Author Topic: My take on the top 15  (Read 5665 times)

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My take on the top 15
« on: April 17, 2016, 01:18:43 AM »

Offline walker834

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Spent a fair amount of the time the last 2 days looking at players in the top 10-15 or so. I'm sure there are players i'm still missing.   I looked at players a bit a couple months ago and think i have a more clear picture.  I honestly don't think many players fit us this draft. But here's my top 10 on how they fit and where I would rank them across the league. Sort of a particular order but not set in stone or anything.

1. Bender - I think he is the type of player I'd like to draft.  He's 18 and going to take a bit but plays off  the ball and does everything.  He's foreign which is a bit of a stretch but I still like him.  He has some bust potential but is really the only guy in this draft who can do everything on and off the ball. He isn't the iso scorer like Ingram is though, or the rebounder or finisher or Ball handler Simmons is at least not yet.  He's not as good as those guys right now but he has the potential to be better than them.  He is skinny and 18 but super fluid for that age and has a lot of quickness and finesse and toughness to his game.  He's tom brady like that way. He can also block shots.  Who knows if he has that kind of heart?  That's pretty rare and might be found elsewhere.  This draft is also has more sure things where taking a chance on an 18 year old and waiting is a gamble.    We have the nets  pick the next 2 years.  I'd hate to end up with nothing however especially with the next guy sitting there.

2. Simmons - Will be/Should be a top player in the NBA.  He's too physically gifted.  I don't know how he fits us though honestly.  He plays on the ball a lot and would definately mean bye bye to Turner.  I like Turner and think he's pretty underrated and was a top pick himself who can't shoot and has some flaws on defense.  But can rebound and run an offense and score in transition.  Simmons is obviously a superstar starting quality version of that.  Turner is a bench player. I am not sold on Simmons being that guy for us.      But Ainge and Stevens would know better than me.  MAybe they feel the same way though.  He has great length, smarts, physical tools and the ability to handle the ball and finish in so many ways and wants the ball and goes after it especially on the defensive glass and when driving the lane.  If he played off the ball he'd be even better. He plays like Lebron. He seems more Tim Duncan in personality to me but I can't tell.  If he steps up on defense and can finish off the ball, he could be really special. He's a horse.  He needs to improve his shooting.  He's more magic than bird in skillset but he plays with good focus I feel.

3. Ingram - Ingram is not kevin Durant. He is a good scorer though who can do a lot of things as far as that.  He's no bust.  He's a star. He's going to score.   Best pure scorer in the draft right now not named Buddy Hield. He's a potential all star caliber scorer.  Wiggins was getting a lot of hype like he was michael jordan and I more likened him to a poor man's Dominique.  If Wiggins is that.  Ingram is a poor man's George Gervin to Durant. He can be really good but all those guys are nba all time greats. I don't see players today necessarily on that level.  He'll be good though.  Right now he's really skinny and struggles finishing at the rim.

4. Hield - Supreme Shooter. Shoots a lot.  Not really a great distributer.  Not a great defender either.  Has all the tricks to get his shot off though and has a quick first step. He isn't steph curry.  He is a shooting guard. He does not have the ability to distribute or make decisions in the lane like curry. He can pull up or drive or get stripped that's about it.  I like our guards.  I think Bradley is not as good a shooter but doesn't shoot as much. Bradley is developing in other ways and will always be a better defender.   We could use more scoring though. 

*I'd like Hield more if he were a patient shooter. He seems like a guy you really have to build around right now and let him shoot it and I'm not sure that's what I want.  Kind of like ray early in his career where he shot the ball a lot and his teams weren't very good. Hield is a system player that way and it might take him a bit to calm down and be a team player.  Do we really want to build around Hield and change directions like that? If he comes in and is a patient shooter that's different. He definately can make shots and shoots it good. That much is known.  I love watching him come off screens and just patiently shoot daggers in teams faces.  He's ridiculous.

5. Sabonis - Quality center and prospect.  Like  a lot of big men it's going to take him a bit though.  He's intelligent. Good passer like his father.  Pretty versatile and plays with fire.  I like him but I don't know if he's the guy I want as our center for the next 10-15 years.  He's good though

6. Kris Dunn - He's a pg. I haven't watched him a ton because I don't see us drafting  another pg.  We have Isaiah, Smart and Rozier.  Kris Dunn is a great pg though by my estimation.  He is a leader. Plays with the utmost integrity.  He's the closest thing to chris paul in a while. He's not that good but he's up there.

7. Ellenson - I like his game.  He is not a guy who jumps off hte screen though. He's a borderline scrub imo but he plays with such a high motor he is fun to watch. HE can't shoot like love.  He doesn't have the athleticism of David Lee coming out but he plays like Harangody on steroids. We have Sully.  I don't see why we make this pick really. Ellenson's motor is maybe better but I'm not jumping at this.

8. Skal Labbissiere - a bit of a sleeper at this point.  I don't see much weakness to his game.  He can post up. He has a decent mid range. He plays hard and is developing.  He has great exploision on his leaps and good hands and can really block shots.  He's undervalued but undersized.  He's like a cross between Larry Sanders and Whiteside to me.  I think barring injury he will be very good. His legs are a bit skinny where he might have injury issues.  Not a passer which loses some value for me.  He's a bit overvalued that way at the same time and is not in the class of great centers.  Sabonis is the best center on this list.  Next.

9. Ivan Rabb - See Skal  but without the upside. I think they are similar but Rabb is more solid. Not as explosive. I haven't watched a ton of Rabb recently but I like him.

10. Jamal Murray.  I watched a few of his games this year and was not that impressed with him.  I think he is like Smart without the defense or leadership but a better shooter and scorer. He reminds me a bit of Jeff HOrnecek or Majerle and those Phoenix guards they used to have.  I don't see why we would draft him though. He is ranked so low because I just think he is overhyped as a pick for us. Good blend of offensive skills for a guard though.

11. Jaylen Brown - I think Jaylen Brown is a sleeper pick for us.  I really like him.  I think he will make a jason richardson type physical guard in the nba although some questions about his shooting. He can really finish and take it to the rim though but is somewhat raw. He really should be higher  on the list because I could see us taking Brown if we don't get who we really want. Brown should probably be in the top 5 ahead of dunn and Sabonis, but I put him here.

Poeltl and everyone else I really can't comment on because I haven't seen enough.  I've seen a few guys like Stone and a few others  like Thon Maker but I'm not putting them on this list yet. Brice Johnson probably deserves to be.  I'm still waiting on a few sleepers to add to my list.  I'll probably get into those once I start looking at pick 16.

MAJOR POINT ALERT************

Overall I don't see us drafting 90 percent of these guys which is good because we only have 1 pick in the top 15.  I like Bender although I could see us going Simmons as a surprise. Everyone else doesn't really fit us.  Guys like Skal could maybe replace Amir down the road but i don't see it. Our options are somewhat limited though.

I'm still leaning Bender or Simmons.  I want Bender I won't lie.  Or a guy like Brown or Ingram if we don't get who we want.  I don't see a huge difference between those two.  Guys like Sabonis, Ellenson or Skal or Rabb would be deep sleepers with our top pick.  Hield is kind of that guy I like but I don't but kind of that guy i could see us taking. I can see Ainge being enamored with Hield.

Call me crazy but I think Bender, Brown or Ellenson make the most sense.  Don't ask why.  Simmons is obviously the big choice this draft.  Rabb is a bit of a sleeper.

I also could see ainge taking a guy like Bryce johnson even if he doesn't fit projections if he really likes him.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2016, 02:54:43 AM by walker834 »

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2016, 02:39:39 AM »

Offline walker834

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I think Malik Beasley and Deyonta Davis are the only other two guys ranked in the top 15 in drafts that  I've seen.  I like them both but haven't seen enough  yet.  I don't think I'd rank these guys as options with our top pick though.  Maybe at 16.

some good players this draft

Bender - Poor man's Bird/Dirk/Tom Brady.  Better man's Kirelenko/Darko/jerebko
Simmons - Poor man's Magic/Lebron.  Better man's Odom/Evan Turner. I like him better than Lebron though.
Ingram - Poor man's Durant/Gervin/Wiggins/Mcgrady. Better man's Tashaun Prince.  Wiggins is a poor man's dominique.  Ingram could be a much less scorer than all those GREATS
Buddy Hield - Poor man's Ray Allen. Better man's Bradley Beal.
Sabonis -  Poor man's Sabonis.  Better man's Tyler Zeller
Kris Dunn - Poor man's Chris Paul.  Better man's Mike Conley.

Thing is i think most of these guys will reach close to this level.  They aren't going to be as good as these all time greats but the last few drafts have been really good.  There are going to be busts in there too.  These are all time greats I'm talking about which I don't like comparing these guys too however. They'll end up somewhere in there.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2016, 06:37:13 AM by walker834 »

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2016, 07:37:25 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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I guess my concern is, if Bender is so good why has he played so poorly in Europe? His potential is high, but what about results?


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Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2016, 09:48:08 AM »

Offline esel1000

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I guess my concern is, if Bender is so good why has he played so poorly in Europe? His potential is high, but what about results?

My biggest issue with him as well. I get that he's young but it seems like far too risky or a move to draft him in the top 5 based on what "could be" with very little to show thus far. Ford loves driving the hype train on international prospects.

I'm hoping we stay away from Bender if the pick isn't top 2. If the pick isn't top 2 (even if it is who knows) I bet it's packaged in a trade regardless. Everything that ownership and DA have hinted at, as well as the current team's makeup (bargain contracts and capspace) point to an off-season of moves for solidified stars. Could be wrong just my guess
« Last Edit: April 17, 2016, 09:54:53 AM by esel1000 »

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2016, 04:24:22 PM »

Offline walker834

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I don't disagree.  This isn't a horrible draft to gamble though.  Maybe it's just me not seeing how a lot of these guys fit us.  Usually there is a player or two that just fits.  Our team has been getting better though.  Hield is a more sure thing as far as his shooting.  Ingram can score.  Simmons i have my own concerns. I'd hate to pass on him if he is a superstar though.   Sabonis is solid.  I don't understand why we would take some of these other guys.  Good players but we have so many guards.  HIeld is kind of the enigma because he is such a special shooter.

We definately could end up with jack **** if we took bender and be watching guys like Ingram doing really well, but what if he is Dirk or Bird?  I can see some of that that's the thing.   I like his style of play although he is kind of a big head skinny body right now.

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2016, 04:40:28 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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I guess my concern is, if Bender is so good why has he played so poorly in Europe? His potential is high, but what about results?

There aren't results.

I would not touch Bender.
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Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2016, 04:43:52 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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I guess my concern is, if Bender is so good why has he played so poorly in Europe? His potential is high, but what about results?

This. I really don't see anything with him. A team might wanna pull a "smart move" or whatever, try to nab the next Porzingis. But I feel that'd fail. I really don't think Bender will amount to anything significant in the NBA. If we take him though, id love to be wrong.
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Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2016, 04:43:55 PM »

Offline walker834

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Stevens could do wonders with Simmons. Turner and Isaiah work on this team. Isaiah is a scorer and a prettty good distributer. Simmons would be the primary distributer. Both guys can really take it to the rim.  Isaiah and Simmons are similar that way though although Simmons can dunk. Isaiah not so much.  It's still kind of a weird fit to me though.

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2016, 04:46:05 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Overall I think it's a pretty poor draft talent wise. I think years from now this draft could be seen as one of the poorer ones of the past 20 years. Even the top two players have major red flags and after those players the flaws in each talent tier of players thereafter is pretty significant.

I say just trade away this draft for established players/stars. We already have four players on this roster with massive question marks we are trying to develop while being a playoff bound team. We don't need any more.

I will say if we get the first pick, I think you have to take the risk on Simmons. Other than that, trade the picks.

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2016, 04:55:42 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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While I'd take Ingram first - I don't like the passive way Simmons plays, reminds me of Olynyk: His refusal to play aggressively cost LSU games this season. True stars don't defer to anyone - I largely agree. We don't need any more rookies.

It is time to trade the picks.
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Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2016, 05:07:29 PM »

Offline walker834

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Trade it all for Cousins or Love or Durant?  Same questions though in ways. I wish we could find a star we all like.  They don't seem to exist.  Durant is probably the closest thing to Bird today but even he is not on that level as far as a blend of passing, rebounding, scoring etc..

That's the knock on guys like Durant and Westbrook is they are primarily me first type players. B ird was a me first player but he also averaged ridiculous assist numbers. Knew when to pass and when to score.

Magic was the ultimate catalyst. 

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2016, 05:14:09 PM »

Offline walker834

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I still like Bender for whatever reason.  I see the bust potential.  Ingram I think is primarly a scorer and he's still developing himself.  Simmons I like too.  I'm looking at next years draft as well. josh jackson, etc..  I think this draft is actually more star filled. The last few drafts have been pretty big i feel where it would be nice if Ainge found someone.

Even if Bender isn't a superstar and ends up like Drazen Petrovic it's not a bad thing for this team.  He wouldn't disrupt chemistry and would add something in a lot of different areas.

I like Kevin Love too for that reason.  He might not be bird but he's going to do enough in different areas and not hurt you where I'm ok with it.

Durant and Boogie are really good though.

Bender might bust but he's my sleeper star in the top 5 which isn't really a sleeper but if he does pan out we might regret it too.  I've watched him quite a bit the last two days and there's something i really like about his game.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2016, 05:28:51 PM by walker834 »

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #12 on: April 17, 2016, 05:43:19 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
I like Kevin Love too for that reason.  He might not be bird but he's going to do enough in different areas and not hurt you where I'm ok with it.


 Not sure his team mates feel that way.

Quote
Even if Bender isn't a superstar and ends up like Drazen Petrovic it's not a bad thing for this team.  He wouldn't disrupt chemistry and would add something in a lot of different areas.

Drazen dominated Europe prior to coming over here, Dragan has not shown much more than he is tall, weak and can run.   I would wager in his wildest dreams he will not come close to Petrovic in terms of ability.

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2016, 05:48:46 PM »

Offline walker834

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Just posted this in the other thread this is dragan at 16 years old. He said himself he has a lot of weaknesses and just has to get better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qurn1LIowK0

Plus Kucoc is his favorite player.  He looks like roger federer but still liking him.

Even that yell at the end of the video is tom bradyish though.  He likes to assist as well.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2016, 08:29:18 PM by walker834 »

Re: My take on the top 15
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2016, 08:27:24 PM »

Offline walker834

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3:20 of that video gets me though.  Blocked shot to himself immediately looks up the floor and fires a tom brady rocket for the easy bucket.

That is how you assist your teammates. Not just pass the ball.  I think Simmons in ways passes the ball but doesn't necessarily assist.

Simmons definately has more ability to take over the game rebounding and with the dribble though taking it to the hoop with his athletic ability and speed.

Different players in how they do it.  Simmons plays a lot like a bigger John Wall in ways the more I watch him.  I love John wall too. 

I just think they are different.  Impressed with both.

I think Bender and Simmons have the most upside as far as superstar talent.  Ingram is primarily a scorer.  Hield is a shooter.  All are  young.

Bender is a bit more of an unknown over Simmons. 
« Last Edit: April 17, 2016, 08:42:11 PM by walker834 »