Does anyone still think Harrison Barnes is worth a max from the C's?

[The One]

Harrison Barnes just reminds me of Jeff Green.

Yeah, I get that he is talented, athletic, versatile, and would fit right in with what we do, but I can't help think that he doesn't have that killer instinct. Maybe that doesn't matter to Danny and being able to sign a player of his caliber without giving up any assets makes perfect sense, but I don't think we should expect him to be one of our top options if he does sign here.

Harden was mentioned as an example of why he might flourish if given the chance; Barnes doesn't have Harden's mentality, at all.

I want guys that I know are superstars with killer instincts. You can't afford to mess up with the nba salary cap and guaranteed contracts.

This!  He has not shown enough of that mentality. Now is that because he doesn't have it or because of his team's dynamics?

If he has it then yes.  But if not, then you can't just commit those resources to him.

My thoughts of a max player are great talent AND great mental makeup. Someone who the rest of the team will follow into "battle" especially when the odds are not in your favor.

[saltlover]

I would prefer a max player who has already proven he's a max player.

When you give out max contracts to players you hope will be a max player, that can get you in trouble.

Not saying you shouldn't do it, but you have to be careful, and I'm guessing Barnes would be pretty far down the list when it comes to the moves Danny is trying to make.

There are 1-2 of those players this year (Durant and maybe Horford).  Furthermore, there are multiple types of max contract values -- those for players with 0-6 year of experience (Barnes' category), those with 7-9 (Durant and Horford), and those with 10+ (LeBron).  Max players in the first group will get about $21 million next year, in the middle group will get about $26 million, and in the last group will get over $30 million.  Furthermore, with another cap jump coming in the summer of 2017, those numbers should increase another 20%.

When people think of a max player that we can get, obviously they think Durant.  But KD is likely to sign a 1-year deal this year and then a 4-year deal next summer.  This year he would get about $26 million, and next summer, since he would now be in the 10+ years of experience category, would get around $36 million.  Meanwhile Barnes would sign a 4-year deal this summer (presumably), which would pay him about $21 million this summer, and $22 million next summer.  This summer he might seem to be overpaid, but next summer, when players like Durant and Chris Paul will get $36 million, and Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry $31 million, $22 million doesn't seem nearly as unreasonable.  Next summer it wouldn't surprise me if Nerlens Noel gets the max of $25 million for his experience category.

It's looking to be a very weird free agency market the next couple of summers.  Normally the max salaries increase 5% between years, not 20-30%.  And at the same time, normally there aren't 20+ teams with max room.  Including our cap holds for first round picks, (but excluding non-guaranteed deals and free agents) the Celtics have currently have 12 players under contract next season at $40 million dollars.  This gives them $50 or so million to spend on 3 contracts using only cap room.  There's a certain point when sitting on your pile of cash doesn't make sense, and this might be one of those summers.

[Dino Pitino]

  This summer he might seem to be overpaid, but next summer, when players like Durant and Chris Paul will get $36 million, and Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry $31 million, $22 million doesn't seem nearly as unreasonable.  Next summer it wouldn't surprise me if Nerlens Noel gets the max of $25 million for his experience category.

It'll seem very unreasonable after the first two years of the contract when the cap goes back down in the summer of 2018. That's two years of getting Barnes at an extremely inflated "market rate", and then two years of a massive, cap-choking overpay.

Noel is actually excellent at something.

[saltlover]

  This summer he might seem to be overpaid, but next summer, when players like Durant and Chris Paul will get $36 million, and Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry $31 million, $22 million doesn't seem nearly as unreasonable.  Next summer it wouldn't surprise me if Nerlens Noel gets the max of $25 million for his experience category.

It'll seem very unreasonable after the first two years of the contract when the cap goes back down in the summer of 2018. That's two years of getting Barnes at an extremely inflated "market rate", and then two years of a massive, cap-choking overpay.

Noel is actually excellent at something.

The cap will still be above next year's level, given the most recent forecasts.  $89 million this summer, $108 million in 2017, $100 million in 2018, and $102 million in 2019.  It's not like it's returning to the current year of $70 million, or last year's $63 million.  And those are also conservative projections by the NBA.  When they were forecast, the cap this season was supposed to be $67 million, instead of the $70 million that it actually became three months later.  It's rather unlikely there will be a significant cap contraction.

[Dino Pitino]

  This summer he might seem to be overpaid, but next summer, when players like Durant and Chris Paul will get $36 million, and Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry $31 million, $22 million doesn't seem nearly as unreasonable.  Next summer it wouldn't surprise me if Nerlens Noel gets the max of $25 million for his experience category.

It'll seem very unreasonable after the first two years of the contract when the cap goes back down in the summer of 2018. That's two years of getting Barnes at an extremely inflated "market rate", and then two years of a massive, cap-choking overpay.

Noel is actually excellent at something.

The cap will still be above next year's level, given the most recent forecasts.  $89 million this summer, $108 million in 2017, $100 million in 2018, and $102 million in 2019.  It's not like it's returning to the current year of $70 million, or last year's $63 million.  And those are also conservative projections by the NBA.  When they were forecast, the cap this season was supposed to be $67 million, instead of the $70 million that it actually became three months later.  It's rather unlikely there will be a significant cap contraction.

That's a relief. I thought it was going way back down. We'd probably still be forced to make painful decisions with a player like Barnes taking up 1/5th to 1/4th of our cap space. I can already hear the lament, "We'd be able to ________ if we hadn't signed Barnes."

[Csfan1984]

  This summer he might seem to be overpaid, but next summer, when players like Durant and Chris Paul will get $36 million, and Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry $31 million, $22 million doesn't seem nearly as unreasonable.  Next summer it wouldn't surprise me if Nerlens Noel gets the max of $25 million for his experience category.

It'll seem very unreasonable after the first two years of the contract when the cap goes back down in the summer of 2018. That's two years of getting Barnes at an extremely inflated "market rate", and then two years of a massive, cap-choking overpay.

Noel is actually excellent at something.

The cap will still be above next year's level, given the most recent forecasts.  $89 million this summer, $108 million in 2017, $100 million in 2018, and $102 million in 2019.  It's not like it's returning to the current year of $70 million, or last year's $63 million.  And those are also conservative projections by the NBA.  When they were forecast, the cap this season was supposed to be $67 million, instead of the $70 million that it actually became three months later.  It's rather unlikely there will be a significant cap contraction.

That's a relief. I thought it was going way back down. We'd probably still be forced to make painful decisions with a player like Barnes taking up 1/5th to 1/4th of our cap space. I can already hear the lament, "We'd be able to ________ if we hadn't signed Barnes."

Think it could be worse. Could be, "We shouldn't have resigned Turner and Sully. We knew what they were."

Barnes all the way. Don't fall in love with the single G.S. win.

[saltlover]

  This summer he might seem to be overpaid, but next summer, when players like Durant and Chris Paul will get $36 million, and Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry $31 million, $22 million doesn't seem nearly as unreasonable.  Next summer it wouldn't surprise me if Nerlens Noel gets the max of $25 million for his experience category.

It'll seem very unreasonable after the first two years of the contract when the cap goes back down in the summer of 2018. That's two years of getting Barnes at an extremely inflated "market rate", and then two years of a massive, cap-choking overpay.

Noel is actually excellent at something.

The cap will still be above next year's level, given the most recent forecasts.  $89 million this summer, $108 million in 2017, $100 million in 2018, and $102 million in 2019.  It's not like it's returning to the current year of $70 million, or last year's $63 million.  And those are also conservative projections by the NBA.  When they were forecast, the cap this season was supposed to be $67 million, instead of the $70 million that it actually became three months later.  It's rather unlikely there will be a significant cap contraction.

That's a relief. I thought it was going way back down. We'd probably still be forced to make painful decisions with a player like Barnes taking up 1/5th to 1/4th of our cap space. I can already hear the lament, "We'd be able to ________ if we hadn't signed Barnes."

Given all the cap space that will be available to many teams, barring Barnes completely being a bust, I'm fairly sure he will be tradable if a better option shows itself.  Furthermore, the prior two CBA negotiations have included an amnesty option.  If this one does as well, that would be another route if Barnes doesn't pan out and the C's need to spend money in a different way.  That said, given that IT, Bradley, and Smart all become free agents in 2018, a lot of resources may need to be spent to keep at least a couple of them around.  Accordingly, with or without Barnes, we're unlikely to have a lot of cap room in 2018 anyway (unless we let them walk).  It's really a question of whether or not you think the Celtics are going to be deprived of a better free agent in 2017 because we signed Barnes this year.  I think Barnes is good enough, and options should exist making him movable enough, that I'd rather not put all my eggs into the 2017 basket if signing Barnes (assuming we miss out on KD) is an option.

[Evantime34]

  This summer he might seem to be overpaid, but next summer, when players like Durant and Chris Paul will get $36 million, and Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry $31 million, $22 million doesn't seem nearly as unreasonable.  Next summer it wouldn't surprise me if Nerlens Noel gets the max of $25 million for his experience category.

It'll seem very unreasonable after the first two years of the contract when the cap goes back down in the summer of 2018. That's two years of getting Barnes at an extremely inflated "market rate", and then two years of a massive, cap-choking overpay.

Noel is actually excellent at something.

The cap will still be above next year's level, given the most recent forecasts.  $89 million this summer, $108 million in 2017, $100 million in 2018, and $102 million in 2019.  It's not like it's returning to the current year of $70 million, or last year's $63 million.  And those are also conservative projections by the NBA.  When they were forecast, the cap this season was supposed to be $67 million, instead of the $70 million that it actually became three months later.  It's rather unlikely there will be a significant cap contraction.

That's a relief. I thought it was going way back down. We'd probably still be forced to make painful decisions with a player like Barnes taking up 1/5th to 1/4th of our cap space. I can already hear the lament, "We'd be able to ________ if we hadn't signed Barnes."

Think it could be worse. Could be, "We shouldn't have resigned Turner and Sully. We knew what they were."

Barnes all the way. Don't fall in love with the single G.S. win.

I think that is a great example. I'm not sure if I'd rather have Sully and Turner than Barnes.

If we moved on from Sully to sign Barnes we would need to sign someone else expensive. Moving on from Sully means we lose a ton of rebounding and our only player that can capably guard traditional 5's.

That being said, since Sully is a restricted free agent we can go over the cap to sign him, so signing Barnes, Turner and Sully isn't unrealistic.

[saltlover]

  This summer he might seem to be overpaid, but next summer, when players like Durant and Chris Paul will get $36 million, and Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry $31 million, $22 million doesn't seem nearly as unreasonable.  Next summer it wouldn't surprise me if Nerlens Noel gets the max of $25 million for his experience category.

It'll seem very unreasonable after the first two years of the contract when the cap goes back down in the summer of 2018. That's two years of getting Barnes at an extremely inflated "market rate", and then two years of a massive, cap-choking overpay.

Noel is actually excellent at something.

The cap will still be above next year's level, given the most recent forecasts.  $89 million this summer, $108 million in 2017, $100 million in 2018, and $102 million in 2019.  It's not like it's returning to the current year of $70 million, or last year's $63 million.  And those are also conservative projections by the NBA.  When they were forecast, the cap this season was supposed to be $67 million, instead of the $70 million that it actually became three months later.  It's rather unlikely there will be a significant cap contraction.

That's a relief. I thought it was going way back down. We'd probably still be forced to make painful decisions with a player like Barnes taking up 1/5th to 1/4th of our cap space. I can already hear the lament, "We'd be able to ________ if we hadn't signed Barnes."

Think it could be worse. Could be, "We shouldn't have resigned Turner and Sully. We knew what they were."

Barnes all the way. Don't fall in love with the single G.S. win.

I think that is a great example. I'm not sure if I'd rather have Sully and Turner than Barnes.

If we moved on from Sully to sign Barnes we would need to sign someone else expensive. Moving on from Sully means we lose a ton of rebounding and our only player that can capably guard traditional 5's.

That being said, since Sully is a restricted free agent we can go over the cap to sign him, so signing Barnes, Turner and Sully isn't unrealistic.

Your last sentence is the important point.  Barnes does not exclude Sullinger, for those who'd like to keep him.  The cost of signing KD and Horford is approximately the same cost as Horford, Barnes, and Sully's cap hold.  So if we can sign Horford and KD, we can sign Horford, Barnes, and Sully.  Turner is a different story in either scenario of two max free agents, since we only have Early Bird rights and he's an unrestricted free agent.  He could get really expensive depending on other teams' offers.  But Barnes and Sully are not mutually exclusive.

[timpiker]

I hope the Knicks pay Barnes a max contract.