Yet another dissapointment in Marcus Smart thread (Bob Ryan comments)

[alldaboston]

He has developed a nice mid range jumper, especially out of a PnR.  His midrange looks effortless, it's very smooth and nice from what I've seen. It's the three that's been bad.

[jambr380]

Danny needs to STOP drafting guards--it's really insane when you look at all the quality big men he has passed up since he took over---get Somebody in who knows how to evaluate talent---let Danny make trades....He's known as Trader Danny--and not Drafter Danny for a reason.

I think/hope Brad has a big role in making the picks.

That being said, both Kelly and Sully have been nice picks for big men. Going way back Big Baby Davis and Big Al were both good picks as well. Hes missed a bunch (Jajuan Johnson, Fab Melo) but I think hes been alright at evaluating bigs.

Perkins and Powe, as well (for where the Cs were drafting).

But I think the criticism is that he doesn't draft enough big guys, not that he doesn't draft them at all. Fab is difficult to remove from one's mind, though.

[Dino Pitino]

Smart's return to poor shooting is definitely disappointing, but only in the sense of having to wait longer to see him become a consistent good shooter. No one should be permanently declaring him a bad shooter. His stretch of great shooting this season was not a random fluke. It was a clear demonstration of potential. He's still figuring things out. He'll get it soon enough.

I'm curious what qualifies for a "stretch of great shooting" in your mind. Marcus Smart make 40% from the field for a month. Heck, he is yet to shoot 45% in three consecutive games this season.... or any season, for that matter.

I'm guessing the "great stretch" is February, when he managed to simply be not completely awful from three (.327) -- yet somehow still stay below 40% from the field. Low bars, I guess.

Dividing stretches according to month names is arbitrary. Just as valid is to take any dozen or so consecutive games, regardless of the calendar. In the 13 games between 1/24 and 2/21, Smart shot 40.9% from three on over 5 attempts per game and 76.2% from the line on over 3 attempts per game. His TS% in that stretch was about...57.2%, which is pretty great for a guard, especially for him. If it helps you take that stretch seriously, just pretend when you're looking up his splits that there's an intermediate month called Jabruary or something.

That's fantastic. To be precise, he shot 19% overall from three over 5 of these games, and 48% in the other 8. Which part convinced you this was "not a random fluke"?

You were initially setting the bar at a rock bottom minimum of three games and saying Smart has never even passed that. You cited underwhelming monthly splits as a reason to be down on Smart, implying that you would've given Smart some amount of credit for an impressive monthly split. I gave you a stretch of games equivalent to a month where Smart shot well. Now you've dismissed the significance of any such stretch for any player if it isn't smoothly level game by game. I find goalpost-moving to be lame, but I have to admit I'm impressed by your willingness to throw the entire concept of monthly splits under the bus in order to keep Smart under the bus, too. But to answer your question, yes, that stretch convinced me that Smart has the ability to become a good shooter. Even by your new standard of precision, you don't shoot that well in 8 out of 13 games randomly. The potential to shoot well is there.

[kozlodoev]

You were initially setting the bar at a rock bottom minimum of three games and saying Smart has never even passed that. You cited underwhelming monthly splits as a reason to be down on Smart, implying that you would've given Smart some amount of credit for an impressive monthly split. I gave you a stretch of games equivalent to a month where Smart shot well. Now you've dismissed the significance of any such stretch for any player if it isn't smoothly level game by game. I find goalpost-moving to be lame, but I have to admit I'm impressed by your willingness to throw the entire concept of monthly splits under the bus in order to keep Smart under the bus, too.

I used a monthly split because it was the most readily available, reasonably sized sample. It's worth nothing that in picking a monthly split you don't get to cherry pick a specific number of games to maximize the observed average shooting percentages.

But I digress. The bottom line is that eight games of unsustainably high shooting is a clear fluke. More than a season of inability to string three good shooting games together is not. Which part of this is so hard to comprehend?

But to answer your question, yes, that stretch convinced me that Smart has the ability to become a good shooter. Even by your new standard of precision, you don't shoot that well in 8 out of 13 games randomly. The potential to shoot well is there.

I don't think you understand "random" (or "variance", for that matter) very well. But yes, anything is possible. Some things are just not very likely.

[Alleyoopster]

Maybe Rick Pitino was right...." all the negativity that's in this town s&@#s."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

Anyone for changing the name of this group to the "Celtic Flog"?

Seems every month there are  new 'let's-beat-on-this-particular-player-to-a-pulp' postings. I have to admit, at times, I'm just as guilty as others ...especially when talking about Danny. 

"Larry Bird is not walking through that door, fans. Kevin McHale is not walking through that door, and Robert Parish is not walking through that door. And if you expect them to walk through that door, they're going to be gray and old. What we are is young, exciting, hardworking, and we're going to improve. People don't realize that, and as soon as they realize those three guys are not coming through that door, the better this town will be for all of us because there are young guys in that (locker) room playing their asses off. I wish we had $90 million under the salary cap. I wish we could buy the world. We can't; the only thing we can do is work hard, and all the negativity that's in this town sucks. I've been around when Jim Rice was booed. I've been around when Yastrzemski was booed. And it stinks. It makes the greatest town, greatest city in the world, lousy. The only thing that will turn this around is being upbeat and positive like we are in that locker room ... and if you think I'm going to succumb to negativity, you're wrong. You've got the wrong guy leading this team."

[kozlodoev]

Yup, that worked out great for him

[Celtics18]

It's a lot for him to be learning how to play two NBA positions at such a young age.  I think it will end up being the right move long term, though.  It seems to me that Danny and Brad feel the same way.  That's why they have him doing it.

I understand what you're saying and I think to a large extent you're right, that's what they're trying to do.

Like I said above, though, Smart needs to increase expand his offensive game if he's going to become a significant part of the offense, which he'll need to do if he wants a large role long term.  I don't think we can expect him to suddenly turn into a 40% shooter.  His most plausible path to offensive respectability is getting inside and finishing, not taking at least half of his attempts from beyond the arc.  He needs to have the ball in his hands more to do that.  That's not gonna happen if he continues to spend all of his time playing beside Thomas or Turner.

Maybe not .400, but to maximize his potential, I think he's going to need to be at least a .340 three point shooter for his career.

I believe he has the stroke to get there.  I already know that there are others who strongly disagree.

I say, keep takin' em.  Be primarily a floor spreader off Evan and Isaiah for now.  Let the ball handling duties come incrementally.

[tankcity!]

I've been saying this and getting ripped on these boards. For the people putting throwing his advance statistics out there...If he is so good, why isn't he starting over Avery Bradley? He's a bench player right now and will be until his offense improves. The team did fine when he was injured too. Anyways, if he is so good at defense, why hasn't he made an all defensive team? Oh yeah, cause he doesn't freaking start. My god. Watch Bradley and Crowder make it, lol.

I can't believe I'm saying this but Tony Allen could actually turn out to be a better player. This will be a huge offseason for Smart.

[Celtics4ever]

Maybe Rick Pitino was right...." all the negativity that's in this town s&@#s."

No, he was a false hope, Slick Rick.

[tankcity!]

People forget how down everyone was on Avery Bradley his first couple of years in the league, and he showed a lot less than Smart has up to this point. 

Smart has already proven to be a difference maker.  The team is usually far better with him on the court than it is without him, despite what the box score might say.

He's already proven he can be a good rotation player on a playoff team, which is more than a lot of 22 year olds can say (including Terry Rozier and R.J. Hunter).

So you're happy if he turns out to be Avery Bradley?

[tankcity!]

All of his advanced numbers indicate that his team plays better with him on the court than off it, that he is in essence a net positive.

Sure his poor shooting is disappointing, but I don't think the situation is as dire as some on Celticsblog would indicate.

Since he's able to positively contribute while putting up terrible shooting numbers, if he ever simply becomes an average shooter he'll be a game changer.

This is a good article by Forsberg on Smart http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4722575/missing-the-point-marcus-smart-making-impact-despite-shooting-woes

But dismissing his offensive production based on his shooting stats alone is simply lazy. It ignores the fact that, in that same 16-game span, the Celtics are averaging 105.1 points per 100 possessions with Smart on the floor, which is 2.6 points better than Smart's offensive rating in 34 appearances before the All-Star break.

What's more, Smart's post-All-Star net rating of plus-2.7 ranks second on the team behind only Jae Crowder (plus-5.1), a player whose shoes Smart has tried to help fill while Crowder has been sidelined the past five games due to a high ankle sprain. As spectacular as All-Star Isaiah Thomas has been recently, even he's only plus-2.1 in net rating since the All-Star break.

So Forsberg is saying Smart is better than Thomas? I take advance statisitics with a grain of salt. Use your eyes man. The guy doesn't start. He lost his job...If he doesn't improve offensively, he will be nothing more than a role player.

[tankcity!]

Dividing stretches according to month names is arbitrary. Just as valid is to take any dozen or so consecutive games, regardless of the calendar.

Valid points.

I think we've got to see a stretch of 30-40 games, i.e. a significant chunk of a season, before we can feel confident about what Smart can do long term.


What we know right now is that through almost a season and a half worth of games in his young career, Smart is a 35% shooter overall, and 30% from three, with about half his career attempts coming from three point land.

I feel like I've been saying this forever, but if Smart can get to the line more (he gets there a few times a game this season, which is not bad) and increase the number of shots he takes in the paint so that his three point attempts are more like a third of his overall shot attempts, that could be a sustainable way for him to achieve offensive respectability. 

The increase in free throw attempts this year is encouraging in that regard.  I'm losing hope that he'll get to where he needs to be in terms of getting inside and finishing.

TP, pretty accurate assessment.

[Dino Pitino]

You were initially setting the bar at a rock bottom minimum of three games and saying Smart has never even passed that. You cited underwhelming monthly splits as a reason to be down on Smart, implying that you would've given Smart some amount of credit for an impressive monthly split. I gave you a stretch of games equivalent to a month where Smart shot well. Now you've dismissed the significance of any such stretch for any player if it isn't smoothly level game by game. I find goalpost-moving to be lame, but I have to admit I'm impressed by your willingness to throw the entire concept of monthly splits under the bus in order to keep Smart under the bus, too.

I used a monthly split because it was the most readily available, reasonably sized sample. It's worth nothing that in picking a monthly split you don't get to cherry pick a specific number of games to maximize the observed average shooting percentages.

Dude, be real, if his best stretch had coincided perfectly with the beginning and end of February and you wound up staring at a brilliant whole month of shooting on his splits page, you would probably be making the same point I made above about the arbitrariness of dividing stretchs by month.

But I digress. The bottom line is that eight games of unsustainably high shooting is a clear fluke. More than a season of inability to string three good shooting games together is not. Which part of this is so hard to comprehend?

Marcus Smart is not an algorithm. There isn't some hidden source code that determines his shooting ability which we only get to surmise after a certain amount of data reveals an outlier-neutralizing pattern. He's not a baseball hitter whose BABIP was "unsustainably high" because a bunch of dribblers sneak through. You don't shoot that well in basketball for that many games because of luck. You shoot that well for that many games because you can. If you are incapable of shooting well, you can't have a stretch like that. However you go on to consistently shoot is another matter. 13 games is 11% of his career so far. A larger sample would be nice, but it's still a meaningful sample. The potential is meaningless unless he can manage to make it reappear with some consistency. But it's there, is the point.

[clover]

He has developed a nice mid range jumper, especially out of a PnR.  His midrange looks effortless, it's very smooth and nice from what I've seen. It's the three that's been bad.

I don't know, Smart's hitting .424 from the 2. Only TRoz, still getting his sea legs has shot lower than that on the team.

[tankcity!]

I believe in Smart's potential, but if he turns out to be just a smaller Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (and hopefully not as injury-prone), then I'm fine with it. Guys like Smart and MKG may not be offensive juggernauts, but they do so many other good things for their teams.

MKG has a good mid range game, can finish, and is taller. He also makes more of an impact on D, and rebounds better. Look at MKG's FG% and compare it to Smart's. I wish people would research before making comps.