I really doubt he would take the gamble.
I think that outside of the top 2 (which are pretty much set in stone) anything could happen in this draft. I could very easily see Hield getting selected 3rd or 4th. If Danny made the move suggested, then there is a very significant risk on him losing out on his man. 7th is long way from 3rd, and a LOT can happen in that time.
More likely he see's who is available at #3, and if anything trades down to #4 or #5. In that range he has a far higher chance of getting one of those guys.
I don't think Poieltl will go top 5, but I'm pretty sure Hield will.
That's kind of my point through if Danny is more comfortable with whoever is left out of Hield/ Poeltl/ Jaylen Brown/ Skal/ Murray than he is taking Bender or Say Hield Third than you go ahead and trade back right..
Yeah but you mentioned trading for #7, and I think that's too far down. Even if you don't like the top dog who's there at #3, I don't think I would trade down any lower than #5, otherwise he'd risk loosing the guys he is highest on.
For example, he might like Poeltyl, but he might LOVE Hield. Lets say he trades down to #5 and then Hield gets selected at #4. He's basically just screwed himself.
If the guy you really like is somebody like Brown (who probably wont go top 4) then it's probably worth gambling on a trade down to #5. But if you like Hield, the risk of him going #3 or #4 is just too high I think.
If you don't like Bender and you like another 3 or so guys all equally, then that's fine because for sure ONE of them will fall to you.
It depends on what you're getting from it too. If you have the #3 pick, you have the complete freedom to choose anyone available, so you know you are getting your #1 choice. Any trade down introduces some risk of you missing you guy. You would want to be well compensated for taking that gamble.
If you have a team that has two lottery picks (say, #5 and #10), and they are willing to trade you both picks in order to move up to #3, then that's likely worth the risk.
Unfortunately, the only team I can see right now that is in that a situation close to that is Denver, who has #7 and #15. Is #7 and #15 enough of a return to risk giving up that #3 pick? Honestly, I don't think so. There is too much rusk that your top draft choice will go somewhere in the 3-6 range, and so you most likely lose your guy by the time your pick comes art #7.
Mid first rounders are generally a high gamble, so I don't think adding one is enough incentive to trade down. In fact we already have #16 anyway, so why would you choose #7 /#15 /#16 when you could have #3 / #16? Not worth it when you are a playoff team with limited roster spots. Quality is more valuable to us than quantity.