Zach Lowe: C's low-balled cavs for Love at the deadline

[celticsclay]

You still want to declare their season better than ours?

The Hawks are 1.5 games up with 7 games remaining, and they're 9-1 over the last 10.  They have the 2nd best defense in the league.  Their point differential is 4.0 compared to 3.4 for the Celts.

The Hawks also have more experience and a better track record of success in the playoffs (i.e. they've actually won playoff games with this group).

So yeah, I'm pretty confident that at the end of the day, the Hawks will have had an objectively "better" season than the Celts.

It's possible it goes the other way, but it seems to me that it's more likely for the Hawks.  The point being, that it's not a simple conclusion to reach that Horford would look at Boston as such a vastly superior situation to the one he's already in. 

If the Hawks offer 5 years at the max, I wouldn't be surprised to see Horford take that offer before seriously considering anybody else.  If they balk at offering him quite that much, given his age and potential for decline, the Celts will have a pretty good shot at signing him, but I stand by my conviction that it'll require offering him 4 years at the max to make it happen, since plenty of other teams will be chasing him as well.

A lot of the stats you are basing this Hawks better season on have occurred in the last ten games. Before the Hawks went on their hot ten game streak while the Celtics have stagnated due to injury, the Celtics were the better team, though not by a lot. The Hawks got hot and the C's cooled so the Hawks are now the statistically better team, though not by a lot. To be honest, regardless of who has the better record, which I don't see being different by more than a game or so, I think it's pretty easy to say that both teams probably had equally good seasons.

Yea pretty much. Was our point differential pretty close to even with theirs before the last 24 game blowout to the Clippers? By my math we would have had an equal or better point per game differential prior to that. I also believe we were above them for the majority of the last 30 games, so it seems pretty weak/cherry picking to act like they are clearly better than us when we hit a bit of a rough spot with Crowder out. Also while winning 9 out of 10 games is always impressive only 4 of those games came against likely playoff teams (Pistons twice and Pacers once and the beat up Grizz). We meanwhile have had 4 games against better teams than anyone they have played in Toronto twice (though once without Lowry), at LA and versus Oklahoma city plus the lower level teams like the pacers and rockets and beat up griz. If they win 3 out of 4 in their 4 games against Cleveland and Toronto (with most people playing) I would give them the nod of being a bit better than them. However, at this point in time with both teams upcoming schedule this is real premature and (needlessly) pessimistic.

[jambr380]

You still want to declare their season better than ours?

The Hawks are 1.5 games up with 7 games remaining, and they're 9-1 over the last 10.  They have the 2nd best defense in the league.  Their point differential is 4.0 compared to 3.4 for the Celts.

The Hawks also have more experience and a better track record of success in the playoffs (i.e. they've actually won playoff games with this group).

So yeah, I'm pretty confident that at the end of the day, the Hawks will have had an objectively "better" season than the Celts.

It's possible it goes the other way, but it seems to me that it's more likely for the Hawks.  The point being, that it's not a simple conclusion to reach that Horford would look at Boston as such a vastly superior situation to the one he's already in. 

If the Hawks offer 5 years at the max, I wouldn't be surprised to see Horford take that offer before seriously considering anybody else.  If they balk at offering him quite that much, given his age and potential for decline, the Celts will have a pretty good shot at signing him, but I stand by my conviction that it'll require offering him 4 years at the max to make it happen, since plenty of other teams will be chasing him as well.

I guess one thing to consider here is that if the Hawks and Cs are about even with Horford on the Hawks (and not on the Cs), wouldn't it be reasonable to conclude - in his mind - that if he joined the Cs, we would be considerably better than the Hawks? I guess it really depends on what kind-of impact he thinks he makes now / can make on another team.

[PhoSita]

You still want to declare their season better than ours?

The Hawks are 1.5 games up with 7 games remaining, and they're 9-1 over the last 10.  They have the 2nd best defense in the league.  Their point differential is 4.0 compared to 3.4 for the Celts.

The Hawks also have more experience and a better track record of success in the playoffs (i.e. they've actually won playoff games with this group).

So yeah, I'm pretty confident that at the end of the day, the Hawks will have had an objectively "better" season than the Celts.

It's possible it goes the other way, but it seems to me that it's more likely for the Hawks.  The point being, that it's not a simple conclusion to reach that Horford would look at Boston as such a vastly superior situation to the one he's already in. 

If the Hawks offer 5 years at the max, I wouldn't be surprised to see Horford take that offer before seriously considering anybody else.  If they balk at offering him quite that much, given his age and potential for decline, the Celts will have a pretty good shot at signing him, but I stand by my conviction that it'll require offering him 4 years at the max to make it happen, since plenty of other teams will be chasing him as well.

I guess one thing to consider here is that if the Hawks and Cs are about even with Horford on the Hawks (and not on the Cs), wouldn't it be reasonable to conclude - in his mind - that if he joined the Cs, we would be considerably better than the Hawks? I guess it really depends on what kind-of impact he thinks he makes now / can make on another team.

My perspective on this is that I think players don't tend to leave situations that are pretty good unless the situation they're leaving for is a clear cut upgrade -- in terms of coaching, regular season success, playoff chops, or media market. 

I think that a team's prospects for the future plays some role in that, but it seems to me that players tend to think more short-term, especially when they've got maybe 2-3 years left playing at peak form, which is the situation Horford is in now.

The Celts have had a nice season, but the Hawks have also had a nice season, despite some bad luck with injuries and difficulty adjusting after Carroll left.  Last year, they had a much better season than the Celts have had since before KG and Pierce left, even with their underwhelming showing in the ECF.

All of that is true regardless of which side you come down on in the "Whose season was better?" argument.  Bottom line, the teams are pretty close.

I don't think the Celts will be a major "upgrade" over the situation in Atlanta for Horford unless they add another superior player first (i.e. a perennial All-Star type).

I could see Horford leaving Atlanta for Boston even without another star joining the Celts first, but only if the Hawks are reluctant to offer him a max deal and the Celts pony up as much money as they possibly can.

This doesn't strike me as an extreme position to take.

[celticsclay]

You still want to declare their season better than ours?

The Hawks are 1.5 games up with 7 games remaining, and they're 9-1 over the last 10.  They have the 2nd best defense in the league.  Their point differential is 4.0 compared to 3.4 for the Celts.

The Hawks also have more experience and a better track record of success in the playoffs (i.e. they've actually won playoff games with this group).

So yeah, I'm pretty confident that at the end of the day, the Hawks will have had an objectively "better" season than the Celts.

It's possible it goes the other way, but it seems to me that it's more likely for the Hawks.  The point being, that it's not a simple conclusion to reach that Horford would look at Boston as such a vastly superior situation to the one he's already in. 

If the Hawks offer 5 years at the max, I wouldn't be surprised to see Horford take that offer before seriously considering anybody else.  If they balk at offering him quite that much, given his age and potential for decline, the Celts will have a pretty good shot at signing him, but I stand by my conviction that it'll require offering him 4 years at the max to make it happen, since plenty of other teams will be chasing him as well.

I guess one thing to consider here is that if the Hawks and Cs are about even with Horford on the Hawks (and not on the Cs), wouldn't it be reasonable to conclude - in his mind - that if he joined the Cs, we would be considerably better than the Hawks? I guess it really depends on what kind-of impact he thinks he makes now / can make on another team.

My perspective on this is that I think players don't tend to leave situations that are pretty good unless the situation they're leaving for is a clear cut upgrade -- in terms of coaching, regular season success, playoff chops, or media market. 

I think that a team's prospects for the future plays some role in that, but it seems to me that players tend to think more short-term, especially when they've got maybe 2-3 years left playing at peak form, which is the situation Horford is in now.

The Celts have had a nice season, but the Hawks have also had a nice season, despite some bad luck with injuries and difficulty adjusting after Carroll left.  Last year, they had a much better season than the Celts have had since before KG and Pierce left, even with their underwhelming showing in the ECF.

All of that is true regardless of which side you come down on in the "Whose season was better?" argument.  Bottom line, the teams are pretty close.

I don't think the Celts will be a major "upgrade" over the situation in Atlanta for Horford unless they add another superior player first (i.e. a perennial All-Star type).

I could see Horford leaving Atlanta for Boston even without another star joining the Celts first, but only if the Hawks are reluctant to offer him a max deal and the Celts pony up as much money as they possibly can.

This doesn't strike me as an extreme position to take.

Phosita, I wasn't really saying you were taking an extreme position (especially with comparing the futures of both teams), just that declaring the Hawks have had a more successful this season right now really seems to be a bit of cherry picking, especially when you throw in the point differential stat when we have been leading them in that category for the majority of the year and probably were until 2-3 games ago (we would have lost .3 from the clippers debacle alone) (reminds me Larbrd's lottery watch post the one day we were not in playoff positioning in january).

If you look at their final 7 games (assuming no crazy resting on either side)
They are a pick em in toronto tonight (will be slight underdogs if Lowry plays)
They will be a pick em or slight dog at home against Cavs
Huge favorites at home against Sun
Slight favorite at home against Raptors
Slight favorite at home against Boston
Big underdog at Cleveland
moderate favorite on road against Wizards

Even playing pretty solid ball they could easily go 3-4 in that stretch.
Considering one of those games is against us and a loss would split the season series
declaring the race when we have one more loss seems really premature and pessimistic (especially when it appears we are getting crowder back)

[PhoSita]

Phosita, I wasn't really saying you were taking an extreme position (especially with comparing the futures of both teams), just that declaring the Hawks have had a more successful this season right now really seems to be a bit of cherry picking

....


Considering one of those games is against us and a loss would split the season series
declaring the race when we have one more loss seems really premature and pessimistic (especially when it appears we are getting crowder back)

Look, it seems like you're really fixating on this "they had a better season than us" thing, when my original intention was not to make a major stand on that point.  I'm not really invested in it.

Mostly I was just pointing out that hey, despite all of the positive, triumphant talk about the Celts through most of this season, and all of the talk basically treating the Hawks as if they were a dead franchise around the trade deadline, there's a really good chance the Hawks will end up having had an objectively "better" overall season than the Celts.

Even if they don't, or if you want to hedge by saying the Celts were better most of the way, or what have you, the point is that the teams are close, and I don't regard Horford as the type of player who's going to be itching to jump ship.

Remember, the Hawks are the only team Horford's ever played for, plus they have one of the best coaches in the league, a system that's proven to work, and a group of guys who have won playoff series together. 

It's hard to believe he's going to leave that simply because the Celts look like they might be set up better for the long haul, when Horford only has a few years left in his prime in any case.

I bring all of this up because I think that there's a tendency around here to assume that potential FAs see the Celts with the same rosy / green-tinted outlook that we all do, while disregarding what other teams (especially the teams these guys are already on) have to offer.  This plays into the annual summertime disappointment when enticing free agents sign elsewhere, or stay where they are now.

I think the Celts will have a shot with some of the bigger name free agents this summer, but they will have to be prepared to make a maximum offer (i.e. probably overpay), and getting the biggest names will probably require upgrading the roster significantly via trade or the draft beforehand.

[celticsclay]

Phosita, I wasn't really saying you were taking an extreme position (especially with comparing the futures of both teams), just that declaring the Hawks have had a more successful this season right now really seems to be a bit of cherry picking

....


Considering one of those games is against us and a loss would split the season series
declaring the race when we have one more loss seems really premature and pessimistic (especially when it appears we are getting crowder back)

Look, it seems like you're really fixating on this "they had a better season than us" thing, when my original intention was not to make a major stand on that point.  I'm not really invested in it.

Mostly I was just pointing out that hey, despite all of the positive, triumphant talk about the Celts through most of this season, and all of the talk basically treating the Hawks as if they were a dead franchise around the trade deadline, there's a really good chance the Hawks will end up having had an objectively "better" overall season than the Celts.

Even if they don't, or if you want to hedge by saying the Celts were better most of the way, or what have you, the point is that the teams are close, and I don't regard Horford as the type of player who's going to be itching to jump ship.

Remember, the Hawks are the only team Horford's ever played for, plus they have one of the best coaches in the league, a system that's proven to work, and a group of guys who have won playoff series together. 

It's hard to believe he's going to leave that simply because the Celts look like they might be set up better for the long haul, when Horford only has a few years left in his prime in any case.

I bring all of this up because I think that there's a tendency around here to assume that potential FAs see the Celts with the same rosy / green-tinted outlook that we all do, while disregarding what other teams (especially the teams these guys are already on) have to offer.  This plays into the annual summertime disappointment when enticing free agents sign elsewhere, or stay where they are now.

I think the Celts will have a shot with some of the bigger name free agents this summer, but they will have to be prepared to make a maximum offer (i.e. probably overpay), and getting the biggest names will probably require upgrading the roster significantly via trade or the draft beforehand.

Ok with respect to the better season, the last thing I will say is I think you are smart enough to realize that listing the .6 point differential out as a reason they have had a better season than us on one of the few days it was true in the last 3 months was kind of weak sauce. If that is not your main point that is fine.

I think we could theoretically agree to disagree how much players take into account looking at a team's age and future when deciding to switch teams. It seems like that had to be at least half the reason (the other being the going home narrative) that Lebron left cleveland. He saw Bosh and Wade and the other role players were entering the early 30's and starting to decline and had a chance to play with guys just entering their prime in Irving (and presumably Love). If we want to go back a bit further you David West specifically pointed this out as a reason he went to the Pacers rather than the Celtics during the back half of the big 3 era. While I admit we regularly see veterans join very veteran and old teams at the end of their career (like a 38 year old west to the spurs), Horford at 29 would seem to be too young to not think about how the next two to three years will play out beyond the upcoming season.

Of the Hawks mainstays Korver is very near the end (35 years old), Milsap and Thefalosha are also 31 and their best two young players (Teague 27 and Schroeder 22) play the same position. They have Splitter on the books for 8.5 million next season also and it is unclear how big a role he can even play.
You add into the fact that the Hawks seemingly publicly considered blowing it up this trade season and it doesn't seem like green colored glasses to say we are two franchises headed in different directions right now (and this even mentioning that we most likely have a top 5 pick coming that has more value in a trade than the majority of their roster).

 

[Lucky17]

Hawks could resign Horford under the premise that they'll continue to compete in the East. And also give him the most money.

ATL can move Teague or Schroeder this summer for additional upgrades. They should also get back an improved Splitter next season.

I think it's a pessimistic view to consider ATL poised for a downward spiral after this season. BOS is not necessarily a better landing spot for Horford.

[jambr380]

Hawks could resign Horford under the premise that they'll continue to compete in the East. And also give him the most money.

ATL can move Teague or Schroeder this summer for additional upgrades. They should also get back an improved Splitter next season.

I think it's a pessimistic view to consider ATL poised for a downward spiral after this season. BOS is not necessarily a better landing spot for Horford.

Boston is definitely a better landing spot - Boston minus Horford is currently equal to Atl with him. If he comes to our team, we should certainly improve; but as Pho, pointed out, he may not see it as 'vastly superior.'

And the Hawks probably aren't in a downward spiral to oblivion, but they seemed to have peaked and their key contributors are aging. Boston, on the other hand, has young up and coming players, plenty of cap space, and better assets/picks to use in a trade. Listening to the glowing reviews by the Clips announcers the other night (while we were getting destroyed) showed me a little bit of the general feeling about the Cs right now and in the future. It's something to be excited about.

[Lucky17]

Hawks could resign Horford under the premise that they'll continue to compete in the East. And also give him the most money.

ATL can move Teague or Schroeder this summer for additional upgrades. They should also get back an improved Splitter next season.

I think it's a pessimistic view to consider ATL poised for a downward spiral after this season. BOS is not necessarily a better landing spot for Horford.

Boston is definitely a better landing spot - Boston minus Horford is currently equal to Atl with him. If he comes to our team, we should certainly improve; but as Pho, pointed out, he may not see it as 'vastly superior.'

And the Hawks probably aren't in a downward spiral to oblivion, but they seemed to have peaked and their key contributors are aging. Boston, on the other hand, has young up and coming players, plenty of cap space, and better assets/picks to use in a trade. Listening to the glowing reviews by the Clips announcers the other night (while we were getting destroyed) showed me a little bit of the general feeling about the Cs right now and in the future. It's something to be excited about.

I disagree. To you, it may be.

If Horford is given a 5th year by ATL, it means they are committed to fielding a competitive team in the East. Horford will have to weigh that against Boston's lesser financial offer.

[celticsclay]

Hawks could resign Horford under the premise that they'll continue to compete in the East. And also give him the most money.

ATL can move Teague or Schroeder this summer for additional upgrades. They should also get back an improved Splitter next season.

I think it's a pessimistic view to consider ATL poised for a downward spiral after this season. BOS is not necessarily a better landing spot for Horford.

I mean what is the path there? Maybe they can rebuild on the fly but their key contributors aside from the point guards are all 31 or older. Let's not forget that Korver was an all-star last season (perhaps not deserved, but he had a great season). This year he is a below average starter. You couple that with the loss of Carroll and no really developing prospects on their roster and it is hard to paint a path to championship competition. Also, if they resign him for the max they will have committed over 50 million a year to Splitter, Millsap and Horford next season. I'm not sure the Hawks would even want to do that.

[spikelovetheCelts]

Hawks could resign Horford under the premise that they'll continue to compete in the East. And also give him the most money.

ATL can move Teague or Schroeder this summer for additional upgrades. They should also get back an improved Splitter next season.

I think it's a pessimistic view to consider ATL poised for a downward spiral after this season. BOS is not necessarily a better landing spot for Horford.

Atlanta is 12-2 since Kris Humphries has added toughness. Hardaway has stepped up as well. They are going be hard to beat in Playoffs. They should get some assets when they trade a PG. The C have a brighter future but Atl will be ok. Plus they will have money to sign some and may have to go with Dwight if they Lose Bazemore and Holford.
I mean what is the path there? Maybe they can rebuild on the fly but their key contributors aside from the point guards are all 31 or older. Let's not forget that Korver was an all-star last season (perhaps not deserved, but he had a great season). This year he is a below average starter. You couple that with the loss of Carroll and no really developing prospects on their roster and it is hard to paint a path to championship competition. Also, if they resign him for the max they will have committed over 50 million a year to Splitter, Millsap and Horford next season. I'm not sure the Hawks would even want to do that.

[Lucky17]

Hawks could resign Horford under the premise that they'll continue to compete in the East. And also give him the most money.

ATL can move Teague or Schroeder this summer for additional upgrades. They should also get back an improved Splitter next season.

I think it's a pessimistic view to consider ATL poised for a downward spiral after this season. BOS is not necessarily a better landing spot for Horford.

I mean what is the path there? Maybe they can rebuild on the fly but their key contributors aside from the point guards are all 31 or older. Let's not forget that Korver was an all-star last season (perhaps not deserved, but he had a great season). This year he is a below average starter. You couple that with the loss of Carroll and no really developing prospects on their roster and it is hard to paint a path to championship competition. Also, if they resign him for the max they will have committed over 50 million a year to Splitter, Millsap and Horford next season. I'm not sure the Hawks would even want to do that.

That's the big question: whether ATL is ready to commit to resigning Horford. I agree, I'm not sure they will either. But if they do, they can field a compelling roster next year.

ATL can bring back the same core that's won their division for two straight years. Maybe they decide to move Teague (say, to UTA) for improved draft position to get another young player to pair with Schroeder. They have Bird Rights for Bazemore, who's had a strong season. Those three players could be the next generation of Hawks players. They also have an intriguing big man prospect in Tavares. Tim Hardaway might actually be a credible bench player, too.

Meanwhile, the older half of the roster still produces. Millsap is one of the most efficient and talented PFs in the league. Sefolosha is still a very good wing defender, and Korver's bounced back from those injuries that plagued him: he's shooting around 45%/40% from the field since the new year. I think he'll age fine.

Entirely possible that Hawks' management decides they can't justify big money to Horford, and elect to blow it up this season. I'm not saying that can't happen. But I can see them decide to retool a little bit -- enough to persuade Horford to stay.

[greece66]

Hawks could resign Horford under the premise that they'll continue to compete in the East. And also give him the most money.

ATL can move Teague or Schroeder this summer for additional upgrades. They should also get back an improved Splitter next season.

I think it's a pessimistic view to consider ATL poised for a downward spiral after this season. BOS is not necessarily a better landing spot for Horford.

I mean what is the path there? Maybe they can rebuild on the fly but their key contributors aside from the point guards are all 31 or older. Let's not forget that Korver was an all-star last season (perhaps not deserved, but he had a great season). This year he is a below average starter. You couple that with the loss of Carroll and no really developing prospects on their roster and it is hard to paint a path to championship competition. Also, if they resign him for the max they will have committed over 50 million a year to Splitter, Millsap and Horford next season. I'm not sure the Hawks would even want to do that.

That's the big question: whether ATL is ready to commit to resigning Horford. I agree, I'm not sure they will either. But if they do, they can field a compelling roster next year.

ATL can bring back the same core that's won their division for two straight years. Maybe they decide to move Teague (say, to UTA) for improved draft position to get another young player to pair with Schroeder. They have Bird Rights for Bazemore, who's had a strong season. Those three players could be the next generation of Hawks players. They also have an intriguing big man prospect in Tavares. Tim Hardaway might actually be a credible bench player, too.

Meanwhile, the older half of the roster still produces. Millsap is one of the most efficient and talented PFs in the league. Sefolosha is still a very good wing defender, and Korver's bounced back from those injuries that plagued him: he's shooting around 45%/40% from the field since the new year. I think he'll age fine.

Entirely possible that Hawks' management decides they can't justify big money to Horford, and elect to blow it up this season. I'm not saying that can't happen. But I can see them decide to retool a little bit -- enough to persuade Horford to stay.

Nice post Lucky.

Problem is that either path their front office chooses, ATL is unlikely to become a contender any time soon. This was the situation they risked ending up with due to the 'good, but not good enough'  approach they adopted a couple of years ago.

IMO the most likely scenario is they keep their core and try to convince Horford to stay. This will give them a good shot to a top 4 seed for the next few years, but with little hope of becoming a contender. It sounds bad, but actually teams can do much worse than that.