Nets picks and a Memphis pick after that.  No need to push any panic buttons.  They still need more talent, but getting rid of talent is not the way to go.  The Celtics will be a better team next year even in the worst case scenario, so we are looking at 50 wins minimum.

[bcgenuis]

You are overreacting.  Even if they get the 5th pick, and take Murray, Hield, Prozingis, etc.. and only have modest success in FA, they are still a 50 win team with 2 more years of Nets picks and a Memphis pick after that.  No need to push any panic buttons.  They still need more talent, but getting rid of talent is not the way to go.  The Celtics will be a better team next year even in the worst case scenario, so we are looking at 50 wins minimum.

I disagree.  First of all there is truly only one very talented player on the roster - Thomas; and a few plus glue/energy guys Bradley and Crowder. 

The remaining players are hustle players, I am not saying they are bad like #13 or #14 player on the roster but they are bench players on very successful teams.  Sure you can play it slow and hope to add talent incrementally, but when you are winning 50 games a year you are not getting top end talent in the draft.  Sure you have the BK pick but if you are not clearing out the roster whose minutes is the rookie taking?

The team more or less consists of a bunch of 4-8 guys on a championship roster and other than Thomas are missing 1-3 or go to type players (I call them plus players).  The roster currently does not have a plus player at center and wing.  There is a glut of power forwards/ undersized centers (Sullinger, Olynyk, Mickey, Jerebko, Johnson) that are replacement level.  There are a glut of undersized guards (Smart, Rozier, Thomas, Bradley). The roster lacks proven shooters and players that can create their own shot.

In other words Brad Stevens is making magic with smoke and mirrors with this roster and somehow making the sum greater than the parts.  That may work in the regular season but will not you far in the playoffs. 

[danglertx]

You don't blow anything up with us able to switch picks next year with Brooklyn.  Why would we blow it up when we are looking at swapping picks with a team who looks to be bottom five again?

[OHCeltic]

I would move on from the power forward/ center type we have and get all new.
I would draft Stone(i know not a splash pick he can score and defend down low and wont get pushed around) and Hammond bigger than Stone but can hit the 3.

[PhoSita]

You are overreacting.  Even if they get the 5th pick, and take Murray, Hield, Prozingis, etc.. and only have modest success in FA, they are still a 50 win team with 2 more years of Nets picks and a Memphis pick after that.  No need to push any panic buttons.  They still need more talent, but getting rid of talent is not the way to go.  The Celtics will be a better team next year even in the worst case scenario, so we are looking at 50 wins minimum.

Keeping the same basic group and heading into next season can't be expected to yield different results. 

The Celts will probably win 40-50 games again, maybe even more, and then they'll have to fight hard to make it out of the first round.

What's the point of that?

[passesofftodj]

You are overreacting.  Even if they get the 5th pick, and take Murray, Hield, Prozingis, etc.. and only have modest success in FA, they are still a 50 win team with 2 more years of Nets picks and a Memphis pick after that.  No need to push any panic buttons.  They still need more talent, but getting rid of talent is not the way to go.  The Celtics will be a better team next year even in the worst case scenario, so we are looking at 50 wins minimum.

I disagree.  First of all there is truly only one very talented player on the roster - Thomas; and a few plus glue/energy guys Bradley and Crowder. 

The remaining players are hustle players, I am not saying they are bad like #13 or #14 player on the roster but they are bench players on very successful teams.  Sure you can play it slow and hope to add talent incrementally, but when you are winning 50 games a year you are not getting top end talent in the draft.  Sure you have the BK pick but if you are not clearing out the roster whose minutes is the rookie taking?

The team more or less consists of a bunch of 4-8 guys on a championship roster and other than Thomas are missing 1-3 or go to type players (I call them plus players).  The roster currently does not have a plus player at center and wing.  There is a glut of power forwards/ undersized centers (Sullinger, Olynyk, Mickey, Jerebko, Johnson) that are replacement level.  There are a glut of undersized guards (Smart, Rozier, Thomas, Bradley). The roster lacks proven shooters and players that can create their own shot.

In other words Brad Stevens is making magic with smoke and mirrors with this roster and somehow making the sum greater than the parts.  That may work in the regular season but will not you far in the playoffs.

I basically agree with you (TP for saying what I say - the Celtics have 14 dudes who are 4-8 players on a contender) but I think there is a more likely middle ground than blowing it up.

If they cannot add a FA/trade 1-3 level guy I think they will get rid of a few glue guys for youth with upside.  This means keeping most of the youngish guys and adding the BK pick and a couple other rookies and letting the young talent play.

This could lead to a subtle backwards move like being the 7th or 8th seed next year.  You could then go after next year's FA crop and repeat with the high BK pick.

At some point DA is going to have to hit on a 1st AND 2nd AND 3rd option in the draft or FA or trade to beat the Warriors of the world.

Luckily there is cap room, tons of picks including several high ones, and friendly contracts to move or get high level value on the floor from (Crowder especially offers value if he finds his shot again).  The Celts are in a REALLY good position...just need some ol' green luck.

[loco_91]

This narrative drives me mad. How is this roster possibly at its "ceiling" when all of our players are injured? Why on earth would we trade Isaiah Thomas for "a future pick or two"? What is wrong with drafting some good prospects, signing a good FA or two, and winning 50-55 games next year?

Now if you said that we have to blow up the strength + conditioning staff, then I would agree with you.

[D Dub]

Everyone seems to forget that there are steps in between 'collect assets & play you' & 'be a contender'.

There are several in fact.   

Imagine the Jordan Bulls going young when faced with the adversity that Detroit brought?

Or if GSW had punted on Steff when his ankles couldn't hold up?

Or if Spurs trade Duncan because they couldn't beat Kobe & Shaq?

That's where we are now.   Promising team, with assets, a few solid starters, and a slew of picks.  That put us about 75% of the way there.   One impact player away, really.  Knowing that, why advocate going all Hinkie and setting us back to 0?

I'm not happy with our effort against the Hawks either, but let's have some perspective shall we?

[PhoSita]

D Dub, you're right that it's important not to overreact to a single playoff series, or a single stretch of games.

That said, the teams you're talking about had superstar talents ... Jordan, Curry, Duncan.

I like Isaiah Thomas.  He's shown that he's a genuine All-Star talent.  There's reason to believe he can play at that level for at least another 2-3 years.  But he's not that kind of player.


So while I agree it wouldn't make sense to completely move on from Isaiah and some of the other guys on this team, this isn't a situation where I think we can say, yeah they've got the basic ingredients for a really great team here, we just need to be patient.

[D Dub]

D Dub, you're right that it's important not to overreact to a single playoff series, or a single stretch of games.

That said, the teams you're talking about had superstar talents ... Jordan, Curry, Duncan.

I like Isaiah Thomas.  He's shown that he's a genuine All-Star talent.  There's reason to believe he can play at that level for at least another 2-3 years.  But he's not that kind of player.


So while I agree it wouldn't make sense to completely move on from Isaiah and some of the other guys on this team, this isn't a situation where I think we can say, yeah they've got the basic ingredients for a really great team here, we just need to be patient.

I'll give you MJ & Duncan.  But Curry was not really a superstar until last year.   He was a 10th pick who we had the chance to trade Rondo for and turned it down. 

The point is, when you 'blow it up', the goal is to collect assets.  We've already collected them, so why would you want to start over again?   

One legit scorer and some better shooting.    That's all we need right now. 
With our assets already collected, thats very attainable.  If we blow it up, we'd be lucky to get back to this exact same position in three years.

In my opinion, most fans wildly underrate continuity & chemistry.  The best organizations, like SA & GS, do not.  We've got several in-prime, tough players.   It's really a great foundation to build upon, in my view.   

[alldaboston]

So much overreaction on the forum these days. It's pathetic.

[LooseCannon]

What does blowing it up mean? 

Syllogisms 101

Blowing it up means trading Crowder, Thomas, and Bradley.  Trading Crowder, Thomas, and Bradley is stupid.  Therefore, blowing it up is stupid.

[dreamgreen]

Not really seeing it the same way as the OP. What pick we get is HUGE, what Danny does with the picks are the key. If we draft a bunch more rookies and they are on the team than it would seem like a youth movement is in full swing. If he trades the picks and possibly players for veteran all-star level talent than we a re going for a playoff run. It sounds to me they are going to be looking for veteran all-star talent, stay tuned!