The Celtics and the Four Factors

[PhoSita]

Again, it seems that a lot of the Celts strengths feed into maximizing a possession advantage.

I wonder if in the playoffs that advantage will be significantly lessened when the pace slows down.


Also, as I mentioned in another thread, it seems that the Hawks mirror a lot of the Celts' strengths, except that the Hawks are also an above average shooting team.

[saltlover]

Due to their ability to force turnovers, combined with their low turnover rate, the Celtics are second in the league (behind Memphis) in attempted field goal differential.  The Celtics average more than four additional field goal attempts than their opponents.  Furthermore, despite their poor eFG, they actually hold opponents to a sightly lower eFG defensively.  So they average essentially the same number of points per shot, and take more shots than the other guys.

It's a tricky way to win, because they're mostly relying on their extreme ability to play fast and take care of the ball at the same time, while forcing other teams into turnovers.  When that element of the game doesn't work, and it sometimes doesn't, the Celtics don't have much of a way to beat other teams.  Their already poor shooting is buoyed by a lot of easy baskets in transition.

That said, while it hasn't worked so far vs. Atlanta this season, they are 22nd in turnovers, dead last in offensive rebounding, and 26th in defensive rebounding, so it SHOULD work.

[PhoSita]

You raise good points, saltlover.  Atlanta is a poor rebounding team, so that should play to the Celts' strengths.  I think the Hawks probably prefer to play the way the Celts prefer to play -- i.e. fast and with lots of ball movement -- so it's not like they're going to be grinding the Celts to death.

That said, the Hawks are also an excellent defensive team, and a much better shooting team, so I feel like this will probably be a close, defensive series with the Hawks winning by virtue of simply making shots while the Celts' offense goes through major dry spells.

[Evantime34]

Again, it seems that a lot of the Celts strengths feed into maximizing a possession advantage.

I wonder if in the playoffs that advantage will be significantly lessened when the pace slows down.


Also, as I mentioned in another thread, it seems that the Hawks mirror a lot of the Celts' strengths, except that the Hawks are also an above average shooting team.

I don't expect the pace to slow in this series.

They mirror the Celtics strengths in a lot of ways except they turn the ball over a lot more and don't offensive rebound well.

[loco_91]

I'd say that there are two factors:

1. Offense
2. Defense.

C's are mediocre on offense and very good on defense.

[PhoSita]

Again, it seems that a lot of the Celts strengths feed into maximizing a possession advantage.

I wonder if in the playoffs that advantage will be significantly lessened when the pace slows down.


Also, as I mentioned in another thread, it seems that the Hawks mirror a lot of the Celts' strengths, except that the Hawks are also an above average shooting team.

I don't expect the pace to slow in this series.

Well, for what it's worth, the Hawks were 8th in the pace this year.


Last year, the Hawks were 15th in pace (93.9).


In the playoffs, in their 1st round series against the Nets they played at a pace of 93.5.  That made sense given that their opponent was 25th in pace.

Against the Wizards, the Hawks were back up to 94.  The Wizards were an average team in pace during the regular season.

Against the Cavaliers, the pace slowed to a crawl, all the way to 90.4.  But that was a matter of the Cavs dictating the terms of the series, since they were also a bottom 10 team in pace that season.


So yeah, I'd say you're right, we can probably expect the Hawks to play apace with the Celtics, since in the playoffs last year they seemed to play down to whatever style their opponents preferred, rather than setting the terms. 

Plus, in any case, the Hawks prefer to play fairly quickly, though not as fast as the Celtics.

[saltlover]

You raise good points, saltlover.  Atlanta is a poor rebounding team, so that should play to the Celts' strengths.  I think the Hawks probably prefer to play the way the Celts prefer to play -- i.e. fast and with lots of ball movement -- so it's not like they're going to be grinding the Celts to death.

That said, the Hawks are also an excellent defensive team, and a much better shooting team, so I feel like this will probably be a close, defensive series with the Hawks winning by virtue of simply making shots while the Celts' offense goes through major dry spells.

It will be an interesting series.  Both teams play to their opponents' strengths.  The Hawks are both great at shooting and great at causing their opponents to miss their shots.  The Celtics are not good at making shots.  Meanwhile, the Celtics are great at creating extra shots for themselves while the Hawks were 24th in FGA differential.  It will really be a contest of whether the Celtics can create enough extra shot attempts to mitigate the advantage has in making shots.

I think there will be a couple lopsided games this series, going both ways.  There will be a game where the Celtics are on fire (for them at least) from the floor, and use their shot-attempt differential to push way ahead.  And there will be a game where the Celtics couldn't throw it into a swimming pool and Atlanta takes care of the ball.

But there will also be some close ones where the Celtics force a lot of turnovers and control the boards, but Atlanta shoots well when they get their shots.  I think the C's will pull out the series in 6, but I'm not that confident.

[saltlover]

Make free throws, control the game, and you win game.

I've never seen a team that's missed so many free throws in every game than the Celtics.

The Celtics are 6th in the NBA in free throw percentage.  They shot 78.8%, against the league average of 75.7%.  They actually missed the 9th fewest free throws, despite taking an above average number.

You either haven't watched much basketball, or your eyes have deceived you.  They missed, on average, 5 per game.  If you want to watch a bad free throw team, Houston missed 9 per game.  They attempted the most, but had the 3rd worst percentage, at 69.4%.  Undoubtedly that was a major reason they coughed up so many 4th quarter leads this season.

[greece66]

Make free throws, control the game, and you win game.

I've never seen a team that's missed so many free throws in every game than the Celtics.

[hpantazo]

Make free throws, control the game, and you win game.

I've never seen a team that's missed so many free throws in every game than the Celtics.

The Celtics are 6th in the NBA in free throw percentage.  They shot 78.8%, against the league average of 75.7%.  They actually missed the 9th fewest free throws, despite taking an above average number.

You either haven't watched much basketball, or your eyes have deceived you.  They missed, on average, 5 per game.  If you want to watch a bad free throw team, Houston missed 9 per game.  They attempted the most, but had the 3rd worst percentage, at 69.4%.  Undoubtedly that was a major reason they coughed up so many 4th quarter leads this season.

That's what happens when you have Dwight Howard on your team.

[hpantazo]

What this Celtics team sorely lacks, and has lacked since trading Pierce, is a guy who can get to the line regularly to slow down he pace, break offensive droughts, and get the opposing team in foul trouble. At the start of the year I was hoping Smart would be that guy, but he's not there, at least not yet. We need a guy who can get to the basket and draw fouls consistently.

[saltlover]

Make free throws, control the game, and you win game.

I've never seen a team that's missed so many free throws in every game than the Celtics.

The Celtics are 6th in the NBA in free throw percentage.  They shot 78.8%, against the league average of 75.7%.  They actually missed the 9th fewest free throws, despite taking an above average number.

You either haven't watched much basketball, or your eyes have deceived you.  They missed, on average, 5 per game.  If you want to watch a bad free throw team, Houston missed 9 per game.  They attempted the most, but had the 3rd worst percentage, at 69.4%.  Undoubtedly that was a major reason they coughed up so many 4th quarter leads this season.

That's what happens when you have Dwight Howard on your team.

Doesn't help, but if Dwight Howard didn't take a free throw all year, the Rockets still would have missed more FT than Boston, and would have been 23rd at FT%, merely thousandths of a percentage point ahead of Miami and Utah for 24th and 25th.  People wish Danny had drafted Capela instead of Young, but there seems to be at least one poster here who would gouge his eyes out watching Capela from the line.

[Boris Badenov]

How do the Celts fare in these categories?

(1) Effective Field Goal Percentage: 48.8% . . . . 24th

(2) Turnover Percentage: 12.1% . . . . 3rd

(3) Defensive Rebound Rate: 74.6% . . . . 25th
      Offensive Rebound Rate: 25.1% . . . . 9th

(4) Free Throw Rate: 26.4% . . . . 20th

Just for fun here's how we did in 2007-08:

(1) Effective Field Goal Percentage: 52.2% . . . . 5th

(2) Turnover Percentage: 14.7% . . . . 29th

(3) Defensive Rebound Rate: 74.4% . . . . 8th
      Offensive Rebound Rate: 26.6% . . . . 18th

(4) Free Throw Rate: 26.7% . . . . 3rd

[saltlover]

What this Celtics team sorely lacks, and has lacked since trading Pierce, is a guy who can get to the line regularly to slow down he pace, break offensive droughts, and get the opposing team in foul trouble. At the start of the year I was hoping Smart would be that guy, but he's not there, at least not yet. We need a guy who can get to the basket and draw fouls consistently.

IT was 8th in the NBA in free throw attempts, and 4th at free throws made.  It would be nice to have a second player who can do that at least sometimes, however, as IT got to the line more than Crowder and Turner, our 2nd and 3rd most frequent FT shooters, did combined.  Still, the team got to the line at about a league-average rate, so while it's not a strength, it isn't really a deficit.

I always thought that Turner could take a huge step up in his game if he could draw 1-2 more fouls a game.  He's a very good free throw shooter, and pretty crafty in the lane.

[PhoSita]

How do the Celts fare in these categories?

(1) Effective Field Goal Percentage: 48.8% . . . . 24th

(2) Turnover Percentage: 12.1% . . . . 3rd

(3) Defensive Rebound Rate: 74.6% . . . . 25th
      Offensive Rebound Rate: 25.1% . . . . 9th

(4) Free Throw Rate: 26.4% . . . . 20th

Just for fun here's how we did in 2007-08:

(1) Effective Field Goal Percentage: 52.2% . . . . 5th

(2) Turnover Percentage: 14.7% . . . . 29th

(3) Defensive Rebound Rate: 74.4% . . . . 8th
      Offensive Rebound Rate: 26.6% . . . . 18th

(4) Free Throw Rate: 26.7% . . . . 3rd

Clean the defensive glass, get to the line, shoot a high percentage, and play stingy defense.  Yep, that was the formula.

I wonder if the turnover rate went down over between 2008 and 2012, as the players got more used to one another.


It's kind of funny, this Celtics team is basically an inverse of that 2008 team.  Poor defensive rebounding, poor shooting, low turnover rate, low free throw rate.

One similarity, of course, is the defense, but this Celts defense starts with the perimeter, whereas that 2008 team was monstrous inside.