Celtics Win Lottery and have #1 Pick - do you trade it?

[walker834]

We have a shot at Simmons and Thon Maker that's crazy.   Ok I've thought about it. No.

Ingram is not Durant. Hield is not Ray Allen.  Simmons is tim duncan with speed, ball handling and finishing ability on the break. Thon Maker has a lot of upside plus the plethora of centers and guards mentioned in free agency  No. No and No.

Yes I feel Simmons is the real deal. CEdric Maxwell and the internet and because i listen to other pov's just confused me for a bit when I don't just watch the games myself as much anymore and form my own opinion.  That's the problem with mass media and the internet especially for people like me who take in a lot of information non judgementally. But no.


Simmons is a taller Lebron but not a jerk.  He is a tim duncan, larry bird type prospect and personality who just plays more like Lebron. He's taller though and more apt at taking it to the rim in transition off  rebounds.  He also distributes the ball very well on the break and around the perimeter and can catch and shoot and post up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_Xl61KBWb8

the first shot I like the best but he can do everything on a basketball court. He's not a great defender at the 4 or the 3 which is somewhat of a concern but he is versatile enough where if we have pieces around him.  he's long and versatile enough where he can b other people though. He's underrated that way I feel and can really be a very good defender because of his athleticism if he has the mindset of a guy like Duncan.  He's pretty much unstoppable though on shots like that first one and finishing on the break.  He keeps the pressure on and is an extremely versatile scorer and distributer. 

Ingram is also a very good pure scorer.  He reminds me more of George GErvin than Durant though. Hield is like a cross between Pierce, Ray and Bradley Beal.  He has some steph curry to him with his shooting but I'm not sure I see him reaching that level in the nba.

Ainge has been looking for a trancendant player.  If we get the #1 pick I highly doubt he passes on Simmons.  Simmons is a transcendant player and the transcendant player in this draft.  He is a Duncan, Bird or Lebron type guy.  Hield and Ingram are not on that level.

Felger and Mazz talked down Simmons.  Cedric Maxwell went with Ingram and cowered to the pressure.. I hope Ainge doesn't get Felger'd.  This is what I hate about the media though.

[greece66]

I have no idea why Philly would do this.

Simmons isn't even a good fit for their roster.

If Hinkie was still around (sigh), I think he would go for Simmons simply because he has more upside. With the new front office situation, I have no clue as to what their priorities are. They might even try to trade their picks for an established star... who knows?

What I find even more problematic with this trade is giving up pick nr 2 and 4 for pick nr 1. You would only do this if there was a significant difference between the projected first and second pick (in which case, any team that accepted such a trade would be a sucker).

[Moranis]

this exact post has been made before

[celticsclay]

I would just add that I really hope Philly doesn't get both picks like this thread proposes. I feel like they have been bad for a long time so people tend to forget they are in our division. If everything does break right for them (Embiid plays, they draft 1 this year, Saric comes over and is Mirotic 2.0) they would be a force that would really be a thorn in the Celtics side as a fellow young team trying to take the leap to championship contender. I dont really care if the Lakers get the pick, the only time they could play us to stop us from getting the title would be in the finals and I would really love to see more Lakers Celtics finals.

[Moranis]

Here is the prior thread, even has a poll.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=81281.0

[walker834]

this thread was trending that way too until i started talking shiz.

[Jon]

This is cheating, but I say only if Danny is convinced that Ingram is "Durant" and Simmon is "Oden." That's not to say that Simmons will break down like Oden, but reports were that Danny was infatuated with Durant over Oden in that draft and would have selected Durant we got the number one pick.

But I find it highly unlikely that there are two transcendent players in one draft. So unless Danny really thinks he could have his cake and eat it too, I'd just pick the best player.

[Moranis]

This is cheating, but I say only if Danny is convinced that Ingram is "Durant" and Simmon is "Oden." That's not to say that Simmons will break down like Oden, but reports were that Danny was infatuated with Durant over Oden in that draft and would have selected Durant we got the number one pick.

But I find it highly unlikely that there are two transcendent players in one draft. So unless Danny really thinks he could have his cake and eat it too, I'd just pick the best player.

The prior thread had some interesting tidbits.  At the end of the day, if you get 2 and 4 correct, then history says that is probably the better path even in the years when there is a clear cut #1 headed to the draft. 

Here is the analysis I performed

2000 - Martin or Swift/Fizer - Martin (though Mike Miller and Jamal Crawford were both top 8 which makes it a bit more interesting)
2001 - Brown or Chandler/Curry - easy choice to trade even without the other good players
2002 - Ming or Jay Williams/Gooden - unknown since Williams was in the terrible accident and never played after his rookie year (A'Mare, Nene, and Caron Butler all top 10)
2003 - James or Darko/Bosh - obviously that is easily James, but less so with Melo and Bosh/Wade
2004 - Howard or Okafor/Livingston - again easy choice with Dwight, though Iggy and Deng also top 10
2005 - Bogut or Williams/Paul - Easy choice to make trade here even if you don't take other better players (Ainge wanted to trade Pierce to get the third pick for Paul, I think he might have taken him #1 actually)
2006 - Bargnani or Aldridge/Thomas - again easy choice to trade
2007 - Oden or Durant/Conley - again easy choice to trade and I think that is the case even if Oden lived up to the potential since him and KD would have been close
2008 - Rose or Beasley/Westbrook - injuries make this an easy trade, but even if you presumed Rose was healthy Westbrook still might be better (Love and Brook also in top 10)
2009 - Griffin or Thabeet/Evans - easy choice to keep Blake, but you make the trade if Harden and Curry are your selections (they went 3rd and 7th that year)
2010 - Wall or Turner/Johnson - again easy choice to keep wall, again not so easy if you make better selections at 2 and 4 and take DMC/Favor/Monroe/George who were all top 10, even guys like Hayward are quality players
2011 - Irving or Derrick Williams/Thompson - again easy choice to keep Kyrie and again not as easy if you swap out Williams for Jonas who went 5th or Klay Thompson who went 11th
2012 - Davis or MKG/Waiters - again easy to keep, unless you take Lillard and Drummond
2013 - Bennett or Oladipo/C.Zeller - make the trade every time - now if Noel hadn't been hurt he probably goes 1 and that makes it a lot more difficult
2014 - Wiggins or Parker/Gordon - Wiggins looks like a star and Jabari is injury prone, but this one is pretty early and you still have Exum, Smart, and Randle not to mention Embiid lingering
2015 - Towns or Russell/Porzingis - Towns looks like a monster and Russell hasn't looked good, but Kristaps has also looked pretty good - Okafor and Mudiay have also looked pretty good - this one could be interesting down the line

So I have 10 to 6 keep vs. trade of actual players drafted.  If you do a better job of drafting though trade wins out.