Ainge receives praise from Hinkie

[PhoSita]

You can simplify it like that if you want, but I think more of the argument comes from people having low opinions of Okafor and think spending a top 3 pick on a player that may never play is a huge miss.

You may be right.  I understand there's a lot of negativity about Okafor.  I still believe in him, big time. 

But if you're just looking at it based on draft night, Okafor was pretty much a no-brainer where they took him.  The talent was just too good to pass up there.  The alternative was draft a Euro with a limited track record over a highly recruited big man who was dominant in college and won a NCAA championship as the main man at Duke.

No, I don't think it ever made sense to think he and Noel could play together, but I think he was just too good to pass up there.


My biggest criticism of Hinkie with Okafor and Noel is that he didn't do a good enough job working with the rest of the roster to try and set up Okafor and Noel for success.  Okafor in particular looked terrible this year because his skillset was a horrible fit with virtually all of his teammates.  Both he and Noel improved markedly once they added a point guard who could actually drive and pass, though.

Despite all of that, I think if the Sixers want to trade Okafor or Noel this summer, they won't have any trouble finding teams willing to give them a substantial trade package.


As for Embiid, similar situation.  It's clear now Embiid was drafted too high, but it's hard to say it was the wrong pick without knowing more about what information was available about his feet before the draft.

[MBunge]

sure, the rebuild was taking too long, but this was something Hinkie had made clear from day 1.

Is there any public comment from Hinkie that "The Process" was going to last at least three years, with Philly winning fewer games in year three than in year one?

And judging from his resignation letter, doesn't it seem like a big issue is that Hinkie wanted to keep the option open of extending the tank for yet another year?  I mean, if he was on board with trying to win now, why would he feel the need to quit?

Mike

[MBunge]

After three years, the only other legitimate NBA player on the Sixers roster besides Noel and Okafor is Covington and he's probably the 9th or 10th guy in a good team's rotation.  And don't say cap space because almost every team in the league is going to have cap space.

Every rebuild requires the "Get lucky" step you mentioned, and is prone to stalling out if that one fails.

It's true the Sixers don't have many "legitimate NBA players" on the roster right now, but that's not a rubric for judging their rebuild, three years into it, that I find particularly persuasive or useful.

Hinkie approached his rebuild of the Sixers with a strategy that needed at least 5 years to play out before it could be properly judged.  What we can say after 3 years is he did a very good job assembling a pile of assets, despite the fact that he didn't enjoy any major strokes of good fortune along the way.

The next step to the rebuild is actually putting those assets to use to build a team.  This summer would have been the opportune time to do that.  But now Hinkie will never get the chance to make something out of the raw resources he accumulated.

1.  Again, suck and luck.  Three years is more than enough time to trade for a promising young player or sign a decent free agent.  Hinkie refused to even consider either of those things.  As Hinkie was twiddling his thumbs, Ainge traded for IT, Crowder, Zeller and Jerebko and signed Turner and Amir.  Hinkie might not have been able to do that well but the point is HE DIDN'T EVEN TRY TO DO ANYTHING BECAUSE HIS PLAN WAS TO SPEND YEARS NEVER EVEN TRYING TO DO IT.  Suck and luck.

2.  Hinkie has NOT done a very good job assembling assets.  He has in fact left the team with surprisingly few assets after three years of rebuilding.  There's a very good chance they won't get the Lakers pick this year and that it will be a lot lower in the lottery when they do get it next year.  Their other two first round picks this year will be in the mid to late 20s, otherwise known as the zone where GMs strike out as much or more than they hit.  They've also got an extra 2nd round pick this year and a bunch of 2nd rounders between 2018 and 2020.  Noel and Okafor have probably less value now than when they were drafted, they probably couldn't get a plug nickel for Embiid until he proves he can stay healthy and Saric is currently 23 and averaging a whopping 11.6 points in Europe.

Compared to the Nets, Philly is in pretty good shape.  But three years of tanking and THAT'S all they've got?

Mike

If the Lakers pick conveys they've got 2 top 5 picks, a hedge on next years draft position with Sacramento, 2 more 1sts this year, a Sacramento 1st that goes unprotected the year after Boogie becomes a FA, Saric, Noel, Okafor and a plus 3 pt shooter who is 6'9 and makes 1 million dollars a year locked up for two more seasons.

What planet do you live on where those aren't a lot of assets? There are a handful of teams in the league with more to offer. Boston might be one, and aside from that???

Quantity of assets is not the same as quality of assets.  No one has any idea what the Sacramento pick or option to swap will ultimately be worth.  The Lakers pick may or may not convey.  Two firsts in the mid to late 20s could turn into Tony Allens or Fab Melos.  Noel could never be more than a worse version of DeAndre Jordan.  Okafor might never be more than Brook Lopez.  Saric could be a bust.

That's not garbage but in what world is that an impressive collection of assets THREE YEARS into a rebuild with the most aggressive tanking strategy of all time where the GM has done nothing but strip mine his roster to try and grab as many future assets as possible?

Mike

[loco_91]

I feel sad for Philly fans. Hinkie was a brilliant GM. He had the long view. He was a good drafter - Noel obviously was a great pick, and Embiid was a ballsy pick that might still pan out. He also made some great smaller moves, like picking up RobCov this season. The Sixers future is bright, unless Colangelo messes everything up by trading their good players + picks for vets in a futile effort to 'win now'.

[MBunge]

Tp.  Some people just aren't going to "get it" with Philly until they see them improve.  They will cite "magic" as the reason for the sudden influx of talent.

The team is basically in perfect position for a quick turnaround.

Everyone "gets it" with Philly.  We just don't give them any credit for pursuing strategy that takes a steaming dump over the sport and we don't give them credit for success before it happens.

After three years of tanking, Philly doesn't have a legitimate starting point guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate back up point guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting shooting guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate back up shooting guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting small forward.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting power forward.  The only legitimate back up power forward on the roster is 32 years old.

Yet despite decades of basketball and dozens (hundreds?) of teams that had even more talent and never amounted to anything, Philly is perfectly positioned for a quick turnaround?

Mike

[Casperian]

The difference between Ainge and Hinkie or Buford and Hinkie is that those guys had plans that were always going to work, just maybe not work well enough to win a title.  Ainge was accumulating assets he was always going to cash in for a star player.  Buford was creating cap space while still keeping the Spurs a title contender and he was always going to get someone to sign there.  Maybe Ainge doesn't get Ray and KG and maybe Buford doesn't get Aldridge, but they would still have had an option B, C and D to fall back on.

And they wouldn't have turned their franchises into steaming piles of garbage to do so.

Hinkie, on the other hand, had a plan that consisted of two parts.

1.  Suck.
2.  Get lucky.

And he had no fallback position when #2 didn't work.

Mike

This is a wild oversimplification, but it's illustrative of why casual fans love to hate on Hinkie.

And that response is illustrative of why people who aren't nearly as smart as they think they are have been Hinkie's biggest fans.

Agreed, and that's the mind-blowing part for me. The apologists act as if Hinkie invented a brilliant, revolutionary method of rebuilding, when the plan of "getting really bad to get high draft picks" is as old as the draft itself. That's the first thing which comes to any GMs mind when he faces a rebuild, it's how every kid on the planet plays GM mode in NBA2K.

The plan itself wasn't revolutionary, what was revolutionary was the consequential adherence to said plan....and there are very good reasons for that. The fact that it will probably cost you your job, for example.

There are, of course, less personal reasons, too.

- the fact that getting the worst record doesn't guarantee you the first pick

- every draft is different, and getting a high pick in a bad draft doesn't help you to win any more games

- all you get is a prospect, and every perceived star potential this prospect might have is nothing but conjecture which could be derailed by any number of things, like injuries, for example

just to name a few.
While the apologists are correct in pointing out that every strategy needs a little bit of luck to work out, they fail to understand that this particular strategy has several layers and instances in which you have to get lucky, and there are far safer and less extreme methods to rebuild.

That is why people make fun of Hinkie. For a guy who has been hyped as genius and revolutionary, he chose the most basic and dangerous plan of them all. Nobody ever doubted this plan couldn't work out, they doubted the sanity of choosing this particular path.

[wayupnorth]

After three years, the only other legitimate NBA player on the Sixers roster besides Noel and Okafor is Covington and he's probably the 9th or 10th guy in a good team's rotation.  And don't say cap space because almost every team in the league is going to have cap space.

Every rebuild requires the "Get lucky" step you mentioned, and is prone to stalling out if that one fails.

It's true the Sixers don't have many "legitimate NBA players" on the roster right now, but that's not a rubric for judging their rebuild, three years into it, that I find particularly persuasive or useful.

Hinkie approached his rebuild of the Sixers with a strategy that needed at least 5 years to play out before it could be properly judged.  What we can say after 3 years is he did a very good job assembling a pile of assets, despite the fact that he didn't enjoy any major strokes of good fortune along the way.

The next step to the rebuild is actually putting those assets to use to build a team.  This summer would have been the opportune time to do that.  But now Hinkie will never get the chance to make something out of the raw resources he accumulated.

1.  Again, suck and luck.  Three years is more than enough time to trade for a promising young player or sign a decent free agent.  Hinkie refused to even consider either of those things.  As Hinkie was twiddling his thumbs, Ainge traded for IT, Crowder, Zeller and Jerebko and signed Turner and Amir.  Hinkie might not have been able to do that well but the point is HE DIDN'T EVEN TRY TO DO ANYTHING BECAUSE HIS PLAN WAS TO SPEND YEARS NEVER EVEN TRYING TO DO IT.  Suck and luck.

2.  Hinkie has NOT done a very good job assembling assets.  He has in fact left the team with surprisingly few assets after three years of rebuilding.  There's a very good chance they won't get the Lakers pick this year and that it will be a lot lower in the lottery when they do get it next year.  Their other two first round picks this year will be in the mid to late 20s, otherwise known as the zone where GMs strike out as much or more than they hit.  They've also got an extra 2nd round pick this year and a bunch of 2nd rounders between 2018 and 2020.  Noel and Okafor have probably less value now than when they were drafted, they probably couldn't get a plug nickel for Embiid until he proves he can stay healthy and Saric is currently 23 and averaging a whopping 11.6 points in Europe.

Compared to the Nets, Philly is in pretty good shape.  But three years of tanking and THAT'S all they've got?

Mike

If the Lakers pick conveys they've got 2 top 5 picks, a hedge on next years draft position with Sacramento, 2 more 1sts this year, a Sacramento 1st that goes unprotected the year after Boogie becomes a FA, Saric, Noel, Okafor and a plus 3 pt shooter who is 6'9 and makes 1 million dollars a year locked up for two more seasons.

What planet do you live on where those aren't a lot of assets? There are a handful of teams in the league with more to offer. Boston might be one, and aside from that???

Tp.  Some people just aren't going to "get it" with Philly until they see them improve.  They will cite "magic" as the reason for the sudden influx of talent.

The team is basically in perfect position for a quick turnaround.

Do you really not see how incredibly egotistical you come across with posts like this?

"Some people just aren't going to get it"'

Seriously, please get over yourself, and quit acting like you are smarter than everyone else.

I read your post linked in your Sig, and it is just dripping with arrogance, as are so many of your posts, such as this one.

Again, get over yourself.

[wayupnorth]

Tp.  Some people just aren't going to "get it" with Philly until they see them improve.  They will cite "magic" as the reason for the sudden influx of talent.

The team is basically in perfect position for a quick turnaround.

Everyone "gets it" with Philly.  We just don't give them any credit for pursuing strategy that takes a steaming dump over the sport and we don't give them credit for success before it happens.

After three years of tanking, Philly doesn't have a legitimate starting point guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate back up point guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting shooting guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate back up shooting guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting small forward.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting power forward.  The only legitimate back up power forward on the roster is 32 years old.

Yet despite decades of basketball and dozens (hundreds?) of teams that had even more talent and never amounted to anything, Philly is perfectly positioned for a quick turnaround?

Mike

Agreed. Hilarious to try and say how good of a position the Sixers are in.

But personally, I just think it is because some posters here play too much 2k or fantasy ball, and think they are the smartest person in the room.

Lol at the Sixers.

[PhoSita]

Agreed, and that's the mind-blowing part for me. The apologists act as if Hinkie invented a brilliant, revolutionary method of rebuilding, when the plan of "getting really bad to get high draft picks" is as old as the draft itself. That's the first thing which comes to any GMs mind when he faces a rebuild, it's how every kid on the planet plays GM mode in NBA2K.

I think it's less that he "invented a revolutionary method of rebuilding" and more the strict adherence to a long term plan without regard for short term consequences.

It's the way everybody plays GM mode in NBA 2K because in the video game you're not beholden to the constraints of fan revenue, player morale, constant media criticism, or ownership expectations, and it's also really easy to take advantage of opposing "GMs" controlled by the AI to put yourself at the top of the draft virtually every year.

It was fascinating to see somebody actually try to put that kind of plan into action in real life, where all of those factors are actually in play and opposing teams are run by actual people -- mostly intelligent ones. 

A lot of people, I think, respect that completely unsentimental approach to the incentives system in place in the NBA.  ("Don't hate the player hate the game," basically) 

To many others, that same disregard for the way things "should be done," including the perceived obligation to actually put a plausible product on the floor each night, was distasteful, even repugnant.

There are plenty of reasons why it didn't work out, and none of them are especially surprising.  The plan has not yielded the kind of returns the Sixers no doubt hoped it would (i.e. they haven't become the Thunder yet) because they didn't have good luck in the lottery. 

Despite that, I think it's far too soon to have judged "The Process" a failure because most rebuilds are going to take a lot more than three years to come to fruition, especially when the starting point is as bad as it was for the Sixers.


That there, actually, is probably the biggest disconnect here, and maybe the biggest reason "The Process" has been so polarizing.

Many regarded the "all out tank" strategy as one that was designed to guarantee instant gratification -- multiple top 3 or 4 picks in a row.  What can go wrong?

I think it's actually the opposite.  Even an all-out tank can't guarantee that over a three year period you're going to "win" the draft and end up with multiple All-Star prospects.  But going that route is probably the easiest way to ensure that after five or six years of hanging out in the lottery, you will have such a mountain of assets that you can build the team pretty much any way you want after that.

Some teams hang around in lottery land for a decade or more and end up none the better for it.  See: Kings.

[LarBrd33]

Tp.  Some people just aren't going to "get it" with Philly until they see them improve.  They will cite "magic" as the reason for the sudden influx of talent.

The team is basically in perfect position for a quick turnaround.

Everyone "gets it" with Philly.  We just don't give them any credit for pursuing strategy that takes a steaming dump over the sport and we don't give them credit for success before it happens.

After three years of tanking, Philly doesn't have a legitimate starting point guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate back up point guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting shooting guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate back up shooting guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting small forward.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting power forward.  The only legitimate back up power forward on the roster is 32 years old.

Yet despite decades of basketball and dozens (hundreds?) of teams that had even more talent and never amounted to anything, Philly is perfectly positioned for a quick turnaround?

Mike

Like I said, you don't get it

At this point, you aren't going to get it until you see results.  No point in posting about it back and forth.   There's a fundamental misunderstanding of what hinkie has succeeded in doing for that team. 

[LarBrd33]

Agreed, and that's the mind-blowing part for me. The apologists act as if Hinkie invented a brilliant, revolutionary method of rebuilding, when the plan of "getting really bad to get high draft picks" is as old as the draft itself. That's the first thing which comes to any GMs mind when he faces a rebuild, it's how every kid on the planet plays GM mode in NBA2K.

I think it's less that he "invented a revolutionary method of rebuilding" and more the strict adherence to a long term plan without regard for short term consequences.

It's the way everybody plays GM mode in NBA 2K because in the video game you're not beholden to the constraints of fan revenue, player morale, constant media criticism, or ownership expectations, and it's also really easy to take advantage of opposing "GMs" controlled by the AI to put yourself at the top of the draft virtually every year.

It was fascinating to see somebody actually try to put that kind of plan into action in real life, where all of those factors are actually in play and opposing teams are run by actual people -- mostly intelligent ones. 

A lot of people, I think, respect that completely unsentimental approach to the incentives system in place in the NBA.  ("Don't hate the player hate the game," basically) 

To many others, that same disregard for the way things "should be done," including the perceived obligation to actually put a plausible product on the floor each night, was distasteful, even repugnant.

There are plenty of reasons why it didn't work out, and none of them are especially surprising.  The plan has not yielded the kind of returns the Sixers no doubt hoped it would (i.e. they haven't become the Thunder yet) because they didn't have good luck in the lottery. 

Despite that, I think it's far too soon to have judged "The Process" a failure because most rebuilds are going to take a lot more than three years to come to fruition, especially when the starting point is as bad as it was for the Sixers.


That there, actually, is probably the biggest disconnect here, and maybe the biggest reason "The Process" has been so polarizing.

Many regarded the "all out tank" strategy as one that was designed to guarantee instant gratification -- multiple top 3 or 4 picks in a row.  What can go wrong?

I think it's actually the opposite.  Even an all-out tank can't guarantee that over a three year period you're going to "win" the draft and end up with multiple All-Star prospects.  But going that route is probably the easiest way to ensure that after five or six years of hanging out in the lottery, you will have such a mountain of assets that you can build the team pretty much any way you want after that.

Some teams hang around in lottery land for a decade or more and end up none the better for it.  See: Kings.

I agree with most of what you say until you suggest it "didn't work out".  They set out to tank at the start of 2013-14 season.  They set out to tank at the start of the 2014-15 season.  They set out to tank at the start of the 2015-16 season.   At no point during the past 3 years have they wanted any result other than losses - so how can you say it hasn't worked out?  They are right in the position they wanted to be in.

We will not know if it worked out for a few years.  Each year the hope was that they'd get a star prize.  We are still waiting to see what becomes of embiid and saric.  We are still waiting to see what becomes of their picks this year.  And Okafor is supremely underrated for a rookie that basically averaged 20 and 10. 

The other thing, like you say, is that the process was never a guarantee to land the next Lebron James.  Having skimmed hinkies letter it's clear he's aware of this.  He said at best an elite prospect has a 10% chance of ending up a superstar.  But you miss every shot you don't take.  The team was dedicated to the idea that you need a superstar to contend in this league (fact) and they needed to do everything possible to maximize their chances at getting one.  So for 3 years they avoided doing anything (like sign the Amir johnsons and Brandon basses of the world) to maximize their chance of getting stars via the draft.  They decided free agency wasn't a viable option for them (at the time they were over the cap) and they didn't have the assets to trade for one.

Now, when the dust settles on this, one of their 6+ seeds might actually end up growing into a superstar.  Noel might be the only one you can confidently say will never get there - and that guy has DPOY potential.  The others the jury is still out.  Beyond that they now have 80 mil in cap space so they can at least go after big name free agents.  Additionally, their prospect/pick assets rival any team in the league including Boston (assuming the Celtics don't include crowder) so if a star becomes available via trade - philly is firmly in the running.  Lastly, they can probably add about 15-20 wins just by opening their pockets for some veteran role players.  Even if the Durants of the world are unlikely, I guarantee you the Amir johnsons and Brandon basses of the world will be happy to take Philly's money when offered.

They are in great position for a quick turnaround.  Some folks just don't get it.  Tunnel vision prevents some fans from seeing the possibilities there.

Say they flip Okafor for a guy like Cj McCollum or d'Angelo Russell.  Say saric comes over.  Say embiid finally plays.  Say they flip Noel for a guard like Marcus smart.  Say they end up with Ben Simmons.  Say the laker pick conveys someone like dragon bender or hield.   Say they spend 5-7 mil a pop on a handful of competent role players like tony Allen.  Say they overpay and give a max contract to someone like Mike Conley. Say they make a play for jimmy butler or Kevin love.

There's a ton that could happen this summer and they will have plenty of opportunities to dramatically improve that team.  Dream job for any gm.

[Snakehead]

Ainge had a flexible plan that respected the fans and the players.  Hinkie did not.  I'm with Ainge.

I think Hinkie will be remembered as a guy who exploited the draft processes that encouraged tanking before they changed the rules.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Ainge had a flexible plan that respected the fans and the players.  Hinkie did not.  I'm with Ainge.

I think Hinkie will be remembered as a guy who exploited the draft processes that encouraged tanking before they changed the rules.

Ainge also started with 2 HOFers to trade and most if not all of his draft picks.

[Snakehead]

Ainge had a flexible plan that respected the fans and the players.  Hinkie did not.  I'm with Ainge.

I think Hinkie will be remembered as a guy who exploited the draft processes that encouraged tanking before they changed the rules.

Ainge also started with 2 HOFers to trade and most if not all of his draft picks.

I'll give him credit for things he did before that trade as well, yeah.  Getting the Big Three together was his best move.  He's a great GM.

[wayupnorth]

Tp.  Some people just aren't going to "get it" with Philly until they see them improve.  They will cite "magic" as the reason for the sudden influx of talent.

The team is basically in perfect position for a quick turnaround.

Everyone "gets it" with Philly.  We just don't give them any credit for pursuing strategy that takes a steaming dump over the sport and we don't give them credit for success before it happens.

After three years of tanking, Philly doesn't have a legitimate starting point guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate back up point guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting shooting guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate back up shooting guard.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting small forward.  It doesn't have a legitimate starting power forward.  The only legitimate back up power forward on the roster is 32 years old.

Yet despite decades of basketball and dozens (hundreds?) of teams that had even more talent and never amounted to anything, Philly is perfectly positioned for a quick turnaround?

Mike

Like I said, you don't get it

At this point, you aren't going to get it until you see results.  No point in posting about it back and forth.   There's a fundamental misunderstanding of what hinkie has succeeded in doing for that team.

Wow.