Here's the whole thing. Interesting how guys who were top-5 at one point (Skal, Brown, even Dunn or Poeltl at one point or another) have fallen. Ellenson has been kind of a stealth climber.
Mike
We are down to the Final Four in the NCAA tournament and have just two weeks left in the NBA season. It's time for another Mock Draft update.
Over the course of the past month, our Big Board has continued to shift, as has the draft order.
Once again, we'll be using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) projected records to determine draft order.
Remember, mock drafts don't determine where a player should go, but rather what each team in the draft would likely do with its pick.
Here's our latest full first-round mock draft (assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state his intentions on the draft declares), after taking into account team needs, based on our discussions with NBA scouts and general managers.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons
LSU
Freshman
Forward
The Sixers are a lock to have the most combinations on lottery night at this point. That's still only a 25 percent chance at the top pick (in addition to Sacramento's 4.3 percent chance, thanks to a pick swap that Philadelphia can use), but it's the best hope the Sixers have had in a while.
2016 NBA draft
Get ready for Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram and the 2016 draft with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.
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Who's in, who's out of the draft?
Simmons has been atop their board all year, but the Sixers have one of the front offices that has been wavering a bit lately. Brandon Ingram is a better fit with their current roster, and there are concerns on a team without an alpha that Simmons' laid-back demeanor might not bring the fire needed to reignite the franchise.
Ingram's shooting and aggressiveness are appealing. For now, though, Simmons stays here. The Sixers need a point guard and feel coach Brett Brown has the chops to use Simmons as a primary creator.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 25 percent, 11-71
2. Los Angeles Lakers*
Brandon Ingram
Duke
Freshman
Forward
Lakers fans can breathe a sigh of relief for the time being, as their team will finish with the second-worst record in the league.
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Mock draft: Lakers take Ben Simmons No. 1?
Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton played our NBA lottery mock draft generator and the Lakers drew the No. 1 pick. See who our Insiders select for every team in the top 10.
The Lakers must send this pick to the 76ers if it falls to fourth or lower in the lottery. Finishing with the second-worst record gives them a 56 percent chance of keeping their draft pick. A huge part of the rebuild depends on that 56 percent coming through.
Either Simmons or Ingram would be fantastic. Ingram, especially, seems like a great fit. He fills a need and has star-type potential. With D'Angelo Russell on very shaky ground in L.A., the Lakers desperately need a savior. Ingram is thin and inconsistent, but the star talent is there.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 19.9 percent, 17-65
3. Phoenix Suns
Dragan Bender
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center
In the wake of the Markieff Morris trade, Bender seems like an obvious fit. He has started getting regular minutes at Maccabi again at just the right time. He had 11 points and shot 3-for-5 from the 3 line in a recent game against Maccabi Ashdod.
While there's some risk here, most scouts believe he is the third-best prospect in this draft and could be in the same tier with Simmons and Ingram if he develops.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 15.6 percent, 22-60
4. Boston Celtics*
Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Right now, it looks like this pick from Brooklyn is starting at the fourth spot, with an 11.9 percent chance of winning the lottery. Obviously, the Celtics would love if this were a top-three pick, but there are some great options here if they fall to the fourth or fifth pick.
Boston could really use a shooter in its backcourt and would have a tough decision to make between Murray and Buddy Hield. While Hield's a better player now, Murray is three years younger and can play point guard.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Nets): 11.9 percent, 23-59
5. Minnesota Timberwolves*
Henry Ellenson
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center
Hield would be very tempting here for the Timberwolves. They could use more shooting, and Hield is instant offense. However, I keep hearing they are very high on Ellenson.
He fits a need at the 4, has the ability to stretch the floor and looks like a great fit next to Karl-Anthony Towns. Also, he's three years younger than Hield. That matters to NBA folks. If he starts hitting 3s at a higher clip, he's going to be very, very good.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 8.8 percent, 27-55
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard
Hield will start getting looks as high as No. 4, and I doubt he slips further than either the Pelicans or the Kings at No. 7.
Eric Gordon is a free agent this summer, Anthony Davis could really use a sniper on the perimeter and, given the entire direction of the Pelicans, I think they want an NBA-ready player. With coach Alvin Gentry running this offense, I think it's the perfect fit for Hield and the New Orleans.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 6.3 percent, 32-50
7. Sacramento Kings*
Kris Dunn
Providence
Junior
Guard
The Kings will be pining for either Hield or Murray to fall to them. They could use a shooter, and both Hield and Murray are good culture guys -- fierce competitors with great team-first reputations on and off the court. But if they are both gone, there are still some good choices.
Dunn is a dynamic point guard who could take over the reins if Rajon Rondo leaves. Marquese Chriss could give the Kings a stretch 4 who allows them to move Rudy Gay. And Jaylen Brown is the best athlete of the group. It's a bit of a toss-up this early in the process.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 4.3 percent, 33-49 (if this happens, the No. 1 pick goes to Philadelphia in a pick swap)
8. Denver Nuggets*
Jaylen Brown
Cal
Freshman
Forward
Grabbing Brown this late in the lottery feels like a steal.
I understand ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton's concerns about him -- statistically, he looks like a bust -- but he's an elite athlete with an NBA body who was playing out of position on a Cal team that couldn't space the floor. He'll be a better pro than a college player.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Knicks): 2.8 percent, 33-49
9. Toronto Raptors*
Marquese Chriss
Washington
Freshman
Forward
The Raptors' biggest hole is at power forward, and general manager Masai Ujiri has never been shy about swinging for the fences.
Chriss has as much upside as anyone in the draft not named Simmons or Ingram. He's an athletic big who can shoot and protect the rim. He would be a great fit in Toronto, as long as fans can be patient. Chriss is inconsistent, and there is some bust potential.
But he's worth the risk here.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Nuggets): 1.7 percent, 34-48
10. Milwaukee Bucks
Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Sophomore
Center
The Bucks' defense has suffered a bit this year with Greg Monroe as a full-time center. You can expect the team to explore Monroe trade options this summer.
But even if Milwaukee can't move him, the team will be a fan of Poeltl. He is mobile, has great hands and should be a good defender as he gets stronger.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 1.1 percent, 34-48
11. Orlando Magic
Ivan Rabb
Cal
Freshman
Forward/center
Rabb really came on late in the season. There is some significant upside here as he gets stronger. He has already developed a solid midrange game, and it looks like there is the talent to expand that range.
The Magic are already loaded at the 4. Both Aaron Gordon and Andrew Nicholson are having good seasons. But Rabb gives them more depth, and he should be able to take some center minutes, eventually.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.8 percent, 35-47
12. Boston Celtics*
Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
After grabbing a shooter with their first pick, the Celtics could really use some frontcourt athleticism here with a top-seven protected pick from Dallas. (If this pick lands in the top three in the lottery, it stays with Dallas this year.)
Davis is a terrific athlete and shot blocker, but that's not all. His midrange game is coming along. He's a raw prospect, but he would be a great long-term fit in Boston.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (Dallas): 0.7 percent, 40-42
13. Phoenix Suns*
Furkan Korkmaz
Turkey
Age: 18
Shooting guard
(This is a top-nine protected pick from Washington via the Markieff Morris trade. If the pick moves into the top nine, the Wizards will keep it this year.)
Korkmaz could probably go three or four spots higher if teams needed a shooting guard. With Brandon Knight, Eric Bledsoe and rookie Devin Booker taking up most of the minutes in Phoenix's backcourt, the Suns probably won't need help there either.
Still, Korkmaz is too talented to slip much further, and given the plethora of picks Phoenix holds, the Suns could afford to keep him in Turkey another year until they figure out space for him.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (Washington): 0.6 percent, 40-42
14. Chicago Bulls
Tyler Ulis
Kentucky
Sophomore
Guard
The Bulls have several needs, but point guard seems to be the most pressing. Yes, they might still holding onto hope that Derrick Rose can still be the guy, but they really need help behind him.
Ulis is small -- but, man, can he play. He has terrific court vision and speed and a great feel for the game. As a backup to Rose, he'd be perfect in Chicago.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.5 percent, 41-41
15. Denver Nuggets*
Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
Freshman
Center/forward
Labissiere is a big risk no matter where you take him. His performance as a freshman at Kentucky was below expectations. He lacked toughness and seemed lost.
However, the talent is there. He has great size and an ability to stretch the floor that occasionally showed toward the end of Kentucky's season. The Nuggets can afford to take the risk here, especially since they have extra lottery picks.
Projected record (via Rockets): 41-41
16. Utah Jazz
Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
Valentine feels like the perfect Jazz player -- a high-IQ, high-character, multipositional college veteran who can produce in a number of ways.
I think he comes in and contributes right away for a team like Utah.
Projected record: 41-41
17. Denver Nuggets*
Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
Sabonis has been terrific all year. While he's not a sexy player -- he's not an elite athlete and doesn't stretch the floor -- he is a great rebounder and a skilled low-post player, and he has a super high basketball IQ.
Projected record (via Blazers): 43-39
18. Detroit Pistons
Diamond Stone
Maryland
Freshman
Center
Stone is a low-post beast who can score in a variety of ways. As he continued to work on his conditioning, he would have a chance of being a very nice complement to Andre Drummond on the Pistons' front line.
Projected record: 43-39
19. Memphis Grizzlies*
Timothe Luwawu
France
Age: 20
Guard/forward
Luwawu has been terrific this season in Serbia. He's getting big minutes and putting up terrific numbers. He's a 3-and-D-type player who has the physical tools to make a pretty quick impact in the league.
He should be a good fit on a Memphis team that has some holes to fill at the wing this summer.
Projected record: 43-39
20. Indiana Pacers
Demetrius Jackson
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard
Jackson had an up-and-down junior season. His scoring and playmaking increased with the departure of Jerian Grant, but his efficiency has taken a bit of a hit.
Still, teams love his athleticism, toughness, defense and aggressiveness. He is a warrior and should be a nice backup to George Hill in Indiana.
Projected record: 43-39
21. Charlotte Hornets
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin have been holding down the fort well in Charlotte, but Baldwin can bring more size and strength and a terrific 3-point shot.
Projected record: 47-35
22. Philadelphia 76ers*
Dejounte Murray
Washington
Freshman
Guard
We've had a run on point guards over the past few picks, but none of them has the same upside as Murray. He's got great size, toughness and a knack for seeing the floor. He also can be wild, and his jump shot is erratic.
Murray has bust potential, but he also carries some of the ingredients to be a star at the next level if he develops. That's exactly the type of player the Sixers need to find right now.
Projected record (via Heat): 47-35
23. Boston Celtics
Ante Zizic
Croatia
Age: 19
Center
Having already made two picks, the Celtics can start looking overseas here.
Zizic has a number of international scouts claiming he could be one of the steals of the draft. He is already an elite rebounder, an excellent athlete for his size and the perfect draft-and-stash candidate in this range.
Projected record: 47-35
24. Atlanta Hawks
Thomas Bryant
Indiana
Freshman
Center
Bryant is a load in the paint, and he has surprising range on his jump shot as well. He plays super hard and is going to have the strength and hands to be a good rebounder at the next level.
His lack of elite athleticism and speed are the biggest drawbacks right now. But the Hawks need size, and Bryant -- with his 7-foot-6 wingspan -- can bring it.
Projected record: 49-33
25. Los Angeles Clippers
DeAndre Bembry
St. Joseph's
Junior
Forward
Bembry is both athletic and a terrific playmaker at his size. His lack of a jump shot is the only thing from keeping him going much higher.
Still, his passing ability is so good at his size that he's tough to pass on. Big playmakers are all the rage these days in the NBA.
Projected record: 52-30
26. Toronto Raptors
Cheick Diallo
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
Diallo didn't really do much at Kansas this year, but that won't stop a team like the Raptors from grabbing him.
He is tough and athletic, and he might have the best motor in the draft. He's very, very raw. But had he stayed in school another year, he probably would have been a lottery pick. That makes him good value here.
Projected record: 55-27
27. Phoenix Suns *
Jonathan Jeanne
France
Age: 18
Center/forward
This is the third pick for the Suns, and Jeanne is worthy as a draft-and-stash pick. His size and length give him tremendous potential down the road.
He has a lot of work to do on his body, but he is worth being patient for.
Projected record (via Cavaliers): 57-25
28. Philadelphia 76ers*
Grayson Allen
Duke
Sophomore
Guard
After taking two athletic playmakers, the Sixers would need to address shooting.
Allen and Malik Beasley are both on the board at this point and are about the same size. Both are great athletes. And both can really shoot the rock.
But I think Allen's toughness puts him slightly ahead of Beasley.
Projected record (via Thunder): 57-25
29. San Antonio Spurs
Ben Bentil
Providence
Sophomore
Forward
Bentil is a major sleeper. I think he's going to be tremendous as long as he measures out well at the combine. He can score from anywhere and plays with great energy and enthusiasm.
He could improve his rebounding, but he looks like a Spur.
Projected record: 68-14
30. Golden State Warriors
Stephen Zimmerman
UNLV
Freshman
Center
Zimmerman isn't ready, but the Warriors won't care. He's skilled as both a passer and shooter, and that would make him a great fit.
He needs to add a lot of strength, but he's a good prospect to have down the road.
Projected record: 73-9
