Author Topic: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.  (Read 22308 times)

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Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #75 on: April 18, 2016, 02:38:15 PM »

Offline walker834

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joel embiid was a can't miss, Danny's got to take him  prospect just 2 years ago.

I actuallly like Simmons. I liked Embiid too though until he became that.

I feel like Simmons is different than Embiid though. People thought i was nuts for liking Marcus Smart.

I more question Simmons for different reasons but still like him.

Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #76 on: April 18, 2016, 03:16:00 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I firmly believe the League has no interest in making the Celtics better---they sell out every game anyway--and have won tons of rings---so don't expect any help on lottery night---5th pick for sure...Lakers will get No. 1.... Phoenix No. 2....Minny No. 3....Philly No. 4
I firmly believe the opposite. 

#1 - The draft isn't fixed.  So there's that.

#2 - One could argue that in 2008 the league had a rooting interest in a Lakers/Celtics finals.  What transpired that season was a perfect storm leading to big-time dollars. 

Celtics have a top 5 fan base nationally in terms of size.  It's one of the premiere franchises in the league.  The league would very pleased to have a Celtic team playing deep into the playoffs.

I don't know, man. I generally try to stay away from conspiracy theories, but the Cavs winning the lottery two years in a row - the second time from the ninth position - setting it up perfectly for Lebron to come back and form a superteam in Cleveland is a little too much coincidence for me.
Jpotter, anytime someone says they are open to the conspiracy theory of the lotto being rigged, I have to ask if they have seen any of the behind-the-scenes videos.

2013 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKI-fToATpQ

2014 - http://www.nba.com/video/channels/draft/2014/05/20/052014-draft-lottery-behind-the-scenes.nba/

2015 - http://www.nba.com/video/channels/draft/2015/05/19/2015-draft-lottery-drawing.nba/

Just curious if you watched all of those, read about the process, and still think there's a chance it's fixed.   The only way it's fixed is if every team (which all have their own bottom-lines and could see their franchise value sky rocket if they land a star) is willingly part of it, and the media that are let into the room every year go along with it as well.

I'd say it's extremely unlikely unless you're willing to essentially say the entire sport is fixed.  And once you're willing to make that leap, it's just a tiny baby-step towards believing the NBA gifted the Celtics KG and gifted the Lakers Pau, then rigged the entire playoffs so the two teams would clash in the Finals back in 2008.  Either go all-in on the conspiracy theories or accept that they aren't very plausible.

All I'm saying is it Can be rigged---because they assign teams sequential combinations (not random)--and they SWITCH the balls-after the test drawing...If the league wanted to rig it--all they have to do is have one or two balls weigh more--in the Secured Box they bring in....Not probable---but Possible....Teams would have no idea what's going on--so of course they're not involved...if they got rid of the Sequential order of assigned numbers--nobody could rig it.
I'm just curious... if they had one or two balls weigh more so that they'd always come up right away, wouldn't that make every single drawing come up with the same results?  They'd just sit there for hours as the first two numbers popped up over and over again and the same team won the lotto, right?

Doesn't seem practical.

NOT saying the league could determine who Wins---but they could determine who DOESN'T Win (perceived tanking,etc)----The balls get blown UPWARDS---so weighted balls (with the correct air pressure in the machine)...might not get drawn---(example,2007--ALL Celtics number combinations had either #1 or #2 in them)---Why weren't the combinations Random-?-and not like the way they are---kinda fishy why they Switch the balls (from this supposed secured locked box)---but maybe there's nothing to it....If there was any way possible that the lottery is rigged---THIS is how they do it (but it's probably not rigged)

The balls get blown upwards ... but they don't have to go up very far to get 'selected'. The selector is the cross section of the selection tube extending down to just a few inches above the bottom of the chamber.  Air blows up from the very bottom directly at that tube and every ball that rolls to be bottom has a chance of going up and into that tube, so long as it can be blow up as high as the tube entrance.   Arguably, a heavier ball might 'nudge out' other balls in rolling back down to the bottom center and so get more shots at being lifted into the tube.    So it might have the opposite effect than what you want.

If you wanted to 'cheat' to keep a ball from going into the tube you would probably do better to instead do something to make them not fly straight, such as asymmetrically weighting them or scuffing them on one side.  That would make the ball tend to veer away from straight up when it hits the air jet and thus more likely to miss the tube (which is in the center).  The problem with this is that anybody who is inclined to think that cheating is going on could analyze the motion of the balls in these videos and confirm if any of them are heavier, lighter or asymmetrically treated based on their motion.   Given the high stakes involved, I would be shocked if this could be gotten away with since the videos exist and are public.

Making a ball slightly too large would prevent selection but would run the risk of getting stuck in the tube -- pretty apparent folks would scream bloody murder.

Keep in mind also that a team isn't being selected based on any one particular ball, but rather a sequence of ball numbers, and every team has a set of ball number sequences that they can match, so you could only really skew against a particular team if you knew that they had number sequences that had a much heavier weight of one or two ball numbers than any other team.

Basically, the lottery process seems convoluted, but it's actually structured to make it very non-deterministic to 'cheat' it.
It's amazing to me that people would actually believe this.

The Patrick Ewing draft is one thing.  But this new process seems pretty straight-forward to me.  There would have to be a ton of parties in on it, including independent firms who inspect the balls.   

It's not fixed.  If it had been fixed, Boston would have won the Duncan draft and Boston would have won the Oden/Durant draft and Boston would have won the Wiggins/Parker draft.   The idea that the league wants to keep one of their cornerstone franchises down in what has proven to be one of the two marquee sports cities in America for other sports (NFL and MLB, for instance) just seems a bit asinine.  Having a top NBA team playing in Boston is a good thing for everyone. 

I never understood the premise of "the league doesn't want the Celtics to succeed".  It makes no sense.

Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #77 on: April 18, 2016, 03:56:31 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I find it weird how folks on these sorts of boards get 'dug in' on positions such as some of the negative criticisms of not only Simmons, but also of Ingram, Bender, Brown, Heild, Murray & Dunn.

Some posters are relentless in reaching for negatives, seemingly pulled out of nowhere (really, really old scouting reports or videos from a year or more ago, quibbling over length & weight measures taken for 17 & 18 year old kids, third-and-fourth party gossip about 'intangibles, etc., etc.).   It makes you think that they would absolutely hate the idea of that player being on the Celtics.

Ultimately, who we get may not be a matter of choice.

If Danny gets the #2 pick, he's almost certainly going to take whomever of Simmons/Ingram is not taken.

It just seems strange to me to get all dug in and assertively negative about any of these players when the truth is, most on the board won't have a fraction of the information that Danny should have with which to make an informed choice.

I'm just glad we are certain to get a top 6 pick (and most likely a top 4).  I can see the positive potential in all the possible outcomes of that and I hope that those positives are realized.

I've noticed something slightly different. I see a ton of over-hyping of prospects, and I've seen a natural backlash to that. How can an objective fan not bristle a bit when a 19 year old with some glaring flaws is being compared to Magic and Oscar?

I doubt any of us would pass on Simmons at #2, but that's separate and apart from thinking he'll be a top-10 player of all-time.

Also, the only quibbling over measurements I remember is when a poster condescending tried to use LSU's biased measurements to shut down Jonathan Givony. When people bring snark and arrogance, I think it's fair to "quibble" about accuracy.

"Bristle"?  Are Magic and Oscar's legacies at stake because someone is trying to use them as a model for how a young player's game might fit in the NBA?

Saying that Kelly Olynyk plays a similar basketball role (7 foot stretch shooting big who can handle and pass the ball) to Dirk isn't asserting he will ever, ever be as good as Dirk.   What's to get offended about?

It might be more constructive to offer a different comp.

Why is it "natural" to backlash against some fan's hyperbolic optimistic view of some player?  Why is it necessary to dig oneself in with negative hyperbole and in some cases intangible character aspersions about a young player in response to the hyperbole spewed by some random fan?

I also know you are talking about me with the remark regarding LSU's measurements of Simmons versus the Hoop Summit numbers which you prefer to cite, but no one has answered to my question about why LSU's measurements, taken 6 months ago are necessarily less credible than measurements taken over a year ago, for a young player who has clearly been growing during the last two years.   If he gets measured at this coming pre-draft combine, it's very likely neither set of numbers from before will be repeated exactly.

I have a great deal of respect for Givony's work, but he's been plenty wrong about players before, and in many things he is as reliant as any on third-hand measurements, hearsay and data.  Your argument seems to slip towards an appeal to authority.

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Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #78 on: April 18, 2016, 04:49:22 PM »

Online Roy H.

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I find it weird how folks on these sorts of boards get 'dug in' on positions such as some of the negative criticisms of not only Simmons, but also of Ingram, Bender, Brown, Heild, Murray & Dunn.

Some posters are relentless in reaching for negatives, seemingly pulled out of nowhere (really, really old scouting reports or videos from a year or more ago, quibbling over length & weight measures taken for 17 & 18 year old kids, third-and-fourth party gossip about 'intangibles, etc., etc.).   It makes you think that they would absolutely hate the idea of that player being on the Celtics.

Ultimately, who we get may not be a matter of choice.

If Danny gets the #2 pick, he's almost certainly going to take whomever of Simmons/Ingram is not taken.

It just seems strange to me to get all dug in and assertively negative about any of these players when the truth is, most on the board won't have a fraction of the information that Danny should have with which to make an informed choice.

I'm just glad we are certain to get a top 6 pick (and most likely a top 4).  I can see the positive potential in all the possible outcomes of that and I hope that those positives are realized.

I've noticed something slightly different. I see a ton of over-hyping of prospects, and I've seen a natural backlash to that. How can an objective fan not bristle a bit when a 19 year old with some glaring flaws is being compared to Magic and Oscar?

I doubt any of us would pass on Simmons at #2, but that's separate and apart from thinking he'll be a top-10 player of all-time.

Also, the only quibbling over measurements I remember is when a poster condescending tried to use LSU's biased measurements to shut down Jonathan Givony. When people bring snark and arrogance, I think it's fair to "quibble" about accuracy.

"Bristle"?  Are Magic and Oscar's legacies at stake because someone is trying to use them as a model for how a young player's game might fit in the NBA?

My least favorite of internet arguments:  the strawman, pumped up on hyperbolic PEDs.

Nobody said Magic and Oscar's legacies were at stake.  It seems odd that you'd jump to that conclusion.  Some of us are just wary of comparing a 19 year old who missed the Tournament to two of the top-10 players of all-time.  This being an internet discussion forum, off-base comparisons seem worthy of debate.

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Saying that Kelly Olynyk plays a similar basketball role (7 foot stretch shooting big who can handle and pass the ball) to Dirk isn't asserting he will ever, ever be as good as Dirk.   What's to get offended about?

More strawmen.  Simmons was called a "6'10" Oscar Robertson" and a "slightly lesser" Magic.  Those are direct comparisons about how those posters saw Simmons projecting, not saying that guys have a similar style.  Also, of course, any comparison of KO to Dirk is lazy and does a disservice to Kelly, since it makes him look like an abject failure by comparison.

And, nobody said they were offended.  They just pointed out that others were being hyperbolic.  It's possible to have a discussion where two sides disagree without falling back on the faux outrage that so many hold near and dear.

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Why is it "natural" to backlash against some fan's hyperbolic optimistic view of some player?  Why is it necessary to dig oneself in with negative hyperbole and in some cases intangible character aspersions about a young player in response to the hyperbole spewed by some random fan?

When somebody wildly overestimates somebody, it's a natural to move the discussion toward more realistic expectations.   I'm not sure that I've seen much negative hyperbole about Simmons.  What's hyperbolic about the criticism?  He's a poor outside shooter.  He missed the Tournament.  Experts have questioned whether he plays to hang stats.  Those may be unwarranted criticisms -- or they may be legit -- but they're certainly not hyperbolic.

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I also know you are talking about me with the remark regarding LSU's measurements of Simmons versus the Hoop Summit numbers which you prefer to cite, but no one has answered to my question about why LSU's measurements, taken 6 months ago are necessarily less credible than measurements taken over a year ago, for a young player who has clearly been growing during the last two years.   If he gets measured at this coming pre-draft combine, it's very likely neither set of numbers from before will be repeated exactly.

The Hoops Summit numbers are well-regarded and standardized.  Historically, they have matched up with the other combine measurements, within some level of deviation to account for future growth.

The LSU numbers, on the other hand, suggest that Simmons added several inches to his standing reach within a matter of months, which would be a biological miracle.  They also suggest that Simmons ran the fastest 3/4 court sprint in the history of recorded combine measurements.  LSU's measurements of its others players wildly deviated in several instances from other more respected measurements, always to the advantage of the LSU player. 

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I have a great deal of respect for Givony's work, but he's been plenty wrong about players before, and in many things he is as reliant as any on third-hand measurements, hearsay and data.  Your argument seems to slip towards an appeal to authority.

Since most of us don't have $100k+ scouting budgets, don't see more than a handful of prospects in person (if that),  and are often reliant upon youtube video, I think an appeal to expert authority is a good place to start.  Just about every realm of society relies upon experts.  I'm not sure why citing one for his opinion of a draft prospect is a bad thing, especially somebody who puts in the leg work and has the talent evaluating chops that Givony does. 

He's not right 100% of the time, but if he sees red flags, they're at least worth talking about.


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Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #79 on: April 18, 2016, 05:00:07 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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An argument can and will be made that whoever we end up drafting, regardless if it's Simmons, will end up being the best player in the draft.  So we have that to look forward to. 

Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #80 on: April 18, 2016, 07:48:20 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I find it weird how folks on these sorts of boards get 'dug in' on positions such as some of the negative criticisms of not only Simmons, but also of Ingram, Bender, Brown, Heild, Murray & Dunn.

Some posters are relentless in reaching for negatives, seemingly pulled out of nowhere (really, really old scouting reports or videos from a year or more ago, quibbling over length & weight measures taken for 17 & 18 year old kids, third-and-fourth party gossip about 'intangibles, etc., etc.).   It makes you think that they would absolutely hate the idea of that player being on the Celtics.

Ultimately, who we get may not be a matter of choice.

If Danny gets the #2 pick, he's almost certainly going to take whomever of Simmons/Ingram is not taken.

It just seems strange to me to get all dug in and assertively negative about any of these players when the truth is, most on the board won't have a fraction of the information that Danny should have with which to make an informed choice.

I'm just glad we are certain to get a top 6 pick (and most likely a top 4).  I can see the positive potential in all the possible outcomes of that and I hope that those positives are realized.

I've noticed something slightly different. I see a ton of over-hyping of prospects, and I've seen a natural backlash to that. How can an objective fan not bristle a bit when a 19 year old with some glaring flaws is being compared to Magic and Oscar?

I doubt any of us would pass on Simmons at #2, but that's separate and apart from thinking he'll be a top-10 player of all-time.

Also, the only quibbling over measurements I remember is when a poster condescending tried to use LSU's biased measurements to shut down Jonathan Givony. When people bring snark and arrogance, I think it's fair to "quibble" about accuracy.

"Bristle"?  Are Magic and Oscar's legacies at stake because someone is trying to use them as a model for how a young player's game might fit in the NBA?

My least favorite of internet arguments:  the strawman, pumped up on hyperbolic PEDs.
Technically, not a straw man, since put in the form of rhetorical question, but I'll concede.  A straw man to beg the question, "What is there to bristle about?".
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Nobody said Magic and Oscar's legacies were at stake.  It seems odd that you'd jump to that conclusion.  Some of us are just wary of comparing a 19 year old who missed the Tournament to two of the top-10 players of all-time.  This being an internet discussion forum, off-base comparisons seem worthy of debate.

Quote
Saying that Kelly Olynyk plays a similar basketball role (7 foot stretch shooting big who can handle and pass the ball) to Dirk isn't asserting he will ever, ever be as good as Dirk.   What's to get offended about?

More strawmen.  Simmons was called a "6'10" Oscar Robertson" and a "slightly lesser" Magic.  Those are direct comparisons about how those posters saw Simmons projecting, not saying that guys have a similar style.  Also, of course, any comparison of KO to Dirk is lazy and does a disservice to Kelly, since it makes him look like an abject failure by comparison.
Actually, no.  KG Living Legend's exact words were:  "Imagine what he could do with a 6'10" Oscar Robertson type of talent".   And crimson_stallion's words were, "...a 6'10" big man who can run, pass and dribble like Simmons can... I doubt Simmons will ever be as good as Magic, but I think he could become a slightly less dominant version of Magic."

Those seem pretty clearly to be about style.   Neither seems to be claiming Simmons will definitely be as good as either Hall of Famer.

What about that is supposed to make us bristle?
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And, nobody said they were offended.  They just pointed out that others were being hyperbolic.  It's possible to have a discussion where two sides disagree without falling back on the faux outrage that so many hold near and dear.

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What exactly do you mean by "bristle", then?  Why is that not "faux outrage"?
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Why is it "natural" to backlash against some fan's hyperbolic optimistic view of some player?  Why is it necessary to dig oneself in with negative hyperbole and in some cases intangible character aspersions about a young player in response to the hyperbole spewed by some random fan?

When somebody wildly overestimates somebody, it's a natural to move the discussion toward more realistic expectations.   I'm not sure that I've seen much negative hyperbole about Simmons.  What's hyperbolic about the criticism?  He's a poor outside shooter.  He missed the Tournament.  Experts have questioned whether he plays to hang stats.  Those may be unwarranted criticisms -- or they may be legit -- but they're certainly not hyperbolic.

You have apparently missed reading assertions about Simmons or Brown having "zero ability to shoot", or Ingram or Bender being too skinny, soft and weak.

Correct, accusing a player of playing to hang stats would not be hyperbolic.  That would fall into the category of character aspersion.

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I also know you are talking about me with the remark regarding LSU's measurements of Simmons versus the Hoop Summit numbers which you prefer to cite, but no one has answered to my question about why LSU's measurements, taken 6 months ago are necessarily less credible than measurements taken over a year ago, for a young player who has clearly been growing during the last two years.   If he gets measured at this coming pre-draft combine, it's very likely neither set of numbers from before will be repeated exactly.

The Hoops Summit numbers are well-regarded and standardized.  Historically, they have matched up with the other combine measurements, within some level of deviation to account for future growth.

The LSU numbers, on the other hand, suggest that Simmons added several inches to his standing reach within a matter of months, which would be a biological miracle.  They also suggest that Simmons ran the fastest 3/4 court sprint in the history of recorded combine measurements.  LSU's measurements of its others players wildly deviated in several instances from other more respected measurements, always to the advantage of the LSU player. 

So, between the 2014 Nike Skills Academy and the April 2015 Nike Hoop Summit, Simmons apparently grew two inches in height, but between the latter and the LSU camp it is not reasonable that his wingspan gained 1.25"?   

Do you think he did not grow during the intervening months?

Do you think he has not grown in the last calendar year?

Standing reach is always a dubious stat because it is posture dependent.  It doesn't matter how 'well regarded' the event is.  It has been the source of magical, super-athletic max vertical leaps by many a player formerly thought to be 'not athletic'.  There is no reason to put any more stock in the 8' 7" measurement over a year ago than the 9' 3" measurement at LSU.

The lying eye test and rebounding, steal & block stats & efficiency at the rim suggest to me that length is, ultimately, probably not a problem for Mr. Simmons.   

Whether other possible concerns such as his jump shooting or alleged 'character flags' are, I will leave it up to Danny and his staff to vet.  I'm not going to assert that he isn't without concerns -- no player is -- and in particular I am concerned about his reluctance to shoot in key moments. 

I just find some of the polarized debate over him to be somewhat contrived.  DE's strengths video shows one thing (look how great he rebounds!) and the weakness video shows the opposite (short arms means he has trouble rebounding!) -- and both are completely anecdotal so folks can latch on to whichever they want to support a viewpoint.   The current tone of negatives in the 'weakness' side of DE's portrayal would convey the image of someone barely deserving of a top lottery pick, let alone the #2 slot on their board.  In the 'length' criticism part of the video, made this Spring, they cite a year-old standing reach number, then throw a few anecdotal 'fail' rebounding and scoring events and claim dubiously that he failed because of reach issues.  But when I look carefully, that isn't clear at all that that's what the videos are showing - mostly they just show anecdotally moments when he failed to really get good position or timing.   Sometimes even the best, longest rebounders get beat.

I have no problem with the idea that Ingram should or might be the #1 pick.  But it almost seems as if there is an effort to exaggerate Simmons' negatives in order to justify that.  Sheesh.  Ingram is a great young prospect.  It should be possible to justify ranking him #1 based on his positives!

As I've said before, I'll be happy with whomever we get from this top group of players.
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Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #81 on: April 18, 2016, 07:57:46 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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I find it weird how folks on these sorts of boards get 'dug in' on positions such as some of the negative criticisms of not only Simmons, but also of Ingram, Bender, Brown, Heild, Murray & Dunn.

Some posters are relentless in reaching for negatives, seemingly pulled out of nowhere (really, really old scouting reports or videos from a year or more ago, quibbling over length & weight measures taken for 17 & 18 year old kids, third-and-fourth party gossip about 'intangibles, etc., etc.).   It makes you think that they would absolutely hate the idea of that player being on the Celtics.

Ultimately, who we get may not be a matter of choice.

If Danny gets the #2 pick, he's almost certainly going to take whomever of Simmons/Ingram is not taken.

It just seems strange to me to get all dug in and assertively negative about any of these players when the truth is, most on the board won't have a fraction of the information that Danny should have with which to make an informed choice.

I'm just glad we are certain to get a top 6 pick (and most likely a top 4).  I can see the positive potential in all the possible outcomes of that and I hope that those positives are realized.

I've noticed something slightly different. I see a ton of over-hyping of prospects, and I've seen a natural backlash to that. How can an objective fan not bristle a bit when a 19 year old with some glaring flaws is being compared to Magic and Oscar?

I doubt any of us would pass on Simmons at #2, but that's separate and apart from thinking he'll be a top-10 player of all-time.

Also, the only quibbling over measurements I remember is when a poster condescending tried to use LSU's biased measurements to shut down Jonathan Givony. When people bring snark and arrogance, I think it's fair to "quibble" about accuracy.

"Bristle"?  Are Magic and Oscar's legacies at stake because someone is trying to use them as a model for how a young player's game might fit in the NBA?

My least favorite of internet arguments:  the strawman, pumped up on hyperbolic PEDs.

Nobody said Magic and Oscar's legacies were at stake.  It seems odd that you'd jump to that conclusion.  Some of us are just wary of comparing a 19 year old who missed the Tournament to two of the top-10 players of all-time.  This being an internet discussion forum, off-base comparisons seem worthy of debate.

Quote
Saying that Kelly Olynyk plays a similar basketball role (7 foot stretch shooting big who can handle and pass the ball) to Dirk isn't asserting he will ever, ever be as good as Dirk.   What's to get offended about?

More strawmen.  Simmons was called a "6'10" Oscar Robertson" and a "slightly lesser" Magic.  Those are direct comparisons about how those posters saw Simmons projecting, not saying that guys have a similar style.  Also, of course, any comparison of KO to Dirk is lazy and does a disservice to Kelly, since it makes him look like an abject failure by comparison.

And, nobody said they were offended.  They just pointed out that others were being hyperbolic.  It's possible to have a discussion where two sides disagree without falling back on the faux outrage that so many hold near and dear.

Quote

Why is it "natural" to backlash against some fan's hyperbolic optimistic view of some player?  Why is it necessary to dig oneself in with negative hyperbole and in some cases intangible character aspersions about a young player in response to the hyperbole spewed by some random fan?

When somebody wildly overestimates somebody, it's a natural to move the discussion toward more realistic expectations.   I'm not sure that I've seen much negative hyperbole about Simmons.  What's hyperbolic about the criticism?  He's a poor outside shooter.  He missed the Tournament.  Experts have questioned whether he plays to hang stats.  Those may be unwarranted criticisms -- or they may be legit -- but they're certainly not hyperbolic.

Quote
I also know you are talking about me with the remark regarding LSU's measurements of Simmons versus the Hoop Summit numbers which you prefer to cite, but no one has answered to my question about why LSU's measurements, taken 6 months ago are necessarily less credible than measurements taken over a year ago, for a young player who has clearly been growing during the last two years.   If he gets measured at this coming pre-draft combine, it's very likely neither set of numbers from before will be repeated exactly.

The Hoops Summit numbers are well-regarded and standardized.  Historically, they have matched up with the other combine measurements, within some level of deviation to account for future growth.

The LSU numbers, on the other hand, suggest that Simmons added several inches to his standing reach within a matter of months, which would be a biological miracle.  They also suggest that Simmons ran the fastest 3/4 court sprint in the history of recorded combine measurements.  LSU's measurements of its others players wildly deviated in several instances from other more respected measurements, always to the advantage of the LSU player. 

Quote
I have a great deal of respect for Givony's work, but he's been plenty wrong about players before, and in many things he is as reliant as any on third-hand measurements, hearsay and data.  Your argument seems to slip towards an appeal to authority.

Since most of us don't have $100k+ scouting budgets, don't see more than a handful of prospects in person (if that),  and are often reliant upon youtube video, I think an appeal to expert authority is a good place to start.  Just about every realm of society relies upon experts.  I'm not sure why citing one for his opinion of a draft prospect is a bad thing, especially somebody who puts in the leg work and has the talent evaluating chops that Givony does. 

He's not right 100% of the time, but if he sees red flags, they're at least worth talking about.

Well said, on all points. Another TP.
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Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #82 on: April 18, 2016, 08:10:03 PM »

Offline max215

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I firmly believe the League has no interest in making the Celtics better---they sell out every game anyway--and have won tons of rings---so don't expect any help on lottery night---5th pick for sure...Lakers will get No. 1.... Phoenix No. 2....Minny No. 3....Philly No. 4
I firmly believe the opposite. 

#1 - The draft isn't fixed.  So there's that.

#2 - One could argue that in 2008 the league had a rooting interest in a Lakers/Celtics finals.  What transpired that season was a perfect storm leading to big-time dollars. 

Celtics have a top 5 fan base nationally in terms of size.  It's one of the premiere franchises in the league.  The league would very pleased to have a Celtic team playing deep into the playoffs.

I don't know, man. I generally try to stay away from conspiracy theories, but the Cavs winning the lottery two years in a row - the second time from the ninth position - setting it up perfectly for Lebron to come back and form a superteam in Cleveland is a little too much coincidence for me.
Jpotter, anytime someone says they are open to the conspiracy theory of the lotto being rigged, I have to ask if they have seen any of the behind-the-scenes videos.

2013 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKI-fToATpQ

2014 - http://www.nba.com/video/channels/draft/2014/05/20/052014-draft-lottery-behind-the-scenes.nba/

2015 - http://www.nba.com/video/channels/draft/2015/05/19/2015-draft-lottery-drawing.nba/

Just curious if you watched all of those, read about the process, and still think there's a chance it's fixed.   The only way it's fixed is if every team (which all have their own bottom-lines and could see their franchise value sky rocket if they land a star) is willingly part of it, and the media that are let into the room every year go along with it as well.

I'd say it's extremely unlikely unless you're willing to essentially say the entire sport is fixed.  And once you're willing to make that leap, it's just a tiny baby-step towards believing the NBA gifted the Celtics KG and gifted the Lakers Pau, then rigged the entire playoffs so the two teams would clash in the Finals back in 2008.  Either go all-in on the conspiracy theories or accept that they aren't very plausible.

All I'm saying is it Can be rigged---because they assign teams sequential combinations (not random)--and they SWITCH the balls-after the test drawing...If the league wanted to rig it--all they have to do is have one or two balls weigh more--in the Secured Box they bring in....Not probable---but Possible....Teams would have no idea what's going on--so of course they're not involved...if they got rid of the Sequential order of assigned numbers--nobody could rig it.
I'm just curious... if they had one or two balls weigh more so that they'd always come up right away, wouldn't that make every single drawing come up with the same results?  They'd just sit there for hours as the first two numbers popped up over and over again and the same team won the lotto, right?

Doesn't seem practical.

NOT saying the league could determine who Wins---but they could determine who DOESN'T Win (perceived tanking,etc)----The balls get blown UPWARDS---so weighted balls (with the correct air pressure in the machine)...might not get drawn---(example,2007--ALL Celtics number combinations had either #1 or #2 in them)---Why weren't the combinations Random-?-and not like the way they are---kinda fishy why they Switch the balls (from this supposed secured locked box)---but maybe there's nothing to it....If there was any way possible that the lottery is rigged---THIS is how they do it (but it's probably not rigged)

The balls get blown upwards ... but they don't have to go up very far to get 'selected'. The selector is the cross section of the selection tube extending down to just a few inches above the bottom of the chamber.  Air blows up from the very bottom directly at that tube and every ball that rolls to be bottom has a chance of going up and into that tube, so long as it can be blow up as high as the tube entrance.   Arguably, a heavier ball might 'nudge out' other balls in rolling back down to the bottom center and so get more shots at being lifted into the tube.    So it might have the opposite effect than what you want.

If you wanted to 'cheat' to keep a ball from going into the tube you would probably do better to instead do something to make them not fly straight, such as asymmetrically weighting them or scuffing them on one side.  That would make the ball tend to veer away from straight up when it hits the air jet and thus more likely to miss the tube (which is in the center).  The problem with this is that anybody who is inclined to think that cheating is going on could analyze the motion of the balls in these videos and confirm if any of them are heavier, lighter or asymmetrically treated based on their motion.   Given the high stakes involved, I would be shocked if this could be gotten away with since the videos exist and are public.

Making a ball slightly too large would prevent selection but would run the risk of getting stuck in the tube -- pretty apparent folks would scream bloody murder.

Keep in mind also that a team isn't being selected based on any one particular ball, but rather a sequence of ball numbers, and every team has a set of ball number sequences that they can match, so you could only really skew against a particular team if you knew that they had number sequences that had a much heavier weight of one or two ball numbers than any other team.

Basically, the lottery process seems convoluted, but it's actually structured to make it very non-deterministic to 'cheat' it.
It's amazing to me that people would actually believe this.

The Patrick Ewing draft is one thing.  But this new process seems pretty straight-forward to me.  There would have to be a ton of parties in on it, including independent firms who inspect the balls.   

It's not fixed.  If it had been fixed, Boston would have won the Duncan draft and Boston would have won the Oden/Durant draft and Boston would have won the Wiggins/Parker draft.   The idea that the league wants to keep one of their cornerstone franchises down in what has proven to be one of the two marquee sports cities in America for other sports (NFL and MLB, for instance) just seems a bit asinine.  Having a top NBA team playing in Boston is a good thing for everyone. 

I never understood the premise of "the league doesn't want the Celtics to succeed".  It makes no sense.

I think last year is a great lottery to disprove conspiracy theories. Philadelphia, New York, and Los Angeles had 3 of the 4 worst records. Three of the most important markets in the US were in contention to win the lottery...Minnesota won.
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Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #83 on: April 18, 2016, 09:21:38 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Oscar Robinson avg a preposterous 35ppg and 15 RPG as a freshman with no assist stats stated so granted that's pushing it.

 Magic Johnson avg 17 ppg 8 RPG 7.4 apg as a freshman. Certainly not comparing him to Magic one of my favorite players of all time.

 However Simmons Avg 19ppg 12rpg and 5 apg, isn't that far off.

 Magic was one of the best team leaders of all time, Simmons has shown no signs of leadership or maturity.

 I'm comfortable with the 6'10" Jason Kidd comparison, recognizing he can't hold Kidds Jock when it comes to leadership, Kidds the better passer by , While Simmons a better rebounder, Similar Speed and athleticism with Simmons obviously about 6" taller.

Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #84 on: April 18, 2016, 09:28:23 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 A quick check on Kidd his freshman year.

 13ppg 7.7apg 5rpg 3.8spg! Wow 4 steals per game.

 What I find interesting is Kidd who struggled with his shot especially early still attempted 2.9 three point attempts per game and shot .286%.

 However Simmons only attempted three three's all season! I can't ever remember a player with such skill and probably the #1 pick ever being scared to even attempt a three pointer. Wierd.

Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #85 on: April 18, 2016, 09:28:25 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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Comparing Simmons to all time greats is ridiculous.

What I see from him is an immediate upgrade at the 4 spot, with a chance to be much, much greater.

If we are lucky enough to get him and fans expect Magic Johnson level production, it's going to lead to fans turning on him as quickly as we've ever seen.

There seems to be a profound lack of patience on this board, if these are the expectations for Simmons, I foresee a lot of Simmons is a bust threads when he doesn't get at triple double his first game.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2016, 10:26:13 PM by Evantime34 »
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Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #86 on: April 18, 2016, 09:43:02 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Comparing Simmons to all time greats is ridiculous.

What I see from him is an immediate upgrade at the 4 spot, with a chance to be much, much greater.

If we are lucky enough to get him and fans expect Magic Johnson level production, it's going to lead to fans turning on him as quickly as we've ever seen.

There seems to be a profound lack of patients on this board, if these are the expectations for Simmons, I foresee a lot of Simmons is a bust threads when he doesn't get at triple double his first game.

What do you expect? This isn't a hospital!  ;) ;D
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Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #87 on: April 18, 2016, 09:45:22 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Nah, Evan. If your smart you know he's not an all time great like Magic, Kidd. Not Yet! I joke, I Kidd.

 I think the bigger point is, he's so darn hard to find a good comparison. For now let's just go with Lamar Odom, and you know what a quick check and those are the closest stats yet, but Odom's still a better shooter.

 So there it is folks a worse shooting Lamar Odom. Now let's hope without the drug or Kardashian problems.

 Odom freshman year. How about this the both played exactly the same about of minutes at 34.9 per game.

 Odom  17.6 ppg 9.4rpg  3.8 apg 1.5 bpg .8spg
              .482 fg% .330 3p% . 687 ft%

Simmons 19.2 ppg 11.8rpg 4.8 apg .8bpg 2.0spg
                   .561fg% .333 3p% .670ft%

 Remember Simmons only attempted three three's all year, so their FG% would be even closer considering.

Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #88 on: April 18, 2016, 10:24:22 PM »

Offline chambers

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At the end of the day, if we can't trade the pick for a star, I think everyone generally agrees that we take Ingram or Simmons at #2.
There's debate about who we'd pick #1 (I'm in the Simmons camp but I LOVE Ingram too).

Do most of those who are worried about Simmon's faults/flaws believe we should take him #2 or we should just avoid him altogether?
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Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Best scenario for Simmons. Celtics winning lottery.
« Reply #89 on: April 18, 2016, 10:26:29 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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Comparing Simmons to all time greats is ridiculous.

What I see from him is an immediate upgrade at the 4 spot, with a chance to be much, much greater.

If we are lucky enough to get him and fans expect Magic Johnson level production, it's going to lead to fans turning on him as quickly as we've ever seen.

There seems to be a profound lack of patients on this board, if these are the expectations for Simmons, I foresee a lot of Simmons is a bust threads when he doesn't get at triple double his first game.

What do you expect? This isn't a hospital!  ;) ;D
Good catch, tp.
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