Best chance of winning overall #1 pick

[Evantime34]

Nearly every day I go on tankathon.com and simulate until I get a scenario in which the Celts get a top 2 pick and the Lakers lose their pick.

I do the espn mock lottery 10 times every day. There has only been one day the past 3 weeks where I didn't get Ingram or Simmons at least once.

[SHAQATTACK]

I'm not allowing myself to get caught up in a fantasy that very well may not happen .

When or if the Celtics are assured of the third pic.   .....then I'll dream .

Not before,

[hwangjini_1]

This thread is like a lesson in gambler's fallacy.

Just because it's happened in the past doesnt mean its less or more likely to happen again. The odds are the odds.

exactly correct. for example, if you flip a coin 9 times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds of it coming up heads the next time you flip it?

[Celtic_Pride777]

Can someone explain what happens if PHX and BKL tie for the 3rd spot in the lottery?

[LarBrd33]

Can someone explain what happens if PHX and BKL tie for the 3rd spot in the lottery?

There are 1001 possible lotto combos.  Worst record owns 250 combos, second worst team has 199 combos.  Third worst team gets 156 combos.  4th worst team gets 119 combos.

I believe they have a coin flip to determine which team would have 156 and which team would have 119.  They would average out 156 and 119.  A coin flip would determine which team gets 138 and what team gets 137 combos.  Also determines their position post-lotto if neither ends up in the top 3.

Really anything can happen at this point.  We know the statistical odds (if we stay at 4th we'd have a 35% chance of ending up picking 5th), but really anything can happen.   I think the Cavs won it twice from the 9th spot or something.  Luck is a major factor.  You're talking about either having a 15% or 11.9% chance... either way the odds are stacked against us.  It doesn't really matter if we end up at 3rd or 4th at this point, because we could win the coin flip only to see the Suns leapfrog us anyways. 

[MattyIce]

Can someone explain what happens if PHX and BKL tie for the 3rd spot in the lottery?

what I believe happens is that the two teams split the ping pong balls that would be 3rd and 4th place balls, and the coin flip determines who gets the one leftover ball and who gets the 3rd pick (if no other team jumps up/and neither team that split the balls moves up )

[LarBrd33]

Can someone explain what happens if PHX and BKL tie for the 3rd spot in the lottery?

what I believe happens is that the two teams split the ping pong balls that would be 3rd and 4th place balls, and the coin flip determines who gets the one leftover ball and who gets the 3rd pick (if no other team jumps up/and neither team that split the balls moves up )

Oh you might actually be right.  I thought they did a coin flip, but maybe they do split combos.

Edit:  Here it is from wiki ...

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination. The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.

So the average of 156 and 119 means one would have 137 and the other would have 138 of the possible 1001 combos.   Less than a 14% chance of ending up 1st.

[Jon]

Well, this could make up for 1997 and 2007.

[Celtics4ever]

If it happens, it happens, but I won't believe it until I see it.

[droopdog7]

Can someone explain what happens if PHX and BKL tie for the 3rd spot in the lottery?

There are 1001 possible lotto combos.  Worst record owns 250 combos, second worst team has 199 combos.  Third worst team gets 156 combos.  4th worst team gets 119 combos.

I believe they have a coin flip to determine which team would have 156 and which team would have 119.  They would average out 156 and 119.  A coin flip would determine which team gets 138 and what team gets 137 combos.  Also determines their position post-lotto if neither ends up in the top 3.

Really anything can happen at this point.  We know the statistical odds (if we stay at 4th we'd have a 35% chance of ending up picking 5th), but really anything can happen.   I think the Cavs won it twice from the 9th spot or something.  Luck is a major factor.  You're talking about either having a 15% or 11.9% chance... either way the odds are stacked against us. It doesn't really matter if we end up at 3rd or 4th at this point, because we could win the coin flip only to see the Suns leapfrog us anyways.

But it does matter.  In the event that neither team ends up in the top three, then the team that wins the coin flip gets to pick ahead of the team that does not win it.  Two years ago we lost the coin flip to Utah.

And am I the only one that does NOT like the fact that the #3 team has won so many times?  If there such a thing as evening out (and there isn't), one would think that it starts this year.

[libermaniac]

But it does matter.  In the event that neither team ends up in the top three, then the team that wins the coin flip gets to pick ahead of the team that does not win it.  Two years ago we lost the coin flip to Utah.

To me it's dumb that the winner of the coin flip gets BOTH the extra combination AND the better lotto slot.  The winner should get the choice of one or the other.  That would make things as fair as possible between two teams that tied ... but I'm splitting hairs.

[droopdog7]

But it does matter.  In the event that neither team ends up in the top three, then the team that wins the coin flip gets to pick ahead of the team that does not win it.  Two years ago we lost the coin flip to Utah.

To me it's dumb that the winner of the coin flip gets BOTH the extra combination AND the better lotto slot.  The winner should get the choice of one or the other.  That would make things as fair as possible between two teams that tied ... but I'm splitting hairs.

Funny.  I thought and posted the same thing a few weeks ago.  For what it's worth, the loser of the coin flip picks first in the second round.  Small consolation I know.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Like, Ive said before---NONE of this matters---because the number combinations assigned to teams are NOT random---they are in sequential order---makes a big difference.

It's like buying a lottery ticket, and selecting the numbers 1,2,3,4,5...you have absolutely ZERO chance of that combination being drawn randomly.

in 2007....EVERY number combination the C's were Assigned by the league had the number 1 or 2 in them---meaning they were screwed as soon as neither number was drawn....it's incredible that NBA teams put up with this....

it's also an easy way to rig the drawing, if you wanted to---just bring in the new, "Secured" balls (in a locked box)....The balls are forced upwards with air pressure---add some weight to balls 1 & 2...and you eliminate teams from getting a top pick....Make the number combinations random---and it eliminates any concern over Rigged lottery drawings.

[Boris Badenov]

Like, Ive said before---NONE of this matters---because the number combinations assigned to teams are NOT random---they are in sequential order---makes a big difference.

It's like buying a lottery ticket, and selecting the numbers 1,2,3,4,5...you have absolutely ZERO chance of that combination being drawn randomly.

Oh, dear. I mean this in the nicest possible way but you need some help understanding statistics and probability.

[LarBrd33]

Can someone explain what happens if PHX and BKL tie for the 3rd spot in the lottery?

There are 1001 possible lotto combos.  Worst record owns 250 combos, second worst team has 199 combos.  Third worst team gets 156 combos.  4th worst team gets 119 combos.

I believe they have a coin flip to determine which team would have 156 and which team would have 119.  They would average out 156 and 119.  A coin flip would determine which team gets 138 and what team gets 137 combos.  Also determines their position post-lotto if neither ends up in the top 3.

Really anything can happen at this point.  We know the statistical odds (if we stay at 4th we'd have a 35% chance of ending up picking 5th), but really anything can happen.   I think the Cavs won it twice from the 9th spot or something.  Luck is a major factor.  You're talking about either having a 15% or 11.9% chance... either way the odds are stacked against us. It doesn't really matter if we end up at 3rd or 4th at this point, because we could win the coin flip only to see the Suns leapfrog us anyways.

But it does matter.  In the event that neither team ends up in the top three, then the team that wins the coin flip gets to pick ahead of the team that does not win it.  Two years ago we lost the coin flip to Utah.

And am I the only one that does NOT like the fact that the #3 team has won so many times?  If there such a thing as evening out (and there isn't), one would think that it starts this year.

Yeah in respect to picking 3rd or 4th (if things stay the same), it would matter a little, but when there's seemingly only a couple consensus picks it might not be a big deal.